What 'nobody knows'... The latest in a series of supply shocks... Oil prices are up 60% since the Iran war started... What's next?... Stocks are deeper in 'no man's land'... The weak canary in the coal mine...
At school with the Fed Chair...
This morning, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell answered questions from students at Harvard's Principles of Economics class in a sort of parting lecture. I (Corey McLaughlin) tuned in to part of the livestream...
One student asked Powell the "question of the moment."
After suggesting to Powell that the trillions of dollars of stimulus pumped into the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic is still influencing inflation, the student asked about the idea that "instability geopolitically" could, in part, create an "inflationary spiral."
Powell (erroneously, in my view) brushed aside the influence of 2020's sharply rising money supply on inflation. "My story of the pandemic inflation would not be about monetary quantities, mainly," he said.
Instead, he said supply and demand influenced higher prices then – and will again now.
Powell pointed to the demand for cars during the pandemic because "everyone" wanted one and there were supply-chain disruptions (there were no semiconductors to be had).
When supply and demand came more into balance, Powell said the pace of inflation (eventually) came down in 2023 and 2024. Of course, we would argue jacking up interest rates and reducing the money supply starting in 2022 also helped, but began about six months too late. In any case, Powell defended Fed policy...
We got pretty close to 2% by the end of '24. Now, we were just dealing with the effect of tariffs... We're at about 3% inflation and somewhere between 0.5 and 0.8 of that is from tariffs. We've been pretty close to 2% all this time.
Then Powell brought up today's supply worries...
Now we have another supply shock coming... First the pandemic, then a much smaller one from tariffs, and we're getting now an energy shock. Nobody knows how big it will be. It's way too early to know.
Powell's right on that point there. It's too early to know for sure how big the energy shock will be.
Waiting and seeing...
President Donald Trump continues to send various messages about the war in Iran.
In the past day or so, he has pitched the idea that "serious" negotiations with Iran to end the war are ongoing and that he has extended a deadline. Trump has also threatened to attack Iran's oil production and energy supply if no deal is reached.
Meanwhile, thousands of U.S. troops, including reportedly Navy SEALs and Army Rangers, have freshly arrived near the Persian Gulf, and more could be on the way.
Here's the latest from Truth Social today, which says U.S. discussions are evidently happening with a "new regime"...
The United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran...
Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately 'Open for Business,' we will conclude our lovely 'stay' in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet 'touched.'
In the meantime, global oil and gas flows remain upended – with Iran essentially closing the Strait of Hormuz and taking 20% of global oil supply out of the market – and energy prices keep rising amid volatility.
Industry analysts are saying the world is now facing a daily deficit of about 10 million barrels of oil per day.
So oil prices are now up 60% since February 26. Brent crude, the international benchmark, is now around $114 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate ("WTI"), the U.S. standard, gained around 4% today to around $104 per barrel. As Dan Ferris wrote on Friday, an energy crisis is already here.
That means higher costs for a lot of businesses and investors. And the longer the immediate conflict goes on, the more risk there is that energy prices will continue to rise and influence the economy more.
We're already seeing Wall Street analysts and media start to talk about how investors are "underestimating" the impact, which could be a sign that maximum fear has passed... or that there's still too much optimism baked into prices right now.
Forget "shock and awe" – the military strategy of using overwhelming force, which the U.S. notably used in the 2003 Iraq war. Right now, it's more like "shock and wait."
Falling further into 'no man's land'...
Today, the major U.S. indexes were mostly lower. The benchmark S&P 500 Index was down about 0.4%, and it has fallen further into "no man's land" – trading below its 200-day moving average, a technical measure of a long-term trend.
Similarly, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Fund (RSP) is now also below its 200-day moving average as of Friday. So the downward trend for stocks isn't just limited to the mega-cap tech names that heavily influence the market-cap-weighted S&P 500.
The Magnificent Seven are almost in a bear market of their own, with the Roundhill Magnificent Seven Fund (MAGS) – which equally weights the stocks – down close to 20% from its most recent high in October. (More on this in a moment.)
A cautious view...
Volatility is relatively high right now. The CBOE Volatility Index ("VIX") – which measures options activity on the S&P 500 (so the higher the reading, the more uncertainty these bets signal) – has been trending higher since Christmas. It hit around 31 today.
So today could, counterintuitively, be a good buying opportunity for stocks you've had your eye on. Some quality stocks are already falling into "cheaper" territory.
