A Dose of Reality Is Helpful, Too
Back-to-back vaccine news Mondays... Moderna's star turn... Is this just a land grab?... A dose of reality is helpful, too... The questions that remain... Doc and Matt's latest free COVID-19 briefing...
Another Monday, another vaccine announcement...
It's almost like someone, or a group of people, are scheduling these Happy Monday press releases on purpose to keep everyone thinking positive thoughts...
This time last week, we wrote about positive COVID-19 vaccine trial data from drugmaker Pfizer (PFE)... Today, vaccine developer Moderna (MRNA) took its turn in the sun.
The Boston-based biotech company said its vaccine candidate – an mRNA vaccine just like Pfizer's – was 94.5% effective in a recent Phase III trial, beating Pfizer's "better than 90%" number.
In the 30,000-person trial, 15,000 participants were given a two-dose saline placebo. Among them, 90 developed COVID-19 over the course of the next several months – and 11 of those patients' cases turned severe.
Among the other 15,000 people in the trial who received the vaccine, according to Moderna, only five got COVID-19 – and none were severely ill. As Stansberry NewsWire analyst Nick Koziol wrote this morning about the trial of Moderna's two-dose vaccine...
These data were collected in 95 COVID-19 positive cases in trial patients within two weeks of them receiving the second dose. MRNA said that, of these 95, 90 of them had received the placebo and only five had received the shot.
If you ask us, though, the fine print – and what wasn't reported yet, as we'll explain in today's Digest – leaves some doubt about this being an undeniable cure for the pandemic.
Yet the media is acting as if tens of millions of folks should line up tomorrow to take it. The folks putting this news out don't seem to realize that few people trust anybody anymore...
Like we wrote back in August, this whole race – no, sprint – to developing a vaccine is as troubling as it is hopeful...
Those involved have been telegraphing every move, for better or worse. As we wrote in the August 31 Digest...
The government has fronted billions of dollars for vaccine development that usually takes at least five years... And it's aiming to have one available before the end of this year (or before the November election, which looks less and less likely each day).
The notable "leaders" include a pair of cutting-edge messenger RNA (mRNA)-based vaccine approaches from biotech company Moderna (MRNA) and a joint effort from pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (PFE) and German biotech company BioNTech (BNTX).
An mRNA vaccine has never been approved for use with infectious disease. But from the sounds of the news, you might think getting this formulation in the arms of millions of Americans with limited side effects is a foregone conclusion.
It's not.
Our colleague Dr. David 'Doc' Eifrig has called this whole thing a 'land grab'...
With billions of dollars involved – in government preorders and "at cost" coverage – that claim makes sense.
In his most recent COVID-19 briefing video with senior analyst Matt Weinschenk, published last week, Doc brought up the inherent concerns of whether these vaccine-makers are more motivated by money than anything else...
Doc pointed out his concern about Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla setting up the automated selling in August of his shares in his company through the legal "Rule 10b5-1," which was established by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in 2000. Company "insiders" often use this as a way to avoid accusations of insider trading.
It might've been just a coincidence, but Bourla's most recent automated selling date was last Monday, when Pfizer released its promising data. He sold $5.6 million worth of shares. During their briefing, Doc and Matt had an interesting exchange on the point...
Doc: I thought it was interesting that you would [set that up] a couple months before you might have had major vaccines going on. I don't know on that.
Matt: Look, if the guy's company has successfully made a vaccine and he sold some stock and made some money, I'm OK with that no matter what he knew, right? That's not the worst thing. Isn't that what they're supposed to do?
Doc: That's an interesting question. You're the owner of a business, and someone comes and offers to give you money for it, like an IPO or something. How much, if you're the original founder, do you sell? If you think your company still has incredible upside, I don't think you sell anything. That's another discussion...
I don't make much of it. But I want to point out that I thought that was interesting two months ago to start that program... And you have another side of it, the other side...
Matt: There's a personal finance argument of owning a lot of stock in your company. That can be very destructive. You don't get to control – your company can go out of business because a pandemic comes...
Either way, the fact that we can reasonably have this discussion today won't help convince someone who is on the fence about taking a dose or two of new vaccines that they have nothing to worry about... especially with an mRNA vaccine, which has never before been approved for use with an infectious disease.
We also pointed out the potential conflicts of interest involved with Moderna's vaccine in that August 31 Digest in relation to "Operation Warp Speed" head Moncef Slaoui... He served on the company's board of directors until mid-May. As Stansberry Venture Technology editor and biotech expert Dave Lashmet said during our Alliance Town Hall event back in August...
