War headlines drive oil prices higher, until they don't... Energy stocks have been 'overbought' for too long... A dangerous level... Don't miss Greg Diamond's 2026 Market Crash Summit tomorrow...
Don't worry about it...
That has essentially been the White House's message to the American people over the past 24 hours or so.
Oil prices continued to rise amid concerns and questions about the war in Iran. They're now up about 40% since before the U.S. attacked last weekend, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright went on Fox News yesterday morning and said...
The run-up in prices has nothing to do with any shortage of barrels of oil or natural gas. It's just fear and perception [and] the unknown, that this could be some long, drawn-out crisis. But it won't be...
In fairness, he could be right, if all goes according to plan.
As we said in our first issue after the attacks began last week, the plan includes Iran's next longer-term leader not being like the last one, and oil and gas eventually flowing from the Middle East at the same rate it did 10 days ago.
Even if things don't go according to plan, the "stay calm" attitude may be the best approach anyway.
As Whitney Tilson wrote in his free daily newsletter today, he doesn't recommend that folks worried about rising oil and gas prices sell all their stocks. As he said, "99% of the time, long-term investors should ignore the headlines and stay the course."
"But is today one of those 1% times?" Whitney wrote. "I don't think so..." You can read his full take here.
In the meantime, Mr. Market is doing what he does...
Over the weekend, a group of Iranian clerics decided that 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei will replace his recently killed father as Iran's Supreme Leader, which doesn't exactly suggest that Iran's stance on important issues, or the "death to America" chants, will change.
So Wright's words did little to soothe market fears, nor did a social media post by President Donald Trump yesterday evening, where he said that higher short-term oil prices are a "very small price to pay" for world peace and "will drop rapidly" when Iran's nuclear capabilities are fully destroyed.
Last night, oil futures spiked, with West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") hitting near $120 per barrel as traders further considered the impact of a choked-off energy supply. About 30% of seaborne-traded oil and 20% of global liquefied natural gas typically move via tankers through the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.
And, as a result, U.S. stocks were lower for most of the day.
That is, until a late-afternoon report from CBS News quoted Trump saying that the war is "very complete, pretty much," suggesting it could soon be over... and that he has also been "thinking" of taking over the Strait of Hormuz, but that ships are now passing through.
The major U.S. stock indexes all finished higher, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index up more than 1%. The CBOE Volatility Index – considered by some as the market's "fear gauge" – eased off its highs of the day but remained elevated around 25.
As we go to press this evening, WTI is down about 6% for the day at around $86 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, is roughly 3% lower at $89.
Perhaps this is another of the many knee-jerk reactions we often see in the market, but this late-day behavior is also not the only sign we see that war fears may have peaked, at least in the short term.
Some other very early potential 'less bad' signs are emerging...
Earlier today, reports that Group of Seven (G7) officials met to discuss tapping emergency oil reserves did soothe the price spike, and those energy ministers will reportedly meet again tomorrow to talk about it.
An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson also warned that oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz "must be very careful," which, on first listen, sounds better than the Iranian military commander threatening to light all ships in the waterway on fire last week.
But the foreign ministry spokesperson also said Iran will fight against the U.S. and Israel "as long as it takes."
Overall, I (Corey McLaughlin) am reminded of a concept that True Wealth founding editor Dr. Steve Sjuggerud and his protégé Brett Eversole believe in... that "less bad" news about a particular situation, following times of heightened fear about it, can often mark an important turning point higher for stocks.
The pandemic... tariffs... the banking crisis... You get the idea...
If the worst is over, this also makes sense...
While we can't predict precisely where oil prices will head next, we do want to point out that energy stocks could be in for a drawdown.
Now, Dan Ferris just wrote on Friday about his bullish case for energy stocks and why AI will be a boon for them in the long term. We're not disputing that. But today, we're talking about the short-term outlook for energy stocks, which could provide an opportunity for investors in what could be the trade of "the decade."
As DailyWealth Trader editor Chris Igou wrote to subscribers on Friday, the relative strength index ("RSI") momentum indicator for the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has shown extremely overbought levels for weeks...
The RSI measures when an asset has moved too far, too fast in either direction.
A reading above 70 indicates an asset is "overbought," which typically leads to quick pullbacks. And a reading below 30 marks "oversold" territory, usually right before an asset starts to rally.
The RSI for the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) isn't just above 70 today... It has been well above 70 for the better part of a month. We haven't seen anything like this since early 2024. That was right before energy stocks fell for almost a year...
Notice how the 2024 case looked very similar to today. XLE was shooting higher without any pullback in the short term. Then, once it overheated, the fund fell 19% over a year.
Now, it's easy to point out that a large part of the drop came during the tariff crash in April 2025. But XLE was struggling long before that.
In fact, it was down 13% from April 2024 to its December low that year.
Based on this indicator – and another trend indicator – Chris says it looks like the rally in energy stocks has "become unsustainable," and a double-digit drawdown is "very possible."
DailyWealth Trader subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can read his full analysis here.
Get ready for more volatility...
As we said earlier, we can't predict where oil prices will head next. They could keep moving higher... and the broader stock market could keep moving lower as investors account for energy cost risk, should headlines paint a different picture tomorrow.
As our Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond wrote in a trade update to his subscribers this morning...
The war in Iran isn't ending anytime soon. Oil spiked much higher last night, to nearly $120. But it has retraced back to the $100 level since then. We also have short-term oversold levels across the board.
Does this mean stocks can't continue lower?
No.
And, despite what Trump said late today, a few weeks of unpredictable warfare is still a reasonable possibility.
Today, the U.S. updated an advisory telling non-emergency government staff to leave Saudi Arabia, the region's largest oil producer, due to the risk of terrorist attacks. The Saudis say Iranian attacks, mostly via kamikaze drones, have continued.
So be ready for a volatile few weeks in the market... and possibly longer.
However, as terrifying as war is, market volatility creates plenty of trading opportunities – especially when oil prices are involved.
In another trading update this morning, Greg recommended subscribers close a bearish trade for a 50%-plus gain in about six weeks. That's Greg's eighth winner of the year.
And Greg says the war in Iran is just the beginning... there's plenty more volatility – and opportunities to profit – ahead.
That's why, at 10 a.m. Eastern time tomorrow (Tuesday), Greg is holding his 2026 Market Crash Summit.
He'll explain how you can prepare for and profit from continued market volatility. He's even going to share one of his favorite trading setups right now for free.
Click here to sign up for Greg's Market Crash Summit.
New 52-week highs (as of 3/6/26): Antero Midstream (AM), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), BP (BP), CF Industries (CF), Chord Energy (CHRD), Chevron (CVX), Duke Energy (DUK), EOG Resources (EOG), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), Equinor (EQNR), EQT (EQT), Freehold Royalties (FRHLF), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Matador Resources (MTDR), Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), and USCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund (SDCI).
In today's mailbag, thoughts on Thursday's Digest from Nick Koziol about not all job losses being from AI... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Job losses are not just about layoffs... Future human jobs not materializing because of AI usage are also 'job losses.'" – Subscriber Kevin S.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
March 9, 2026
