Nobody's Buying It

Those bond yields keep on rising... Warsh's 'tough talk' at Jackson Hole... Bessent: 'Grow our way out of this'... Another Iran 'risk on' day... Whitney Tilson on Meta Platforms... Greg Diamond is looking to swing for the fences...

When the new guy sounds just like the old guy...

New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first Jackson Hole keynote address in Wyoming on Friday.

The short version: He said inflation is still too high at 3.7% on what has been the central bank's preferred personal-consumption-expenditures ("PCE") measure and 3.4% on the consumer price index.

And this summer's better-than-expected, but still high, readings haven't convinced him the underlying trend has "meaningfully improved." Warsh also said the Fed's 2% target isn't up for negotiation, and that adjusting the federal-funds rate is a tool he intends to use.

Here's the line that probably matters most (emphasis added)...

None of these measures are perfect, but they all tell a similar story: Inflation is running above our 2 percent target. So the Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices.

That sounds an awful lot like the "old guy," previous Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who, by the way, is still on the Fed's voting board.

Warsh went into granular detail about what he thinks about inflation later in the speech...

To try to gauge underlying inflation, I find it instructive to disaggregate the 199 individual components of the PCE price measure. Over the past 12 months, 54 percent of goods and services in the PCE basket showed price increases above 3 percent. This is well below the post-pandemic highs of about 77 percent, but it remains well above the level of 32 percent in the two decades that preceded the pandemic.

Looking over just the past six months, the conclusion is similar: Of goods and services in the PCE basket, 49 percent showed annualized price increases above 3 percent. Again, this is well below the post-pandemic highs but still quite elevated.

The recent rise in overall commodity prices also bears watching. What we need to judge is whether trends indicate upside inflation risks.

As our Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond wrote on Friday, Warsh is "talking tough on inflation."

The new Fed chair also made sure he pinned some blame on the Powell-led Fed before turning to the future...

There is one signal nobody can miss: The responsibility for 65 months of sustained, elevated inflation sits squarely with the central bank. And that is where it belongs.

Here is my standard: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do. That's our job… our mandate… and our charge to keep.

If you're into subliminal messaging, Warsh used the word "hike" or "hikes" three times in the first few moments of his speech, though he was talking about the hiking trails around Jackson Hole, not interest rates.

Still, the market got the message.

Bond yields rose on Friday, then broke higher again today. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.76%, and the 30-year yield reached 5.26%. Meanwhile, the more Fed-sensitive two-year yield is around 4.35%, up from 4.23% just before Warsh's speech.

Fed-funds futures traders are now putting a 66% chance on a rate hike at the Fed's September meeting. Before Warsh spoke, those odds sat at around 35%.

Meanwhile, in Asheville...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Warsh were both in Asheville, North Carolina today for the start of a two-day G20 gathering of finance ministers and central bankers, where the U.S. pitch was all about growth.

"The world is awash in debt," Bessent told reporters before the meeting began, "and the only way for us to get out of this is to grow our way out of this." Warsh, in his own introductory remarks, touted, "If I were to try to characterize this moment, it would be one of a global investment surge."

We've heard the "grow our way out" line from Bessent before, back when the national debt was "only" $35 trillion. It's north of $40 trillion now. Nobody's buying it.

Then there's Iran...

The U.S.-Iran conflict flared up again over the weekend. U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island – the first American strikes since July – and Iran answered with attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan and, Iran said, an air base in the United Arab Emirates.

Then, President Donald Trump posted an AI-generated video on Truth Social, which appeared to show Kharg Island, Iran's main oil-export terminal, being destroyed.

Global news service Reuters reported that detection software confirmed the clip is synthetic, and hours later, there was still no evidence that Kharg had been hit, though many people on social media believed it happened.

Before the war began in late February, Kharg handled roughly 90% of Iran's oil exports. So Kharg isn't a random choice.

As we reported last week, the U.S. is also threatening economic sanctions that could suffocate the Iranian economy in an effort to move its current regime into some kind of action.

In Asheville, Bessent said Iran's economy could buckle within "weeks or months" under the blockade and sanctions campaign, but he added that a collapse isn't the point. "We just have to have the regime come to their senses," he said.

In response, markets today did what they've done over and over again this year. Oil futures jumped around 3%. The energy sector of the S&P 500 Index was up 2%, while most of the rest of the market fell. It was another Iran war "risk on" day.

A follow-up on Meta's settlement...

Last week, we covered social media giant Meta Platforms' (META) $18 billion settlement with dozens of state attorneys general over claims that its platforms harmed young users. The company also agreed to teen time limits, overnight blocks, and muted notifications as part of the deal.

On Friday, Stansberry's Investment Advisory lead editor Whitney Tilson weighed in on the settlement in his free daily letter and what it might mean for shareholders.

Whitney called the settlement a smart move and revisited his argument that fears about Meta's capital spending are overdone.

Finally, Whitney explained why Meta still ranks among his favorite large-cap technology names...

