Inflation is 'hot' again... Another rate hike – or more – on the way... Everything is a 'shock' to the Fed... Anthropic gets some friendly help... 'Forget the Anthropic IPO'... Marc Chaikin's summit is tomorrow... Greg Diamond's 'buying opportunity'...
Surprise! Inflation is 'hot' again...
In news that was a surprise to no one (except some folks at the Federal Reserve) this morning, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS") said the consumer price index ("CPI") rose 0.4% in October... above the 0.3% economists expected. Food prices rose 0.5%, energy 0.7%, and gasoline 1%.
Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.3% versus a 0.2% forecast. That's the third straight month of 0.3% core readings, which works out to a 3.6% annualized pace.
In short, the pace of inflation is rising well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, as it has been for months now...
Meantime, real average earnings for private-sector workers were flat, meaning paychecks didn't keep up with price increases last month. Inflation... It's hot. Again.
Another rate hike – or more – is likely on the way...
Fed Governor Christopher Waller laid out the scenario just before the report was released today, in prepared remarks from London.
Waller said he was already leaning toward a quarter-point hike at the Fed's December 8-9 meeting... but if core CPI came in around 0.3% or higher, "I believe a 50-basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered..."
Well, it did.
Today, the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5% for the first time in two weeks, and the 2-year yield – more sensitive to Fed policy – jumped 17 basis points to 4.75%, implying market expectations for an additional rate hike that weren't present yesterday.
Federal-funds futures traders now see a December hike as a lock. The odds of a half-point move jumped to about 10% from 0% yesterday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Absent a 50-point hike next month, sustained inflation readings like this could mean a quicker schedule of smaller rate increases down the road.
At a different event today, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, a voting member of the Fed's policy committee this year, said she thinks the Fed's benchmark rate is 50 basis points below a "modestly restrictive level."
She said she'd prefer to get there gradually, in quarter-point steps, but that "it may be possible to move more rapidly this winter."
Between Waller and Logan, the debate inside the Fed is no longer whether to hike. It's how much or how quickly. Take note.
The better news?
Stocks more or less took this in stride. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index were each down less than 1% today – an orderly, "appropriate" reaction to a world with a more expensive cost of money.
The consumer staples, energy, financials, healthcare, and communications sectors of the S&P 500 were slightly higher. The equal-weight S&P 500 was little changed.
Where's the annual number?...
You may have noticed something missing from today's inflation headlines: the year-over-year inflation rate.
The BLS didn't publish one. It put the blame for that on last year's 43-day government shutdown, from October 1 to November 12, 2025. (Remember when?)
The agency couldn't collect prices that month and never put out an October 2025 index. So there was no baseline for a 12-month comparison.
Uncle Sam could have come up with some approximation, though the extra effort would have just attracted more attention to "above expectation" inflation results. Again.
Heading into today, the median of economist estimates compiled by FactSet put "imputed" headline inflation around 4% – up from 3.7% in September – and core inflation at around 2.8%, up from 2.6%. Today's numbers came in hotter than the forecasts.
Everything is a 'shock' to the Federal Reserve...
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee was out on Monday saying strong demand – including booming investment in AI – may now be adding to inflation, on top of the supply shock from higher oil prices. He has been calling AI spending a "demand shock."
Really?
For the past couple of years, Fed officials have pointed to the AI build-out as a big reason GDP growth has held up. We've been writing about it for years. Now the same spending is a "shock"?
It's the same stuff, different day.
Back during the pandemic, it was a supply and demand shock that caused inflation, according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. More recently, there was a tariff shock... Now it's the AI shock... I (Corey McLaughlin) am sure I'm forgetting many others, because when everything is shocking, nothing really is.
Here's the point: The central bank is behind the curve... again. Even with new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the same policy mistakes and deficiencies of past years are being made and revealed as we speak.
What does this mean for your money?
Well, aside from a reminder that inflation is alive and well, it means higher short-term rates are likely coming in December... and maybe at a greater scale than the market expected a week ago.
