Singapore's benevolent dictatorship...
Singapore's benevolent dictatorship... Harsh laws... The 'least happy' people in the world... An expensive market... How to become the next Singapore...
Editor's note: As we explained yesterday, the Digest team is working in Washington, D.C. this week. We can't discuss our special project just yet... but when we do, we promise it will be worth the wait.
We continue today with the second half of the February issue of Global Contrarian, in which editor Kim Iskyan wrote about his recent travels to Singapore. In yesterday's Digest, he discussed the city-state's history and explained how it grew to be so wealthy. In today's excerpt, he writes about its military, cost of living, and how a country could follow in Singapore's footsteps...
But Singapore isn't perfect...
To excel in so many areas so fast, Singaporeans have had to give a lot up.
This is how Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Alastair Smith, the authors of The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics, explain it...
"Singapore... has managed through benevolent dictatorship to produce a high quality of material life for its citizens, albeit without many of the freedoms that others hold dear."
As I said earlier, Singapore's government has a "father knows best" policy. The same government party has been running Singapore for the past 50 years. The current prime minister, Lee Hsien Loong, is the son of Lee Kuan Yew. And he's just the third prime minister the country has had since its independence in 1959. The city-state's one-party rule is iron clad, and there isn't much opportunity for real opposition to make itself heard.
In 2013, Lee Kuan Yew said, "I am absolutely sure if Singapore gets a dumb government, we are done for."
You see, as Mesquita and Smith say, Lee Kuan Yew – and his successors – "have used their discretionary power over revenue to institute successful, market-oriented economic reforms that made Singaporeans among the world's wealthiest people." But there's no guarantee Singapore's future leaders will always have its best interests at heart.
And because the government exercises such a high degree of control, many of its citizens' personal freedoms have been sacrificed for the "greater good."
For example, the city-state has a mandatory two-year military service for men. Just less than one in 10 people in Singapore is in the military (whether it's active, reserve, or paramilitary). That's more than any country except Armenia.
Singapore spends more on its military than any other country except the U.S. and Israel.
The government also closely guides the city-state's media. Singapore ranks 150th out of 180 countries in Reporters Without Borders' World Press Freedom index. Anything like the recent pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong wouldn't be allowed in Singapore.
To become one of the safest and cleanest countries in the world, Singapore has also had to put harsh laws in place.
It explicitly prohibits selling chewing gum. And vandalism in Singapore can get you caned. Many Americans likely remember the case of the American teenager in 1994 who was caned after being charged with vandalizing cars with spray paint in Singapore. President Bill Clinton intervened, and the teenager's sentence was reduced from six strokes of the cane to four.
Some drug offenses, including trafficking, can be punishable by death. Being charged with murder can also result in the death penalty.
Perhaps it's because Singaporeans lack some freedoms that, as a whole, they aren't happy. A Gallup poll conducted in 2011 showed that Singaporeans are the "least positive" people in the world (followed by Armenians and Iraqis).
"On the surface, everything works and is good. It's a nice place to live," one Singaporean told me. "But beneath the surface, not everyone is happy."
Another source of tension is that some Singaporeans don't like the increasing number of foreigners in their country. Singapore's economic growth has been fueled in part by foreign workers. As a result, foreigners as a percentage of the population have risen sharply − from 14% in 1990 to just more than a quarter in 2004... and 39% of the population today. Foreigners have accounted for most of the near doubling in the city-state's population over the past 25 years.
But with a birth rate well below replacement level, and a limited pool of those with the expertise needed to drive the city-state's economy, Singapore will have to continue to welcome foreigners if it's going to grow.
One Singaporean I spoke with who is white – there aren't many – told me he has been subjected to anti-foreigner heckling several times in recent years. "It doesn't bother me, but I'm sure it bothers foreigners, and it doesn't look good," he said.
