A Moment of Truth for the 'Trade War'

Wrapping up our coverage from Las Vegas... Highlights from Day 2 of the 2019 Stansberry Conference... A moment of truth for the 'trade war'... Deal or no deal? We could soon find out...

This week, we've been writing to you live from Las Vegas...

As regular Digest readers know, we're here at the Aria Resort & Casino for the 2019 Stansberry Conference.

We've already shared some of the highlights from this year's event. (If you missed them, be sure to catch up here and here.) But the rest of the all-star line-up was just as impressive...

The second day kicked off with renowned New York University economics professor Dr. Nouriel Roubini...

Longtime readers may recall Roubini earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" for his prescient warnings about credit and housing ahead of the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Today, Roubini is sounding the alarm again...

Like us, he believes the risk of another global crisis is rising. He says we're already seeing signs of a worldwide economic slowdown. But three major issues – the ongoing "trade war" between the U.S. and China, growing geopolitical tensions with Iran, and a potential hard "Brexit" with the United Kingdom leaving the European Union – could dramatically accelerate it.

During his presentation, Roubini also noted that this is happening despite the continued use of "unconventional" monetary policy by the world's central banks... which means we're likely to see even more extreme and unconventional policies in response. He believes we may ultimately see "helicopter money" – where central banks print money and give it directly to consumers.

Another highlight from Tuesday morning's session was forensic accountant Joel Litman...

By now, most readers should be familiar with Professor Litman and his "Investment Truth Detector" system, which can discern the real value of nearly any stock on the market.

As Porter explained during our live event last month, we were so impressed by Professor Litman's work that we agreed to partner with him to launch his new service, Altimetry's High Alpha.

During his presentation, Professor Litman once again "pulled back the curtain" on Wall Street... this time explaining why most analysts' ratings cannot be trusted. If you've ever considered buying or selling a stock based on these ratings, this presentation is not to be missed.

Professor Litman also shared the names and ticker symbols of two new stocks his system has recently identified. He says both of these stocks have tremendous businesses that Wall Street doesn't currently understand... and he believes each has triple-digit upside from here.

The afternoon session on Tuesday featured several notable presentations as well...

Famed financial writer Jim Grant – editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer – highlighted the absurd risks in the government bond market like only he could.

He singled out the 100-year bond recently issued by Austria – which doesn't mature until the year 2117, yet currently pays out a measly 0.72% annual yield – as among the most dangerous in the world today.

If long-term interest rates continue to rise, these bonds will be decimated. In fact, Jim noted that if yields merely rose to 4% – which would still be historically low for long-term sovereign debt of this kind – the price of these bonds would plunge by 70%.

We also heard from Mark Spiegel, portfolio manager of hedge fund Stanphyl Capital, who explained four reasons why he believes shares of electric-car maker Tesla (TSLA) are headed to zero... popular financial commentator Chris Irons, who writes under the moniker "Quoth the Raven" and who detailed why the U.S. economy could be far less healthy than it appears... and Dr. Jim DeMesa, CEO of Emerald Health Pharmaceuticals, who argued that the medical-cannabis industry is one of the greatest wealth-building opportunities in the world today.

Of course, if you've ever joined us at the Stansberry Conference, you know it's not all about investing...

In fact, some of the most popular presentations often have nothing to do with money or finance at all. And this year was no exception...

As we noted earlier this week, comedian Dennis Miller and former NASA and SpaceX astronaut Garrett Reisman were two of the standouts on Monday. On Tuesday, we heard several other fantastic presentations from nonfinancial minds...

Ex-Special Operations sniper and New York Times best-selling author Nick Irving shared a personal story about overcoming adversity... And former FBI hostage negotiator Chris Voss – CEO and founder of negotiation-training company Black Swan – explained how you can use basic negotiation tactics to dramatically improve your personal and business relationships.

We also heard from Dr. Clay Lowder...

He's a board-certified family physician and author of the brand-new book Winners Travel: A Doctor's Guide to Mental, Physical, and Spiritual Health.

