Interest rates are still dropping...
Interest rates are still dropping... Why the biggest gains have yet to come... What happens when rates rise... Thanks, Bernanke... Private equity apes Buffett... Get on the right side of the bridge...
As the markets sold off yesterday and volatility spiked, money moved into safety. Yields on the 10-year Treasury fell to a 16-month low of 2.21%.
The Federal Reserve is expected to end quantitative easing (QE) this month. And as our own Steve Sjuggerud has predicted, the Fed could raise interest rates early next year...
The economy is improving, but we're not out of the woods yet. The recent rallies in Treasury securities and volatility are proof of the market's trepidation.
And the Fed has to be careful with a premature rate increase. Recent comments from Fed representatives show they're aware of the sensitive situation... Yesterday, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said the central bank should be "exceptionally patient" before raising rates. Over the weekend, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said slowing global growth could delay a domestic rate hike.
The questions remain: What will happen when the Fed eventually raises interest rates? Will the rally be over?
Before answering those questions, let's review the benefits we've received from the trillions of dollars the Fed pumped into the system...
With interest rates at record lows and huge waves of capital hitting the economy, we've seen a rally across nearly all assets – stocks, Treasurys, junk bonds, real estate, art, etc...
Since the Fed initiated its first round of QE on November 25, 2008, the S&P 500 has soared more than 130%.
The Case-Shiller Index – which measures the price of single-family homes in 20 of the largest cities and metropolitan areas across the U.S. – is up more than 12% over the same period.
For one, October 1 marked the best year in fund manager Jeremy Grantham's "Election-Cycle Indicator."
Grantham, of famed asset manager GMO, found that nearly all of the stock market's gains come in the third year of our four-year presidential election cycle. Stocks have returned an average of 26.2% (not including dividends) in the third year of the election cycle. Adjusting for dividends, stocks have never had a losing third year in the cycle. You can read more about the cycle right here.
And in the September 30 DailyWealth, Steve explained why stocks have historically risen when the Fed hikes interest rates...
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You can see how the market could play out (based on the last three cycles of rising interest rates) in the chart below...
Quantitative easing has been a gift to the wealthy. As the Fed boosted asset prices across the board, those who owned assets grew richer. And low interest rates allowed them to borrow more money to buy more productive assets.
It seems no target is too large. We've already seen takeovers involving brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev, food-processing company Heinz, and media mogul Time Warner, to name a few. We saw biotech giant Pfizer try (and fail) to purchase fellow competitor AstraZeneca for an astounding $118 billion.
Much like the savers who are forced to put their cash into stocks and bonds, corporations have lots of cash... and they want out.
These companies can borrow tons of money cheaply and buy out their competitors for massive amounts of money, consolidating the field.
In the October 2013 issue of Stansberry's Investment Advisory, Porter wrote a thank-you letter to former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. No other man in history has done so much to benefit the wealthy...
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As Porter explained, Bernanke was as good as his word. When the debt bubble burst, he followed through on his promises, matching the Treasury's deficit spending with newly created money. The Fed bought more than $3 trillion in Treasury bonds and mortgage bonds...
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Private-equity groups are now looking to partner with major investors (like state-owned sovereign wealth funds) to buy global companies with great brands.
Private-equity firms traditionally raise funds from investors and lenders to buy companies. They try to improve the company and sell it for 20% annual returns within five years.
Now, they want to invest like the world's greatest investor, Warren Buffett – buying large and stable companies with excellent brands. As David Rubenstein – founder of private-equity firm Carlyle – said on a July conference call...
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And they're competing against the sovereign wealth funds themselves... These funds have hired their own managers to invest directly into stable companies. For example, in September, Singaporean sovereign wealth fund GIC bought half of British roadside-recovery specialist RAC from Carlyle for $3.2 billion (in U.S. dollars).
More great American companies are on the chopping block – with more deep-pocketed bidders on the sidelines.
The concentration of wealth continues. As Porter wrote earlier this month, there's a drawbridge opening in America. Which side will you be on?
New 52-week highs (as of 10/13/14): National Beverage (FIZZ), ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury Fund (UBT), and short position in Washington Prime Group (WPG).
In today's mailbag, one subscriber tells us he enjoyed Porter's Friday Digest, another asks about trailing stops, and a third finds one of our recommendations immoral. Tell us what's on your mind at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Porter, the Friday Digest on 'The worst investment mistake in history' is another great lesson to us, your subscribers. You don't want to call it teaching, but let me assure you the learning continues. These examples of real mistakes are a profound way to convey the traps that are so easy to fall into. If Buffett can screw up this badly, imagine what happens to the more casual investor who spends 60 hours of their week on a day job and squeezes in investment research after hours.
"Value is the trap. How you value things is very tricky business as Warren learned with his textile looms. Who would have thought modern equipment was worth less than scrap metal? This one will stay with me a LONG time, as I'm sure it has with Buffett.
