Where to find yield today...

 

Stansberry & Associates Hall of Fame
(Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all S&A portfolios)

 

Investment Sym Holding Period Gain Publication Editor
Seabridge Gold SA 4 years, 73 days 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud
ATAC Resources ATC 313 days 597% Phase 1 Badiali
JDS Uniphase JDSU 1 year, 266 days 592% SIA Stansberry
Silver Wheaton SLW 1 year, 185 days 345% Resource Rpt Badiali
Jinshan Gold Mines JIN 290 days 339% Resource Rpt Badiali
Medis Tech MDTL 4 years, 110 days 333% Diligence Ferris
ID Biomedical IDBE 5 years, 38 days 331% Diligence Lashmet
Northern Dynasty NAK 1 year, 343 days 322% Resource Rpt Badiali
Texas Instr. TXN 270 days 301% SIA Stansberry
MS63 Saint-Gaudens   5 years, 242 days 273% True Wealth Sjuggerud

Why I'm not selling any stocks short right now…

 

The market is at all-time highs... And many equities sport outrageous valuations...

Despite this, S&A Editor in Chief Brian Hunt isn't selling anything short today. He explains why in today's Digest Premium.

To subscribe to Digest Premium and receive a free hardback copy of Jim Rogers' latest book, click here.

Where to find yield today... This bond sector may be the most attractive... Doc's latest thoughts on municipal bonds... Intel's big jump... How a WDDG will make you rich... Spain's GDP grows at its fastest pace in nearly six years... Stocks up or dollars down?...

 The most recent cover of the well-regarded financial magazine Barron's is all about income...

After all, in a world of soaring asset prices and negative real interest rates (when the pace of inflation is greater than the risk-free yield), people are concerned about income.

They're making nothing in their bank accounts... Most bond yields are unattractive (and people are scared of rising interest rates)... And while some stocks still offer solid yields, the markets are trading at record highs.

 Barron's said one particular sector of the bond market, one we've covered many times in these pages, "may be the most attractive" – municipal bonds...
 

After a weak 2013, tax-exempt bonds may be the most attractive area of the bond market. Top-grade 10-year munis yield 2.5% or more, while long-term issues yield 4.5% to 5%, more than the 30-year Treasury, now at 3.8%. Persistent outflows from mutual funds weighed on the market during the second half of 2013, but that could change in 2014, particularly if stocks struggle. Demand for munis from banks and insurance companies has helped absorb selling from mutual funds, and that trend could continue.

 Regular readers know that our Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig has long been bullish on municipal bonds. These bonds, issued by state and local governments to raise funds for anything from roads to government buildings, pay a tax-exempt yield. But they were whacked last year from the panic surrounding Detroit's bankruptcy... and Puerto Rico's likely default on its $70 billion of debt.

Muni bonds also sold off with general bond-market fears about the Federal Reserve "tapering" its bond buying and rising interest rates.

 Throughout the entire selloff, Doc told his readers those fears were overblown. Consider this... Over the past 40 years, investment-grade muni bonds have defaulted just 0.017% of the time, according to Forbes. That's less than two times out of every 10,000.

As you can see in the chart of Nuveen Municipal Opportunity Fund (NIO) – an exchange-traded fund that specializes in muni bonds – the general market didn't share his outlook...

 In addition to our readers and Barron's, some big institutional money is noticing muni bonds. More and more hedge funds are entering the muni-bond sector (which has traditionally been dominated by individual investors). And Jeffrey Gundlach, founder of bond giant Doubleline Capital, recently told Barron's he likes muni bonds because some funds are trading for less than the value of their holdings and offering solid yields.

 Doc updated readers on his views of the muni-bond market in the December 2013 issue of his newest advisory, Income Intelligence:

"Munis" are falling out of favor with investors, who have pulled billions of dollars out of them. According to research firm Lipper, individual investors withdrew $1.9 billion from muni-bond funds last week... bringing this year's total funds withdrawn to $57.5 billion.

