Slow playing on an Iran deal... A two-month high for gold... The key indicator for gold's next move... A big week for inflation data... The labor market loses its footing... Friday's jobs report puts the Fed back in a tough spot...
We're still playing the waiting game with Iran...
In an interview with Axios last night, President Donald Trump said that the U.S. is "low-keying" deal talks with Iran. In short, Trump is in no rush to get a deal done.
In fact, he added that the U.S. is only "semi-negotiating" with Iran and is more than happy to put economic pressure on the country rather than using military efforts. Trump highlighted Iran's inflation and how the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has hurt Iran's economy.
This may be the new normal for the Iran conflict...
In the interview, Trump said U.S. consumers aren't struggling as much with $80-per-barrel oil prices (versus $110 at their mid war peak). With energy prices relenting, the president has plenty of leeway in negotiations.
And the U.S. continues to flood the market with oil to ease any pain the war may cause. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve hit its lowest level since January 1983 last week. It's down 27% from its recent high in March.
So even though the Strait of Hormuz is still only seeing one ship per day pass through... and Iran just threatened that the Strait will remain closed until 2029.. we're not seeing as large an impact on oil markets as we did in the early days of the conflict.
As long as oil prices don't spike higher, we're going to continue to see the "deal or no deal" headlines. And we're leaning toward "no deal" for now.
Elsewhere, gold is rallying...
Since hitting a 2026 low below $4,000 per ounce on July 16, gold has rallied more than 10%. At roughly $4,400 per ounce, it's trading at a six-week high. It's also beating the stock market's return since July 16 (though gold still trails stocks year to date).
But gold doesn't have the "all clear" just yet...
As our colleague Chris Igou explained in Friday's issue of DailyWealth Trader, the 4% one-day jump we saw in gold last Wednesday is a good tell for higher prices. Based on past instances, after a 4% one-day jump, gold averages an 11.6% return over the next 12 months, higher than its typical annual return of 8.8%.
But there is a catch. As Chris wrote...
The win rates over these periods are not great.
Gold was higher 61% of the time over three months. That rose to 67% of the time over six months. But then over the full-year period, that percentage falls to 58%.
So the jump we saw last week isn't a surefire sign that the next move in gold is going to be higher. Chris wrote that for signals like this, he wants to see a win rate of more than 70% to be confident in the move.
That's why Chris shared another indicator that investors should watch for a clue as to whether gold is in a new long-term uptrend. More from Friday's DailyWealth Trader...
We first want to see gold get back above its 200-day moving average (200-DMA). And then we want to see the 200-DMA starting to rise. That's not the case today...
This is a pivotal moment for the gold market. If that 200-DMA starts to turn lower, it will act as a strong resistance point going forward. This means that any time gold rallies up to it from below, it'll likely fall after testing the 200-DMA.
Right now, that 200-DMA is around $4,616 per ounce. Keep an eye on that level for the next move in gold. But last week's move higher, which continued today, is a good start.
Inflation data on deck...
On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its consumer price index ("CPI") inflation data for July. Then, Thursday morning, we'll get the producer price index ("PPI") wholesale inflation data.
As we wrote last week, the Federal Reserve is becoming increasingly concerned about inflation. And just today, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the Fed needs to raise interest rates more than once to fight inflation.
Right now, every inflation metric is above the central bank's 2% target. For this week's data, the Cleveland Fed sees CPI coming in at a 3.4% year-over-year increase.
That would be the lowest level since March, but higher than any point dating back to April 2024 – not including the past three months.
Energy prices are down from their highs earlier this year, so the worst is likely behind us. But that doesn't mean inflation isn't still an issue. The Cleveland Fed expects core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, to come in at 2.5%.
Core CPI accelerated for three straight months before a big drop in June. So there's plenty to look for in Wednesday's release.
Meanwhile, the labor market just got cloudier...
Before last Friday, the job market seemed on stable footing. Hiring wasn't off the charts, but it had positive monthly job gains.
Then we got Friday's nonfarm payroll jobs report...
In July, the U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs versus Wall Street's expectation of adding 83,000 jobs. That's a huge miss. To make matters worse, both May and June's job gains were revised lower by a combined 103,000 jobs.
So the jobs market may not be as steady as we thought. And that puts the Fed back between a rock and a hard place.
