Ukraine and Russia on the brink of war...

Ukraine and Russia on the brink of war... Kim Iskyan explains what it means for the markets... Buffett still buying stocks despite Ukraine issues... Berkshire Hathaway's latest letter... The highlight of Stansberry Society...

 

 Markets are plummeting today as Ukraine is on the brink of war with Russia...
 
Russian troops reportedly seized control of government buildings in Crimea, a semi-autonomous region of the Ukraine.
 
According to Ukraine's defense minister, Russia is sending more soldiers "every hour." Russian fighter jets have invaded Ukrainian airspace. And more ships are arriving. Russia views Ukraine as a Russian nation... And it's hoping to halt further integration with the European Union.
 
Russia is considering further action if it sees unrest in other Russian-speaking regions in eastern Ukraine.
 
Russian stocks fell nearly 11%. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones are both down nearly 1%.
 
 We asked S&A Global Contrarian editor Kim Iskyan for his thoughts on the situation. Kim responded that the Ukraine situation will have significant implications for businesses and investment in the entire region. "But one issue that I don't think anyone has focused on much is what it does for the prospects for portfolio investors in Russia," Kim said. "In short... it puts them in a bad place, for a long time."
 
As Kim explained... Russia's stock market is one of the cheapest in the world. It trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 5x. That compares with the Indian stock market's average P/E of 13x and Mexico's 15x. The benchmark S&P 500 U.S. stock index is at around 14x.
 
No one can really explain why this discount exists... But most analysts and investors have pointed to a number of factors: Russia's high level of political risk, its economy's heavy dependence on energy exports, corruption, and low levels of corporate transparency. You never really know what Russian companies are really doing... and whether management is stealing your money. As Kim explained...
 
Many investors have thought that all it would take was President Vladimir Putin doing a few things – like, say, cracking down on corruption, creating the right conditions to enable economic diversification away from natural resources, and moving toward a more democratic system of governing – to reduce these concerns... which in turn would shrink the Russian market's discount compared with the rest of the world.
 
This could lead to a big rally in Russian shares... that's what investors in Russia have been waiting for. For years, analysts and investors in Russia have said things aren't that bad... Russian shares don't deserve such a big discount.
 
I was one of those people for a very long time... I made a living weaving that story, as a stock analyst and hedge-fund manager in Russia from the mid-1990s through 2008.
 
Well, I hate to say it... But I think the wait is over. Putin has just proven wrong anyone who held out hope that the discount of Russian shares to the rest of the world might narrow. He just confirmed all the concerns about the high levels of political risk in Russia. If Putin can invade Ukraine, he can do pretty much anything... in any realm of the economy or markets or the government. He has just proven everyone's worst nightmare.
 
 Kim predicts the Russian economy is in for a dark time now. The country's central bank today had to boost interest rates by 1.5% (to 7%) to try to stop the Russia's currency, the ruble, from devaluing... This will cut off growth.
 
Russia's economy was already on the ropes. It grew just 1.3% last year. Direct investors will think twice about dedicating any new funds to Russia. Any economic sanctions on Russia could cripple exports... if Russia's energy exports decrease, the budget could dip into deficit, further pressuring the ruble and hurting economic growth.
 
 Of course, markets often overreact and overcorrect. At some point, Russian shares will become too cheap and a great contrarian buying opportunity will present itself. But Kim says the road ahead for Russian stocks looks rockier than for other emerging markets...
 
 True Wealth editor Steve Sjuggerud is among those contrarians who see opportunity in the Russian market's super-cheap multiples. It's one of several emerging markets where he believes investors will make big gains when things get "less bad."
 
But so far, his Russia position has struggled and is showing a loss... In tomorrow's edition of our e-letter DailyWealth, Steve will address the situation and how subscribers should handle the position. The key shouldn't surprise longtime readers: It's all about removing emotion from the decision and sticking to a plan to keep potential losses small. Look for Steve's essay in your inbox tomorrow...
 
 Billionaire investor Warren Buffett released his latest letter to shareholders of his holding company Berkshire Hathaway over the weekend. As always, it was filled with invaluable investment lessons. We'll get to those in a moment.
 
