Blockading the blockade... The last oil tankers from the Persian Gulf are arriving… Energy crisis protection… Brush your teeth… Stocks keep going up… Weathering the chaos…
My, how the tables have turned...
We're back from the weekend, and now the U.S. is shutting down the Strait of Hormuz...
Twenty hours of U.S.-Iran negotiations in Pakistan failed to produce an agreement. As President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social, "There is only one thing that matters – IRAN IS UNWILLING TO GIVE UP ITS NUCLEAR AMBITIONS!"
So Trump's next move was to announce a U.S. "blockade" of the key strait at the mouth of the Persian Gulf. And with that, the Iranian military said the ceasefire announced last week is off, as far as Iran is concerned.
The idea from the White House is that the U.S. Navy will only permit tankers traveling to and from ports outside Iran. The plan went into effect at 10 a.m. Eastern time today.
That doesn't mean Iran won't keep attacking these ships... or that they won't strike a mine. Iran says it doesn't even know where all its mines are.
According to Trump, 34 ships passed through the strait yesterday. That's up from the handful that have reportedly trickled through over the past six weeks. But it's barely a third of the typical daily pre-war traffic.
In other words, we're a long way from "normal."
An important point ahead...
The disruption in Persian Gulf energy shipments is about to hit home.
War has been raging in Iran for the past month and a half... But tankers move slowly. Some ships that passed through the strait before the war began, and they still haven't reached their destinations. Their oil and gas will feed the global market like usual.
The last of those ships will reach their destinations this week. And this time, there won't be a steady supply of tankers behind them.
That's when energy supplies will start drying up in some parts of the world...
Meanwhile, oil production in the Middle East has been drastically cut in nations like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates.
In all, OPEC's March production was down 27% month over month, or 8 million barrels less per day. And attacks on energy infrastructure in the region have continued this month. So supply is likely to remain unstable in the months ahead.
We wrote last week about how high oil prices could go the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains "closed" – as much as 70% higher from current levels if the situation drags on six more months.
An energy crisis hedge...
Even before all this latest news over the weekend, Stansberry Research senior analyst Bryan Beach sent a new, timely "Energy Crisis Hedge" recommendation to his Stansberry Venture Value subscribers...
We've been writing about Energy Crisis Hedges since February 2022, when we introduced the concept as "Putin Hedges." The core idea is that rising geopolitical instability – especially in Eastern Europe and the Middle East – would weaponize energy. This would push oil prices up and shift global demand toward relatively safe jurisdictions like the U.S. So we've been investing in the domestic companies that are poised to soar from this shift.
The White House has echoed our Energy Crisis Hedge thesis in recent weeks.
Then came the weekend, and a blockade today... For some really good reading on the "weaponization" of energy and Bryan's stock recommendation to hedge an energy crisis, existing Venture Value subscribers can find his full issue here. As he writes...
Now, you might be wondering if it's too late to hedge. After all, it seems like the current situation would already be priced into every stock even remotely exposed to U.S. energy production.
The answer is that hedging is always a smart move when chaos looms like it does today. Plus, by carefully shopping around, we can still get some Energy Hedge "insurance" for a reasonable price.
The new recommendation from Bryan is one such opportunity. He says it gives folks "full exposure to U.S. energy, but its shares won't collapse if [oil] falls further." Plus, as Bryan continued...
The company trades for a bargain right now, but it's about to hit a major inflection point that will fundamentally change its stock's trajectory...
And, as we've pointed out before, it's not just oil and gas...
Oil price swings have driven much of the overall market volatility lately. But other commodities – including some most people wouldn't think of – are seeing their supplies disrupted as well.
Here's one "unexpected" consequence... In our neck of the woods, the city of Baltimore announced today it will lower fluoride levels in its drinking water by 42%. The war in Iran has disrupted supplies of the hydrofluorosilicic acid the U.S. imports from Israel and China.
At the risk of encouraging a fluoride debate in our mailbag... brush those teeth, kids.
A 'mixed' day...
Oil prices moved higher again, between 1% and 4%. No surprise there. But they also were off their highs of the past 24 hours as we write, with Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate around $98 per barrel. They were both above $100 earlier in the day.
Meanwhile, the major U.S. stock indexes held onto the "ceasefire" bounce from last week... even though Iran declared the ceasefire over. The indexes were higher today across the board, with the tech sector of the S&P 500 Index leading the way.
