Diesel prices have soared... When things can't move, the economy dies... A global crisis... The Iran war has highlighted vulnerabilities... Opportunity in crisis...
The crisis I've been warning about is here...
As I explained earlier this month, even without the war in Iran, we've been facing a global supply shortage of oil and gas.
You see, our modern standard of living is built around energy. The AI boom is only increasing demand.
But since 2019, most of U.S. investment in oil and gas production – nearly 90% of it – hasn't gone into growing global oil production. It has simply gone into offsetting production declines. America's supply of refined products like diesel fuel is also contracting as refineries go dark.
These trends have been on a collision course destined to push oil, gas, and diesel prices higher. For example, Brent crude, the international benchmark, is up more than 50% this year.
And the average daily diesel price has soared 43% since February 27 – the day before the Iran war started.
In short, the Iran war accelerated the timeline... and the crisis has begun.
When things can't move, the economy dies...
Most of us don't think about how goods arrive at our doors. We simply click "buy" online, and they show up.
But the truth is, we all rely on trucks for the items we consume.
As I told Ferris Report subscribers in December, "[Diesel's] use in trucking correlates nearly perfectly with U.S. GDP growth."
There are 15 million commercial trucks in the U.S., 76% of which run on diesel. About 97% of the largest tractor trailers (known as Class 8 vehicles) run on diesel.
International trade relies on diesel trucks, too. The U.S.'s two biggest trading partners are Mexico and Canada. Roughly two-thirds of surface trade (trucks, rail, and pipelines) with Canada is hauled by trucks, as is roughly 85% of surface trade with Mexico.
Truckers are already suffering from higher diesel prices.
On March 22, the Wall Street Journal told the story of long-haul trucker Miguel Caveda. He paid $1,800 for diesel on a recent trip – 40% more than he paid just one month ago. Caveda told the Journal:
Any major repair, like, god forbid an engine failure or anything like that, I'm out of the business. I'm out.
I wonder how many others are on the brink of severe financial distress right now. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics says there are roughly 923,000 independent trucking owner operators like Caveda. One report noted that "owner operators form the backbone of the American freight system."
The freight system these days is like a middle-aged man who has done too much heavy lifting. Now it's having severe back pain. Caveda and others are already avoiding some of the work that causes that pain. As the Journal reported:
The sudden surge in diesel prices has eroded Caveda's profit and upended his business in other ways, too. He has started searching out lighter hauls and avoiding hilly routes that guzzle fuel. He is also keenly aware that the steeper fuel costs will eventually trickle into the prices consumers pay for goods he is carrying—from tires to watermelon—assuming his business survives.
Taking lighter hauls and fewer hilly routes means hauling fewer goods over longer distances. And the dramatic increase in shipping costs means we'll soon be paying more for those goods.
For example, Bloomberg reported on Roger Conner, whose company sells firewood:
[Diesel] powers every step of the supply chain for [Conner's] company, RC Conner Enterprises: the megatrucks that carry the logs from suppliers to his facility in Exeter, New Hampshire; the machines that offload and process those logs into kiln-dried residential and restaurant-grade firewood; and the trucks that deliver the finished bundles and cords to customers across New England.
In a normal year, Conner told Bloomberg he would spend $6,800 a month on diesel. Now, he pays $11,000 a month for diesel fuel. So Conner has had to add a 5% fuel surcharge to his prices.
Conner says if prices keep rising, he'll have to keep raising rates and will likely lose customers. As he told Bloomberg:
This is going to cripple our economy. I don't think people think about how much the economy rides on diesel fuel.
One economist says current diesel prices alone will push up the consumer price index by 0.4%.
And it's not just the U.S...
Australia is the most diesel-reliant economy in the world. As Bloomberg reports:
No major economy uses the fuel more lavishly. Consumption runs to about 7.7 barrels per person, per year, sufficient to fill the tank on a Ford Motor Co. F-150 pickup nine times over. That's about 80% above US levels, and eight times more than China.
The Australian economy was once based entirely on wool. Now, as Bloomberg puts it, the Australian economy "floats on a lake of diesel."
It makes sense. Australia has a population roughly the size of Florida's, spread over a continent nearly the size of the U.S. Cities are often more than 600 miles apart, with goods moving between them via three- and four-trailer "road trains."
Decades of bad government policy provided taxpayer-funded diesel fuel rebates to industrial users, incentivizing wasteful use. Now, Australian diesel prices have risen more than 50% since the Iran war started, and supply shortages loom.
Meanwhile, Brazil is the largest grower and exporter of soybeans, accounting for 40% of global production. It's peak soybean-shipping season, and roughly 55% of the soy crop gets to export centers by truck. Since the start of the year, Brazilian soybean growers have been getting paid 15% less, and freight costs have risen between 40% and 80%.
The Philippines imports 90% of its oil from the Middle East. The Iran war has cut off its fuel supply, and it now relies on Russia, China, and other Asian countries for its critical energy.