The vaccines that are dangerous are pushing themselves to be first... And they're chasing each other to be done in November or October.
Now, the makers of two of these vaccines are expecting emergency use authorization ("EUA") soon after they apply for it... And the government has already said it wants to grant these EUA clearances to give vaccines to front-line health care workers.
Don't get me (Corey McLaughlin) wrong... A true, safe COVID-19 cure – from Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), or any of the other roughly 200 groups trying to develop one – could be a game-changer.
If people actually take it – and remember, that's a huge IF – it could accelerate a return back to "normal" life...
But a dose of reality is helpful for everyone, too...
The Phase III trials we've reported on over the past two Mondays have only been going on for a couple of months. And the results haven't been peer-reviewed yet...
Dave Lashmet told us in a private note today that some fine details exist about side effects and how long immunity lasts. As he explained...
What we haven't seen is side effects – which will be around 5% moderate and 0.5% severe – as well as how long the protection lasts. Nobody wants a vaccine that's good for six months. We'd like to get two years. But this requires a longer trial, to notice the trend of vaccine protection over time.
Overall, Dave said Moderna's vaccine works a lot like Pfizer's, with the same strengths and limitations, "basically because it's a nearly identical vaccine." And he told us that both vaccine candidates suffer from the same distribution challenges, too...
Both also require cold chain – negative-70-degree coolers, which cost $15,000 and aren't made like gumball machines. There will be a backlog.
Moderna did say their vaccine can be stored in a regular refrigerator for up to 30 days, instead of the seven days that it has previously been proven to stay fresh for... But still, the point remains that these things won't be cheap to get to millions of Americans.
Moderna said more testing and follow-ups with patients are needed over the next two months before it expects its EUA to be approved. And again, that's just for front-line workers...
We're likely still looking at the middle of 2021 before these vaccines would be widely available to the public...
It might be hard to stomach and is certainly debatable, but mark this timeline down when plotting the earliest potential "return to normal." (Here, we have flashbacks to our Spanish flu pandemic research from back in May, which saw a few "waves" over a year or two... and disappeared without a vaccine.)
Just yesterday, Uğur Şahin, the co-founder and CEO of Pfizer's German vaccine partner BioNTech, said in an interview with the BBC that he sees the company's vaccine having a bigger impact on the world next winter...
We will not have a big impact on the infection numbers with our vaccine in this winter.
We must learn to live in the meantime.
That's why, as we wrote last week, if you're looking to make a COVID-19 treatment trade in the meantime, before these vaccines hit the market, it's worth taking a look at other parts of the puzzle – like those companies involved in rapid COVID-19 testing.
All that said, Dave explained to us about these mRNA vaccines...
Despite the limitations, this can solve for COVID-19 – mostly – within a year. So that's a remarkable step for science over adversity... and adversaries.
For much more on the science behind COVID-19 and the technology being developed to treat it, be sure to check out Dave's Venture Technology newsletter if you don't already subscribe.
And again, you can also watch Doc and Matt's latest briefing for free right here.
With reported case numbers back on the rise in various parts of the country – as well as around the world – Doc and Matt returned with their first new video in a while. They take an even-headed look at what's going with the pandemic today... how it's impacting the economy... and what might happen next.
And of course, we'll keep covering the "race for a cure" in the Digest in the days, weeks, months (and maybe years) ahead.
The Fed: We Want More Stimulus
Stansberry NewsWire editor C. Scott Garliss joins our colleague Jessica Stone to break down the Federal Reserve's most recent testimony calling for more stimulus.
Click here to watch this video right now. For more free video content, subscribe to our Stansberry Research YouTube channel... and don't forget to follow us on Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Twitter.
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In today's mailbag, feedback on Dan Ferris' Friday Digest. Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Excellent discussion of macro analysis. To me, a very significant underlying phenomenon is 'short-term thinking.' The unwillingness or inability to follow the logic to longer-term outcomes is systemic in politics, and politics continually thinks it can control the economy. Thanks for your thoughtful insights." – Paid-up subscriber Wayne S.
"Dan, thank you for the excellent forest fire analogy used to describe the Federal Reserve's mindset and policies in your article. It also reinforced my sentiments toward the economy. I now have the TLT and Bitcoin ETFs in my portfolio." – Stansberry Alliance member Bob G.
"Spot on. One of the best explanations I've read. The picture you painted with your words will be shared with all of my friends and family." – Stansberry Alliance member S.R.
"Another great article. Please have Dan Ferris write more as I enjoy his insights with the ridiculous Fed and what really goes on behind the scenes with politics and government. Thank you again!" – Paid-up subscriber Cameron D.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
November 16, 2020