Lowder noted that many folks want to change their lives for the better, but most don't know where to begin. He shared several simple but powerful steps anyone can take to make positive changes in their mental, physical, and spiritual lives almost immediately.

Lowder's presentation was especially compelling because he's a Stansberry Research subscriber himself. He has come to previous Stansberry conferences as an attendee rather than a presenter... And he credits these strategies with helping him achieve his dream of becoming a motivational speaker and published author.

Today, we're wrapping up this year's conference with our annual lifetime-members-only Stansberry Alliance meeting...

But if you weren't able to join us live in Vegas (or even online via our livestream) this year, it's still not too late to experience all of the great presentations from the 2019 Stansberry Conference for yourself.

For the next few days, you can still get a full 30 days of access to high-definition video replays of all of Monday's and Tuesday's presentations to watch and re-watch as often as you'd like.

Better yet, you'll get your entire purchase price of $399 back in Stansberry credit. You can use this credit on any one new Stansberry Research publication, including our elite Venture Technology and Venture Value letters.

In other words, if you're already considering a new Stansberry subscription, you can essentially get access to all of this year's Stansberry Conference presentations at no cost.

But please don't delay. This offer won't be available much longer. Click here for all the details.

While we've been away this week, it has been more of the same for the broad stock market...

For months, major U.S. market indexes have been rangebound while we wait to see if the U.S. and China can reach a trade deal at a scheduled meeting later this week. Time and again, we've seen stocks surge on positive trade news... only to later reverse those gains on negative headlines.

It's no surprise, really... As we noted earlier, the global economy appears to be tipping back into recession. And the ongoing trade war with China is surely a big reason why. A legitimate and lasting trade deal would remove this headwind, while further escalation would only strengthen it.

Stocks closed in the red on Monday and Tuesday...

This followed news that the White House placed eight of China's largest technology companies on a "blacklist" over human rights violations.

This morning, the markets opened sharply higher on a report that China was still open to a trade deal this week despite the move. However, while the headlines were bullish, the details weren't entirely positive. As Bloomberg reported...

China is still open to reaching a partial trade deal with the U.S., an official with direct knowledge of the talks said, signaling that Beijing is focused on limiting the damage to the world's second-largest economy.

Negotiators heading to Washington for talks starting Thursday aren't optimistic about securing a broad agreement that would end the trade war between the two nations, said the official, who asked not to be named as the discussions are private.

But China would accept a limited deal – like those it has sought since 2017 – as long as no more tariffs are imposed by President Donald Trump, including two rounds of higher duties set to take effect this month and in December, the official said. In return, Beijing would offer non-core concessions like purchases of agricultural products without giving in on major sticking points, the official said, without offering further details.

Now, even a partial deal would likely be a net positive for the markets and the global economy...

But according to this report, it would likely halt future tariff increases at best. Existing tariffs – which have already been a huge drag on the economy – would remain in place.

More important, it's not at all clear that President Trump would even accept this kind of deal. Remember, the White House has been pushing for China to make major concessions regarding U.S. technology and intellectual property, among others.

If the president were to accept a deal without those concessions, it would be a de-facto admission that the costs of the trade war to date – which have weighed heavily on small businesses and farmers – have been for naught.

Of course, with the 2020 presidential election cycle ramping up and a Democrat-led impeachment probe looming, it's possible that Trump decides to settle for a small "win" this time.

But we still aren't holding our breath... and should this third round of talks end without progress, there may not be a fourth.

New 52-week highs (as of 10/8/19): none.

A quiet day in the mailbag. Did you join us in Vegas (or online via our livestream) this week? We'd love to hear your thoughts about this year's event. Drop us a line at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"Another wonderful day of interesting and informative topics. Roubini and [Mattie] Duppler were especially good in the morning. Roubini's message was depressing, but a good wakeup call. Duppler's focus on understanding what you say vs. what your audience hears was especially relevant. Nick Irving and Clay Lowder were especially noteworthy in the afternoon. Nick clearly is not a polished public speaker but his message and honesty was inspirational." – Paid-up Stansberry Alliance member Thomas S.

Regards,

Justin Brill
Las Vegas, Nevada
October 9, 2019