Since the start of 2011, households and nonprofits have pulled $234 billion out of muni bonds, according to data from the Federal Reserve. That leaves them holding $1.6 trillion of muni bonds, the lowest figure since 2006.

Money has flowed out of muni-bond funds for 29 consecutive weeks, just one week shy of the record set in 2000. (That year, muni bonds went on to return 20%.)

 The fears that drove the selloff were overblown, Doc advised. Two factors made munis a great opportunity, he said...

First, investors are leaving munis because they fear that state and local governments are in trouble. But they aren't. While Detroit (in bankruptcy) and Puerto Rico (close to it) scare investors, the truth is that in general, states and cities are financially improving.

Across the country, tax receipts are growing while spending remains flat. Over the last year, state and local government combined revenues grew 3.5%, while expenditures only rose 1.3%. And 14 states outpaced their projected revenues.

Of course, state and local governments still have room for improvement... but we're moving farther away from default risks, not closer.

The second reason for muni-bond outflows is a fear of rising interest rates. Remember... if interest rates rise, fixed-income investments like bonds generally fall.

We think munis can handle a rise in interest rates just fine, especially if you have a portfolio (or closed-end fund) with a diversified mix of maturities.

 Doc told subscribers that he doesn't see interest rates headed much higher in the near future. A big jump in interest rates would coincide with big economic growth and significant inflation. He said…

That just isn't happening. There are signs of recovery... but the economy isn't fully there yet.

As for inflation, it looks like we're farther from seeing prices rise than we were earlier this year. Consider U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (or "TIPS"). These are essentially a form of insurance against inflation. Over the year, TIPS have fallen nearly 9%... the largest one-year drop in history. Smart investors clearly don't feel the need to buy inflation protection today.

Doc's top municipal-bond recommendation is trading at a discount of more than 8.5% to the value of its holdings. And it's yielding a taxable-equivalent 10%.

 If you're curious where you can collect the highest income – across all asset classes – in the market today, you must read Doc's Income Intelligence.

In Income Intelligence, Doc analyzes and recommends securities from six different income-producing asset classes. It's important to collect income from multiple sources because each of these asset classes reacts differently to various market factors.

For example, inflation pushes bond prices down (bond payments are fixed, so higher market rates mean lower prices for existing bonds). But dividend-paying blue chips are one of the best ways to fight inflation... A company like Coke can raise its prices faster than inflation. And in many cases, these companies also increase their dividend payments at a faster rate than inflation.

 And in Income Intelligence, Doc has developed a simple set of strategies he calls "trading for income," which precisely time when you should be in the various income-producing assets. His timing strategies can mean tens of thousands of dollars of extra profit in your portfolio each year.

If you're ready to build a more robust income-producing portfolio, click here to learn more about Income Intelligence...

 World Dominating Dividend Grower Intel (INTC) is one of our favorite dividend-paying blue chips. And shares of the global chipmaker are up nearly 3.5% today after analysts from investment banks Jefferies and JPMorgan upgraded the stock.

Jeffries analyst Mark Lipacis said he believes Intel's processors could be 50% cheaper than its competitors' in a year, allowing the company to gain market share... And he says the company's gross margins are bottoming. Intel is his top large-cap stock pick today.

Christopher Danely from JPMorgan upgraded the stock because he believes the PC market – which has declined as smartphones and tablets gain popularity – will "remain relatively stable" this year.

 In the September issue of The 12% Letter, editor Dan Ferris told readers why he wasn't worried about the decline of PCs:

Intel's primary market is declining. It has delayed entry into the mobile-computing and phone markets. It's not using much more than half of its very expensive manufacturing capacity. And yet... Intel is still capable of generating a 58%-plus gross profit margin. Compare that with Taiwan Semiconductor... which generates less than a 50% gross margin... and Taiwan-based UMC Corp, which earns just a 19% gross margin.

