Front-row seats for $35

We drove up to the Spirit Mountain Casino on Sunday to see John Legend in concert. Front-row tickets were $35. We paid $15 a seat to sit in the back. It was wonderful. He's a talented young guy who sings and plays well.

It amazed me the casino charged so little. I guess it's desperate to get bodies in the building. I made a mental note to check other out-of-the-way casino venues for cheap concerts.

It must stink being a director of a public company. Every day, there's a dark cloud hanging over your head as you wait for the world to find out you don't know anything and you're not doing anything. And it seems you're always the last to know anything important...

Take the board of Horace Mann Educators, the company that sells insurance to teachers. The board found out recently that Horace Mann CEO Louis Lower had been in jail for three days. Lower was charged with a DUI over the Memorial Day weekend back in May. He told fellow executives about the charges in July. But the board didn't find out until September 9, after he'd been in jail for three days.

Can you imagine being on that board and finding out the CEO had kept this kind of information from you for more than three months? And that other members of the corporate suite kept it a secret for almost two months?

My wife should become a public company director. She asks me where I was and what took me so long every time I come home. She'd have sniffed out Lower's Memorial Day DUI charge by June 1.

Hype about the stock market must be the most insidious hype of all. "Stocks inch higher in twitchy trading," said the Financial Times website headline today.

Is it possible for the stock market to twitch? No, of course not. But it is possible for the line on a real-time price graph of, say, the S&P 500 or maybe your favorite bellwether stock to deliver a twitchy-looking performance on any given day.

That's what most people call investing. Most people think they're going to get rich watching price charts twitch. When they see a twitch they like, they buy it. They spend hours examining twitchy lines and labeling them with names like support, resistance, accumulation, and capitulation.

For the average herd member, the stock market is a giant Rorschach test. The market shows them pictures, and they vomit up a quick response with as little thought as possible. Unfortunately for most herd members, they vomit money... and the market comes along and mops it up.

We wrote it, and now it's happening...

Big companies like Intel, Microsoft, Apple, Cisco... can borrow as much as they want at the lowest rates available. They don't need to hoard cash. They hold cash because they generate so much of it. They literally can't deploy it fast enough. They should all acknowledge their shortcomings at cash deployment and either pay regular dividends or make a habit of repurchasing shares any time they're cheap enough.

Aside from share repurchases and regular dividends, companies can also deploy cash by paying out large one-time, "special" dividends. That's an option you can probably bet on between now and December 31. Komrade Obama's regime plans to increase the top federal income-tax rate on dividends from 15% to 39.6% by next year...

Reasons to expect special dividends are everywhere (not including the proposed dividend-tax hike). Corporations are bloated with cash they can't or won't deploy. They're either too scared to spend it or can't think of anything to do with it. Also, takeover activity is on the rise.

Keep an eye on World Dominators like Microsoft. It's way too big to be a takeover target, but it could pay out $3 a share in cash (about 12% of the current share price) and still have more than $10 billion left over. – Sean Goldsmith and Dan Ferris, September 9, 2010 Digest

Yesterday, Microsoft said it'll sell debt this year to finance dividends and share repurchases. It will raise as much as it can without risking its triple-A rating – likely around $6 billion. In fact, ratings agency Egan-Jones affirmed Microsoft's triple-A rating this morning.

Microsoft already has nearly $37 billion of cash on its balance sheet. And it generated $22 billion in free cash flow last year. Microsoft has been under pressure to return some of that cash to shareholders. It's issuing debt to repurchase shares instead of paying out cash because debt is super cheap today. Also, much of Microsoft's cash is held overseas. It wants to avoid paying heavy taxes to transfer the money.

With an extra $6 billion, Microsoft could more than double its dividend from last year. Or it could repurchase nearly 3% of the shares outstanding. Shares jumped over 5% on the news.

Share buybacks are doing well for Best Buy. Its second-quarter profit soared 61% over last year's second quarter. Best Buy repurchased about 17 million shares in the second quarter, for around $34 each. That added a penny to earnings per share in the quarter. Management says it'll add $0.10 a share to earnings for the whole year.

If Best Buy keeps buying back stock during slow times and times of negative investor sentiment, its stock will take off like a rocket when good times and positive investor sentiment return. Shares were up 6% today.