Such a shift makes every dollar of borrowing more expensive – including the debt funding much of the AI build-out...
Anthropic gets some friendly help...
Speaking of the AI boom... Anthropic filed an updated prospectus today, revealing more detailed terms of what would be one of the largest initial public offerings ("IPO") ever.
The Claude maker plans to sell 825 million shares at $70 to $78 apiece. At the top of the range, that would bring in about $64.35 billion at a valuation of around $1 trillion. Counting employee stock options and other securities, the valuation could be closer to $1.45 trillion.
Trading could start as soon as November 19, two days after Nvidia (NVDA) reports earnings.
But the more interesting part is who's already buying...
Seven tech companies – Alphabet (GOOGL), Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Broadcom (AVGO), Micron Technology (MU), Microsoft (MSFT), and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's (TSM) investment arm – have agreed to buy $26 billion of Anthropic stock in a private placement at the IPO price. Alphabet and Nvidia are in for about $10 billion each. And those shares won't be subject to the usual lockup agreements.
In total, the IPO is set to bring in roughly $90 billion, not far from the $100 billion Anthropic originally hoped to raise.
But the concern is that Big Tech is "saving" this IPO – similar to how Nvidia anchored "neocloud" CoreWeave's (CRWV) downsized IPO in March 2025 with a roughly $250 million share order. CoreWeave's CEO said at the time that without Nvidia, the deal "wouldn't have closed."
Many of these companies sell Anthropic the chips and cloud capacity it runs on. Now they're helping fund the purchases. It's the same circular flow of AI money we've been writing about for several years now on a public stage. It works – until it doesn't.
'Forget the Anthropic IPO'...
That's what Marc Chaikin, founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics, is telling folks, as he wrote in a note to Stansberry Research readers today.
Marc says a much bigger event is coming this month: what he calls an "election aftershock" driven by a $10.3 trillion market anomaly. He believes it will send trillions of dollars out of one class of AI stocks and into another – with ripple effects in energy, construction, and oil stocks, too.
Get on the right side of this move, Marc says, and you could double your money or more... starting as soon as next week. The last time he predicted this anomaly four years ago, his signals led to gains of 289% on NGL Energy Partners (NGL), 440% on Limbach (LMB), and 523% on Nvidia, in some cases within months.
Marc is laying out his full outlook and battle plan tomorrow at his Election Aftershock Summit. That includes the stocks to buy and sell now... his outlook for AI stocks through 2027... and one stock he says could crush Anthropic over the next eight to 12 months.
The event is free and goes live tomorrow at 10 a.m. Eastern time. Marc just asks that you sign up in advance. Click here to reserve your spot.
Greg Diamond on the post-midterm 'buying opportunity'...
Our colleague Greg Diamond, editor of Ten Stock Trader and a master technical analyst, has a similar view...
He has been banging the table about a post-midterm buying opportunity. You can watch his new, free presentation right here.
Greg studied all 32 midterm elections going back to 1902 and found the same pattern again and again: choppy trading into the vote, then a rally after the results came out.
Last week's sell-off didn't change his mind. In an update yesterday to Ten Stock Trader subscribers, titled "A Tremendous Buying Opportunity in a Rocky Market," Greg laid out why he sees the recent volatility as a setup, not a breakdown.
Greg also joined our colleague Dan Ferris on the Stansberry Investor Hour, recorded on Election Day, November 3, to talk about what he sees ahead. Here are a few highlights, edited for length and clarity...
Dan Ferris: What's the focus of your new presentation?
Greg Diamond: I went back to 1900 and looked at every single midterm election and the outcome for the stock market. Take political bias aside – whether a Republican president gains or loses the House or the Senate – I averaged all those price paths. Long story short, it doesn't matter who wins or loses. I think the market is bottoming out here, and we're set up for a big rally.
