What You Missed at Last Night's 'Big Trade' Event
An exciting night at Stansberry Research... What you missed at last night's 'Big Trade' event... Your second chance to attend... The mailbag is overwhelming... P.J. O'Rourke: The bottom line on Trump and the market...
Thank you to everyone who joined us for Porter's "Big Trade" webinar last night...
It was among the largest events in Stansberry Research history... And if early feedback is any indication (some of which you'll see in today's mailbag below), it was easily the most popular we've ever held.
In addition, we're happy to report that despite the larger-than-expected audience, we avoided any major technical difficulties. Only a handful of folks reported problems accessing the presentation.
If you were one of them – or you weren't able to join us for other reasons – don't worry. You can view a full replay of last night's event right here.
We aren't surprised so many folks decided to join us last night...
If you've been with us for long, you know Porter has made some incredible calls over his career.
But we've never seen him so confident – or so bullish – about any single investment opportunity as he about his "Big Trade." And if you've been reading the Digest, you know why...
As Porter explained in detail over the last several days, an epic debt default cycle is not only inevitable... the latest data suggest it has already begun. This means big losses for most investors are now assured.
And yet despite these massive and unavoidable problems, the cost of portfolio "insurance" – via equity put options – is still nearly as cheap as ever.
It's this historic divergence that makes the Big Trade such an incredible opportunity. As Porter explained in last Friday's Digest...
The real key to understanding this opportunity is to realize the profound dichotomy between how much financial risk U.S. corporations currently have on their balance sheets (the most ever) and how little risk is being priced into the equity market today (among the least ever).
It's this shocking "spread" between the real and obvious financial risks we face and the nearly record-low volatility in the stock market that the Big Trade is set up to exploit.
In simple terms, it's as if your neighbor's house is on fire, and he's offering to sell you his homeowner's policy at a discount. The Big Trade is an opportunity that simply shouldn't exist in a rational market. And you're unlikely to ever see anything like it again in your lifetime.
Of course, none of this is news to regular Digest readers. But if you weren't able to join us last night, you could be in for a surprise...
Last night's webinar was notable for another reason...
For the first time ever, Porter shared the full details on the strategy behind our new service, absolutely free of charge.
To be clear, the full list of the worst corporate credits – what Porter has dubbed "The Dirty Thirty" – is reserved exclusively for Stansberry's Big Trade subscribers. But folks who attended last night walked away with virtually everything they need to know to profit from this opportunity...
They learned the six key sectors that are most likely to be affected by rising defaults... how to choose appropriate options contracts... the best times to buy and sell... how to take advantage of swings in volatility... and much more.
In other words, everyone who joined us learned how to make 10-20 times their money in the coming crisis, even if they decided not to sign up for our new service.
Why would Porter do this? Why would he give away a strategy he and his research team have spent literally thousands of hours developing? It's simple...
We urge every subscriber to join Stansberry's Big Trade. This service will be invaluable for maximizing your profits and avoiding pitfalls as the default cycle ramps up.
But we also realize not everyone is in a position to subscribe today... So we wanted to ensure all interested readers are armed with the basic tools to protect themselves as this crisis unfolds.
And of course, there's a selfish reason, too... As Porter noted last night, if you're not yet wealthy, you will likely never see a better opportunity to make truly life-changing profits in your lifetime. And while it will likely upset some folks, the fact is, wealthier readers make much better customers.
Your second chance to join us...
Again, if you missed last night's webinar, it's not too late. We've prepared a full video replay to help you take advantage of this opportunity for yourself. But if you're interested, please don't delay...
As Porter explained last night, we simply don't know how much longer this situation will last. Volatility remains near historic lows today, but it is trending higher. It's only a matter of time until it spikes higher, and options become much more expensive. If you wait, you may not be able to get into these trades.
Click here now to view a full replay of last night's webinar.
New 52-week highs (as of 11/16/16): CONE Midstream Partners (CNNX), WisdomTree SmallCap Dividend Fund (DES), Freddie Mac (FMCC), Fannie Mae (FNMA), short position in Hertz Global (HTZ), iShares Core S&P Small-Cap Fund (IJR), PowerShares S&P 500 BuyWrite Portfolio Fund (PBP), and Gibraltar Industries (ROCK).
The mailbag is overflowing with feedback on last night's Big Trade webinar. What did you think? Please let us know at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. And be sure to continue on after the mailbag for a new piece from bestselling author and Digest contributing editor P.J. O'Rourke.
