Checking in on the labor market... Here comes the SpaceX 'passive wave'... An America 250 shocker could be coming... What you should know about 'Project Hamilton'... Doc's tips to beat the heat wave...
Don't forget about the jobs...
We'll get to "Project Hamilton" in a moment, but first...
Two big narratives – the war in Iran and the AI boom – have driven a lot of headlines and market action this year. But we're keeping eyes on other important stories, too...
One is the general state of the labor market. Despite advances in AI and rising layoff announcements attributed to the technology, the jobs market continues to hold up, at least by the "official" numbers...
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' unemployment rate has come in at 4.3% for the past three months and is down a touch from 4.5% from November 2025.
And the freshest batch of jobs data – the May Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey ("JOLTS") report released this morning – showed openings holding steady around 7.6 million. "Total separations" – which includes layoffs and quits – changed little at 5.1 million.
Of course, these are headline numbers. You'll find details in different industries. But the health of the labor market (and what it implies about consumer spending and businesses' earnings power) has been underpinning the market amid a volatile year.
It's part of the reason why – amid rising inflation – the market increasingly expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. If the labor market remains healthy, the Fed will have more freedom to tackle inflation.
More key jobs reports are coming later this week... We'll see if the story remains the same.
Moving on, here comes the SpaceX 'passive wave'...
Just yesterday, SpaceX (SPCX) entered the Russell 1000 Index, which essentially measures the 1,000 largest publicly traded companies in the U.S.
And, as we've written in these pages and colleagues like Whitney Tilson and Gabe Marshank have detailed recently, SpaceX isn't stopping there...
SpaceX is already in the Nasdaq Composite Index alongside all the other 3,000-plus companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange.
But it's also about to join the more exclusive Nasdaq 100 Index, which holds 100 of the exchange's largest nonfinancial stocks. Normally, companies need to wait a while after going public before joining this index, which is tracked by the popular Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) fund. But as we wrote in the May 28 Digest, rules are changing for SpaceX...
The Nasdaq has already changed rules to allow SpaceX to be included in its indexes after only 15 trading days, if a company ranks among the top 40 by market cap in the Nasdaq 100 Index. That's down from the former span of three to 12 months.
At a market cap of $2.2 trillion as of today's close, SpaceX would be the Nasdaq 100's sixth-largest company... well inside the "top 40" criteria needed to be fast-tracked into the index. So SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday.
Now, because only about 5% of its shares trade publicly, SpaceX will likely get less than a 1% weighting in the Nasdaq 100. Indexes are weighting SpaceX by its float (available shares) rather than its market cap.
But even half a percent would still be plenty to pull in a 'wave' of passive funds...
When a stock gets included in a major index like the Nasdaq 100, then ETFs, mutual funds, and other passive investing products automatically buy up shares to match the benchmark.
As our Director of Research Matt Weinschenk explained in a recent special report for Total Portfolio subscribers...
With the $1.5 trillion in ETFs, mutual funds, and other investment products that track the Nasdaq 100, [you're] looking at a massive wave of forced buying... days after the IPO.
And when you include the Russell indexes, the wave of passive buying gets even larger. More from Matt...
According to Rob Du Boff, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 index funds would need to acquire 24% of available shares starting as soon as 15 days after the IPO.
SpaceX has only been public for 12 trading days. But between the inclusion in the Russell 1000 this week and the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday, there will be plenty of demand in the coming days.
The stock's inclusion in major indexes is expected to trigger somewhere between $7 billion and $9 billion in forced passive buying.
SpaceX is down 15% from its June 16 closing high. But today, the stock gained roughly 4%. It's up about 10% in the past three days and, as we mentioned, is valued at more than $2 trillion.
As we've warned, a money-losing company can't command such a high valuation forever.
And anyone who owns the index funds holding SpaceX will get exposed to this risk whether they like it or not.
As Matt went on to explain, the SpaceX IPO underscores the danger in doing the "safe" thing and buying index funds...
These events demonstrate that you can't just "buy the market" when private companies like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic have designed their entire IPO process to dump insider shares into index funds.
And they show that index providers' high ideals about profits, float, and governance fall to the wayside when a sufficiently hot IPO gets investors excited.
S&P Dow Jones Indices, the company that runs the S&P 500, didn't change its rules to fast-track SpaceX into its index. But SpaceX will likely join it at some point next year.
Soon, no major index will be safe from a large SpaceX position. That's on top of indexes' already high concentration in the Magnificent Seven mega-cap tech stocks. And that's where our research and products like The Total Portfolio come in. As Matt continued...
Of course, in The Total Portfolio, our solution is to manage our own portfolio... to understand every position we own, the underlying businesses, how they relate to our other positions, and what they mean for our overall investing strategy.
Said another way, at Stansberry Research, we don't just blindly recommend buying indexes. Understanding and managing your own portfolio is the only way to fully protect yourself from market changes like mega-cap IPOs' fast-tracked index inclusions. And our editors provide you the broad education and specific stock recommendations to let you do that.
SpaceX is the first of these risky mega-IPOs, and more are to come. Anthropic will go public sooner than later... with OpenAI likely to follow next year.
An America 250 shocker...
We're just four days away from a milestone Fourth of July, this being 250 years since 1776... And along with the celebration, this holiday could deliver a shocking White House announcement about the financial system.
That's according to our friend, Extreme Value editor, and regular Friday Digest essayist Dan Ferris...
As Dan explains in a new free presentation and as he recently detailed to his subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members, America is about to face a type of financial reset that hasn't been seen in 55 years. It all has to do with something called "Project Hamilton."
This could be "one of the most significant monetary shifts since the U.S. abandoned the gold standard in 1971," Dan recently wrote to subscribers. The AI boom plays a role too, according to Dan, "as AI infrastructure and data centers continue to increase the need for critical resources."
The rumors about this reset began in January, and now Dan is convinced an announcement as soon as this weekend could trigger a series of market surges and crashes. The result is potentially the "the biggest trade of all time" for those who understand what's coming.
And it could affect everyone who has money invested in the market or saved away.
So check out what Dan has to say. Extreme Value subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can find the complete story and four related recommendations here.
If you don't have access and want to join them, click here to learn more so you can position yourself and your portfolio today.
One final thing... A lot of people are about to get hot, too...
In another treat this holiday weekend, a multiday heat wave with temperatures as high as 105 degrees is about to blast much of the U.S.
For those of you living in places beneath the forecast "heat dome," take note and take precautions as needed.
As our Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig wrote in his free Health & Wealth Bulletin today, heat becomes more dangerous as you age. He shares how to recognize an "overheating" emergency and provides seven tips to stay safe.
"Fortunately, most heat illnesses are preventable," Doc explains.
It's a good read even if you're west of the heat dome and won't be baking in heat imminently.
Get all Doc's tips, for free, here... We'll let the AI data centers that also need cooling figure it out for themselves.
New 52-week highs (as of 6/29/26): AbbVie (ABBV), Altius Minerals (ALS.TO), Applied Materials (AMAT), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Healthpeak Properties (DOC), iShares Biotechnology Fund (IBB), Illumina (ILMN), Eli Lilly (LLY), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Roivant Sciences (ROIV), Travelers (TRV), Valero Energy (VLO), and State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV).
A quiet mailbag today... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
June 30, 2026
