What to watch next in the Middle East... The U.S. attacks Iran... Oil prices are up... The next 30 days are important... What to own when the bombs fall...
You knew it was coming...
Just two weeks ago, I (Corey McLaughlin) wrote about the latest round of negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials in Geneva around nuclear weapons. As we said in our February 19 edition...
Just a day after the talks wrapped up with the promises of more discussion, an unnamed White House official signaled that we could soon see more U.S. military presence in the Middle East.
Earlier today, President Donald Trump said he'll decide whether to make a deal or "take it a step further" (i.e., attack Iran) sometime over the next 10 days.
Now, this could be another way for the U.S. to apply negotiating pressure on Iran, or it could be a signal of the U.S. going to war with Iran, or both.
Turns out, it was "both."
Today, in opening remarks at a White House event, Trump addressed "Operation Epic Fury" and said the U.S. just couldn't come to terms with the Iranians. He accused the country of rebuilding its nuclear program after prior U.S. attacks in the summer, and said it was now working on building more longer-range missiles that could threaten the U.S. The president said today...
We thought we had a deal, but then they backed out. Then they came back and we thought we had a deal, and they backed out. I said, "You can't deal with these people. You've got to do it the right way."
It also turns out a U.S. attack on Iran began not 10 but nine days after Trump floated that timeline. Still, raise your hand if you woke up Saturday morning expecting to learn that bombs were dropping in Iran...
While most folks were surprised, some were certainly betting on it... Hundreds of millions of dollars were laid on Polymarket in the hours before the attack, regarding its timing and whether it would successfully kill Iran's now-former supreme leader.
The oil and energy market is the big story today...
Iran has largely controlled the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints.
Roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day – about 20% of the world's supply – pass through this exit from the Persian Gulf. (We've written more on the Strait of Hormuz here.) Oil and gas from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran itself must pass through this strait en route to China, India, and other markets.
In trading today, prices of West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") and Brent crude – the U.S. and international benchmarks – traded up 7% and 8% to nearly $72 and $79 per barrel, respectively. War in the Middle East of any kind tends to spike oil prices, at least in the short term.
Last month, we also told you that oil prices had quickly risen about 6% after Trump's comments about a possible attack on Iran. We speculated that conflict in Iran could be another catalyst for rising prices.
But while oil prices are higher, they haven't quite taken off (yet)...
As our colleague Chris Igou recently noted in DailyWealth Trader, WTI has been "range-bound" for about three years, with neither bulls nor bears getting an upper hand. A $70 price currently marks the "top end" of a technical channel.
That's more or less where WTI traded today. I don't think it's coincidence.
It is also an important level to watch over the next few days and weeks. As Chris wrote a few weeks ago, if WTI broke above $70 and stayed there, that would be a signal prices could head much higher.
So far, though, the market was a lot more shocked by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, when prices of the U.S. standard and Brent both spiked 80% in three months to more than $125 per barrel.
Today, oil prices are up "only" about 20% since Trump ramped up the rhetoric on Iran several weeks ago... Oil costs the same now as it did after the U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities last summer. In other words, it's not at a major new high, but it's still trending higher. Oil is up 30% since the middle of December 2025.
That could be because it's possible to see a path ahead this time, even if we don't quite know the final destination yet.
Here's what I mean by that: We don't know which people will be leading the Iranian government going forward, but it sure looks like the regime of the past four-plus decades is being methodically killed and dismantled as we speak.
While Iran's Revolutionary Guard has reportedly been broadcasting to ships to not enter the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. (and Israeli) strikes have likely degraded the ability for whoever is left in power in Iran to "close" the waterway.
Plus, given Iran's retaliation against targets in Saudi Arabia, it's easy for the powerful kingdom to publicly pick a side... OPEC+ nations appear to be rallying around the cause... with eight of them announcing they'll boost production by more than expected next month.
So commercial planes are avoiding the Middle Eastern skies today, and I doubt anyone wants to pilot or insure an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz right now... But if all goes according to plan, air and sea travel could normalize in a few weeks.
That may sound like a best-case scenario, but it also just may happen...
