A disappointing January...

Why I didn't buy anything at the biggest collectible gun show of the year...

Despite having a pocket full of cash, our go-to source for rare-coin and collectibles advice didn't buy a single gun at a recent show.

In today's Digest Premium, he explains why...

To subscribe to Digest Premium and receive a free hardback copy of Jim Rogers' latest book, click here.

A disappointing January... Stocks down... Gold and Treasurys up... Sjug: The bull market is still on... More good news for muni bonds and Spain... Episode No. 2 of The James Altucher Show is now available...

 

 January was a disappointing start to the year for equities...

The S&P 500 sold off nearly 3.5% in January. The Dow Jones dropped more than 5%, its worst single-month performance since May 2012.

 And as we've come to expect, while the market slid, the Volatility Index (or "VIX") – the market's fear gauge – showed signs of life...

We've long warned that the VIX was showing far too much complacency among investors. Stocks were at all-time highs. Many valuations were unwarranted. And quantitative easing – not fundamentals – was driving the market higher. As the market rose, investors were happy to ride along.

In January, while investors were spooked by the rout in emerging markets, the VIX rose 29% to nearly 19.

 The Dow was down nearly 2% today. The S&P 500 was down more than 2.2%. And the VIX was up as much as 11%.

The Institute for Supply Management trade association released disappointing data on the manufacturing sector today. The group's monthly manufacturing index of factory activity fell to 51.3 in January from 56.5 in December. Economists had forecasted the index to be around 56 for January. Still... anything above 50 reflects expansion.

But don't say we didn't warn you. In the December 13 Digest, Porter wrote...

Thus... it is with a considerable amount of personal and business risk that I announce... I'm now firmly bearish.

In early June, I warned that stocks would suffer when the Federal Reserve stopped printing money. But my timing was off, because the Fed reconsidered and has continued to print.

Now, with the economy heating up, it seems very likely that the printing will have to stop. March is now the consensus time frame. As a result, stocks are going to fall next year. It is time to raise cash, tighten stop losses, and wait for much more attractive valuations. My bet is that a lot of selling happens during the first week of January – as that will push capital-gains taxes into the next tax year. If I'm right about where the market is heading, January should be a terrible month for stocks.

 According to a report from international bank Deutsche Bank, gold was the best-performing asset last month – up 3.2%. (The metal is up more than 1.5% today to around $1,260 an ounce.) Yields on 10-year Treasurys are down 14% this year, from 3.03% to around 2.61% today.

 January was a "risk off" month... Investors dumped stocks in favor of safer government bonds and gold.

Last week, investors pulled $12 billion from equity funds – the largest weekly outflow in more than two years.

 But is this the beginning of the inevitable massive correction we've known is due? Not according to True Wealth editor Steve Sjuggerud.

In today's DailyWealth, Steve said...

U.S. stocks are down 4% from their highs... And everyone is in a panic!

My friend, that is all you need to know... That is all we need to see to know that "The Big Bust" is not here...

There's nobody on TV calling this a buying opportunity. Instead, everyone is worried about emerging-markets "contagion." Any positive sentiment from investors this year has quickly been wiped away...

Investor sentiment is now negative...

"The sudden 'risk-off' sentiment is one of the largest about-faces on record," my friend Jason Goepfert wrote on Friday. Jason is the man behind www.SentimenTrader.com, which is my go-to site for tracking investor sentiment.

Jason showed what has happened the last six times that sentiment shifted this quickly (going back to 1998). The results were impressive... Stocks were higher six months later all six times.

 In addition to the rebound in gold, there's another bright spot in the market... Last week, $334 million flowed into municipal-bond funds. That's the first significant inflow since May, and the third straight week of net inflows.

 In the January 23 Digest, we noted the muni-bond market was turning the corner. "Munis" are one of Retirement Millionaire editor Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig's favorite sources of income investing. As we wrote...

Throughout the selloff, Doc still believed in muni bonds. He thought the drop was overblown. Certain municipal-bond funds were trading below their net asset values... and they were paying tax-equivalent yields of 10%.