"Porter, I am so excited about the Big Trade. Thanks for doing this... Tonight's presentation was one of the best I've heard. You did a perfect job of explaining what's inevitably going to happen, and I love your tips about taking profits when the VIX tops 25. I am completely amped and ready to get started trading. I think you and your team do wonderful work and I feel fortunate have access to it! Thanks!" – Paid-up subscriber Justin Sherrod
"Porter, this was one of the most informative presentations you've offered since I became a subscriber and I want to commend you for taking the time to go into great detail about the subject that you've been promoting since the credit default cycle began. I've been following your daily and weekly reports so I knew what to expect... Keep the good news coming." – Paid-up subscriber David G.
"Porter: I really enjoyed the presentation – I loved it!... I just want to congratulate you, Porter, I understood everything... Thanks again!" – Paid-up subscriber Anne C.
"Thanks Porter and Jared. Your webinar was fascinating. I was able to keep up with you most of the time. You did an incredible job of explaining a very complex situation. Your enthusiasm for this opportunity is infectious. It is fascinating to see how all of this has come together – thanks for connecting the dots. I never would have been aware of this opportunity without your insight. It really is kind of mind-numbing. Thanks for sharing this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity... " – Paid-up subscriber Chelle D.
"Fabulous webinar on BIG TRADE tonight... I am an Alliance member and have been with you for years. I love you! I have never traded options but with you holding my hand, I am eager to follow your BIG TRADE advice!" – Paid-up Alliance member Robert G.
"Dear Porter, Great presentation with very interesting content. Made me appreciate how much analytical work goes on behind the scenes, and it presented Stansberry Research in a very positive light. The Dirty 30 is out of my price range and experience, but it looks like it will make some very good returns for those who get involved. Thank you for presenting this opportunity." – Paid-up subscriber Graham Sellars
"Porter, that was an excellent webinar! It all made perfect sense! As a Stansberry Flex member, I had instant access to the first two Stansberry's Big Trade recommendations published tonight. I logged in to my IRA account and placed the two trades before you had even stopped speaking. One of the questions asked was if this could be traded in an IRA and I can vouch that YES it can! I am confident that the Big Trade newsletter is going to be one of my favorites!" – Paid-up Stansberry Flex member Roy P.
"Porter, I have never written in to you before. I have been a reader of The Stansberry Digest every day for nearly two years now. Being that I am only 20 years young and a hard-working kid currently paying his way through college, I wanted to let you know how much I appreciate your work... It is very interesting, insightful and at times, humorous (this previous week of Digests has been particularly humorous but even more helpful.)
"I learned a lot tonight listening to the webinar on The BIG Trade. It covered a large array of issues and questions that I had... While, sadly, I do not think I will be able to afford to subscribe, I am definitely confident I will be able to participate in some of the trades using your strategy thanks to tonight's presentation.
"Once again, I would like to extend my sincerest gratitude for all of your hard work. I have learned so much over the past two years from simply reading The Digest. The quality of research you offer for free is incredible. Believe me, as soon as I can afford to purchase some subscriptions from your company and invest at the same time, you will have a longtime subscriber on your hands. As of right now, I am simply testing the waters... Best of luck." – Paid-up subscriber Trevor F.
"Hi Mr. Stansberry, just wanted you to know how much I enjoyed your webinar this evening... I am unable to purchase your product at this time as I am waiting to close on a new home and have been warned not to spend any money until closing. In spite of that, I wanted you to know how much I appreciated the research you have done and the warnings you gave. I'm ashamed to admit that my knowledge of most financial issues is woefully inadequate and realizing that fact concerns me greatly. I see that my retirement plans are probably at risk more than I knew. Thanks for sounding these warnings and for a wonderfully informative webinar." – Paid-up subscriber John N.
"Porter, the 'seesaw' analogy for trading between Big Trade put recommendations and Credit Opportunities bonds is absolutely brilliant. Besides the fun of playing the Wall Street casino, the investment knowledge your organization has provided is just superb. My initial Big Trade orders are in and all my bonds are performing well. I look forward to the even better opportunities as the default cycle progresses next year. Thanks for the expertise." – Paid-up subscriber Dave Embry
"Hey team. I loved the BIG TRADE webinar just now... I found you guys filtering through a newsletter... that had a link to your presentation on Fords over blown debt. It was presented in a clear and simple way that really struck a chord of confidence. I'm in my 40s and trying to grow the wealth I've worked hard to build and I'm hoping that you will be a great mentor and guide of sorts through your team's research and guidance..." – Paid-up subscriber Idrissa M.
