OpenAI still isn't making enough money... A 'dark AI crisis' is coming... What to do about it... A lot of news on the war in Iran... Economic pressure is mounting... Oil prices keep going higher...
You couldn't write the story any worse...
A Wall Street Journal report this morning painted a sour picture for OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT... saying the company "recently missed its own targets for new users and revenue" and that its chief financial officer is concerned it's overcommitted to spending on data centers...
Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told other company leaders that she is worried the company might not be able to pay for future computing contracts if revenue doesn't grow fast enough, according to people familiar with the matter.
Board directors have also more closely examined the company's data-center deals in recent months and questioned Chief Executive Sam Altman's efforts to secure even more computing power despite the business slowdown, the people said.
Altman and Friar didn't deny those facts in a statement to the Journal, saying, "We are totally aligned on buying as much compute as we can." That doesn't mean it will turn things around, though.
Every so often, a report about a single company – and in this case, a private one – can significantly move the market. This one sent shares of a handful of businesses with ties to OpenAI down in sympathy...
Oracle (ORCL) and Broadcom (AVGO) were down about 4% today, continuing a pullback over the past few days, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares fell around 3%, and Nvidia (NVDA) lost more than 1%.
We also saw real estate and infrastructure firms with data center exposure down too.
The negative sentiment weighed on the overall market and tech stocks in particular. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index and small-cap Russell 2000 Index lost around 1%, and the benchmark S&P 500 Index was down 0.5%.
We've been warning about the risks of this sort of "circular" scenario over the past year.
In short, companies like Nvidia and AMD have invested in OpenAI to be the firm's primary chip suppliers. In return, OpenAI has essentially promised future spending (some $600 billion) for these and other companies to develop the data centers and infrastructure needed to grow AI's footprint.
This dynamic has fueled buzz about OpenAI's business – without the needed revenue to justify it. ChatGPT is no doubt a useful, breakthrough product, but is OpenAI's business profitable? Not so much. Yet, it has played a large part in the rising expectations for all AI businesses over the past few years.
We wrote about OpenAI and its web of deals with Nvidia, Oracle, AMD, Microsoft (MSFT), CoreWeave (CRWV), and others in February. And we shared the take of our Stansberry's Investment Advisory editor Whitney Tilson...
These circular relationships can keep a company like OpenAI going for a long time – but can collapse quickly. And I think we've reached a tipping point.
Today is just one day, but if things are as bad at OpenAI as this latest report suggests, and if the company pulls out the rug on most or all of its spending promises, look out for the companies that have been known as the "AI leaders" in the past few years.
Oracle alone is expecting to collect $300 billion from OpenAI over the next five years to provide data-center compute power.
While we're on the subject of AI...
You may have seen an e-mail or two from us about this already, but I (Corey McLaughlin) want to make sure all Digest readers hear about it...
Marc Chaikin, our friend and founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics, has been warning about an AI fallout. As Marc says...
The Mag Seven companies who've carried this market higher for three years are about to hit a brick wall.
Not because their businesses are failing or anything you've seen in the headlines.
But because of a structural problem so fundamental... so deeply embedded in the future of AI itself... that it could paralyze shares of Mag Seven companies almost overnight and cause millions of Nvidia's AI chips to go dark.
In short, Marc says the entire AI market is facing a limitation that can't be designed away in a lab by Nvidia's engineers or anyone else... It's a "dark AI" crisis, and tomorrow, Marc is debuting a new free presentation to discuss all the details.
Marc will be joined by a Silicon Valley insider and AI expert who has spent three decades in executive roles helping develop the next generation of chips, like those powering today's AI bull market.
Together, these investing legends will explain everything you need to know about this crisis, including how a similar scenario once caused a nearly 80% crash in tech stocks. They'll reveal why many investors could see unbearable losses in America's favorite AI companies this time around. However, it's not all bad news. As they'll explain, investors could also see incredible 10 times opportunities in a group of stocks that will replace the "old guard."
For example, one company slated to go public in the largest AI IPO in history is well positioned to soar as this story plays out. And just for tuning in to the presentation tomorrow, you'll hear a ticker that will allow anyone to claim a stake in this company before it goes public.
For all the details, click here to register for the event now.
Meanwhile, on the war front...
The double-sided blockade of the Persian Gulf remains in place... and President Donald Trump reportedly plans to reject a "deal" to re-open the Strait of Hormuz because it doesn't include an agreement about Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Another consequence of the war has also emerged. The United Arab Emirates ("UAE") said this morning that it's leaving the OPEC oil cartel and OPEC+ group (headed by Russia), effective this Friday.
The UAE is one of the world's largest oil producers and has been part of OPEC since 1967. So this is a shakeup to the global energy scene. But in recent years, despite increased energy-production capacity, the UAE hasn't been able to sell as much oil as it wanted because of OPEC quotas. We'll have more on this story tomorrow.
Looking ahead, things should break one way or another in Iran relatively soon. The country has two or three weeks left of unused oil supply, Bloomberg reports. And Iranian security officials are becoming more concerned about societal unrest...
According to the "independent" outlet Iran International (which has ties to Saudi investors), Iran's Supreme National Security Council met in recent days to discuss a possible resurgence of public protests as economic effects of the war grow in Iran...
Estimates shared during the meeting suggested that Iran's economy may not be able to withstand more than six to eight weeks of a naval blockade. The blockade began on April 13, and around two weeks have now passed.
Another major concern raised was the near-total shutdown of production centers in key sectors, including oil, petrochemicals, and steel. According to the assessments, rebuilding these industries could take years.
Security officials also said internet shutdowns have left around 20% of the workforce dependent on online activity unemployed. They warned that, based on economic forecasts, an additional two million people could lose their jobs in the private sector by the end of spring.
Last week, Trump said he has "all the time in the World, but Iran doesn't – The clock is ticking!" He's not wrong.
The White House appears content to wait things out as the pressure builds. Just before the market opened today, Trump published a Truth Social update that essentially held firm on keeping up the Strait of Hormuz blockade...
Iran has just informed us that they are in a "State of Collapse." They want us to "Open the Hormuz Strait" as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!).
We shall see.
We've recently read reports that the power vacuum in Iran has only emboldened "hardliners" – those in Iran's Revolutionary Guard who are more inclined to try to break the U.S. Navy blockade. The former head of Iran's negotiating team was also forced to resign for trying to include the nuclear issue in new negotiations with the U.S.
In the end, oil and gas again didn't flow as they once did through the Persian Gulf. Oil futures continued to move higher. Brent crude is near $111 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate is at $100. And it looked like the early days of the Iran War in terms of market reaction.
Only the energy sector was up significantly (almost 2%). Plus, typically defensive consumer staples stocks gained about 1%. A number of names from both sectors helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average be the only major U.S. index to finish little changed.
New 52-week highs (as of 4/27/26): Canadian National Railway (CNI), DigitalOcean (DOCN), Emcor (EME), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Fund (EMXC), EnerSys (ENS), iShares MSCI South Korea Fund (EWY), Alphabet (GOOGL), Helmerich & Payne (HP), Intel (INTC), KraneShares Global Humanoid and Embodied Intelligence Index Fund (KOID), Keyence (KYCCF), Liberty Energy (LBRT), Linde (LIN), Nucor (NUE), Nvidia (NVDA), Invesco Oil & Gas Services Fund (PXJ), ProShares Ultra Technology (ROM), USCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund (SDCI), and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM).
Nothing happening in the mail today... What's on your mind? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
April 28, 2026
