Promises of progress with Iran... A five-day break from strikes... Stocks get their relief rally... Oil hits a two-week low... A brief bear market in gold... This pullback was coming... The long-term case for gold...
This morning brought welcome news for investors...
Just after daybreak, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran have had two days of "very good and productive" talks on resolving the ongoing conflict. As a result, he said he suspended all strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure for five days.
Here's the president's full post...
Following up on his written post, Trump made the rounds with financial media today. In one interview – with Fox Business – Trump added that it may take less than five days to resolve the conflict, if the next few days of negotiations go well.
Talking to reporters, the president said the U.S. has secured agreements on some of its largest asks – like Iran "never" having a nuclear weapon.
Iran denied the claims, insisting it had no "indirect or direct contact" with Trump. Even with the mixed messages, the chance of de-escalation in the Middle East was enough for investors today...
Futures for all three major U.S. indexes jumped more than 2% immediately after Trump's post, and they finished the day up more than 1%.
But the rally may not last long...
The S&P 500 Index has continued to make a series of lower highs and lower lows over the past month – the hallmark pattern of a downtrend.
And as Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond shared in his Weekly Market Outlook this morning, a sustained rebound faces many challenges.
From Greg...
Simply put, the overall market has been struggling. Now, the continued war in Iran and potentially higher inflation are creating a more bearish environment.
Only time will tell if stocks can recover from their pullback over the past few weeks. But one thing is a near-certainty to me (Nick Koziol)... plenty of volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index ("VIX"), the stock market's "fear gauge," is still above the key level of 20 – showing elevated levels of fear.
While stocks jumped, oil pulled back...
Resolving the conflict in Iran would likely reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That would let oil and gas begin flowing out of the Middle East again. Before the war, 20% of the world's oil supply passed through the strait.
With this morning's encouraging news, West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") crude fell more than 10% to about $86 per barrel immediately after Trump's announcement.
At its closing price of $90 per barrel, oil now sits at a two-week low (though it's still up more than 30% since the conflict started).
But even if traffic starts passing through the strait again, energy production from the region won't be the same as before the conflict...
According to International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol, the war has severely damaged at least 40 energy assets across the Middle East. That means things like pipelines, refineries, and production facilities. Those will take time to repair and get back up and running again.
So while oil dropped sharply today, the factors that have pushed energy prices higher over the past month haven't gone away just yet.
Still, facing the prospect of the worst of the energy disruption being behind us, investors bought stocks and sold oil.
Precious metals have felt the pain lately, too...
Overnight, gold fell to as low as $4,105 per ounce, before recovering slightly throughout the day. At its lows, gold was in "bear market" territory – down more than 20% from its all-time high above $5,300 per ounce in January.
It's not about Iran in particular. Gold was due for a pullback...
The precious metal soared more than 50% in 12 months. And it hadn't had a pullback of more than 9% until January during that window.
As our colleague and Extreme Value editor Dan Ferris wrote in the October 24 Digest, "big drops" aren't unusual following strong bull runs for gold. From Dan...
When any asset price goes ballistic the way gold's has over the past couple months, what follows is often not a sideways consolidation.
That's what we've seen in recent weeks. Gold has had a couple of sharp pullbacks, and it now trades for its lowest price in more than two months. But that's not out of the ordinary.
Just take a look at this chart that True Wealth editor Brett Eversole shared with his subscribers last month...
In the gold boom that began in the early 2000s, prices ran from a little more than $200 per ounce to $1,700 per ounce. But over that same period, we saw two "bear market" drawdowns, like the one gold briefly hit this morning.
Also, this has already happened during the current gold bull run. As Brett noted, gold fell more than 20% from its 2020 high to its low in 2022. So today was the second "bear market" of gold's current yearslong move higher.
Block out the noise...
Even though gold may head lower in the short term, that doesn't mean it's time to rush out and sell. Times like this may shake out leverage and speculators, leaving a healthier landscape for long-term gold investors.
According to data from Bank of America, retail investors have already poured nearly $150 billion into gold ETFs so far this year. That's nearly a 50% jump from 2025's record-setting $101 billion.
A lot of this cash is coming from folks trying to chase gold's run to record highs.
More from Dan...
Plenty of short-term speculators have jumped into gold lately. But you want to hold gold for the long term, not as a quick trade. Gold is wealth protection. And as I've outlined before, many factors will protect and increase its value.
Brett agrees. At our annual conference, he predicted that gold could eventually hit $8,000 an ounce. And he reiterated this prediction last month. More from True Wealth...
First, this boom is a full three years shorter than what we saw in the 2000s. So the enthusiasm could go on much longer.
And as for returns, gold needs to rise about 70% more to reach the overall return we saw during the last great boom. That's where my $8,000-an-ounce prediction comes from.
Brett's stance hasn't changed with the recent volatility in gold prices. It reinforces his bullish stance. Not only are pullbacks and bear markets a healthy part of the stock market, but they're common in hard assets like gold.
The ongoing volatility may push gold's price lower in the short term. As Brett's chart showed, it took more than a year to get to new highs after the 20% declines during gold's last bull run.
So the speculators may have given up. But if history is any indication, this isn't the end of gold's bull market. And after many folks have thrown in the towel... this next run higher would be under the radar.
New 52-week highs (as of 3/20/26): Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Chord Energy (CHRD), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Chevron (CVX), Equinor (EQNR), Helmerich & Payne (HP), Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY), Matador Resources (MTDR), Pembina Pipeline (PBA), USCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund (SDCI), Viper Energy (VNOM), and ExxonMobil (XOM).
In today's mailbag, feedback on Dan Ferris' Friday Digest... and Saturday's Masters Series essay from Chaikin Analytics chief market strategist Pete Carmasino... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"We, being the superior modern nation of the great Western Alliance, do forget that Iran (Persia) is a 3,000-year-old empire. It has been at the top, and it has been at the bottom. It has seen thousands of its people die, or murdered them. They are accustomed to privation and to untold wealth. And do we expect that Turkey will stand idly by as the Kurds mount an army to overthrow the Iranian government?... To think a few thousand bombs and missiles will bring Iran to heel is the folly of dying empires." – Subscriber Neil B.
"I very much enjoyed [Saturday's essay] about Michael Jordan and the lessons from the toughest game. I played golf for many years, and while I certainly never mastered the game, I learned a lot about myself in the attempt. One of the important lessons that I learned was that even though I could visualize the perfect shot, I was not necessarily going to be able to execute that shot. It therefore would be important to think about what might go wrong and minimize the consequences of a miss. I think that this sort of thinking has helped me in many other aspects of life, including investments.
"At my age, capital preservation is important. I went through a period where I was taking profits too soon and doubling down on losers. When I realized what I was doing, I called it 'cutting the flowers and watering the weeds'. Not a good practice in gardening or investing. This has been an extraordinarily difficult few weeks and I am finding it hard to sell losers, even though I understand how important it is in the long run. Booking a loss is painful.
"Thanks for your commentary." – Subscriber Deborah F.
All the best,
Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
March 23, 2026
