From TikTok to takeovers... The end of America's deal drought... The sectors that benefit... Hundreds of U.S. stocks have doubled in the past six months... The greatest 'moneymaking anomaly' today... The Fed is about to meet...
Geneva, London, Stockholm, and Madrid...
This bucket list of global travel destinations is also the 2025 itinerary – so far – for U.S. and Chinese officials talking through trade negotiations. Round 4 of talks has been unfolding over the past several days in the Spanish capital...
While tariffs remain an open question, one announcement has emerged. It sounds like TikTok, the addictive video platform, will have a new and assuredly U.S.-based owner.
"We have a framework for a TikTok deal," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters in Spain, and it's "between two private parties." The next step is for President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to talk to finalize an agreement, Bessent said, which is set to happen on Friday.
From there, U.S. and Chinese administration underlings will have "trade negotiations in about a month, again, at a different location," Bessent said. "We talked about many things that we might do in the future."
Where to next for the Great Trade Negotiators? We're not sure, though Paris, Amsterdam, or Frankfurt come to mind...
But I (Corey McLaughlin) am willing to bet that the meat of the next U.S.-China meetings will be extending tariff "pauses" currently in place... while the outcome of the Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump's "reciprocal" tariff policy remains to be heard in early November.
On a related note, in the U.S...
We read with interest this recent report from Joel Litman, founder and chief investment officer of our corporate affiliate Altimetry, who wrote about the "end of U.S. deal droughts."
Joel is one of the more connected folks on Wall Street we know.
All 10 of the world's largest investment firms buy his world-renowned forensic accounting research. And he tends to spot developing trends long before the ideas hit most investors' ears...
You see, a lot of market participants expected mergers and acquisitions (M&A) to pick up substantially during another Trump administration in control of the White House.
Well, that didn't happen at all in the first several months of Trump's second term, but now things are picking up, as Joel explained in a recent issue of his free Altimetry Daily Authority e-letter.
I think you'll find this perspective valuable. It bucks a lot of the conversation we've been hearing in the mainstream financial media lately about the state of the economy, the Federal Reserve, and more. So we're resharing Joel's research in full here...
M&A hit a wall back in December...
January was also sluggish. February was even worse. By April, total deal volume had dropped more than 40%... That's one of the sharpest year-over-year declines in a decade.
Many blame murky economic policies...
Trump spent the first few months in office drawing up tariffs. That culminated in the April 2 "Liberation Day" announcement and marked the most sweeping tariff hikes since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.
Many of those tariffs are pending, but they still cratered M&A activity. That's why the first quarter of 2025 looked like a deal desert. And then, in May, everything changed.
Today, M&A deals are bouncing back... and they might create investment opportunities in some specific market sectors more than others.
Three developments are shifting the mood in company boardrooms...
First, Trump signed Executive Order 14192, titled "Unleashing Prosperity Through Deregulation," in April. It directed federal agencies to streamline M&A approvals across the health care, energy, and industrials sectors.
Second, the U.S. government is overhauling the Federal Acquisition Regulation rules, which dictate how agencies do business with private companies. It's simplifying dense language, removing non-statutory rules, and providing buying guides.
These developments are sending a clear message to corporate America... The Trump administration wants to revive business deals.
On top of that, tariffs have become more of a bargaining tool than a genuine threat. While some have been implemented (like the 20% tariff on Taiwan), others have vanished due to successful trade negotiations.
All in all, Trump's tariffs have only raised U.S. prices by a small margin. So with tariffs off the table and a move toward deregulation, cash-rich businesses sprang into action...
U.S. deal volume jumped 35% from April to June. And large, strategic acquisitions fueled that uptick... Charter Communications (CHTR) and Cox Communications, for example, announced a $35 billion merger. And software giant Salesforce (CRM) reported that it was buying AI cloud business Informatica (INFA) for $8 billion.
Bank mergers are also back on the table... Regional and midtier banks, in particular, are racing to grow. With that M&A pipeline clogged for years, there's a backlog of buyers and sellers waiting for the green light.
This means management teams are becoming more confident...
We can see this through the Management Growth Confidence Index, which is based on our Earnings Call Forensics ("ECF") work.
This proprietary auditory analysis tool uses changes of cadence, pitch, and other vocal qualities during earnings calls to identify management's sentiment.
We can sense management teams' confidence levels by looking at the ratio of "excitement" and "confidence" markers to "questionable" markers.
When the Management Growth Confidence Index rises, management teams are generally more bullish on their short-term and medium-term outlooks. Take a look at the blue trend line below...
The three-month weighted moving average (in red) has also been trending up. It's approaching early 2023 levels (roughly 15%) after hovering near decade lows for the past 18 months.
Simply put, management teams now understand the scope of Trump's policies. And they're more confident that tariffs won't hamper their goals.
M&A lawyers and C-suite teams are finally cutting through the red tape...
The recent deal surge shows that executives are confident about the U.S. economy and their ability to generate long-term returns.