The foreigner issue is complicated by race. Around three-quarters of Singaporeans are of Chinese descent, 13% are Malay (from Malaysia), 9% are Indian, and the rest are from elsewhere. The city-state has four official languages – Mandarin, Malay, Tamil (a major language in southern India), and English. Singapore is also a melting pot of religions, with Buddhism, Christianity, and Muslim the most prominent. One study based on 2010 data found that Singapore is one of the most religiously diverse countries in the world (the U.S. was in the middle of the pack).
Diversity isn't easy to manage in any country. But Singapore has been able to do a good job of it, in part, by creating a sense of national cohesion by ensuring that all Singaporeans learn English. The country's required military service also instills a sense of national identity.
But there are challenges under the surface. "People here have all sorts of issues with one another," one foreigner who has run his own business in Singapore over the past decade told me.
While I was in Singapore, a few taxi drivers didn't hesitate to tell me about the people from other countries they particularly disliked, in unflattering and racially charged terms.
In December 2013, during the first riots in more than 30 years in Singapore, hundreds of foreign workers took to the streets when a bus hit and killed an Indian migrant worker.
Singapore's wealth explosion has also created a class divide. The city-state has one of the highest levels of income inequality among developed countries. As much as 14% of the population lives in poverty.
For the very wealthy, Singapore's prices aren't an issue. For everyone else, though, Singapore is very expensive. A cost of living survey by consulting company Mercer found Singapore was the fourth most-expensive city in the world. A beer will set you back around $12. Private schools that charge $30,000 per year are not unusual. And real estate is stratospheric.
To counter high prices, Singapore has low income taxes, which top out at 20%. But once you factor in things like taxes on cars, tariffs on alcohol, and real estate taxes, it's clear that Singapore's total tax take is much, much higher.
All of these are reasons for people in Singapore to be unhappy. And unhappy people eventually want change.
Over time, the People's Action Party has seen its support fall in parliamentary elections – from 87% of the vote in 1968 to 60% of the vote in the last elections in 2011. The opposition won six out of 87 seats, which isn't much, but it's more than it ever had in the past. In early 2013, the People's Action Party lost a district by election by the widest margin in nearly 30 years.
The irony is that Singaporeans have seen massive change over the past two generations. But young people in Singapore have experienced only prosperity – not the hard climb to get there.
"The spoiled youth are a problem," one longtime resident in Singapore told me. "They're not as diligent as their parents, or as easily satisfied. A something-for-nothing generation may spell trouble, unless they wise up as they age."
And no one knows what will happen when Lee Kuan Yew – the country's guiding light these past 50 years – passes away. Lee Kuan Yew is 91, and he was recently admitted to the hospital for severe pneumonia.
His death may be a reason for Singaporeans to rethink the direction of their country.
But for the time being, things in Singapore are likely to stay the same. And despite its challenges, sentiment toward the city-state remains extremely positive.
The Singapore stock exchange (called the SGX) trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13 – which is far from cheap. Emerging markets overall trade at an average P/E of 12. In short, investors have built in expectations of higher earnings into the market.
That's why we're not investing in a Singaporean stock this month. With such high expectations and sentiment levels, things in Singapore are so good that they can only get worse – or, at best, remain the same.
But it's still important for us to know about Singapore's miraculous transformation. You see, many emerging-market countries are trying to become the next Singapore.
"We can be like Singapore," a banker in Sri Lanka told me a few years ago.
The head of Andhra Pradesh, a state in southeastern India, is trying to create a new capital city that's modeled on Singapore – and it's even getting help from Singapore.
Gaza has also talked about trying to be the next Singapore.
Investors who get into one of these successful transformations early could make massive gains. As I've shown you in these pages before, just a small change for the better can send markets soaring hundreds of percent.
So let's take a look at some of the characteristics a country will need if it wants to attempt to follow in Singapore's footsteps...
The Blueprint to Become the Next Singapore
The success of Singapore is unique in many ways – but there are a lot of critical ingredients to its transformation that, when isolated, are easy to identify. Some of these are...
