What's Coming in 2020?
What's coming in 2020?... Porter, Steve, and Doc make their predictions... Who will win the presidential election?... The health care debate continues... About last night... Keep an eye on these stocks...
In case you missed last night's big event...
No, not the Democratic debate... though we'll get to that in today's Digest, too.
I (Corey McLaughlin) am talking about the special, live event with our "big three" – Stansberry Research founder Porter Stansberry, True Wealth editor Dr. Steve Sjuggerud, and Retirement Millionaire editor Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig. They sat down last night to share their respective outlooks for 2020...
And there wasn't much "fear" in the discussion.
During the event, Porter acknowledged that he can't say exactly when a recession might hit, but he warned that there's "no sense in pulling money out" of a red-hot market right now. Steve and Doc sounded similar tunes.
At the same time, Porter reminded viewers that this doesn't mean you shouldn't be prepared for the inevitable... meaning the consequences of seemingly endless "easy money" policies from the Federal Reserve and other global central banks.
"You cannot print prosperity," Porter said. "The asset bubble that we have has been generated by actions of central banks around the world. Eventually the piper will be paid, but until then, stocks are going to go up... Make hay while the sun shines."
He noted that he'll be closely watching for labor and wage inflation later in the year – due to a lack of fiscal discipline and shortages of qualified labor. That could tip the U.S. economy into recession... but not in 2020, he said.
Porter also repeated a suggestion – a plea, really – for viewers to take control of their own finances in 2020... and the group suggested the smart moves you can make to prepare your portfolio today.
If you read yesterday's Digest, that outlook should sound familiar…
Stansberry NewsWire editor C. Scott Garliss wrote that central bank easy-money policies should continue to add rocket fuel to the markets in the coming months. But at the same time, a number of reliable harbingers suggest a slowdown could be approaching.
Last night, Porter, Steve, and Doc also shared their top stock picks for this year, as well as a few other predictions...
It was a wide-ranging discussion with a lot of detail – from thoughts about gold... to an update on Steve's "Melt Up" thesis... to guidance on how much bitcoin you should own, if any.
But perhaps most notably and most timely – given the Democratic debates happening at the same time – Porter said he believes President Donald Trump will win November's presidential election "in a landslide"... He added: "When's the last time an incumbent president lost during a strong economy? It just doesn't happen."
If there's any other election outcome, Porter said volatility would increase... particularly if extreme left-wingers Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren manage to get into the Oval Office.
If you weren't able to watch last night's event live, you're in luck... For the next few days, you can watch a full replay of the event right here.
Speaking of Sanders and Warren...
And, no, not the post-debate exchange.
In a stroke of luck – given its implications on our economy and the markets – the Democratic debate organizers waited until Porter, Steve, and Doc were finishing their talk to begin asking the six presidential candidates on stage in Iowa about a topic we've covered here before...
We're talking about health care reform.
Last night, most notably, Sanders was again all-in on "Medicare for All"... But he didn't give a direct answer when asked by his competition how he planned the country to pay for it.
Warren talked more about cutting prescription drug costs and taxing the top 1% and giant corporations.
Former Vice President Joe Biden suggested a so-called "public option" and to rebuild Obamacare... as did Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who said that two-thirds of Democrats in the Senate don't support Sanders or Warren's Medicare for All proposals...
Stansberry Research editor Thomas Carroll, who has 18 years of experience analyzing the health care industry, wrote a must-read Digest on this subject in November... It's one of the first things we thought about as we listened to the Democratic candidates last night.
From Medicare for All... to a public option... to "who would pay for it all?"... health care reform – which has been debated for more than 100 years – is arguably the top issue in the Democratic primary. And it will likely be an important issue in the general election as well.
As Thomas wrote in the November 21 Digest, the continued debate around what to do about our broken health care system will continue to move certain stocks... much like it did more than a decade ago when the Affordable Care Act ("ACA," better known as Obamacare) was being proposed...
Back in November, as Thomas wrote, Warren's stance on "Medicare for All" was already softening... since she couldn't detail how exactly the country would pay for the plans.
And as a result, major health care stocks like UnitedHealth (UNH) and Anthem (ANTM) reacted quickly and positively to the development. When we checked in with Thomas in the office earlier today, he said little has changed since his November essay and looked ahead at what's next...
Healthcare reform proposals will remain relatively high level, and static until the Democratic field gets whittled down. At that point, further details could emerge.
Simultaneously, a plan from the current administration would add to the discussion. Each would represent a different end of the spectrum – from far left to far right – with many options in between.
Regardless, the U.S. health system is at a tipping point where actual costs need to become the focal point. Up to now, reform efforts have focused on insurance coverage and not the underlying costs that go into that coverage. The emerging discussion will focus on hospital costs, drug costs, and long-term care.
Thomas had previously expected that the reversal in Medicare for All trading would continue...
Specifically, back in November, he said "we believe health care service stocks could rise further into year end." He presented several price targets on the major health care stocks...
Two of these stocks – Tenet Healthcare (THC) and Universal Health Services (UHS) – already hit Thomas' targets, and the rest are all on their way higher... After last night's debate, UnitedHealth was up nearly 3% today, while Anthem and Centene (CNC) each jumped roughly 2%.
We'll continue to track the health care story in the Digest in the weeks and months ahead. And we'll be sure to let you know how it could affect your portfolio – in 2020 and beyond.
New 52-week highs (as of 1/14/20): American Express (AXP), Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), iShares Select Dividend Fund (DVY), New Oriental Education & Technology (EDU), Equinox Gold (EQX), iShares U.S. Home Construction Fund (ITB), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Leagold Mining (LMCNF), Nuveen Municipal Value Fund (NUV), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Invesco High Yield Equity Dividend Achievers Fund (PEY), ResMed (RMD), Splunk (SPLK), TAL Education (TAL), and Aqua America (WTR).
In today's mailbag, feedback on my colleague C. Scott Garliss' Digest from yesterday about a pair of "recession indicators"... Have a comment or question? E-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Good article. Causation does not equal correlation, however. Those waiting another 14 months to bail out will be bailing out far lower. Wish you the best in 2020 and far beyond!"
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
January 15, 2020