Decoding the AI Super Bowl... A dot-com moment... Wall Street is starting to lose its patience... The payoff clock is ticking... Big Tech is now capital-heavy...
Artificial intelligence ("AI") was all over the Super Bowl...
During the Super Bowl 60 broadcast last night, there were more multimillion-dollar AI commercials (15) than points scored on the field by the losing team, the New England Patriots (13).
AI companies OpenAI and Anthropic both had ads. Meanwhile, cable business Xfinity used AI to make the now older cast of the 1993 movie Jurassic Park look younger. And vodka-maker Svedka ran an entirely AI-generated ad featuring humanoid robots partying in a club. The tagline: Shake Your Bots Off.
In short, AI either created or was the focus of 23% of the ads for America's most-watched annual entertainment event.
Usually, when a story or technology becomes as pervasive as this, it means we're near – or at – the height of the speculation or popularity about it.
It's reminiscent of the dot-com bubble...
In January 2000, the Super Bowl featured 14 ads from different dot-com companies. A year later, brokerage firm E-Trade ran an ad mocking all the dot-com ads a year earlier, including one from the already defunct Pets.com.
That said, the Internet reshaped our lives. It's still around in a big way today. And a handful of businesses that advertised during the 2000 Super Bowl have survived, like WebMD, AutoTrader.com, and Monster.com. Notably, they're all from high-demand industries: health care, vehicles, and job-seeking, respectively.
But some of the biggest dot-com-era winners, like Amazon (AMZN), Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL), and Microsoft (MSFT), didn't have any high-priced airtime during the NFL's championship game some 25 years ago.
Facebook, now Meta Platforms (META), wasn't even created yet.
More recently, in February 2022, crypto companies were paying millions of dollars to advertise during the Super Bowl.
Later that year, one of those companies – crypto exchange FTX – went bankrupt.
A year later, zero crypto companies were featured during the Super Bowl. And this year, Coinbase (COIN) was the only crypto company to advertise during the game.
The point is, some trends and trend-following companies stick, and some don't.
Today, AI is undoubtedly becoming more pervasive in our lives. But making a long-lasting business using or selling the technology is an entirely different story.
The AI boom will have both winners and losers...
The big tech companies that ran AI ads – like Alphabet (for its Google Gemini platform), Microsoft (for Copilot), and Amazon (for Alexa) – aren't going bust anytime soon, though they are increasing spending at a parabolic rate and facing increasing expectations from Wall Street (which we'll discuss momentarily). But other firms might not be so fortunate.
I (Corey McLaughlin) suspect AI workplace assistant startup Genspark, which used AI to write the script for its ad last night, will face big competition in the years ahead. And AI.com already ran into trouble shortly after its ad ran last night. As AdWeek reported...
During the fourth quarter of Super Bowl 60, AI.com, an AI platform founded by Kris Marszalek, co-founder and CEO of Crypto.com, aired a 30-second ad imploring viewers to create a handle for the website.
Unfortunately, all the traffic from the commercial crashed the website, with viewers airing their grievances on social media...
Marszalek responded to the crash on X, saying, "Insane traffic levels. We prepared for scale, but not for THIS." Marszalek added three fire emojis to the statement.
Once the website came back online, users could sign up to create a personal AI agent that would operate on their behalf, including "organizing work, sending messages, executing actions across apps, building projects, and more."
Maybe AI.com will pick up the pieces from here... We'll see.
A lot of people think they know who the AI megatrend survivors will be, but as history and last night's big pop culture stage show, the winners and losers are still being decided.
The reality of how AI "sticks" over the next 25 years will likely fall somewhere between being the biggest tech breakthrough and greatest hope for humanity ever and a passing, dangerous fad.
But this we know: The companies that create sustainable value, have great leadership, and successfully adapt to changing consumer and business demands and concerns are the most likely to survive and thrive.
On that point, let's catch up on some Magnificent Seven earnings...
Last week, both Alphabet and Amazon released their results for the fourth quarter.
Here are the highlights...
Alphabet beat Wall Street's estimates on both earnings and revenue, while also crossing above 750 million monthly active users for its Gemini AI offerings.
Amazon reported a mixed quarter – with earnings per share coming in below expectations, but revenue beating analysts' estimates.
Our colleague and Stansberry's Investment Advisory lead editor Whitney Tilson dove deeper into the releases in two editions of his free daily e-letter on Thursday and Friday.
But the high-level numbers aren't what investors cared about...
As we've written, all eyes were on AI spending. And both companies delivered some big numbers on that front...
For 2026, Alphabet forecasts total capital expenditures ("capex") of between $175 billion and $185 billion. That's double the $90 billion the company spent on capex in 2025.
As for Amazon, the company forecasts $200 billion in capex this year, up 53% from 2025 and well above Wall Street's estimate of around $145 billion.
It's not just these two...
When you add in Meta Platforms and Microsoft, these four "hyperscalers" have pledged more than $650 billion in capex this year – up 71% from 2025. Microsoft anticipates that capex spending could exceed $150 billion in 2026.
And, as our Stansberry's Investment Advisory team wrote in the latest issue of our flagship newsletter on Friday (available for existing subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members here), Meta has been raising the stakes significantly recently...
Late last month, Meta Platforms (META) announced that its 2026 capital expenditures (or "capex") could be between $115 billion and $135 billion. That's up from "just" $72 billion in 2025.
That massive 2026 capex figure follows recent deals to boost the company's data-center capacity...
In September, Meta signed a $14.2 billion cloud-services deal with CoreWeave (CRWV), a hyperscaler that specializes in AI workloads. CoreWeave itself is expected to spend more than $26 billion on capex this year.