But first... Buffett appeared on CNBC this morning to chat markets. He said he's buying more stocks with markets down today...
 
"When I got up this morning, I actually looked at a stock on the computer (for) the trades in London (of a stock) that we're buying, and it's down and I felt good," he said on CNBC. "We were buying it on Friday, but it's cheaper this morning and that's good news."
 
 He will "absolutely" buy more. And he'll continue to buy even if the situation in Ukraine worsens...
 
"You're going to invest your money in something over time. The one thing you can be quite sure of is if we went into some kind of very major war, the value of money would go down. That's happened in virtually every war I'm aware of," he said. "The last thing you'd want to do is hold money during a war. You might want to own a farm, you might want to own an apartment house, you might want to own securities. During World War II, the stock market advanced."
 
 Back to Berkshire Hathaway...
 
The company earned a record $19.5 billion in 2013, a 31% year-on-year increase. And Buffett's sitting on $48.2 billion in cash. Berkshire also spent a record $11.1 billion last year... and is looking to spend more...
 
Buffett is still bullish on the U.S. And he thinks the "mother lode of opportunity resides in America..."
 
"I have always considered a 'bet' on ever-rising U.S. prosperity to be very close to a sure thing," he wrote. "Indeed, who has ever benefited during the past 237 years by betting against America?"
 
And it looks like he's considering more investments in the energy sector...
 
 Berkshire holding MidAmerican Energy bought utility NV Energy last year. And Buffett said it "will not be MidAmerican's last major acquisition."
 
 Buffett spent a lot of time telling investors to not worry about price fluctuations and to instead focus on the long-term prospects of a business. He shared examples of a farm and New York City commercial real estate property he purchased and simply held. Despite holding the properties through crises, both are worth far more today than when he bought... And they continue to throw off loads of cash.
 
Here's an excerpt from the letter:
 
It should be an enormous advantage for investors in stocks to have those wildly fluctuating valuations placed on their holdings – and for some investors, it is. After all, if a moody fellow with a farm bordering my property yelled out a price every day to me at which he would either buy my farm or sell me his – and those prices varied widely over short periods of time depending on his mental state – how in the world could I be other than benefited by his erratic behavior? If his daily shout-out was ridiculously low, and I had some spare cash, I would buy his farm. If the number he yelled was absurdly high, I could either sell to him or just go on farming.

 

Owners of stocks, however, too often let the capricious and often irrational behavior of their fellow owners cause them to behave irrationally as well. Because there is so much chatter about markets, the economy, interest rates, price behavior of stocks, etc., some investors believe it is important to listen to pundits – and, worse yet, important to consider acting upon their comments.

Those people who can sit quietly for decades when they own a farm or apartment house too often become frenetic when they are exposed to a stream of stock quotations and accompanying commentators delivering an implied message of "Don't just sit there, do something." For these investors, liquidity is transformed from the unqualified benefit it should be to a curse.

A "flash crash" or some other extreme market fluctuation can't hurt an investor any more than an erratic and mouthy neighbor can hurt my farm investment. Indeed, tumbling markets can be helpful to the true investor if he has cash available when prices get far out of line with values. A climate of fear is your friend when investing; a euphoric world is your enemy.

During the extraordinary financial panic that occurred late in 2008, I never gave a thought to selling my farm or New York real estate, even though a severe recession was clearly brewing. And, if I had owned 100% of a solid business with good long-term prospects, it would have been foolish for me to even consider dumping it. So why would I have sold my stocks that were small participations in wonderful businesses? True, any one of them might eventually disappoint, but as a group they were certain to do well. Could anyone really believe the earth was going to swallow up the incredible productive assets and unlimited human ingenuity existing in America?

 
 Buffett's calls to hold through turmoil seem like a warning... Perhaps Buffett sees turmoil on the horizon. He did warn of further financial problems for governments:
 
Local and state financial problems are accelerating, in large part because public entities promised pensions they couldn't afford. Citizens and public officials typically under-appreciated the gigantic financial tapeworm that was born when promises were made that conflicted with a willingness to fund them. Unfortunately, pension mathematics today remain a mystery to most Americans.
 
 I'd like to end today's Digest by giving kudos to the Stansberry Society team for a fantastic inaugural event.
 
