An important set of stock market numbers you didn't see...

An important set of stock market numbers you didn't see... Wondering how much the stock market has left to run... A lesson on sadism...
 

 How much further does the bull market have to run?
 

It's one of the biggest topics in the financial industry. You hear guests talking about it on CNBC. You read it in all the financial newspapers. And of course, financial gurus who write investment newsletters have plenty of opinions about it. Depending on who you listen to, the market is either going to crash or keep booming.
 

Last month, we hit the six-year anniversary of the 2009 stock market bottom. Since then, the stock market has more than tripled in value. Some of the market's top growth stocks, like coffee chain Starbucks, athletic clothing maker Under Armour, and home entertainment giant Netflix are up more than 700%. Some of the big social media firms, like Facebook and Twitter, are trading for the sky-high valuation of more than 10 times sales.
 

 Does all that mean the market is "old" and expensive and set for a crash? I see market analysts playing with the numbers to make the case that the market is reasonably valued or richly valued. You can use the numbers to make either case.
 

Right now, I'm much more interested in a new set of numbers... one Steve Sjuggerud just highlighted in Monday's edition of our free e-letter DailyWealth.
 

 Before I share these numbers with you, we need to cover an extremely important aspect of the stock market that you rarely hear about. The material describing your company's 401(k) plan won't tell you this. Finance professors won't tell you this. Your financial advisor won't tell you this. It's too scary. Here it is...
 

The stock market tends to punish as many people as possible, as often as possible.
 

If the market were a person, you'd call it a bully or a sadist. Whatever you call it, know that its nature is to punish as many people as possible, as often as possible.
 

When a huge portion of the investment public stampedes into an asset – when the herd reaches "true believer" status and deems the asset a sure thing, you know the market is about to enter a correction – or worse, a crash.
 

 We saw this phenomenon at work in 2000. Back then, I remember grade-school teachers and personal trainers passing me stock tips. You had people quitting their regular jobs to become day traders. Millions of people put their entire life savings in the stock market. They all had the same belief: that stocks were a sure bet. More Americans bet on stocks than at any other time in our nation's history.
 

Just after drawing all these folks in, the Nasdaq crashed 78% in less than three years.
 

 We saw this happen in real estate between 2006 and 2008. Back then, I remember grade-school teachers and personal trainers passing me home-flipping tips. You had people quitting their regular jobs to become real estate investors, real estate agents, and mortgage brokers.
 

Just after drawing all these folks in, the real estate market crashed.
 

 Why do markets behave like this? Why does it seem like markets "try" to inflict all this pain?
 

It's just the nature of investing. When "everyone" is in, there's no one left to buy. Eventually, the last available buyer scoops up the asset. After that point is reached, it's easy for the market to crash.
 

It takes a massive amount of buying power to drive a market higher. It only takes the absence of buying power for a market to crash.
 

 With all this in mind, let's review a set of numbers contained in a new report from the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finances. This report says that the percentage of Americans in the stock market is at its lowest level in decades.
 

There's no point in trying to summarize Steve's thoughts on these numbers. We're reprinting his DailyWealth essay below. Steve's piece will take you less than two minutes to finish... and it's one of the most important things you'll read all month.
 

 

Big Upside Still Ahead – Most Americans STILL NOT in Stocks
By Dr. Steve Sjuggerud
 

I have some fantastic news for you...
 

"At a time when the U.S. stock market is still flirting with record highs, more than half of Americans are standing on the sidelines," USA Today reported last week.
 

You might ask, "Why is that fantastic news? Doesn't that mean that most people missed the stock market boom?"
 

I look at this a different way... The way I see it, millions of stock investors are still sitting on the sidelines.
 

This is important news...
 

The stock market typically doesn't peak until the largest percentage of the population is in the market.
 

Today, we are in the opposite situation.
 

Looked at one way, we have the lowest percentage of families in stocks in decades...
 

The chart below comes from the Survey of Consumer Finances by the Federal Reserve. This survey is only done every three years, but I like it because you can learn a lot about the long-term trends with Americans and their money.
 

We obviously don't have the 2016 number yet... but based on the most recent number that we do have, fewer families hold stocks than we have seen in decades.
 

