The Watch That Can Save Your Life
The watch that can save your life... The six stages of new technology... Are you an early adopter?... On the hunt for the next Apple...
Editor's note: Our colleague Dave Lashmet's path to Stansberry Research was unusual. He's a scientist and was not only Porter's college professor, but also one of his first hires when he founded the company back in 1999.
These days, Dave writes our elite Stansberry Venture Technology advisory, which takes a venture capitalist approach to investing, seeking out small-cap tech, biotech, and medical companies that could make early investors a fortune.
His track record to date has been incredible. Since launching his service back in late 2014, nearly one in every four recommendations has gone on to double. "That is an incredible feat for any investment strategy," Porter wrote in the 2017 Report Card, "let alone in one of the toughest sectors in the market."
Today, we've given Porter the day off so Dave can share the details behind the latest technological advancement from consumer-electronics giant Apple (AAPL), which might just save your life...
I (Dave Lashmet) am not trying to sell you a wristwatch... But if that's what happens, don't blame me...
Blame Apple.
On Wednesday, the company showed off its new Apple Watch, with all of its health benefits (which I'll explain in a moment).
For investors, though, the key data at Apple's watch reveal party was the word "millions" – as in, millions of users. Hitting millions of users makes this a runaway hit – which opens the door to billions of users.
After a new technology is invented, it goes through six growth stages...
The first stage is beta testing. This is almost a real-world test, to let potential future customers use your device.
I've run these tests thousands of times. You hope to see a lot more wins than losses, or it's "game over."
For instance, people of every age loved playing the Nintendo Wii video-game system in beta testing. Soon after, the Wii was a smash hit. When grandparents and grandchildren can play together, everyone wins.
Technically, no one can buy the technology during beta testing. It's just the phase where the bloggers and reporters see it.
Maybe that's why Apple doesn't beta test with outsiders. But its employees are like its core customer base. That lets the company surprise and delight paying customers... which is how Apple ends up with huge lines around the block at its stores when it releases its newest device. This is the second stage: when the cultural "innovators" show up to buy and engage with a new gadget.
The third stage happens at almost the same time, when Apple is able to bring in the next tier of tech users, known as the "early adopters."
Stages four, five, and six are the "early majority," the "late majority," and the "laggards," respectively.
My family is in the early majority: We buy great phones a year after launch. If your phone has a broken screen, you're the late majority. And if you still carry a "flip phone," you're a laggard.
When it comes to smart watches, my family has never bought one. Until now, it has been a niche item. I've never had a reason to buy one. But after Wednesday's announcement, I do...
The new Apple Watch could save your life, but not for the reasons Apple listed at its press conference...
The key takeaways from this week's Apple Watch launch were all about boosting your health.
For one, the new Apple Watch has a phone inside. It now comes with a feature called "drop detection" to determine if a person falls. After a minute, it will call for help. That means if you're worried about any senior citizens, the Apple Watch can call a nurse or dial 911. And because its back is made out of ceramic – which will give it a stronger signal – it's likelier to work in an emergency.
The second big innovation is a heart monitor that records your heart's rhythm. This even won approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. The new watch is considered a consumer-grade medical device that records your heartbeat data. Mostly, this is for screening. But an alarm will be built in to check for a low heart rate, which can be deadly.
For most of us, though, the third innovation is the most compelling: The watch will make you exercise more.
Exercise is the key to health. The next-generation Apple Watch will record your steps and even your swimming strokes (it's waterproof up to six feet).
The new watch will even come equipped with a camera, so you can take pictures of your meals to help count calories.
What sealed the deal for me was the GPS chip...
I'm not much of a foodie, a gym rat, or a swimmer. But the new Apple Watch has a phone inside with a memory chip. And that's going to be a game-changer for cyclists like me.
Imagine if I wipe out while I'm on my bike. The device on my wrist will be able to detect that I've tumbled off the side of the road or into a body of water and will call 911 on my behalf. Even in the worst-case scenario, I can rest assured knowing the Apple Watch – with its built-in maps, GPS, and phone features – is keeping a close eye on me.
If you're like me, you haven't used a paper map in years...
Instead, I use the maps app that comes preinstalled on my smartphone.
Apple just announced its smart watch will come with a bigger screen. It also improved the pixel count to about 165,000. (Pixels, or "pixel elements," are colored dots that, when combined, make up an image.)
To put that in perspective, Apple's brand-new iPhone XS Max will have 3 million pixels. But the new watch does have more pixels than Apple's first-generation iPhone from 2007, which had just 150,000 pixels.
Coming into this week, the Apple Watch was at a critical crossroads between a mere curiosity and ubiquitous technology. This week, the company bridged the gap. My early majority family will ease into it. After all, we don't buy fads or high-fashion items. We look for utility first. And the new Apple Watch is seriously useful.
We're not alone in our thinking. I fully expect Apple's smart watch to go on to sell hundreds of millions of units per year. The Apple Watch is more than Dick Tracy could have ever dreamed of. It's not just point-to-point communication anymore. It's also turn-by-turn navigation and a direct line to 911.
Information, safety, and security is an impressive feature list for Apple's newest all-weather tech device.
Kudos to Apple for its latest innovations...
By now, you're probably wondering what this means for Apple as an investment. The trillion-dollar company is a safe bet at today's levels. Still, I seriously doubt Apple shares will double this year based on the Apple Watch or newest iPhones.
But for folks who are interested in betting on smaller companies with bigger upside and the potential to double (or more) in a year, that's where my high-end Stansberry Venture Technology newsletter can help.
And I recently discovered a tiny company with huge upside. This company is responsible for driving the innovation behind the next great technological leap we're about to see. We're in the beginning stages of this trend, which could redefine what it means to "go wireless." I just put together a brand-new presentation explaining everything you need to know... including what it means for investors in the months ahead.
Please note, this is for serious tech investors only. If that's not your thing, I completely understand. For those folks, hopefully today's essay convinced you to buy someone you love the new Apple Watch.
But if making 100%, 200%, or even 500% by investing in small-cap tech stocks sounds up your alley, do yourself a favor and watch my free presentation right here.
New 52-week highs (as of 9/13/18): American Express (AXP), Fidelity Select Medical Technology and Devices Portfolio (FSMEX), Corning (GLW), Ingersoll Rand (IR), iShares U.S. Aerospace and Defense Fund (ITA), Microsoft (MSFT), Match Group (MTCH), ProShares Ultra Health Care Fund (RXL), SPDR S&P Dividend Fund (SDY), T-Mobile (TMUS), Verisign (VRSN), and W.R. Berkley (WRB).
Will you be one of the first people to buy the new Apple Watch? Do you already own one of the first-generation watches? We want to hear from you. Let us know at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
Good investing,
Dave Lashmet
Seattle, Washington
September 14, 2018