The AI universe got a boost as Oracle (ORCL) shares popped nearly 13% today after the company touted some of its AI platforms for utility companies.
Optimism abounds, it appears...
The S&P 500 Index traded above its 200-day moving average for a fourth straight trading day. And the CBOE Volatility Index ("VIX") dipped below 20, trending down from its highs last month closer to 30.
But world events have hardly settled down. It's a lot to follow.
If you're struggling to keep up with the developments in Iran or have even given up trying, you're not alone...
As Whitney Tilson and Alan Gula wrote in this month's The N.E.W. System update sent to subscribers on Friday...
Earlier this week, the president of the United States warned that an entire civilization could be wiped off the map... Oil spiked above $117 a barrel... And a ceasefire was reached and violated.
That was just on Tuesday.
We know the feeling. We were here, writing about it. And fortunately for their subscribers, Whitney and Alan were putting together the latest update on a terrific market solution they offer in the AI-aided N.E.W. System portfolio.
Their AI system culls their model portfolio from a selection of 1,000 stocks that are first filtered using our proprietary Stansberry Score. It chooses a complementary selection of 20 top-quality stocks to form a risk-adjusted portfolio to weather exactly the kind of chaotic, unpredictable environment we're living through right now.
As Whitney and Alan wrote...
Thankfully, our system doesn't care what Trump happens to post on a Tuesday morning. Our algorithms don't have an opinion on whether the ceasefire is real or destined to fall apart. Nor do they care about the next $10 move in the price of oil.
Our algorithms don't trade on headlines, panic, or hope. They don't read the news. They just run the math every quarter, using the same rules.
So in today's issue, we'll review how The N.E.W. System works and explain how our portfolio is set up to profit no matter what happens next...
Subscribers can find their latest update here. And to learn more about The N.E.W. System, and to get started with a 70% discount, click here for a full presentation from Whitney.
The N.E.W. System may not be tracking the blur of daily headlines, but we are.
And, as we could have written a lot lately, we'll see what tomorrow brings.
New 52-week highs (as of 4/10/26): Applied Materials (AMAT), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Ciena (CIEN), Ecovyst (ECVT), EnerSys (ENS), FirstCash (FCFS), GE Vernova (GEV), Hubbell (HUBB), iShares Convertible Bond Fund (ICVT), Lumentum (LITE), Lynas Rare Earths (LYSDY), Tenaris (TS), Telefônica Brasil (VIV), and State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor Fund (XSD).
In today's mailbag, thoughts on fuel hedging, which we covered in a mailbag last week... and thoughts on Dan Ferris' Friday essay... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"It is very easy to in hindsight chastise airlines for not having hedges in place when fuel prices [go] up dramatically.
"It is also very easy to chastise airlines when fuel prices go down dramatically, and their costs, profits and stock price don't adjust commensurately because of their hedging.
"I can only imagine how challenging this is for airline management, damned if you do, damned if you don't.
"Ultimately if your bonuses were tied to 'steady slow growth' you might hedge, and if you only cared about the next quarter or year, you'd probably look at oil prices going down and take the hedges off. Can't blame anyone for that, except perhaps the boards and how compensation is structured.
"Either way, there will be costs, and they will be passed on to consumers, either as slow and steady growing costs, or with dramatic swings when oil and fuel prices have dramatic swings." – Stansberry Alliance member John W.
"Subscriber Jeff C. succinctly describes Milton Friedman's view on inflation – too much money chasing too few goods. Could it be, then, that today's inflation numbers don't yet reflect downward pricing adjustments by companies that are seeing their sales drop because Americans are now spending more on fuel? I guess we'll see down the road.
"I also loved this paragraph from Dan's report [on Friday]:
My job isn't to make you agree with me. My job is to give you the tools to make sound investment decisions. If you think I'm an idiot but come away from this Digest with a clearer idea of how to handle market volatility, I've earned my paycheck.
"You're the man, Dan." – Subscriber Sherwin R.
"Stop calling oil & gas 'fossil fuels.' They don't come from fossils. Watch Fletcher Prouty explain here." – Subscriber Warren W.
Corey McLaughlin comment: Cool clip, Warren. Thanks for sending.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
April 13, 2026