You see, with the job market on stable footing, the Fed could focus on tackling inflation by potentially raising interest rates. Three Fed voters even "dissented" in favor of higher rates at the July Fed meeting.
Friday's weak jobs data changes all that.
Before Friday, traders were pricing in a 55% chance of a rate hike in September, with a 45% chance of leaving rates unchanged again. Now, traders are pricing in a 51.7% chance of rates rising, according to CME's FedWatch.
The question is whether the Fed will stay in wait-and-see mode, raise rates to combat inflation, or even lower rates to support the job market. Raising or cutting rates will have the inverse effect on the labor market or inflation, respectively. But waiting too long to act runs the risk of letting both situations get worse.
We'll be keeping a close eye on this week's inflation data for clues about what the Fed's next move could be.
The Hidden Math Behind SpaceX's $1.8 Trillion Valuation
SpaceX (SPCX) finally went public in June, but is it actually worth nearly $2 trillion? After digging into the company's financials, Altimetry Director of Research Rob Spivey came away more optimistic than he expected.
His argument: Investors shouldn't think of SpaceX as one business. There's Starlink, a rapidly growing connectivity business. There's the launch division, where reusable rockets have transformed the economics of reaching space. And there's xAI, which could dramatically change the valuation equation.
But our Director of Research Matt Weinschenk isn't convinced. In this episode of Top Stocks, Matt and Rob debate what SpaceX's financials really reveal and discuss whether the company can ultimately justify its enormous valuation...
Click here to watch this episode – for free – right now on our YouTube page. Or you can find the episode here, on the members section of StansberryResearch.com under "Media."
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In today's mailbag, feedback on Dan Ferris' Friday essay, which includes a tale of surviving a shark encounter... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"I just read the Meat of the Matter email. I'm not looking for quick answers.
"I'm almost 80, a retired doctor, businessman, and strong family man. I can't tell you how impressed I was with the email. I look back and see myself learning the hard way too many times. There are no easy answers, but I finally think I found an answer I can give younger people.
"There will be many times in a life that an important decision must be made. Sometimes more important than others. Everything ranging from life choices, to marriage, to career, to making major purchases. The one thing I look back on and wish I'd done differently was to accept that I don't have all or even the best information to decide. Too many times I can see how, if I'd only asked someone I knew at the time, who had a longer outlook, different experience, and especially, not my 'clone,' I would have probably decided better than I did and avoided the problems that came with my choices.
"I advise young people that when a decision needs to be made, find a mentor to ask for a different outlook. It won't be the same person every time or even over a long period. But, if you think to look, you'll always find one available." – Subscriber Ken R.
"Dear Mr. Ferris, I've followed your work and that of Porter Stansberry, et al, for some time. Thank you all for your uncommon collective and individual wisdom.
"In consideration of your recent article, I would suggest that some of those who trade daily, buy on margin, buy options, and/or otherwise gamble share a common perception. I think that perception has to do with a strong desire to get something for nothing. And I suspect that many gamblers will probably report their winnings far more accurately and completely than their losses. I'm trying hard not to judge here. Consenting adults can do whatever they want. I'm only human too. My main concern regarding those who choose immediate reward is wondering what real value their activity adds to the world. Please pass the pretzels and marshmallows!" – Subscriber Mitchell K.
"Hey Dan, Your story about being in the deep water and encountering sharks resonated with me. I was in the out islands of the Bahamas last year fly fishing in knee deep water when a 6-foot bull shark attacked me from behind. Fortunately, I was able to kick it repeatedly in the head with my right foot while it had my left leg in its mouth and couldn't quite get its bottom row of teeth latched on. I drove myself back to my room using a makeshift tourniquet/compress with a cloth grocery bag. Fortunately, I had some QuickClot in my kit to staunch any additional bleeding so I could make the 50-minute drive to the primitive medical clinic.
"I ended up getting stitched up by a local Doc and had teeth marks all along the side of my foot the next day. No one there had ever heard of such a thing before.
"My investment take away here would be that in spite of our best plans, bad stuff can still happen (Black Swan?!?) And always have some type of option in case it does so. I was damn glad I had a military-grade coagulant, and evacuation coverage to fly me out (that I didn't need fortunately). It also helped that I had good balance for a 67-year-old, and the shark didn't knock me over when it was driving hard on my leg. Its nose felt like someone hit me with a surfboard." – Subscriber Steve S.
All the best,
Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
August 10, 2026