Intel more than doubled its annual capital spending from $5 billion two years ago to more than $11 billion last year. Its sales are down the last six quarters. So it's spent a lot more in recent years and finds itself earning less today. Free cash flow was over $11 billion two years ago. It fell below $8 billion last year. Don't focus on the $3 billion in cash flow that isn't there. Intel still generates $7.9 billion in free cash flow. That's way more than enough to cover its $4.5 billion in annual dividend payments. So there's no risk Intel will cut its dividend. This is one of the safest dividends in the world.

Even with PC shipments crashing and excess capacity sitting idle, Intel is still one of the most profitable, cash-gushing companies in the world. And it's one of the safest dividend-payers around. In the second quarter of 2013, with sales and profits falling, Intel earned more net profit than all but 18 non-financial S&P 500 companies. And the second quarter was one of its worst performances in years.

 He also explained how you can compound your returns by buying and holding shares of Intel... The company has raised its quarterly dividend from $0.05 per share in 1993 to $0.225 today. When you adjust for stock splits... that's a compound annual growth rate of 22.6% over 21 years...

Intel yields 3.8% when trading at $24 per share. If you invest in Intel at that price and it raises its dividend at just 10% a year, you'll soon find yourself earning much more than 3.8% over your original cost...

Within three years, you'll be earning a 5% yield over today's share price. You'll be earning 6% over today's share price in five years... and 9.8% within 10 years. Wait another 10 years after that, and you'll be earning an astounding 25.2% over your original cost. Maybe the dividend won't grow that fast for that long. But even if it grew half as fast, you'd still be earning one-tenth the current share price per year within 20 years.

 In yesterday's Digest, we discussed what's happening in the Spanish economy. We asked Stansberry International co-editor Brett Aitken, who lives in Barcelona, for his opinions on the market.

In short, Brett said things are improving... Sentiment is up and borrowing costs are down. Spanish stocks, as measured by the iShares Spain Fund, hit a two-year high this week.

 And today, Spain announced its gross domestic product (GDP) grew in the fourth quarter at its fastest pace in almost six years. Spanish GDP rose 0.03% in the three months ended December, up from 0.01% in the previous quarter.

"For the first time since the start of the crisis, we are in a different scenario," said Luis de Guindos, Spain's economy minister.

 For more on Spain's improving economy (and a bit about a stock Brett believes will benefit), read yesterday's Digest.

 New 52-week highs (as of 1/13/14): Altius Minerals (ALS.TO), PowerShares Chinese Yuan Dim Sum Bond Fund (DSUM), Energy Transfer Equity (ETE), Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Sturm, Ruger (RGR), Constellation Brands (STZ), and Virginia Mines (VGQ.TO).

 In today's mailbag, comments about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's "bridgegate" and a question on what's driving stock prices higher. Send your questions and comments to feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

 "I have been at odds with the [Governor Christie] at times, but I listened to his conference with the media on Jan. 10. I totally believe him and will give him every chance he needs to continue to work for the good of America. Besides that, my opinion about the media to be total liberal idiots, have been confirmed once again. Does God hear our cries for America or what???

"If I did not believe all the advice I received from Stansberry since I joined in 2006 or earlier (I could not believe the predictions at first), about the road America was embarking on, I would not own today: a foreign bank account, a home paid off in a foreign country, where I now live, since two years ago, when we retired, own silver and gold, received the best cancer treatment at the age of 76 for my husband (the time to die, according to the new health law). My husband is well, they caught everything in perfect timing, which would not be the case under the new law.

"I do not trade anymore, do not need it anymore, we are financially very comfortable, which was not always the case. But I keep my Alliance subscription, for sentimental reasons; and of course checking on the guys that they continue to treat people the way they have done for me so successfully.

"Thank you all for the excellence and integrity in what you do. PS. this might sound very strange, but Christie often reminds me of Porter, controversial/contrarian, brazenly honest, cocky, hard-working and doing whatever it takes to get there. Even Porter apologized when he screwed up, and that my friends, is amazing." – Paid-up subscriber Paula Zina

 "Your 1/10/14 Digest: The other side of your argument, not that I do not disagree with your analysis. Might it be the dollar's value is falling, not that stock prices are rising. For example, I have visited countries where as soon as a citizen of the country that is printing fiat money get their paycheck they go buy a tangible asset; bricks, sand, cement, rebar, a window, food, etc. They do not save cash or bank deposits because they will not buy as much tomorrow.