"Speaking of mistakes, I'm writing you from Shanghai where I'm on business travel to our supplier factories. Shanghai and even more Beijing are engulfed in dense smog this week and public controversy rages on how to deal with their competing priorities of air quality and economic growth. Somewhere in this is another great book for you to write... Lessons on High Quality Living. Thanks for all your efforts on our behalf." – Paid-up subscriber Bud Jenkins
"As oil and energy related stocks drop I have received alerts from TradeStops (an outstanding program by the way) that I have reached the 25% stop loss. I immediately sell those stocks and don't look back per your advice. However I often ponder on that theory of when you own stock in good companies that you feel have a good future, shouldn't you be buying on the dips instead of selling? Do you ever make exceptions to your stop loss rule? Thanks for a great service and ongoing education." – Paid-up subscriber Tom G.
Goldsmith comment: We don't make exceptions. Following your trailing stops and using proper position sizing helps to avoid any catastrophic losses in your portfolio. Trailing stops exist to take the emotion out of investing. Holding onto a 25% loss in your portfolio is when your emotions often run the highest. For those reasons, we don't recommend ignoring your trailing stops.
Plus, if you feel strongly about a position, you can always re-open it down the road – though we recommend taking a month or two to "cool off" and reevaluate the company.
"I just received a mailing from S&A encouraging me to cash in on the marijuana industry. That spoke volumes to me about the moral standing of this company. No regard whatever for the moral decline and all for the buck. Your stand will soon become far too expensive before the Throne. Nuff Said. DON'T SEND any more amoral garbage to me EVER. I am indescribably incensed at this action." – Paid-up subscriber Joseph Aldridge
Goldsmith comment: We're in the business of recommending stocks, not making moral choices for our subscribers. We've never apologized for recommending controversial stocks. Some of Extreme Value editor Dan Ferris' top-performing recommendations are in stocks that some people might consider controversial, including tobacco giants Altria (up 144%) and Philip Morris International (up 106%) and alcohol icons Anheuser-Busch InBev (up 130%) and Constellation Brands (up 297%).
The decision to follow our recommendations is your own... If you're uncomfortable with the idea of owning these companies, don't buy them.
Regards,
Sean Goldsmith
October 14, 2014
The big picture in consumer credit demand...
Credit-card holders are using their plastic less frivolously, leading to a slowdown in U.S. consumer borrowing, according to a recent Bloomberg article.
In today's Digest Premium, Kroll Bond Ratings managing director Christopher Whalen explains the drivers behind this trend...
To subscribe to Digest Premium and receive a free hardback copy of Jim Rogers' latest book, click here.
The big picture in consumer credit demand...
Editor's note: Credit-card holders are using their plastic less frivolously, leading to a slowdown in U.S. consumer borrowing, according to a recent Bloomberg article. In today's Digest Premium, Kroll Bond Ratings managing director Christopher Whalen explains the drivers behind this trend...
Consumer credit demand is down for a few reasons... The U.S. still has a relatively weak job market. Consumer income is still flat or down, depending on whose statistics you look at. In terms of mortgage credit, there's a whole raft of reasons why consumers are not going to be applying for a mortgage today... partly jobs, partly income.
The second big factor is the tough regulatory environment since the 2008 crisis – the 2010 Dodd-Frank legislation and the Basel capital rules. These reforms have created barriers to banks and even non-banks that extend credit to consumers.
Regulators have put a number of harsh penalties and fines in place that make it problematic for lenders to extend credit to a customer for a mortgage loan who has even a moderate probability of defaulting.
Today, if you look at the big government agencies – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – the average FICO credit score of loans that they guarantee is still well over 700.
Former Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank – who sponsored the Dodd-Frank law – testified in front of Congress a couple months ago. He basically said that the objective was to restrict the availability of credit for the mortgage market.
This year, we're going to be lucky to do $1 trillion in new mortgages. Back in 2004 and 2005 during the boom, we did close to $4 trillion. We're running way below levels of credit creation for housing that we've seen in the past.
Housing and autos are a little better. The auto sector has actually been robust. Credit cards are kind of flat. Overall, I think the demand for credit is muted because of a number of economic and regulatory factors.
Without some change in the legal environment – which I don't see happening any time soon – it will remain problematic for lenders to extend below prime credit.
When people write loans today, they have to be fully documented. They have to check with the IRS to see that you filed your taxes. These businesses now have to work in a draconian, deterministic environment.
The real question is, how long are our politicians and citizens going to tolerate the low levels of growth that we have because of this environment?
I think we'll have to get through a midterm election. If the Republicans take the Senate, we may start to see some effort to amend these laws and change some of these rules... But we may not make any headway on that until the 2016 general election, if not longer.
– Christopher Whalen
Editor's note: In tomorrow's Digest Premium, Christopher will discuss the health of the U.S. banking industry... and how to invest in banks in today's environment of regulatory red tape...
The big picture in consumer credit demand...
Credit-card holders are using their plastic less frivolously, leading to a slowdown in U.S. consumer borrowing, according to a recent Bloomberg article.
In today's Digest Premium, Kroll Bond Ratings managing director Christopher Whalen explains the drivers behind this trend...
To continue reading, scroll down or click here.