We hosted around 200 people in Miami Beach over the weekend. The event kicked off beneath strung lights on the lawn of the Fontainebleau Hotel. The weather was perfect... We had passed hors d'oeuvres, delicious snacks, and fresh cigars rolled on site.
 
The next day, we gathered at the historic Fillmore Theater in South Beach (and many more watched the event live online from their homes).
 
The highlight for me...
 
There was a collective gasp when Porter announced our mystery keynote speaker... WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange.
 
 Assange joined us via Skype from the Ecuadorian embassy in London. Ecuador has given him political asylum... But he can't leave the embassy. After the introduction, Assange appeared on a giant screen in front of the audience.
 
Porter had a 30-minute conversation with Assange about WikiLeaks, pervasive government spying around the world, Assange's personal situation, and the future of WikiLeaks.
 
 After a long day of wonderful presentations, we had dinner at one of my favorite restaurants on the beach, Prime Italian. We had the entire restaurant for our function. In typical Porter fashion, dinner was over the top: Kobe beef meatballs, crab cakes, bone-in filets... and a glass or two of red wine.
 
 Overall, it was a top-notch gathering. Thanks to everyone who attended and presented.
 
If you missed the event in South Beach, we hope you'll join us for the next Society meeting this May 31st in Dallas. The Dallas meeting is going to be focused on the energy sector... And we've already secured one of the richest and most impressive men in the oil business as our keynote speaker.
 
We've set aside a small allotment of "early bird" tickets to the Dallas event for the special price of $299. But once they sell out, the price goes up.
 
For more details on the event, and how to get this special price, click here...
 
 
 New 52-week highs (as of 2/28/14): Advent Claymore Convertible Securities Fund (AVK), Brazil Resources (BRI.V), Blackstone Group (BX), Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI), Cameco (CCJ), CF Industries (CF), C&J Energy Services (CJES), Carrizo Oil and Gas (CRZO), CVS Caremark (CVS), Diebold (DBD), Denison Mines (DNN), SPDR International Health Care Fund (IRY), Eli Lilly (LLY), Penn Virginia (PVA), ProShares Ultra Technology Fund (ROM), Superior Energy Services (SPN), ProShares Ultra S&P 500 Fund (SSO), Skyworks Solutions (SWKS), Cambria Shareholder Yield Fund (SYLD), Union Pacific (UNP), and United Technologies (UTX).
 
 One subscriber responds to Friday's Digest Premium... send your comments to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
 
 "I read with great interest your comments [in Friday's Digest Premium] about renminbi possibly becoming the global reserve currency... [In] an article from today's [February 28] China Daily... Yves Merch of the [European Central Bank] says the exact same thing. It is now only a matter of time and based on the speech Mr. Merch gave, Porter's timing seems to be closer than anyone realizes." – Paid-up subscriber Gerald Schober
 
Regards,
 
Sean Goldsmith
Miami Beach, Florida
March 3, 2014
 

 

The worst 'beer' I've ever tasted...
 
S&A Global Contrarian editor Kim Iskyan recently returned from Iran... In today's Digest Premium, he discusses some of the cultural themes in the country...
 
To subscribe to Digest Premium and receive a free hardback copy of Jim Rogers' latest book, click here.

 

The worst 'beer' I've ever tasted...

 

 Iran's official name is the Islamic Republic of Iran... and like I (Kim) mentioned last Monday, the lack of Western influences is one of the first things you notice in Tehran.
 
The entire country is dry... the closest thing you'll find to beer is a "malt beverage" that comes in apple, lemon, or melon flavor... The can or bottle looks like beer. The liquid looks like beer. And it fizzes like beer... but Iranian "beer" was one of the most repulsive things I've ever put in my mouth.
 
"Don't drink alcohol in Iran," someone on the plane over here warned me. "It's dangerous if you're caught... and you don't know where it comes from or where it was made." She told me about a wedding party in Iran not long ago that was disrupted because dozens of guests fell seriously ill from bad beer... so I stayed on the wagon while was there.
 
 Iran takes its alcohol laws seriously. Drinking isn't the sort of thing that is indulged with a wink and a nod... Ask hotel reception and you'll get a cold stare.
 