That's good news for the broad market and a few key sectors...
Banking, professional services, and private equity all tend to thrive in strong M&A environments... due to the new capital and customers that come into play.
Companies focused on growth also do well... The Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger I discussed recently is a prime example.
After months of ambiguous government policies, it's clear that U.S. business leaders are ready to make big moves.
Doubles everywhere...
Corey here again... As I mentioned earlier, Joel has clients all over Wall Street. He has also consulted with the Pentagon and taught at big business schools... And readers who've attended our annual Stansberry Research conference know he's a fan favorite.
In short, when he talks, we listen...
And in just two days, Joel is going public with what he calls "the greatest moneymaking anomaly in the market today." A new study he's put together shows it's directly linked to the hundreds of stocks that have already doubled this year. That's right, more than 300 stocks have doubled in the past six months alone...
Joel will be going live on Wednesday to explain everything. And until then, you can test his breakthrough "Doubles Scanner" system for free. Click here for more details and get access now.
What else to watch this week...
Eyes will be back on the Fed over the next couple of days. The market is convinced the central bank will lower its federal-funds rate range by 25 basis points, and any other decision would be taken as a surprise...
The more likely market-moving information from this Fed meeting will be what the central bankers suggest about policy moving ahead. Basically, will they keep cutting rates until further notice, or are they still cautious about inflation?
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference on Wednesday will provide some answers on that point. So will the Fed's quarterly Summary of Economic Projections ("SEP"), the exercise in which the central bank projects out GDP, inflation, and labor data for the quarters and years ahead.
These estimates are almost always proved wrong, yet Wall Street likes to make bets based on them. They tend to create more volatility than the Fed decisions themselves, since anything but a rate-cut surprise is already "priced in" ahead of time.
An outcome to consider...
I could see a "dovish" tone from Powell – meaning tilted toward "easier" monetary policy, as he suggested a month ago during remarks in Jackson Hole, Wyoming – providing a lift for the markets afterward.
Weak SEP projections should mute investors' enthusiasm... But if they think the economy or the jobs market is in trouble, they'll expect more rate cuts. They'll see that as a good thing, at least in the short term.
As we wrote last week...
In both of the SEP releases so far in 2025, the Fed has raised its estimate for the unemployment rate for this year. And in June, the Fed raised its expectation for unemployment in both 2026 and 2027.
The story is the same for inflation. As of the June SEP release, the Fed sees core personal consumption expenditures ("PCE") at 3.1% for 2025, up from its estimate of 2.5% last December. That's a big jump in just six months.
If we see the same thing from the September projections, it's a sign that the economy is getting worse.
That will only bring even lower interest rates, which will likely drive higher inflation – devaluing the dollar even more and providing jet fuel for assets like gold, silver, and shares of quality businesses.
Remember, in the longer run, rate cuts are not a panacea. They're a response to a weakening economy, or at least the Fed's belief in one. And a cheaper cost of dollars inevitably fuels more inflation. But Mr. Market is ginned up about the prospect right now.
Today, it was another day of new records for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes. Gold was again a winner too, up another 1% to a fresh all-time high around $3,700... And silver continues to trade at a 14-year high and is only about $7 from its all-time high.
Did 1 Million Jobs Really Just Vanish?
Nearly 1 million jobs disappeared overnight – or did they? In this week's episode of This Week on Wall Street, our Director of Research Matt Weinschenk breaks down the government's shocking labor-market revision... and what it really means for the economy and your portfolio...
Watch the video on our YouTube page, and be sure to like and subscribe to get more of our free video content.
New 52-week highs (as of 9/12/25): ABB (ABBNY), First Majestic Silver (AG), Altius Minerals (ALS.TO), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Fund (EMXC), VanEck Junior Gold Miners Fund (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), Alphabet (GOOGL), Nuveen Preferred & Income Opportunities Fund (JPC), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Kinross Gold (KGC), Grand Canyon Education (LOPE), Mueller Industries (MLI), OR Royalties (OR), Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV), Royal Gold (RGLD), Construction Partners (ROAD), Sandstorm Gold (SAND), iShares Silver Trust (SLV), TKO Group (TKO), ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL), United States Commodity Index Fund (USCI), and ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (USD).
In today's mailbag, feedback on Dan Ferris' Friday essay... and on Joel Litman's Saturday Masters Series essay about the Fed's likely next move... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"I found [Friday's] column to be extremely enlightening and entertaining, as usual. I'm going to rush out and buy me some EightBall, err, Eightco. Not." – Subscriber Sherwin R.
"I really need help understanding the economic pundits, and even the president, who all seem to think lower rates are going to help when it's confidence that really matters.
"I suppose one could argue that lower rates would reduce the interest expense, and a lower dollar will ease the currency expense for all the foreign entities that relied on selling dollar-based debt, but what does that mean for businesses that won't expand if they lack confidence, which is the fact. All we will get is more inflation..." – Subscriber Scot S.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin with Joel Litman and Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
September 15, 2025
