Is gold bottoming?...

The stocks I want to buy after a correction...

 Right now, you're probably enjoying big gains on several positions in your portfolio. I (Brian Hunt) think selling covered calls on some of those stocks makes sense. If you own some cheap blue-chip stocks, like Intel or Microsoft, you can use that as a strategy to earn 12%-15% yields on very safe stocks.

This is a strategy we regularly use in DailyWealth Trader. For example, in the January 2 issue, Amber Lee Mason recommended selling covered calls on Cisco...

After [Cisco] announced layoffs this summer, the stock suffered a swift 12% drop. We thought it was overdone. And over the next few months, we suggested selling both calls and puts on the stock. In all, we recommended seven trades.

But even after an 18% decline from the September peak, only one trade stopped out. With the stock's big December rally, the rest of the trades are now either breakeven or profitable.

If you're holding shares of Cisco today, you can make your trade even more profitable...

Right now, you can sell the February $23 covered calls for about $0.48...

If Cisco climbs over $23 by expiration day in February, you'll sell your shares at $23 and earn some capital gains. If Cisco stays below $23 through expiration, you'll pocket the $0.48 and get to keep your shares. You can then sell more calls to generate even more income.

Selling covered calls is a good idea as long as you own safe, blue-chip companies bought at a reasonable price.

 As I've said previously, we could see a 5%-10% market correction in the near future. If that happens, the calls you sold will likely expire worthless... And you'll maintain your original equity position.

If we get that correction, I'm going to be looking to sell puts on blue chips. It's smart to have a game plan leading up to that correction so you know exactly what you want to buy... and at what price.

 My "shopping list" today is similar to the shopping lists of a lot of value investors. I would be looking to see if Coke and McDonald's are oversold... I'd also be looking at Microsoft, Internet "plumber" Cisco, booze giant Anheuser-Busch InBev, and cigarette maker Philip Morris. In general, I'm looking for businesses that have great brands – the types of companies investing legend Warren Buffett likes to buy.

I generally watch the same group of stocks when there's a substantial market selloff. And the companies that have decades of uninterrupted dividend growth tend to draw in folks looking for income. The large dividends give these stocks a natural buoyancy, which helps them rally after a 5%-15% correction. Those companies are excellent vehicles for executing a put- and call-selling program.

– Brian Hunt

The stocks I want to buy after a correction...

In today's Digest Premium, S&A Editor in Chief Brian Hunt discusses a strategy to help lock in your gains today... and lists a number of stocks he'd like to buy if we see a short-term market correction...

To continue reading, scroll down or click here.

 

 

Stansberry & Associates Top 10 Open Recommendations
(Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all S&A portfolios)

As of 01/14/2014

 

 

Stock Symbol Buy Date Return Publication Editor
Rite Aid 8.5% 767754BU7 02/06/09 674.3% True Income Williams
Prestige Brands PBH 05/13/09 438.7% Extreme Value Ferris
Constellation Brands STZ 06/02/11 281.0% Extreme Value Ferris
Enterprise EPD 10/15/08 249.5% The 12% Letter Dyson
Ultra Health Care RXL 03/17/11 225.3% True Wealth Sjuggerud
Fluidigm FLDM 08/04/11 197.5% Phase 1 Curzio
Ultra Nasdaq Biotech BIB 12/05/12 195.5% True Wealth Sys Sjuggerud
GenMark Diagnostics GNMK 08/04/11 191.5% Phase 1 Curzio
Ultra Health Care RXL 01/04/12 184.1% True Wealth Sys Sjuggerud
Altria MO 11/19/08 181.2% The 12% Letter Dyson

Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any S&A publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.

 

 

Top 10 Totals
1 True Income Williams
2 Extreme Value Ferris
2 The 12% Letter Dyson
1 True Wealth Sjuggerud
2 Phase 1 Curzio
2 True Wealth Sys Sjuggerud

 

Stansberry & Associates Hall of Fame
(Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all S&A portfolios)

 

Investment Sym Holding Period Gain Publication Editor
Seabridge Gold SA 4 years, 73 days 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud
ATAC Resources ATC 313 days 597% Phase 1 Badiali
JDS Uniphase JDSU 1 year, 266 days 592% SIA Stansberry
Silver Wheaton SLW 1 year, 185 days 345% Resource Rpt Badiali
Jinshan Gold Mines JIN 290 days 339% Resource Rpt Badiali
Medis Tech MDTL 4 years, 110 days 333% Diligence Ferris
ID Biomedical IDBE 5 years, 38 days 331% Diligence Lashmet
Northern Dynasty NAK 1 year, 343 days 322% Resource Rpt Badiali
Texas Instr. TXN 270 days 301% SIA Stansberry
MS63 Saint-Gaudens   5 years, 242 days 273% True Wealth Sjuggerud

The stocks I want to buy after a correction...

In today's Digest Premium, S&A Editor in Chief Brian Hunt discusses a strategy to help lock in your gains today... and lists a number of stocks he'd like to buy if we see a short-term market correction...