As a result, an underappreciated competitive advantage of Iran (and much of the rest of the Muslim world, for that matter) is that it suffers only a tiny fraction of the health costs and loss in productivity related to alcohol use and abuse that other countries accept.
 
 Of course, you can find real alcohol if you want. Markets are resourceful, regardless of culture or country. Someone told me that a lot of it is smuggled in from Iraq. Go to the right party, and you'll find it.
 
Similarly... people have found a way to work around the government's censorship efforts. Iran blocks many Web services popular in the West, like Facebook and Twitter... And I was blocked from reading a New York Times article on Ukraine while I was there. The censor picks up words and images that are deemed inappropriate.
 
But technology is an unstoppable force. To see what the government doesn't want them to see, people in Iran use virtual private networks (VPNs). These allow Internet users to disguise where they're geographically situated... and let them cruise the web without government interference. And they're all over in Iran.
 
 If, or when, the West lifts its economic sanctions on Iran, some of cultural and social conservatism may slowly change. The conservatives and liberals in Iran have been fighting it out behind the scenes for years. (Imagine the struggle in the U.S. between the Tea Party and the Democrats... then multiply it by a thousand.)
 
But Iran is an old country. And one of the first things you learn when you arrive is that Iranians are fiercely protective of their culture... and their culture is "Persian," not Arabian. The Persian language and culture and history are completely different. "We always laugh when Arabs call the Persian Gulf the 'Arabic Gulf,'" a young commercial lawyer named Nadrid said about the body of water that separates Iran from Saudi Arabia.
 
Whatever happens, Iran will follow a different path... which one it chooses will be one of the defining storylines of the next decade.
 
– Kim Iskyan

 

The worst 'beer' I've ever tasted...
 
S&A Global Contrarian editor Kim Iskyan recently returned from Iran... In today's Digest Premium, he discusses some of the cultural themes in the country...
 
To continue reading, scroll down or click here.

 

 

 

Stansberry & Associates Top 10 Open Recommendations
(Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all S&A portfolios)

 

 

As of 02/28/2014

 

 

Stock Symbol Buy Date Return Publication Editor
Prestige Brands PBH 05/13/09 357.3% Extreme Value Ferris
Constellation Brands STZ 06/02/11 281.5% Extreme Value Ferris
Enterprise EPD 10/15/08 265.4% The 12% Letter Dyson
Ultra Health Care RXL 03/17/11 252.2% True Wealth Sjuggerud
Ultra Nasdaq Biotech BIB 12/05/12 242.7% True Wealth Sys Sjuggerud
Fluidigm FLDM 08/04/11 220.0% Phase 1 Curzio
Ultra Health Care RXL 01/04/12 207.7% True Wealth Sys Sjuggerud
Fission Uranium FCU-V 04/30/13 193.8% Phase 1 Curzio
Hershey HSY 12/06/07 182.9% SIA Stansberry
McDonald's MCD 11/28/06 170.3% The 12% Letter Dyson
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any S&A publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.

 

 

 

Top 10 Totals
2 Extreme Value Ferris
2 The 12% Letter Dyson
1 True Wealth Sjuggerud
2 True Wealth Sys Sjuggerud
2 Phase 1 Curzio
1 SIA Stansberry

 

 

 

Stansberry & Associates Hall of Fame
(Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all S&A portfolios)

 

 

Investment Sym Holding Period Gain Publication Editor
Seabridge Gold SA 4 years, 73 days 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud
Rite Aid 8.5% bond   4 years, 356 days 773% True Income Williams
ATAC Resources ATC 313 days 597% Phase 1 Badiali
JDS Uniphase JDSU 1 year, 266 days 592% SIA Stansberry
Silver Wheaton SLW 1 year, 185 days 345% Resource Rpt Badiali
Jinshan Gold Mines JIN 290 days 339% Resource Rpt Badiali
Medis Tech MDTL 4 years, 110 days 333% Diligence Ferris
ID Biomedical IDBE 5 years, 38 days 331% Diligence Lashmet
Northern Dynasty NAK 1 year, 343 days 322% Resource Rpt Badiali
Texas Instr. TXN 270 days 301% SIA Stansberry

 

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