Since the end of July, the stock is up 6% to close yesterday [last Thursday] at $571.10. And consensus analysts' estimates for next year have come down to $33.92.

So its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple is now 16.8 times. That's still very attractive for one of the world's greatest businesses and a company that grew revenues last quarter by a remarkable 28%.

You can read more of Whitney's analysis on Meta here.

Moving on, Greg is getting ready to swing for the fences...

Greg doesn't write about bitcoin often. He'll tell you that he considers the cryptocurrency a trading instrument, like any other asset he tracks.

But in his Weekly Market Outlook this morning, Greg said he can't ignore what he's looking at right now.

With the Treasury openly discussing how to suppress long-term interest rates, and the market pricing in more debt, spending, and a weaker dollar, money is moving toward scarcer assets. That's the fundamental backdrop.

But it's the technical setup on bitcoin's long-term chart that really has Greg's attention, as the crypto is trading around $79,000. He calls it a potential "home run" trade, and it's the first time he has considered trading the crypto since closing a position in January 2025.

We can't share the details in these pages. But Ten Stock Trader subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can read Greg's full analysis here.

Last call for Stansberry Conference & Alliance Meeting in-person tickets...

Last but not least today, our annual conference in Las Vegas is rapidly approaching. So rapidly, in fact, that just last night I was talking through logistics with my wife – who will be handling parenting duties solo at home – while I'm out in Vegas for the event.

If you don't have your in-person ticket yet – get it today before registration ends very soon.

You can expect three high-impact days of bold ideas, real conversations, and actionable investing information... plus engaging, fun social events.

Across the stage, our top editors and analysts – like Dr. David ("Doc") Eifrig, Dan Ferris, Dave Lashmet, Brett Eversole, Josh Baylin, Eric Wade, and more – will reveal their highest-conviction ideas, timely recommendations, and views on today's fast-moving markets...

You'll also hear from an elite lineup of guest speakers tackling the biggest forces shaping your wealth right now – from global markets and emerging technologies to alternative investments and future trends.

This year's top-notch roster includes tech expert Dan Ives, famed actor and producer Henry Winkler (aka "The Fonz"), health expert Dr. David Agus, CEOs, bestselling authors, PhDs, AI experts, entrepreneurs, and more...

Click here to see the full speaker lineup and reserve your seat today.

Our conferences are known for blending business with experience – and delivering insights that matter. Past attendees have walked away with ideas and stock picks that could have led to extraordinary gains...

There's nothing like being in the room in real time... It's an experience you just can't get from behind a screen. And we've got a bunch of "extras" lined up in the evenings too, like a visit from an advanced, AI-powered, humanoid robot.

Secure your in-person event ticket right here before registration closes soon.

New 52-week highs (as of 8/28/26): Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 Fund (COWZ), Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield Fund (EYLD), Korn Ferry (KFY), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), and Valero Energy (VLO).

In today's mailbag, more feedback on Meta Platforms' settlement in a recent social media addiction case that we wrote about last week... and some great stories in response to Dan Ferris' latest Friday missive... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"I agree with your reader. Millions of families seem to be able to control screen time and social media, tough as it might be. But that's Parenting, right? How about showing us the breakdown of where the billions are going? I've tried, but no luck. My guess is that the lawyers want that info 'private'. Thanks." – Subscriber J.M.

"Dan, I know you're a 'Value' investor, but why in the world would you stay at a
Motel 6?" – Subscriber Eric H.

"The last time I spent the night in a Motel 6 was when I was a 23-year-old, fresh out of college, broke moron in Montgomery, AL. I decided to use my Business Admin degree in Destin, Florida as an oyster shucker and barback, as I wanted to get into the restaurant biz and didn't know a damn thing about it, other than, like most 'wannabe's,' eating in one. So, I did, and I learned more than any college course taught me, and moved on to other, better paying positions in the business, eventually owning my own waterfront place on the west end of Panama City Beach, FL for 10 years before selling it to land developers for a very nice profit at 43 years old.

"I became a Stansberry subscriber around 2014, and it was the second-best financial decision I ever made, (behind becoming an oyster shucker), as your Extreme Value, Ferris Report, Doc's Income Intelligence, and Steve Sjug's True Wealth have guided me and my family to a very comfortable retirement. Your 'Raining Nails in Texas' article from August 28 I think is another of your Friday writeups that hits the proverbial nail on the head. I'm with you." – Subscriber J.D.

"I love that you mentioned Davy Crockett. The Sockdolager story is a favorite of mine since it illustrates very simply and clearly the importance of foundational principles and how any compromise of those principles inevitably weakens the very foundation of liberty. Very interesting Digest." – Subscriber Roy T.

"Your best yet. I was a GOP delegate for Ron Paul both times he ran for prez as a Republican. I often think he was this country's last chance. And BTW, in case you didn't know, Motel 6 was called Motel 6 because originally the rooms were $6 a night. Really. I was there, and the slogan was We'll leave the light on for you, not We'll leave the nail guns blazing." – Subscriber Warren W.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
August 31, 2026

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