But we urge caution about going "all-in" on stocks.
We're not seeing a "peak fear" environment, when everyone is scared and the VIX spikes to a suddenly higher high. Peak fear could be close, but there could still be more downside ahead for stocks before we see an "Iran war bottom," especially if energy prices continue rising...
As Dan wrote on Friday, gas and diesel prices are soaring. That doesn't just hit consumers at local gas stations... It also matters for virtually every consumer good. As Dan wrote...
Most of us don't think about how goods arrive at our doors. We simply click "buy" online, and they show up.
But the truth is, we all rely on trucks for the items we consume.
As I told Ferris Report subscribers in December, "[Diesel's] use in trucking correlates nearly perfectly with U.S. GDP growth."
There are 15 million commercial trucks in the U.S., 76% of which run on diesel. About 97% of the largest tractor trailers (known as Class 8 vehicles) run on diesel.
International trade relies on diesel trucks, too. The U.S.'s two biggest trading partners are Mexico and Canada. Roughly two-thirds of surface trade (trucks, rail, and pipelines) with Canada is hauled by trucks, as is roughly 85% of surface trade with Mexico.
Truckers are already suffering from higher diesel prices.
Energy supply disruptions still have the potential to get worse. And then come the consequences... like higher prices.
Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond says to beware a market bounce...
In his "Weekly Market Outlook" for subscribers this morning, Greg ran through the technical indicators and charts he's looking at in the stock market right now.
He noted the developments in the Middle East, private credit, and AI that have rattled the markets this year. In short, Greg says a "downtrend is in play," and he'd be cautious about getting too bullish right now, even if some type of deal is made with Iran.
As Greg wrote...
I can't sit here and tell you how the geopolitical and financial catalysts will play out.
What I can say is that, if we get a bounce (or any type of relief rally) heading into April and May, that will trap a lot of investors. And the market volatility will get even more extreme.
Existing Ten Stock Trader subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can find all the details and Greg's analysis here.
A weak-looking 'canary in the coal mine'...
Over the past few months, our friend Marc Chaikin has also been warning about stock market losses this year.
Marc is a 50-plus-year investing veteran and founder of our corporate affiliate, Chaikin Analytics. So when Marc talks, we listen.
Marc says one sign of market weakness today is the Magnificent Seven. As we said above, these stocks have an outsized influence on the S&P 500. That's why Marc and his team see these stocks as a "canary in the coal mine" signal for the broader market.
Last week, in the free DailyWealth e-letter, Marc shared that his Power Gauge system doesn't rate a single Magnificent Seven stock as "bullish" right now.
As Marc explained, his team measures the Magnificent Seven through the Roundhill Magnificent Seven Fund...
Since January 23, the fund is down nearly 11%...
Put simply, folks... the "canary" of the markets isn't looking good.
To make matters worse, we don't know how long the war with Iran will drag on. And the turmoil adds to the risk of a heavy downturn for the markets.
But the weakness of the Magnificent Seven is just part of the story.
Marc predicted the 2020 crash... the 2022 bear market... and called the 2023 "run on the banks." Now, Marc says you need to have a plan for "the year of the bear."
In his new free presentation, Marc shares his game plan for surviving this crisis, including his No. 1 move to make over the next 90 days that will not only protect your wealth but potentially lock in double-digit gains in stocks.
Plus, just for watching, you'll hear two free recommendations that you can act on immediately. Click here to learn the full story before this presentation goes offline.
New 52-week highs (as of 3/27/26): Antero Resources (AR), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), BP (BP), CF Industries (CF), Chord Energy (CHRD), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Chevron (CVX), Diversified Energy (DEC), EOG Resources (EOG), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Matador Resources (MTDR), Pembina Pipeline (PBA), Invesco Oil & Gas Services Fund (PXJ), USCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund (SDCI), Valaris (VAL), Valero Energy (VLO), State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), and ExxonMobil (XOM).
In today's mailbag, feedback on Dan Ferris' Friday Digest... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"With rising energy demand wouldn't it be nice if we could free the world's largest oil reserves from a narco-terrorist dictator just across the gulf of 'merca from our Houston refineries? Or maybe remove the Islamic-terrorist premium from oil that passes through the Middle East, wouldn't that be nice too? Maybe we'll find out. I hope so." – Stansberry Alliance member Paul J.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
March 30, 2026