A visionary leader: Most politicians are focused on the next election cycle and how to advance their own interests before then. Lee Kuan Yew was a rare example of a leader who had the best interests of his country in mind – and had the long-term vision to see it through. If a country has a visionary leader, its chances of becoming the next Singapore increase exponentially.
Democracy is better: The most developed and advanced countries in the world are liberal democracies. Singapore is the sole exception to that rule. The chances that an authoritarian-type ruler advances the causes of the country, rather than his own interests, are slim. So if a country doesn't have the basic fundamentals of democracy, it's probably not the next Singapore.
Put natural resources to productive use: The list of countries with natural resources that have thrived (including the U.S., Canada, and Australia) is much shorter than those that have seen their natural bounties disappear with little to show for it. Singapore didn't have any natural resources, so it had to develop the one resource it did have – its people. A country is only able to develop rapidly if it puts its natural resources to productive use.
Treat money well: Investment will always flow to where it's treated best. Singapore is one of the easiest places to do business in the world. The rules are clear, fair, and uniformly enforced. The infrastructure is world-leading. The financial system is broad and deep. Investors will chase yield, but the place that they feel the most comfortable is where their funds are most welcome.
Tackle corruption: The challenge with rooting out corruption is that the people who would need to get rid of it are usually the same people who benefit the most from it. And if the highest levels of government are corrupt, then everyone else gets the message that it's all right to be corrupt. But for a less-developed country to succeed, it has to limit corruption. Over the long term, investors don't trust a place where the rule of law can be overturned by a bribe to the right person... and while plenty of investors are making lots of money in societies that are deeply corrupt, these economies will always perform a lot worse than those with lower levels of corruption.
Address the differences: Singapore could easily have dissolved into a mass of cultural, ethnic, and linguistic conflict, as happens with many countries that have a dominant group and a number of smaller ethnicities. This kind of conflict will never go away, but it can be limited through smart policy that promotes a sense of cultural identity (like in Singapore, which requires everyone to learn English and calls on all men to serve in the national service).
And limiting these conflicts is key to growth: Societies that are in a state of eternal strife and conflict will usually be too preoccupied to do anything else well.
Every country's situation is different, of course. And the above explanations are massive simplifications – entire books have been written about just small elements of these characteristics. But these criteria are a useful starting point. A lot of countries have none of these characteristics... But some countries have several of them.
For example... the Baltic countries, which used to be part of the Soviet Union but are now in the European Union (EU), are dynamic and fast-growing.
Panama is trying hard to make itself attractive to investors. The former Soviet state of Georgia has made big strides in tackling corruption. Uruguay is a regional magnet of capital.
Meanwhile, Singapore's neighbor, Malaysia, has shown signs of getting its act together. And there are a few success stories in Africa, although they're still works in progress.
I don't know if any of these countries will come close to replicating Singapore's success. But even getting a handful of the right pieces in place can make a huge difference over the long term.
We're not investing in any of these countries today, but I'll be keeping them on my radar in the months ahead.
New 52-week highs (as of 3/12/15): none.
In the mailbag, two subscribers suggest that Warren Buffett is taking currency expert Jim Rickards' advice to buy hard assets. We're listening... Send your thoughts to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Dear Porter, a possible explanation to the apparent change in Warren Buffett's strategy and tactics since 2000, is provided by Jim Rickards. Jim is postulating that Warren Buffett is buying hard assets to position his portfolio to withstand rising and perhaps very significant inflation. Railroads, energy, and even computer hardware. Jim references the previous successful strategy of a German industrialist Hugo Stinnes, who prospered during the Weimar Republic hyperinflation, and hypothesizes that Warren Buffett has borrowed from his experience and success. An interesting thought, isn't it?" – Paid-up subscriber Linda
"Great articles Porter – but before we all assign The Sage of Omaha to the bin of history let's just wait and see. After all, he is doing just as Jim Rickards suggests and is buying assets. He may well have the last laugh. Keep up the good work." – Paid-up subscriber Roy Cooper
Regards,
Kim Iskyan
March 12, 2015