And now, it looks like the market is catching on. After 34 weeks of investors pulling money out of muni-bond mutual funds, last week saw a net inflow of $103 million, according to data from research firm Lipper.

The truth is, interest rates have stopped rising (for now). Plus, municipal finances are improving... Florida, New York, Minnesota, and Wisconsin have improved enough to start considering tax cuts. And California just found itself with the biggest budget surplus in a decade.

 As you can see from the following chart of the Nuveen Municipal Opportunity Fund (NIO), which holds muni bonds, the sector is still down big from its highs. But we're starting an uptrend...

 Despite the rebound, you can still buy certain muni-bond funds for discounts to their net asset values... and collect large, tax-free income streams.

 According to the Spanish Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, growth just hit a 41-month high. Production is up for five of the past six months. Employment rose for the first time since 2010. And input costs are down for the first time in five months.

 Stansberry International editor Brett Aitken lives in Barcelona and has documented the country's recovery for the past two months. (We discussed the situation in the January 13 Digest.) Spanish stocks are up around 75% from their 2012 lows, but they're still down 35% from their 2007 highs. From the January issue of Stansberry International...

The country continues to see investor confidence return... Earlier this month, in the first auction for the year, the Spanish government raised €5.2 billion ($7 billion) in five-year bonds. That was more than expected, and Spain secured the lowest yields seen since it joined the euro with the maximum of just 2.4%. The previous low on the five-year bond was 2.6%.

Overall, investors are requiring a lot less yield to lend to the country. The yield on Spain's 10-year bond has dropped from 7.5% 18 months ago to 3.7% today – that's a 50% drop.

The country's central bank reported that foreign investment inflow for the nine months ending September 30 reached €46 billion ($62 billion). That's the balance of payments financial account, and compares with a €224 billion ($302 billion) outflow for the same period a year earlier.

Adding to the good news, Spain's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.3% for the three months ending in December – up from 0.1% in the third quarter. That's the fastest pace in almost six years. "For the first time since the start of the crisis, we are in a different scenario," Finance Minister Luis de Guindos told the Financial Times.

 Right now, the only way to receive Stansberry International is to be a lifetime subscriber to Stansberry's Investment Advisory (or join the S&A Alliance). In addition to receiving Stansberry's Investment Advisory at a discounted rate for life, lifetime subscribers also gain access to an array of supplementary services. To learn more about this offer – and gain access to Brett's favorite ways to profit off a recovery in Spain – by clicking here. (You won't have to sit through a long promotional video.)

 Episode No. 2 of our newest radio program – The James Altucher Show – is now available on iTunes.

The James Altucher Show briefly held the top spot for all podcasts on iTunes last week after its first episode. It's currently the second-highest-rated business podcast on iTunes.

In his latest episode, James spoke with social-media expert and bestselling author Gary Vaynerchuk. Vaynerchuk took his family's wine business to the Internet using social media and video to build a giant online business.

He took the lessons he learned developing the wine business to start Vayner Media – a social-media consulting firm with multiple Fortune 100 clients. And Gary has written three bestselling books on the topic.

 To listen to James' conversation with Gary – and learn how you can successfully use social media to grow your business – sign up for The James Altucher Show on iTunes, completely free of charge, by clicking here. (If you already subscribe, you can still listen to the episode through that link.)

 New 52-week highs (as of 1/31/14): Aware (AWRE), Dominion Resources (D), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), Fluidigm (FLDM), and ONEOK (OKE).

 A light mailbag today... Still recovering from Super Bowl Sunday? Send your e-mails to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

 "Reading this Digest was most interesting. Of all of the people I know you are one that I would love to sit and talk with. It amazes me how we see things so much the same. Amazon... DUH. To me that is a bust waiting to happen. All of your talk about the markets. Right on stuff... But when I look at what I own and I own stock in about 50 different companies and ETFs spread across all sorts of sectors the markets are fascinating. I can watch the money being moved from certain sectors into bonds or hard assets and then back out again.

