This Isn't What a Top Feels Like
Editor's note: Investors are terrified.
October's pullback spooked investors. According to one measure of investor sentiment, small-time investors are more scared today than they were back in the depths of the 2008/2009 financial crisis.
Steve Sjuggerud says that's giving investors an incredible opportunity today...
In today's Masters Series essay – excerpted from the November issue of True Wealth Systems, out last Thursday – Steve explains why this isn't how market peaks feel... and shows what his most trusted indicators are saying today...
This Isn't What a Top Feels Like
By Steve Sjuggerud, editor, True Wealth Systems
Investors were scared like I had never seen before...
Lehman Brothers had just gone bankrupt – the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. Lehman's failure then triggered a domino effect, bringing down insurance giant AIG.
I remember the feeling back then... It felt like the financial world was about to end.
You know what you do when you have that feeling? You BUY STOCKS.
No kidding.
I wrote to my subscribers in March 2009, "I am extremely bullish on stocks, starting now."
In hindsight, it was a perfect call...
The stock market bottomed in March 2009. The benchmark S&P 500 Index fell to the ominous 666 level. Then it took off and has barely looked back...
Today, the S&P 500 is above 2,700. You would have made four times your money if you were bold enough to buy in that moment of extreme despair.
You might think, "We'll never see another opportunity like March 2009."
It's understandable to think that way.
But I have some crazy news for you...
Investors are more fearful today than they were during the depths of the financial crisis in 2009.
I am not kidding.
It is time, once again, to be bold enough to buy in a moment of extreme despair.
In short, the tumultuous market we've seen in the last month is giving us a perfect opportunity.
It's giving us the perfect chance to build our "Melt Up" portfolio for the final push of this bull market.
There's no getting around how tough it's been in U.S. stocks recently. The S&P 500 has entered an official correction – falling 10% recently. Investors are darn scared. In fact, investors haven't been this scared in years. How do I know?
My friend Jason Goepfert runs one of my go-to websites, SentimenTrader.com. He tracks hundreds of sentiment readings to figure out what folks love and hate in the markets at any given time.
According to his proprietary "dumb-money confidence" measure of investor sentiment, small-time investors are more scared today than they were at any time in 2009.
Specifically, this index fell to 24 at its lowest in March 2009... Yet this week, his index just touched 19.
It is shocking to me that investors are this scared today. But they are.
What's important from here is to look at what happens after investors get this scared.
Folks haven't been this scared since January 2016, when Jason's indicator briefly dropped to 17. What happened next was incredible...
In the six months that followed, stocks jumped 18%... Over the next year, they soared 25%... And over the next two years, they jumped an incredible 58%.
In short, investors were record-scared... and stocks absolutely soared. Today, folks are extremely scared again. And we're betting this fear will lead to HUGE gains as the Melt Up pushes forward.
Right now, we have a chance to step up and be bold, just like March 2009 or January 2016.
It won't be easy. It's scary out there. And it's hard to buy when everyone else is scared. But we have a golden chance to do just that right now.
Most folks will miss this opportunity. They won't step up and be bold. They'll worry about the potential for a Melt Down and do nothing.
They're making a huge mistake.
Stocks are going to head much higher in the months to come. And we've been given an incredible opportunity to take advantage of it.
In this weekend's Masters Series, we'll cover the overall health of the market and we'll look at the overall economy and what it says about the chances of a "Melt Down."
A Quick Look at the Health of the Market
As I mentioned earlier, investors are spooked after a rough few weeks in the market.
This "finger on the trigger" reaction isn't what we'd expect to see at the market top. This isn't market euphoria.
Look, you don't see friends and family bragging about getting rich in the markets. You hear from folks who are worried about the next crash. This is certainly not how a market peak feels.
Investors are driven by greed at market peaks. A few rough days in the market would leave folks excited to buy more if this market was approaching a peak.
Sentiment and our five indicators continue to confirm the same thing: We aren't at a peak in this bull market today.
We look at five indicators to keep track of the health of today's bull market.
These indicators flashed early warning signs before the peaks in 2000 and 2007. That's why we're tracking them closely right now... And it's why we know that five "red lights" mean the end is near for the Melt Up.
The red-light part is important. Let's quickly look at how these indicators work...
When an indicator is making new highs alongside the S&P 500, that gives us a "green light" to own U.S. stocks. And multiple green-light signals mean that the market is strong.
We also remain in green-light mode if we're not at new highs but the trend is still up. When we see a major break from a trend, that signals a "yellow light."
Yellow lights tell us that the current trend is down. It means prices are falling, but we aren't seeing major divergence between our indicator and the overall market. That's not ideal, but it's not a huge concern, either. It means we're likely in a correction during the Melt Up.
What we're most worried about are "red lights." These happen when the overall market is making new highs, but an indicator fails to hit new highs, too.
This divergence is a sign of an unhealthy market. We want to see all parts of the market hitting new highs together. When that doesn't happen, it means there's weakness below the surface.
When all indicators are flashing red, that's a major warning sign that we are in a dying bull market. This will be a strong signal that the Melt Down is near.
Today, we only have one red light. It comes from financial stocks, which have been flashing a red light for a couple of months. This weakness has remained isolated to the financial sector. And that's true today.
We do have other recent changes, though... We've seen a few indicators enter downtrends due to recent market volatility. This isn't a major concern. But it does mean we now have yellow lights from our advance/decline line indicator, the transportation sector, U.S. small caps, and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index.
While we will keep an eye on this situation, it's nothing to lose sleep over. We will start to worry if the overall market hits new highs but these indicators don't. That would mean multiple red lights, which would be a big concern. But again, we aren't there yet.
I know this might not be enough hand-holding for some readers. Fear is real out there today. And everyone is worried about a Melt Down. So in tomorrow's essay, I'm going to calm your nerves by taking a look at the U.S. economy.
The math is simple: We won't see a stock market bust until a recession is imminent. And right now, the economy is doing just fine...
Good investing,
Steve Sjuggerud
Editor's note: You can't afford to be on the sidelines during the Melt Up. And Steve couldn't be making it easier for you to participate in this once-in-a-decade run higher... Until Sunday, you can get Steve's fully allocated, brand-new Melt Up Portfolio – along with $8,500 in free extras. Learn more here.