We're seeing an extreme amount of fear – calls for the AI bubble to pop, inflation, Iran, oil, go down the list. Bull markets climb a "wall of worry." I'd call this the last innings of the bull market. Probably this time next year, I won't have a similar outlook. But for now, based on the data, we're setting up for a rally.
Dan: Why do elections create these opportunities?
Greg: The market doesn't like uncertainty, and elections are mostly uncertainty. Regardless of the outcome, the market can say, "OK, now we know who's in control," and start discounting the future. Democrats, Republicans – they're not going to stop spending.
When you get that certainty on top of a wall of worry and positioning that's very negative – hedge funds have been selling stocks at record levels – that's what creates lows. To me, that's an opportunity to trade from the long side.
Dan: We're recording this on Election Day. So is today the buy moment?
Greg: It could be. In 2016, it went from uncertainty to certainty basically overnight, and the market took off. That might happen. But I'm looking out about five or six trading days. If there's more uncertainty – more votes to count, something unexpected with Iran, more earnings, especially with the volatility we've seen in tech, semiconductors, and AI – that, to me, is a tremendous window for some great trading opportunities. [Editor's note: Last Thursday's sell-off landed right in that window.]
Dan: A lot of people think the AI bull market is over. Do you see a crash coming?
Greg: A major top is when you see liquidation. Everything is down. Everything is getting hammered. Right now, financials are back toward all-time highs, while stocks like Intel and the quantum names have gotten hit. That kind of rotation isn't typical of a major top. I understand the concerns about an AI bubble. But to me, it's not indicative of a major crash right now.
Dan: None of this means you can forget about risk management...
Greg: There's no holy grail. We deal in probabilities. I trade long options. It's very risky what I do, but I manage that risk based on probabilities and data, not my personal beliefs.
I like a line from Jack Schwager's [book] Market Wizards: "Play good defense and you'll have a chance." Ask yourself, what's your number – the point where you get uncomfortable? Hit that number, get out. If the market turns again, you can always get back in.
In the full episode, Greg also shares that he's also seeing one of the best bitcoin setups of his career. Click here to watch it on our YouTube page.
Greg uses recurring market cycles like these to find what he calls "Doubling Windows" – short stretches when a stock or fund is primed for a big move – and trades them with options.
His track record includes 28 trades that returned 100% or more in 18 days or less. He believes the post-midterm rally has opened another window that could let folks double their money in as little as 18 days. Click here to hear Greg's message now − before it's too late to take advantage.
New 52-week highs (as of 11/9/26): American Financial (AFG), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), Disney (DIS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), St. Joe (JOE), Coca-Cola (KO), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Procter & Gamble (PG), Roche (RHHBY), SharkNinja (SN), Tradeweb Markets (TW), and Veralto (VLTO).
In today's mailbag, more on the midterm-election results and the market's reaction to them... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"One thing I think was a major factor in why a lot of Independents voted Democrat was the failure of the Trump administration to make even a dent in the unaffordability of homeownership for people under 40 years old. Without a real shot at homeownership, many young people feel the 'American Dream' is sailing away.
"As for the stock market rout, as people feared that Democrat policy proposals will destroy the economy (ending data centers, hiking taxes, more unnecessary regulation, and endless lawfare just for spite), the selling started wholesale... I think all the selling is a gross overreaction and by mid-December at least half of the losses will have been reversed." – Subscriber Jim P.
Corey McLaughlin comment: Reasonable... As I've been writing, we wouldn't be surprised to see a near-term bounce for many stocks. That said, we're still concerned that the "worst" of an AI burst has yet to be seen, though it might take longer than some think to get there. I'm reminded of Dan's mantra: "Prepare, don't predict."
"Regarding the political commentary of David J. and others, as an independent (the true majority), I grow tired of the constant complaining of 'liberal' and 'conservative' outcomes affecting our monetary lives. Regardless of who is making policy, the results are the same... 'Borrow & Spend' Republicans or 'Tax & Spend' Democrats, leaving a deficit that our grandkids will be responsible for." – Subscriber Ted B.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
November 10, 2026