"I am the king of the 10 share purchase... I call myself 'Risk Chicken.' But thanks to all that I have learned from you and the others all 4 of my portfolios are profitable not including dividends. Thanks to End of America 2011 I have found someone that sees the world the way I do. I am most fortunate." – Paid-up subscriber Jeff Spranger

Regards,

Sean Goldsmith 
Miami Beach, Florida 
February 3, 2014

 

Why I didn't buy anything at the biggest collectible gun show of the year...

Editor's note: Today's Digest Premium features insight from rare-coin and collectibles expert Van Simmons...

 I (Van Simmons) didn't buy a single gun at the Las Vegas show.

That's unusual for me. It's the biggest gun show of the year for collectors. I don't want to say I had sticker shock, but to a large degree, I did. I found very little there that I was willing to spend money on. I went with a lot of cash and a checkbook and I spent nothing.

 I went to buy antique knives, rifles, shotguns, or anything I thought was really impressive. There were some things that were really impressive, but everything was either more money than I was willing to spend, or not as nice as I would have wanted.

I used to work around 40 gun shows a year, so I'm a little jaded about what's nice and what isn't. I've seen as much nice stuff as you could possibly find. And I have become a little too selective... maybe too selective for my own good.

 As always, there were some guns that I really liked. But what I found at the Las Vegas show was that prices were 5%-10% too high. This is partly due to the government's money printing... The super wealthy are looking to get out of the U.S. dollar and preserve their wealth by getting into high-end, rare collectibles.

The problem is that most of the really great items have been put away in collections. And the only way they pop up now – as is the case with coins, art, and cars – is when somebody passes away.

 So while I was in Las Vegas, I didn't end up leaving with anything like the stuffed, 10-foot Bengal tiger I bought five years ago. Longtime S&A subscribers may remember how that story turned out...

– Van Simmons

Why I didn't buy anything at the biggest collectible gun show of the year...

Despite having a pocket full of cash, our go-to source for rare-coin and collectibles advice didn't buy a single gun at a recent show.

In today's Digest Premium, he explains why...

To continue reading, scroll down or click here.

 

 

Stansberry & Associates Top 10 Open Recommendations
(Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all S&A portfolios)

As of 01/31/2014

 

 

Stock Symbol Buy Date Return Publication Editor
Prestige Brands PBH 05/13/09 385.7% Extreme Value Ferris
Enterprise EPD 10/15/08 262.1% The 12% Letter Dyson
Constellation Brands STZ 06/02/11 261.0% Extreme Value Ferris
Ultra Health Care RXL 03/17/11 213.9% True Wealth Sjuggerud
Fluidigm FLDM 08/04/11 208.2% Phase 1 Curzio
Ultra Nasdaq Biotech BIB 12/05/12 199.2% True Wealth Sys Sjuggerud
Ultra Health Care RXL 01/04/12 174.2% True Wealth Sys Sjuggerud
Altria MO 11/19/08 170.5% The 12% Letter Dyson
GenMark Diagnostics GNMK 08/04/11 169.2% Phase 1 Curzio
McDonald's MCD 11/28/06 166.0% The 12% Letter Dyson

Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any S&A publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.

 

 

Top 10 Totals
2 Extreme Value Ferris
3 The 12% Letter Dyson
1 True Wealth Sjuggerud
2 Phase 1 Curzio
2 True Wealth Sys Sjuggerud

 

Stansberry & Associates Hall of Fame
(Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all S&A portfolios)

 

Investment Sym Holding Period Gain Publication Editor
Seabridge Gold SA 4 years, 73 days 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud
Rite Aid 8.5% bond   4 years, 356 days 773% True Income Williams
ATAC Resources ATC 313 days 597% Phase 1 Badiali
JDS Uniphase JDSU 1 year, 266 days 592% SIA Stansberry
Silver Wheaton SLW 1 year, 185 days 345% Resource Rpt Badiali
Jinshan Gold Mines JIN 290 days 339% Resource Rpt Badiali
Medis Tech MDTL 4 years, 110 days 333% Diligence Ferris
ID Biomedical IDBE 5 years, 38 days 331% Diligence Lashmet
Northern Dynasty NAK 1 year, 343 days 322% Resource Rpt Badiali
Texas Instr. TXN 270 days 301% SIA Stansberry
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