Best Buy's same-store sales for the quarter were down 0.1%. That's not good, but everyone is looking in the rearview mirror. Last year, second-quarter same-store sales were down 3.9%. Things are bad, but they're a lot less bad than last year.

Yesterday, Warren Buffett – the world's most successful investor – told an executive summit in Montana, "I am a huge bull on this country. We will not have a double-dip recession at all. I see our businesses coming back almost across the board."

Berkshire Hathaway bought railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe for $27 billion in February. Buffett called the deal a bet on the U.S. economy.

Also on that topic, in the week ended September 4, U.S. railroads loaded more cars than in any week this year. And there were more carloads in August than in any month since November 2008. High commodity demand (both agricultural and energy-related) is driving the numbers.

Buffett also said, "I've seen sentiment turn sour in the last three months or so, generally in the media. I don't see that in our businesses. I see we're employing more people than a month ago, two months ago." He also said banks are anxious to lend... "I know Wells Fargo… They would love to have $50 billion more of loans now."

Another billionaire finance guru, James Simons – founder of the quantitative hedge fund Renaissance Technologies – is also bullish (in a more muted way). Simons is a good guy to listen to. His flagship Medallion Fund has returned 45% a year since its 1988 inception. Today, he is surprised the market isn't lower. He said the market is "resilient" and added, "Maybe it won't go much lower."

Despite all of the bullish news, everyone's favorite disaster insurance – gold – is still up almost $20 an ounce to a new record, today.

We've all been so terrified for the last two years... just believing there's no double dip coming is quite a step toward bullishness for most people. I suspect this is how inflation will start this time around.

First, we get bullish comments from people like Buffett and Simons. Then, maybe, if this keeps up and stocks sell for 25 times earnings and the headlines scream growth, growth, growth, and declare the death of bad times... that's when things start getting out of hand.

One day, you realize it costs $100 to fill up your gas tank, when it used to cost $50. And you're spending more at the grocery store than the year before. And your utility bills just went up – again. And it's getting harder for the working man to make it to his next paycheck.

Before you know it, gold is $3,000 an ounce and the Fed is raising interest rates to try to cool it down. But by then, it's too late.

According to this morning's Wall Street Journal, retail sales rose 0.4% in August and business inventories rose 1.0%. The Journal says this is good, because experts expected a 0.3% retail sales rise and a 0.8% inventory rise. It's as if the Journal is saying life is good because forecasters are bad at a job no one is ever good at.

What are people buying so much of? Food, gasoline, and groceries... stuff they buy every day, anyway. They're buying less furniture, electronics, and appliances, though.

Apple is giving away iPods to teachers and students who buy computers. Staples is discounting memory sticks and laptop computers. And teen-clothing retailer Charlotte Russe is selling T-shirts for $1.99 and taking 50% off your second pair of jeans. Heck, for $1.99, I might buy a T-shirt from Charlotte Russe. I could probably sell them on eBay for $5 each.

New highs: Mag Silver (MVG), AuEx Ventures (XAU.TO), DirecTV (DTV), iShares Silver (SLV), Philip Morris (PM).

We'd love to hear from you. In particular, if you have any experience in any of the businesses we write about in the Digest, we'd love to get your inside viewpoint.

Today, we mentioned Best Buy, Apple, Microsoft, Staples, Charlotte Russe, Intel, Cisco, Horace Mann Educators, and Berkshire Hathaway. If you have any experience with any of these companies or any of these industries, tell us about it. Write to us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"What do I need to subscribe to, to [sell put options]?" – Jim McAuley

Goldsmith comment: If you're interested in selling puts, I recommend you read our new Retirement Trader service. In his newest advisory, Dr. David Eifrig uses the secrets he learned from a decade on Wall Street (including a stint as a proprietary trader for Goldman Sachs) to produce super-safe and consistent gains for readers.

He's used his trading system to create a small fortune for himself. He even introduced Porter to selling puts... It quickly became Porter's favorite trading strategy. We hope you'll give Doc's system a try. You'll have a difficult time finding a way to generate such fast and safe income with any other method. You can learn more here...

Regards,

Dan Ferris and Sean Goldsmith
Medford, Oregon and Baltimore, Maryland
September 14, 2010

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