"I travelled in Turkey in the 1990s, one day I traded U.S. currency for Turkish Lira at a travel agency, $800 U.S dollars got me 100,000 lira, one week later, another $800 U.S dollars got me $160,000 lira. Hyperinflation for printing so much money. They explained that did not save the Lira, they spent it immediately to get hard goods.

I think that is a possible explanation why people are buying a piece of company (stocks), the company represents hard assets (real estate, equipment, etc.) and earnings, holding cash (other than real silver and gold coins) will buy less tomorrow." – Paid-up subscriber Lee Hawthorne

Goldsmith comment: Yes, exactly... The Fed's policies, which debase our currency, are meant to drive people from dollars into riskier assets.

Regards,

Sean Goldsmith
Miami Beach, Florida
January 14, 2014

Why I'm not selling any stocks short right now…

 Some traders are selling companies short to hedge their portfolios right now (in particular, stocks with absurd valuations). Short-selling, as we've described before, is essentially a trade that profits when a security falls in price. The idea of using short-selling as a hedge is that in a broad market decline, the gains from your short positions would offset the losses you take on the stocks you own (your so-called "long" positions).

 But because the stock market's primary trend is so clearly up, I (Brian Hunt) personally would not sell short right now. Expensive stocks can always get more expensive.

 But for those who are interested in making bearish bets or shorting… you can find some absolutely stupid valuations out there – like 3D Systems (DDD), the 3D-printing company we discussed in yesterday's Digest.

 Also, Internet retailer Amazon (AMZN) is trading at a high multiple to its cash flow. Amazon is a fantastic company. It's the most dominant retailer on the Internet. But it's vulnerable to a correction. It has more than doubled over the past few years.

Porter shared his thoughts on Amazon in the January 10 Digest.

 Social networking company Twitter (TWTR) is another stock with an absurd valuation.

 If you have the time and expertise, short-selling some of these names could work out. But I think for most folks, simply avoiding these high-priced, risky names is the best idea.

It's hard to make money shorting when the Federal Reserve has the money pumps on at full blast... and when the primary trend is up. It's not impossible. But it is out of the area of expertise of most people.

– Brian Hunt

Why I'm not selling any stocks short right now…

The market is at all-time highs... And many equities sport outrageous valuations...

Despite this, S&A Editor in Chief Brian Hunt isn't selling anything short today. He explains why in today's Digest Premium.

To continue reading, scroll down or click here.

 

 

Stansberry & Associates Top 10 Open Recommendations
(Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all S&A portfolios)

As of 01/13/2014

 

 

Stock Symbol Buy Date Return Publication Editor
Rite Aid 8.5% 767754BU7 02/06/09 674.3% True Income Williams
Prestige Brands PBH 05/13/09 431.8% Extreme Value Ferris
Constellation Brands STZ 06/02/11 276.9% Extreme Value Ferris
Enterprise EPD 10/15/08 247.3% The 12% Letter Dyson
Ultra Health Care RXL 03/17/11 216.6% True Wealth Sjuggerud
Altria MO 11/19/08 181.9% The 12% Letter Dyson
Fluidigm FLDM 08/04/11 177.5% Phase 1 Curzio
Ultra Health Care RXL 01/04/12 176.5% True Wealth Sys Sjuggerud
Ultra Nasdaq Biotech BIB 12/05/12 175.4% True Wealth Sys Sjuggerud
GenMark Diagnostics GNMK 08/04/11 174.4% Phase 1 Curzio

Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any S&A publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.

 

 

Top 10 Totals
1 True Income Williams
2 Extreme Value Ferris
2 The 12% Letter Dyson
1 True Wealth Sjuggerud
2 Phase 1 Curzio
2 True Wealth Sys Sjuggerud
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