A 14-point plan... Still "too soon" for a deal... AMD's blowout quarter... Tipping our hat to The Total Portfolio... Big tech is heavily reliant on AI startups... Hiring's at a two-year high... Why the Fed's focus is now back on inflation...
The deal was there, until it wasn't...
Early this morning, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran were close to agreeing on a "one-page memorandum of understanding" to end the Iran conflict. The memo included 14 "points" – like a 30-day negotiating period to finalize a deal and a temporary ban on Iranian uranium enrichment.
Shortly after, in a Truth Social post, President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will be "OPEN TO ALL" if Iran agrees to "give what has been agreed to."
Those headlines sent stocks higher and oil crashing, with West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") crude falling below $90 per barrel.
But just before 9 a.m. Eastern time, Trump told the New York Post that it's "too soon" to make a deal with Iran.
Markets reversed a bit after those headlines, with stocks giving back some of their gains and WTI jumping back around $95 per barrel.
However, as we've covered in recent weeks, the market seems to believe that we're getting closer to the end of the conflict.
Both the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index hit new all-time highs this afternoon, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 1% – near its February high.
Elsewhere, the 'melt up' in semiconductors rages on...
Chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported its first-quarter earnings yesterday after market close. The company beat Wall Street's expectations on both earnings and revenue. Sales surged 38% in the quarter from the same period a year ago, with revenue in its data center and AI segment up 57% year over year.
CEO Lisa Su said that the company's data-center business is now the "primary driver" of AMD's growth. On the company's earnings call, Su said that AMD expects to cross above $10 billion in quarterly revenue for its data-center business next year – about as much as the company's total revenue at the end of the first quarter.
Total Portfolio subscribers heard it first...
In the March issue of The Total Portfolio, senior research analyst Brett Eversole wrote that AMD hadn't taken off like other semiconductor stocks at the time, and it was trading near multiyear lows on a price-to-earnings basis.
It turned out to be a great call...
AMD's shares are up around 20% today. And they're up 112% since the Portfolio Solutions team recommended them in March.
AI companies are still spending...
Last week, Alphabet (GOOGL) announced that it will invest an initial $10 billion and up to $40 billion in AI startup Anthropic over the next few years.
Then, last night, digital news outlet the Information reported that Anthropic has agreed to spend $200 billion on chips and cloud computing from Alphabet's Google over the next five years. Anthropic now makes up more than 40% of Google's cloud-revenue backlog.
It's simply more evidence of the "circular" financing we've seen in the AI space over the past year.
In short, companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Alphabet are investing billions of dollars in AI startups like OpenAI. These companies then use the funds to buy chips or computing power back from the investing company.
We've shared this image from Bloomberg in previous Digests, showing just how interconnected the AI-investment landscape is:
If just one of these companies falls through on its orders or investments, the entire web collapses.
As the Information founder Jessica Lessin shared on social platform X, OpenAI and Anthropic make up about half of Microsoft, Google, Amazon (AMZN), and Oracle's (ORCL) collective cloud-services backlog. Take a look...
We've written a few times about how OpenAI is a bellwether of the AI bubble. Trouble for OpenAI could be the first signs of a peak.
And just last week, there were reports that OpenAI is falling behind on its revenue goals.
From the April 28 Digest...
Today is just one day, but if things are as bad at OpenAI as this latest report suggests, and if the company pulls out the rug on most or all of its spending promises, look out for the companies that have been known as the "AI leaders" in the past few years.
While its spending commitments aren't as large as OpenAI's, Anthropic has pledged to spend $330 billion on chips, computing, and other tools from Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon.
That's enough to make Anthropic another company to watch in the AI space. If, like OpenAI, it falls short of its revenue goals, it won't be able to meet its spending obligations.
If either – or both – of those startups has any hiccups in its growth story, it could take the wind right out of the AI boom's sails.
In other news, hiring hits a two-year high...
In Tuesday's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that hires jumped to 5.55 million in March. That's the most hires in a month since February 2024.
Payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) showed that the private sector added 109,000 jobs in its April jobs report. That was more than the 61,000 jobs added in March and beat Wall Street's expectation for 84,000 jobs. By ADP's measure, private payrolls have now increased every month since June 2025.
You can bet the Federal Reserve will be keeping its eye on this data.
During last month's meeting – where the Fed held its benchmark federal-funds rates steady – three voters wanted to take out language in the Fed's post-meeting statement that suggested a rate cut could still be appropriate.
If the labor market is stable and adding jobs, the economy doesn't need rate cuts for support. Instead, the Fed could turn its focus solely back to inflation, which is rising at its fastest pace since May 2023.
According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders see a higher chance of a rate hike than a rate cut by the end of 2026.
The Fed will meet again in June, which will likely mark the first meeting for Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair. If Warsh doesn't show an inclination to cut rates, he could find himself in Trump's crosshairs (Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell for not lowering rates). We could also see some market volatility as investors reprice stocks based on a higher-rate environment.
But there will be a lot more data to come between now and June – including Friday's labor market report.
New 52-week highs (as of 5/5/26): ABB (ABBNY), Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI), Amazon (AMZN), Air Products and Chemicals (APD), Broadcom (AVGO), CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), Ciena (CIEN), Cisco Systems (CSCO), DigitalOcean (DOCN), DXP Enterprises (DXPE), Ecovyst (ECVT), Emcor (EME), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Fund (EMXC), EnerSys (ENS), iShares MSCI South Korea Fund (EWY), Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield Fund (EYLD), FirstCash (FCFS), Flex LNG (FLNG), Alphabet (GOOGL), Helmerich & Payne (HP), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), iShares Convertible Bond Fund (ICVT), Intel (INTC), KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index Fund (KBA), KraneShares Global Humanoid Robotics and Physical AI Index Fund (KOID), Keyence (KYCCF), Lumentum (LITE), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Nucor (NUE), Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy Fund (PBW), ProShares Ultra Technology (ROM), USCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund (SDCI), U.S. Global Sea to Sky Cargo Fund (SEA), Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS), State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value Fund (SPYV), and State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor Fund (XSD).
In today's mailbag, feedback on yesterday's Digest, which discussed rising gas prices... and another reply to a question recently raised by a subscriber in the mail... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"[Yesterday you wrote] '... pity the Californians paying $6.13 per gallon of regular gas... ' Well, here in the UK we are paying a minimum of £1.55 per litre for gas (or petrol as we call it). That is [around $8.50] per gallon. Diesel is [near $10.50] per gallon. How do you like that?" – Subscriber S.J.I.
"In answer to your question: What would I give up [to help lower government spending], Let me say this: Long, long ago (I'm really old, see) in civics class we were taught that the federal government had two basic jobs – to provide for the common defense and to protect our liberties within the union. Sometimes those things (and others) get partnered with state governments, for example building and maintaining roads which is mostly a state responsibility, but with the invention of the interstate road system, now the federal government gets involved. Protecting liberties is mostly done through the courts which encompasses both local, state and federal systems including prison, parole, etc.
"But in the last 50 years or so and especially in the last 25, we (meaning the U.S. collectively) have expanded the scope of both the federal and state governments into a Great Big Expensive Babysitter. And the younger a person is, the more they seem to be willing to embrace the sitter.
"I don't need anything from government except the military, the court system (which I haven't needed yet, thank God) and the infrastructure built and maintained – a duty of which both the feds and the states do a terrible job." – Stansberry Alliance member Jacqueline G.
All the best,
Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
May 6, 2026
