Markets cheer a 'ceasefire' in Iran... The complicating factors... The trouble with 'human intervention'... A long-term energy investing opportunity, no matter what happens next... The power of 'true diversification'...
Hail to the 'ceasefire'...
Yesterday, as we went to press, President Donald Trump's self-imposed deadline for a "deal" to end the war in Iran was fast approaching.
Sure enough, about an hour later, Trump wrote about a "double-sided ceasefire" agreement on Truth Social.
Trump said there will be no end of Iranian civilization... or any U.S. bombing of the country for two weeks (subject to Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz) while the sides discuss a resolution to the war, including the safe passage of oil through the Persian Gulf.
As far as we can tell, the U.S. military hasn't carried out any further strikes in Iran. Trump has said in-person negotiations will happen "soon."
In the meantime, the stock market has rallied with enthusiasm. The major U.S. stock indexes were up around 3% on today's open after oil futures plummeted about 15% overnight. The gains in stocks – and decline in oil prices – mostly held throughout the day.
Whether this "ceasefire" holds, though, remains to be seen.
An interesting start...
Over the centuries, Middle East "peace" has often proven elusive. This time is no different, with U.S. Vice President JD Vance describing the current "truce" with Iranian leaders (whoever they are) as "fragile."
Just this morning, officials assessed the damage of an Iranian attack on the key East-West Saudi Arabian oil pipeline (which was built in the 1980s to avoid the kind of Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions we're seeing now). The attack reportedly happened just hours after Trump announced the ceasefire.
Iran has claimed that Israel was already in violation of the ceasefire because Israel continued to attack the Iranian-aligned Hezbollah group in Lebanon. Trump said Israel stopping attacks in Lebanon isn't part of the deal.
Sounds like somebody needs to create some fine print, quick.
Meanwhile, reports say Iran is telling shippers it wants a "tariff" of $1 per barrel of oil for passing through the Strait of Hormuz and is asking ships to send payment in cryptocurrency after it assesses requests via email.
Today, Trump told an ABC News reporter about his own idea for a "joint venture" with a new Iranian leadership regime to collect similar fees, though that wasn't part of the 10-point framework he agreed to last night.
But the leaders of Oman, which borders the south side of the Strait of Hormuz, have other ideas.
The oldest independent state in the Arab world – which has been ruled by a sultanate dynasty that has been in power since the mid-18th century – says both Iran and the U.S. have it wrong, putting out this statement...
The strait is a natural passage not created by human intervention, and therefore no fees can be imposed under international agreements signed...
If only it were that easy.
Talks between U.S. and Iranian officials are supposedly going to happen starting Friday, possibly in Pakistan. As we go to press, it's unclear if shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf has picked up, with some 800 tankers still parked in the region.
Perhaps more details will come to light over the next week, and we'll have a clearer picture of what comes next. Maybe not. We could be in for a few more surprises. Either way, the market reacted today with "relief" about the latest in the war.
An investing opportunity in the longer run...
As we mentioned at the start of the war, the U.S. is the top liquefied natural gas ("LNG") producer in the world. That can insulate the U.S. from some economic chaos.
This position of strength and some growing tailwinds also provide a compelling investment opportunity over the longer term, whether the war in Iran ends soon or drags on.
Stansberry Research Senior Analyst Alan Gula highlighted the situation in this month's issue of The Total Portfolio, sent to subscribers last evening.
He began with an observation about something strange happening in West Texas right now...
While global energy prices have surged amid the ongoing war in the Middle East – Brent crude is up more than 50%, and European natural gas futures are up almost 100% – the "U.S. is swimming in natural gas," Alan said.
In fact, the U.S. has so much natural gas supply that at one trading hub, natural gas prices have been negative for 42 straight days. That means producers are paying buyers to take gas off their hands. Producers are even burning, or flaring, extra supply.
This is almost like what happened briefly during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, when oil prices went negative – before surging in the ensuing years.
At the root of the story is a supply-infrastructure mismatch years in the making...
U.S. natural gas production has exploded over the past two decades, but infrastructure to send this gas around the country and export it hasn't kept up.
But now, additional pipelines and export capacity are coming on line. That's expected to continue in the years ahead. North American LNG output is projected to more than double by 2029.
Not only that, but we're seeing increased domestic power demand thanks to the AI boom. This demand will be met with electricity created from natural gas. And now, the war in Iran has added another tailwind for U.S. natural gas production and exports.
As Alan writes...
Europe has become increasingly dependent upon U.S. LNG exports. That's due to three main things... Green-energy initiatives and policymakers in Europe are shutting down nuclear power plants. The critical Nord Stream pipelines were lost in the Russia-Ukraine war. And now, Iran is disrupting the flow of LNG even further.
The U.S. will be able to supply more and more gas to Europe as export facilities, slowly but surely, come on line.
Alan says the companies that can help close the U.S. global supply-demand gap are well positioned to benefit, no matter when the latest conflict in the Middle East ends.
That's why he recommended Total Portfolio subscribers buy shares of one U.S. gas driller with exposure to LNG exports and growing U.S. power demand in this month's issue. Existing subscribers can read the whole issue and get the details here.
The power of 'true diversification'...
In the issue, Alan also explained how "true diversification" (including a roughly 10% cash or cash-equivalent allocation and exposure to energy stocks) has been a winning game plan so far in 2026, as the overall stock market has been volatile and U.S. Treasurys and even gold have sold off.
As Alan shared, the Total Portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 Index and a conventional 60-40 stock-bond portfolio...
Despite all the scary news headlines and market slump lately, our model portfolio has held up admirably.
As of April 6, VBINX [the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund] is down 1.6% for 2026, and the S&P 500 is down 3.1%... The Total Portfolio is up 3.3%.
That's solid outperformance... and exactly what our portfolio was designed for.
In short, "true diversification comes from owning the right assets at the right time," Alan writes, "and owning ones that can perform even when traditional hedges fail."
Investments in the natural gas sector are a perfect fit.
New 52-week highs (as of 4/7/26): Ciena (CIEN), New York Times (NYT), and Tenaris (TS).
In today's mailbag, feedback on yesterday's Digest, which discussed war-related inflation... and highlighted the new "shadow data" trading strategy under the Stansberry Research umbrella... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Hi Corey, I read reports and see video clips of airline CEO's and commentators lamenting the terrible inflationary impact of rising jet fuel prices.
"My perspective has been that airlines significantly hedge or futures contract their jet fuel requirements well into the future. I find it hard to believe that most didn't lock in significant volumes when [West Texas Intermediate] was in the $60s/bbl range.
"I can see some marginal impact on non-contracted volumes, but I'm not buying their whole fuel buy is affected by recent spike in oil prices.
"It does provide a narrative to raise ticket prices on already-strapped customers." – Subscriber Edward V.
"Hey Corey, I have really enjoyed reading the series leading up to [yesterday's] presentation. And yes, I watched the whole two hours. I am very glad to be an Alliance Partner and get this new service and the background reports. So, congratulations to Stansberry Research to putting [Josh Baylin] in the stable." – Stansberry Alliance member Jeffrey G.
Corey McLaughlin comment: Thanks for the note. Happy to hear it all around.
For anyone who didn't see Stansberry Research senior analyst Josh Baylin's new, free presentation, you can watch a replay here at your convenience. It features Josh publicly sharing details of his "shadow data" trading strategy for the first time.
Stansberry Alliance members have full access to this strategy. You can find all the details, resources, and latest trading recommendations from Josh here or in your inbox.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
April 8, 2026