To subscribe to Digest Premium and receive a free hardback copy of Jim Rogers' latest book, click here.

Is gold bottoming?... The sentiment in gold stocks is negative... Big buyouts in the sector... A couple takeover prospects... Private-equity CEO on the current state of affairs... Sell Amazon?...

 When several of our analysts become bullish on the same idea at the same time, you should pay attention.

Last year, for example, Porter, Extreme Value editor Dan Ferris, and Retirement Millionaire editor Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig all told their readers to buy shares of what Dan calls "World Dominators."

These are blue-chip companies like semiconductor giant Intel, software icon Microsoft, and pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson. They dominate their industries, gush cash, and reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. At the time, these companies were trading at low valuations.

Anyone who bought shares of these companies is sitting on big gains today. Intel is up 20% in the last four months. Microsoft is up 19%. Johnson & Johnson is up 10%.

 Today, we have a similar situation in gold stocks...

Several of our analysts think we're hitting a bottom. Hear us out... After considering the information we present today, we think you'll agree that gold stocks are one of the best values in the market today.

 In today's DailyWealth Trader, Amber Lee Mason explained why negative sentiment in the gold sector is bullish...
 

We like to judge sentiment with the "commitment of traders" (or "COT") report. This government report tracks trading levels in all sorts of markets. When certain types of traders reach an extreme level of bullishness or bearishness, it can signal an impending market reversal.

After we showed you a COT extreme in the oil market, for example, prices fell 11%. After we showed you a COT extreme in the copper market, prices broke out to a new eight-month high. And after we showed you a COT extreme in silver, prices on the exchange-traded fund SLV hit a two-month high.

Today, we're showing you a COT extreme in gold...

Gold prices moved higher for 12 straight years... until last year. Gold was down 28% in 2013. And it's down a total of 35% from its 2011 peak. The recent bear market has pushed gold speculators to an extreme level of pessimism.

 

The chart below shows the last eight years of trading in gold (the black line) and the gold positions held by speculative trading funds (the blue line). As you can see, speculative trading funds are holding a relatively small position in gold... In fact, it's near its lowest level since 2005.

 In yesterday's S&A Short Report, Jeff Clark told readers...

The Market Vectors Gold Miners Fund (GDX) broke above a key resistance level yesterday.

It should be off to the races from here. And gold stocks could show huge gains over the next few weeks...

GDX has positive divergence on the MACD momentum indicator. And you can see the 50-DMA declining as the stock consolidates. Yesterday, GDX broke above its 50-DMA. That should signal the start of a new uptrend for the sector. Notice also that the nine-day EMA has curled higher and is on the verge of crossing above the 50-DMA. If we get this bullish cross, it really should be off to the races for the mining sector.

At a minimum, GDX should approach the first blue resistance line at about $26 per share. Given how oversold the sector is and the overwhelming bearish sentiment toward mining stocks, we could even see GDX approach the $30 level over the next couple months.


 Just this morning, in his real-time Direct Line blog, Jeff wrote...
 

Love the action in GDX right now.

With gold down $9, GDX opened lower. But, it has recovered the earlier losses and is now up a couple pennies on the day. If it can hold in positive territory, it'll create a nice, bullish look on the chart.


 And in today's Growth Stock Wire, S&A Resource Report researcher Brian Weepie noted, "Big gold companies are pulling out their checkbooks... And that's a sign that gold stocks are bottoming."

On Monday, Goldcorp, one of the largest gold mining firms, offered $2.4 billion for Montreal-based Osisko Mining. It's the biggest deal in the mining sector since 2012.

But this isn't Goldcorp's first brush with Osisko... It owned 10% of the company and sold that stake for C$530 million in February 2011. Now it's offering to buy the whole company for half the valuation from when it sold its shares... Goldcorp is taking advantage of the carnage we saw in the gold market last year.

 But Goldcorp isn't the only mining firm making purchases recently. More from Weepie...

Another notable example is Canadian miner Primero Mining's $220 million purchase of fellow junior miner Brigus Gold. Primero will provide cash to develop Brigus' Black Fox mine in Ontario and to advance the nearby Grey Fox project.

And in October, mid-tier producer New Gold completed its purchase of explorer Rainy River Resources.

 Mining experts say they were waiting for a flurry of buyout activity in the space... and that the purchases could mark the bottom.

As you can see from the chart below, junior mining stocks were crushed last year, falling more than 50%...

 Today, large, deep-pocketed miners have the opportunity to buy smaller companies with lots of gold in the ground for pennies on the dollar. Frank Holmes, CEO of resource-investing firm U.S. Global Investors, appeared on an episode of Stansberry Radio last month. Here's what he said...
 

[Junior miners] are offering extreme attractiveness because we're witnessing when takeovers take place – and it's not just mining; it's also in bigger-cap oil companies – these are 80%-120% premiums. So basically, it's suggesting that the cheapest reserves and resources are listed, not in the ground. You don't need to go explore for them and have that risk capital.