Today, Trump said that while the entire military operation could take four to five weeks, it's already ahead of schedule. He said the U.S. will "easily prevail," while also mourning the deaths of U.S. servicemembers killed in Iran's response over the weekend.
Still, ships aren't entering the Strait of Hormuz just yet. As oil and gas investor Josh Young, a recent Stansberry Investor Hour guest, posted on the social platform X this morning...
If energy and oil prices generally keep moving higher from here, we'll be writing a different story and considering the effects of a bigger oil spike.
But so far, at least in the U.S., the market's reaction has been notable but not panicked...
Had you not read the news and just looked at the headline numbers and indexes, rising energy prices would have been the only clue that anything was going on...
While the major U.S. stock indexes opened today lower, they were in the green by early afternoon and finished mixed. Energy stocks led the way, up 2% as a sector. But industrials and tech were up, too – not exactly a sign of much concern.
The CBOE Volatility Index ("VIX") moved up to 21. That's slightly higher than average, but not outrageous.
However, foreign stocks fell. And European natural gas prices spiked 50% after Qatar shut down its liquefied natural gas ("LNG") export facility, effectively cutting off 20% of global supply...
So I'm not saying that developments in the Middle East won't stoke volatility in particular stocks and sectors...
As I mentioned, energy stocks were among the biggest risers today. Concerns about supply-chain disruptions and expectations for higher prices actually help their cause. Shares of some defense contractors jumped, too.
On the other hand, airline and cruise companies saw their shares fall, since war disrupts travel and increases their fuel costs... We often see knee-jerk reactions like this. They could be short-lived, but they bear watching.
So does what happens next...
If all doesn't go according to plan...
By taking out Iran's leaders and military, the U.S. has changed the global economy. We just don't know how yet.
Two key points are that China was the primary buyer of Iranian oil and that Russia was a top Iranian ally.
Perhaps things escalate with China and Russia to levels that truly few are expecting. That would rattle the markets in a big way.
Maybe the Internet doesn't come back online in Iran for more than a month... the Iranian people don't rise up and choose a new leader like the White House hopes... and parts of the battered Iranian regime hold on to power.
On the oil front, eight OPEC+ countries will increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, which might be enough to temper prices if the conflict escalates... But if the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea become impassable or too dangerous for oil tankers to sail for an extended period, that supply will be stranded in the Middle East.
In that scenario, oil could easily rise to $90 or $100 per barrel, boosting inflation among other issues.
In the really long term, fresh leadership in Iran could remove a giant geopolitical risk that has dogged the global economy for decades.
Here's the takeaway for now...
You can't go back and bet on higher oil prices 10 days ago or predict the future with complete certainty. But you can prepare for what's ahead now and what might happen.
The conflict with Iran may escalate or otherwise not go to plan. In that case, your portfolio should include at least some of the stocks and assets that held up best today.
That's energy stocks, and the sector as a whole is already up 30% since a low in mid-December.
That's our dependable "chaos hedge" of gold, up almost another 1.5% today and closing on a new record again... plus gold stocks...
And it's other hard assets... like rare earth minerals that are at the heart of so much of the world's ubiquitous technologies today.
Beat global wars by owning the stuff that "everyone" will still need and want no matter what happens.
If you're looking for a few new ideas, we have just the thing for you...
While precious metals are soaring, legendary natural resources investor Rick Rule recently sat down with special guest Nick Hodge to discuss the opportunities in rare earth minerals.
You may have seen that the U.S. government has also become interested in stockpiling these resources in the name of national security. Rick – one of the greatest resource investors of all time – is telling folks exactly what to buy before the White House's next move.
More than two dozen of these stocks have already doubled because of this story, and nine have jumped more than 400%. Learn more and get the full story here, including a free stock giveaway from Rick and Nick.
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In today's mailbag, feedback on Dan Ferris' Friday Digest on the idea of the stock market going to zero... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Oil went to zero. So similar events have happened." – Subscriber Peter W.
"Dan, Don't worry. If push comes to shove, I'll trade you five rounds of .22LR for a can of tuna; six if the can hasn't gone past its best by date..." – Subscriber R.F.G.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
March 2, 2026