"I've read your 1st issue and I like the presentation quite well. Both recommendation(s) and strategy are laid out nicely. It's simple to understand, and reasonable to think a novice can follow what you are presenting. As an investor who started my 'learning' with options, your methods are better than those I have experienced in the past. I'm confident that Stansberry's Big Trade is going to be an exceptional, successful, and popular newsletter." – Paid-up Stansberry Alliance member Charles M.
"Porter, I missed the first half of the webinar tonight, and now it's ending. How and where can I watch it again?" – Paid-up Stansberry Alliance member Barbara D.
Brill comment: No worries, Barbara. As we noted earlier, you can view a full replay of last night's webinar right here.
Regards,
Justin Brill
Baltimore, Maryland
November 17, 2016
The Trump Trend: Up, Down, or Sideways?
Is America going to get a "Trump Bump"? Or is our country headed for the "Trump Dump"? Will Donald Trump be a good president? Will Donald Trump be a bad president?
One person who has almost no control over the answers to these questions is... Donald Trump.
Porter says "politics don't matter." I protest. I'm a political commentator. If politics don't matter, that makes me chief pig herder in Mecca.
I protest what Porter says... But I don't disagree.
America is shaped by trends that are much larger than a presidency. Who the president of the United States is at any given moment matters less than what pundits and media mavens think.
The president may be ignorant or smart, foolish or cunning (and Trump is all four of those things), but the big trends continue to march inexorably along their trajectory.
Thomas Jefferson is rightly considered one of America's most brilliant presidents. And his Louisiana Purchase is rightly considered a brilliant diplomatic stroke. It added an 828,000-square-mile territory to the United States at the cost (in 2016 dollars) of $0.42 an acre.
But consider the trends of 1803. America's population was increasing rapidly. The people needed more land to settle. French military power in North America was diminishing to the point of being laughable. "Louisiana" would have become part of America anyway, at a cost of $0.00 per acre... and sooner, not later.
The same is true for the rest of America's "Manifest Destiny." James K. Polk is a little-remembered American president. His 1846 war against Mexico was opposed by America's elite thinkers, including Henry David Thoreau, former president John Quincy Adams, and then-congressman Abraham Lincoln.
But America was growing not only in population, but in economic strength and vision. Mexico was collapsing into chaos. Nothing that Thoreau, Adams, or Lincoln could have done – or that Polk could have not done – would have kept Texas, the Far West, and California out of American hands.
Keeping the region out of American hands would have impossible after 1849, when America's economic strength got a vision of the California gold rush.
Speaking of Lincoln, we see him as America's greatest president. And he was great, but so was the occasion of his greatness.
Slavery had always been incompatible with American ideals. By the middle of the 19th century, abhorrence at its practice had become an irresistible force. The North was going to fight the South. And the North had all the big trends in population, manufacturing, and moral decency on its side. The North was going to win. And the victory would make somebody look great.
Good leadership can help foster good trends. But trends – good or bad – don't necessarily need leaders. The last third of the 19th century was one of the most rapid periods of economic growth in U.S. history. Per-capita gross domestic product doubled. But consider the men who held the office of chief executive during this amazing business boom: Ulysses S. Grant, Rutherford B. Hayes, James A. Garfield, Chester A. Arthur, Grover Cleveland, Benjamin Harrison, and William McKinley. They were a mixture of incompetents and nonentities.
Franklin D. Roosevelt is hailed for having taken action against the Great Depression and fighting the Axis powers. But what choice did he have?
When the country is in the midst of a disaster, the president has to at least look like he's doing something. (Take note, George W. Bush... in case you ever have to be president again during a Hurricane Katrina.) But in fact, strong evidence suggests that most of what FDR did about the Depression was busywork, and his policies may have prolonged the economic slump.
Then the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor. Was FDR just going to sit around smoking cigarettes and petting his dog Fala?
World War II was won in large part due to trends that were beyond FDR's control. Mostly, it was won by trends in idiocy – Hitler's moronic invasion of Russia and Tojo's nitwit incomprehension of America's material might.
Liberals argue that Trump was swept into office by a trend in idiocy. I don't know about that. What would you call the trend if it had swept Hillary into office?
Actually, no one was "swept into office." In the most hotly contested presidential election in living memory, voter turnout was only about 58%. This trend has been going on for a while. Voter turnout in presidential elections fell below 60% in 1972 and has never recovered. I call it the "Porter Trend." Approximately 97 million Americans who were eligible to vote decided it doesn't matter who's president.
Now that's a trend every president should take into account.
What other big trends will President Trump need to cope with? I'll get back to that question. But not until I write my Thanksgiving "Things to Be Thankful For" column. It will begin with giving thanks that this election is over.
Regards,
P.J. O'Rourke