Meta was also reportedly in talks with Oracle (ORCL) for a $20 billion contract. Oracle spent more than $35 billion on capex last year and is expected to spend another $57 billion this year.
Including Oracle and CoreWeave, the hyperscalers will likely have more than $660 billion of capex spending this year. As the Investment Advisory team showed, that's a staggering figure, up from less than $140 billion only a few years ago...
In short, AI spending is taking off at an exponential rate. And while it may pay off in the long term if these companies establish themselves as AI leaders, it's raising plenty of questions.
Big Tech is getting a lot less 'capital efficient'...
For years, Big Tech companies produced loads of free cash flow ("FCF"). FCF is simply a company's operating cash flow minus any capex. It's a measure of how much the business has left over for things like dividends, buybacks, or further reinvestment in the business. We love companies with a lot of FCF.
And for years, the hyperscalers' Internet-based business models meant they could grow without spending more in capex. Microsoft is a great example...
It doesn't cost Microsoft extra to sell a new Office subscription, so every incremental subscription was pure profit. But that has changed with the company investing heavily in AI.
As financial writer Mike Zaccardi shared on X over the weekend, capex as a percentage of operating cash flow for the hyperscalers is set to hit an all-time high of 90% this year, up big from 65% in 2025 and less than 40% just a few years ago.
Only one of the four big companies – Microsoft – is expected to be able to cover its capex with the cash it generates from its operations this year. That means the rest are going to have to come up with the money another way – like with new debt or share offerings.
We've covered our concerns over new debt, specifically when it comes to Oracle, a few times in the Digest. Just today, Bloomberg reported that Alphabet is looking to raise $20 billion in new debt to fund its AI ambitions.
In short, the hyperscalers are losing the capital efficiency and low debt levels that made them such great investments over the past 15 years. It also means the stocks are less attractive at their high valuations. As Whitney wrote on Friday...
In the short run, it makes these companies, which previously had asset-light, high-free-cash-flow businesses, look a lot worse. If this is a permanent state of affairs, then these stocks deserve a much lower multiple and should be sold.
Some investors are already selling...
The Roundhill Magnificent Seven Fund (MAGS) last made a high in late October. It's down more than 8% since.
Over the same period, the S&P 500 Index is up slightly. And the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Fund (RSP) – which nullifies the S&P 500's high concentration of Magnificent Seven stocks by giving equal weight to each of the index's companies – is up around 7%.
People are losing their patience when it comes to AI spending. And when you couple high capex with expensive valuations (each of the hyperscalers has a price-to-earnings multiple above the average S&P 500 company), the investing case for these stocks is murky.
That's not to say we believe the AI bubble has "popped," or you should rush out and sell your shares of the hyperscalers.
But the market's reaction to 2026's spending increases is a reason for caution. Investors are starting to demand a "payoff" from all this investment. They want more than spending plans... and Super Bowl ads.
New 52-week highs (as of 2/6/26): Allegion (ALLE), Amgen (AMGN), Atmus Filtration Technologies (ATMU), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Brady (BRC), British American Tobacco (BTI), Century Aluminum (CENX), CME Group (CME), Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 Fund (COWZ), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Donaldson (DCI), WisdomTree Japan SmallCap Dividend Fund (DFJ), DXP Enterprises (DXPE), Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Fund (EMD), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield Fund (EYLD), Fanuc (FANUY), FirstCash (FCFS), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), Franklin FTSE Japan Fund (FLJP), Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield Fund (FYLD), Gilead Sciences (GILD), W.W. Grainger (GWW), Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE), Hershey (HSY), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Coca-Cola (KO), Lamar Advertising (LAMR), Lincoln Electric (LECO), Lumentum (LITE), McDonald's (MCD), Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY), Monster Beverage (MNST), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Merck (MRK), Natural Resource Partners (NRP), Nucor (NUE), Novartis (NVS), Nexstar Media (NXST), Pembina Pipeline (PBA), PepsiCo (PEP), Packaging Corporation of America (PKG), Invesco Oil & Gas Services Fund (PXJ), Ryder System (R), Roche (RHHBY), Roivant Sciences (ROIV), Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Staples Fund (RSPS), SandRidge Energy (SD), State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value Fund (SPYV), Travelers (TRV), Tenaris (TS), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), Twist Bioscience (TWST), Valaris (VAL), Telefônica Brasil (VIV), Valero Energy (VLO), State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI), State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), and ExxonMobil (XOM).
In today's mailbag, a happy subscriber checks in with his thoughts on silver... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Hi Corey and Dan,
"I'm a naturally cautious investor but have believed in the bull case for silver for a while. I'm subscribed to a number of publications including Commodities Supercycles, Extreme Value, True Wealth, and Retirement Millionaire (among others). I also closely follow Greg Diamond's work in Ten Stock Trader to give me the confidence to stay in the market and help me hedge my investments.
"When everyone was noting the low downside risk in silver and high upside risk during the past few years, I bought small call options contracts dated out a year and renewed them each year as well as buying stock in silver miners. When silver went parabolic, I was able to use Greg Diamond's analysis to safely stay in longer than I would have imagined I had the fortitude to do. Then I realized gains at the top in the options and am looking to reload again based on analysis from Greg, Dan, etc...
"This has been the most fun I've had investing since I started in 2020 and most profit I've made while taking low risk. Having one minor trade (less than 1% of portfolio) increase my portfolio value 20% is a good feeling, especially for a risk-averse coward like me.
"Thanks to everyone at Stansberry for giving me the data to have the confidence to stick to my guns and let my winners ride until it was time to get out!" – Subscriber Anders W.
Corey McLaughlin comment: Thanks for the note, Anders, and glad to hear it. May we all be so cowardly! And may cowardice always be so lucrative.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
February 9, 2026