As I'm sure you know, the stock market last peaked in 2000... While we don't have a data point in the chart for the year 2000 (just 2001), I'm certain that the highest percentage of Americans were invested in stocks in the year 2000.
 

Why? Because – at the peak in the stock market – the highest percentage of people are in stocks.
 

When you look at this chart, you can see that we are nowhere near that level today. You can see that Americans have not loaded up on stocks yet. But they will.
 

USA Today's story saying that most people are not in stocks didn't surprise me.
 

What it does tell me is that – even after six straight years of gains – stocks can go higher.
 

We can be sure that there are plenty of folks still on the sidelines, not in the market yet. The thing is, when this stock market boom finally peaks, a good number of those folks WILL be in the market. You can count on it.
 

My friend, the opportunity in U.S. stocks has not peaked yet... Everyone is not in yet.
 

We still have plenty of upside potential in U.S. stocks.
 

Make sure you take advantage of it.
 

Good investing,
 

Steve
 

 

 New 52-week highs (as of 4/13/15): Deutsche X-trackers Harvest China A-Shares Fund (ASHR), AXIS Capital (AXS), Blackstone Group (BX), Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT), Global X China Financials Fund (CHIX), iShares China Large-Cap Fund (FXI), Prestige Brands Holdings (PBH), and ProShares Ultra FTSE China 50 Fund (XPP).
 

 The mailbag flooded with subscribers praising Steve Sjuggerud and his incredible track record. We've selected some of our favorites below. Send your notes to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
 

 "I just started reading Steve seriously after a few years of trial and error and I have to say I agree with you 100%. My only regret is that I am still building up the amount I can invest. ASHR was my first purchase and I am still with it. I don't know how he does it, but I intend to continue to benefit from his excellent recommendations... great job of singing his praises Brian." – Paid-up subscriber Michael Porter
 

 "I bought ASHR first in Sept. 2014 ($25.14/sh) and again in October 2014 ($25.45/sh) based upon Steve's recommendation. Today it closed at about $44.00/sh. That is basically a 75% gain in just a little over 6 months. I'm a true believer in Steve's picks." – Paid-up subscriber Rick Rosendahl
 

 "Have made good investment decisions after reading Steve's True Wealth letter, also can't tell you how much I appreciate hearing him live on the podcasts! I'm sure Steve has done very well financially, and you can't buy a happy lifestyle like he has working in N.Y. or for a Hedge fund! His family as well as himself will win the most and so they should! Very much appreciate everything he stands for and the quality of work he provides!" – Paid-up subscriber Garth Bakke
 

 "All of you people at Stansberry Research are incredibly smart and talented. But Dr. Sjuggerud is probably my favorite – partly because he seems so unconventional. I would go into deep depression if he were to quit – his excellent advice has been extremely helpful to me (and my family)." – Paid-up subscriber W. Bryant
 

 "I agree that it is vital to our financial futures that we keep Steve from getting the 'big idea.' All we need is a pledge of secrecy and the collusion of half a million readers to keep all copies of the Tuesday Stansberry Digest away from Steve's inbox." – Paid-up subscriber Brenda Robison
 

 "I couldn't agree more concerning your praise for Steve's work in True Wealth. True Wealth was one of my first investment letters (probably 7-8 years ago I first subscribed to my first True Wealth letter) that I purchased. It was very reasonably priced and has enabled me to earn thousands of dollars with some of my investments that were driven by his advice. Biotech was the most lucrative for me but there certainly were others.
 

"Because of True Wealth I now subscribe to at least three other Stansberry pubs that I do like but none as much as True Wealth. I am sure to anyone who likes to invest on their own True Wealth is a great place to start." – Paid-up subscriber Denny C.
 

 "I just wanted to let you know how true your Digest was today. Using True Wealth as a 'get people in the door' strategy by offering the service at a low introductory rate does work. I am a prime example. I originally subscribed to True Wealth for $39... Then I started getting the free Stansberry Digest where they inserted a number of other newsletters editors. I immediately loved what Doc had to say in his Newsletters Retirement Millionaire and Income Intelligence." – Anonymous
 

Hunt comment: Thank you to everyone who wrote to us. We were overwhelmed by the incredible things people wrote in to say about Steve. If you missed that Digest, be sure to read it right here.
 

Regards,
 

Brian Hunt

Baltimore, Maryland

April 14, 2015