Those are some potentially difficult folks to do business with, so the government declared a national energy emergency on Tuesday. The country's president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., said high oil prices now threaten the Philippines' energy security. It has less than two months' supply of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
Philippine diesel prices have doubled to $2 per liter ($7.57 per gallon). This morning, the New York Times reported that Philippine transport workers are striking due to high fuel prices. This includes drivers of jeepneys, the country's iconic, brightly colored public utility vehicles.
In Germany, diesel rose to $2.62 per liter ($9.92 per gallon) earlier this month. On Thursday, the government approved a "price brake," limiting gas stations to one price increase per day for gasoline and diesel.
That's how bad the crisis is there. Germans are paying nearly $9 for a gallon of diesel, and gas stations want to increase prices multiple times per day. Of course, anyone who understands economics knows that capping prices will just make the shortage worse.
Three days ago, Slovenia became the first European country to impose fuel rationing. Newsweek reports:
Under measures announced over the weekend, private motorists were limited to purchasing up to 50 liters, about 13 gallons, per day, while companies and priority users such as farmers were capped at 200 liters, about 52 gallons, with the restrictions in effect until further notice.
And according to Shell CEO Wael Sawan, the crisis is just getting started in Europe:
South Asia was first to get that brunt. That's moved to Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and then more so into Europe as we get into April.
Folks in India are also panicking about likely fuel shortages, despite the state-run oil companies denying that a shortage exists. Folks are buying as much fuel as they can. The government has lowered fuel taxes to help buyers out.
As the world's third-largest crude oil importer, the country will be hit by higher oil prices, but as a net exporter of refined products, it has so far avoided large price increases on gasoline and diesel.
Let's be clear...
While the Iran war accelerated the fuel crisis, the source has always been the decline in supply. As I wrote to Ferris Report subscribers in December:
[The U.S. Energy Information Administration ("EIA")] is forecasting that in 2026, total inventories of gasoline, distillate fuel oil (which includes diesel), and jet fuel will hit their lowest levels since 2000. A March 2025 EIA forecast said jet fuel inventories could hit their lowest levels since 1963.
Last year, the EIA forecast diesel inventories would end 2025 and 2026 at multiyear lows.
The Iran war has simply revealed big vulnerabilities in fuel supply and demand. Even if the war ends soon and tankers are once again free to sail the Strait of Hormuz, the long-term supply picture still stands.
That's why I've said energy stocks are "the trade of the year... maybe the decade."
The two energy stocks I recommended in The Ferris Report in December are up more than 50%. One of the stocks I recommended in the February issue is up more than 20% already.
And energy stocks aren't the only opportunity the Iran war has highlighted.
In the March issue of The Ferris Report, out today, I show subscribers the wealth-generating potential of a new technology that has dramatically changed the nature of warfare. (Ferris Report subscribers can find the issue right here. If you don't already have a subscription to The Ferris Report, you can learn more here.)
You see, where there's crisis, there's opportunity. And investors who position themselves properly can profit.
An Update on SAM's Tactical Select Strategy
"In order to survive and thrive in today's market environment, investors must thread a very fine needle," says Austin Root, chief investment officer of Stansberry Asset Management ("SAM").
That thinking sits at the center of SAM's Tactical Select strategy. SAM – a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission-registered investment adviser, separate from our publishing businesses – developed this strategy to handle market environments like the one we are experiencing today.
By combining deep fundamental research with quantitative analytics drawn from multiple sources – including tools from Chaikin Analytics, TradeSmith, Stansberry Research, and SAM's own proprietary models – Tactical Select was designed to participate in market upside while managing downside risk.
Since launching in February 2023, Tactical Select has done what SAM hoped – it has outperformed its benchmark by 1,700 basis points (net of fees) as of January 31.
In a newly released webinar, Austin and SAM Deputy Chief Investment Officer Michael Joseph walk through how this disciplined framework has been applied across real market conditions, offering investors a practical look at how this strategy is designed to navigate uncertainty while remaining positioned for opportunity.
Click here to watch the on-demand webinar now!
New 52-week highs (as of 3/26/26): Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), BP (BP), Chord Energy (CHRD), Coterra Energy (CTRA), Chevron (CVX), Diversified Energy (DEC), EOG Resources (EOG), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Matador Resources (MTDR), Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), Pembina Pipeline (PBA), Tenaris (TS), Valaris (VAL), Valero Energy (VLO), State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), and ExxonMobil (XOM).
A quiet mailbag today... What's on your mind? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
Good investing,
Dan Ferris
Medford, Oregon
March 27, 2026
Disclosure: Stansberry Asset Management ("SAM") is a Registered Investment Adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. File number: 801-107061. Such registration does not imply any level of skill or training. Under no circumstances should this report or any information herein be construed as investment advice, or as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities or other financial instruments. For more information on SAM, please visit here.
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