In fact, you can buy so many attractive companies... because the average junior mining company is trading around $30 for an ounce of gold in the ground reserves, and you're getting these things taken over at $125 an ounce.

 Weepie shared some companies he thinks could be next on the chopping block:

Developer Pretium Resources is an example of a buyout candidate. A recently concluded sample program at its Brucejack project in northern British Columbia confirmed large amounts of gold and silver there. Shares jumped from less than $3 per share to more than $5. Pretium plans to begin producing in 2016. A producer may want to buy and develop Pretium to take advantage of its high grades.

Prospect generator and explorer Almaden Minerals is also a potential buyout candidate. Almaden continues to grow the footprint of its Ixtaca deposit in Mexico. The initial resource estimate announced last year included 1.7 million and 98.5 million ounces of gold and silver resources, respectively.

 Last year was brutal for gold stocks... The Market Vectors Gold Miners Fund (GDX) finished 2013 down 54%. Investors hit their trailing stops and sold in disgust. Even the thought of buying gold stocks today probably makes you groan... But that's exactly when you should be buying.

As we've shown you above, many mining stocks are trading for a fraction of the value of their gold in the ground... We're starting to see some big buyouts in the sector... Sentiment toward gold stocks is still negative... And the fundamentals show we could soon see a big rally. It's a juicy setup.

 Our colleague Frank Curzio is also jumping back into gold stocks...

In the January issue of Small Stock Specialist – which hit e-mail inboxes tonight – Frank recommends a little-known gold-royalty stock.

Unlike regular gold stocks, royalty companies don't mine any gold of their own. Instead, they finance lots of early-stage mining projects, then earn royalties on mine production if things work out.

This company is sitting on almost $100 million of cash (and zero debt) that it can put to work financing beaten-down mining stocks.

And even though this firm is producing record sales, the stock has gotten clobbered over the past year. Frank says buying the stock today could lead to triple-digit gains in the next two years.

If you want access to Frank's top name in gold stocks today, you have to sign up for Small Stock Specialist. If you decide Frank's research isn't for you, we offer a four-month, 100% money-back guarantee. Click here to learn more.

 David Rubenstein, co-founder of private-equity giant The Carlyle Group, spoke to CNBC yesterday about the state of the private-equity market.

We've talked about two of S&A's favorite private-equity recommendations – Blackstone Group (BX) and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) – many times, so we won't revisit the bullish argument in depth.

But these firms dominated under the Fed's monetary policy... They were able to borrow loads of money for next to nothing and buy valuable assets. Because there was more money floating around, these firms gathered more assets under management. And they were also able to mark up the assets on their books and sell them at favorable prices.

Just take a look at this chart of Blackstone, the largest private-equity firm, which Steve recommended buying in the November 2012 issue of True Wealth:

Steve's readers are up 146% as of yesterday's close.

 On CNBC, Rubenstein noted that private-equity deals today are "still only about 50% of the dollar volume" from the 2007-2008 period... A sign we could see these shops buy up lots more assets. He noted plenty of financing is still available on attractive terms.

However, Rubenstein noted that it's getting hard to find cheap assets to buy. Just before the crisis, private-equity firms were buying out companies for 9.7 times EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization). Today, we've reached the same multiple (after it bottomed around 6 or 7, he said). He said he has to look harder for deals that will produce 20%-30% rates of return.

We echo Rubenstein's sentiments... You can't argue the market is cheap today – it's trading at all-time highs. But the money is still flowing. And as we've seen time and time again, expensive stocks can always become more expensive.

 New 52-week highs (as of 1/14/14): Altius Minerals (ALS.TO), American Homes 4 Rent (AMH), ProShares Ultra Nasdaq Biotechnology Fund (BIB), PowerShares Chinese Yuan Dim Sum Bond Fund (DSUM), Energy Transfer Equity (ETE), Fluidigm (FLDM), Gladstone Capital (GLAD), Corning (GLW), iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology Fund (IBB), Intel (INTC), Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND), Marvell Technology (MRVL), ONEOK (OKE), Penn Virginia (PVA), Sturm, Ruger (RGR), ProShares Ultra Technology Fund (ROM), RPM International (RPM), ProShares Ultra Health Care Fund (RXL), Sequoia Fund (SEQUX), Constellation Brands (STZ), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), and Virginia Mines (VGQ.TO).

 One subscriber has made huge profits on Amazon... Is it time to sell? Send your feedback to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

 "I bought Amazon at $45 a share a few years back. I think you just told me to sell." – Paid-up subscriber Tony D. Baker

Goldsmith comment: As regular readers know, we are legally prohibited from addressing individual investing questions and offering individual investing advice. However, all we said was that Amazon doesn't justify its outrageous valuation. It's already a $180 billion company. However, as we noted above, expensive stocks can always become more expensive...

Regards,

Sean Goldsmith
Miami Beach, Florida
January 15, 2014

 

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