Yes, You Should Be Buying Today

Editor's note: Don't let the doom-and-gloom headlines prevent you from profiting...

Between rampant inflation, geopolitical conflict, and the banking crisis, many investors are reluctant to put their money to work in this chaotic market. But according to Joel Litman – founder of our corporate affiliate Altimetry – you can profit from this turbulent market... if you know where to look.

That's why Joel says it's critical for investors to keep in mind that the pain we're experiencing right now can't stop us from uncovering great opportunities.    

In today's Masters Series, adapted from the May 10 issue of the free Altimetry Daily Authority e-letter, Joel compares today's bear market with the chaos seen during the Great Recession... discusses a silver lining that's looming amid this ongoing turmoil... and details how investors can take advantage of this unique setup...  


Yes, You Should Be Buying Today

By Joel Litman, chief investment strategist, Altimetry

The "smart money" wanted stocks to sell short...

Yet we saw amazing buying opportunities ahead.

In April 2009, investors were still reeling from the Great Recession. At Valens Research – our institutional arm, which powers Altimetry – our clients expected more companies to fail. They wanted to bet against those stocks.

They had good reason to be afraid. That March, the S&P 500 Index had fallen to its lowest level since the mid-'90s. There were few indications that the storm would abate. All signs pointed to a continued freefall.

Folks were still worried that their banks had toxic mortgage assets on their balance sheets. Credit markets still weren't fully functioning, and the effects of the credit seizure were widespread.

In short, everything was a mess... and anyone in their right mind would have been looking for short ideas. It wasn't exactly revolutionary to bet that more stocks would collapse.

As I'll explain today, our clients were too focused on the pessimism that pervaded the market. They ran the risk of missing some fantastic opportunities... and all they had to do was look in the right places. The current market environment reminds us a lot of what happened back then.

Opportunities abound... if you do your due diligence.

Investors who were watching the Great Recession unfold had good reason to be pessimistic.

U.S. companies were in a rough place. Average corporate high-yield credit default swaps ("CDS") were well above 1,500 basis points ("bps")... meaning it cost investors 15% per year to protect their credit investments.

When a company's CDS levels get above 1,000 bps, we typically use that as a proxy for the market's view of risk. It tends to signal investors are pricing in bankruptcy.

Even worse, net income for the S&P 500 was negative for the first time ever. And U.S. consumers hadn't even begun to repair their personal balance sheets.

And the list went on... The cost of servicing household debt as a percentage of disposable income remained high. Credit-card, mortgage, and auto-loan delinquency rates were still rising. So was unemployment.

We can't blame our institutional clients for expecting the worst. What they failed to consider was this...

Even in the worst market crisis, there's always a silver lining.

In the midst of all this bad news, we got to work. And we found opportunities hidden all across the market.

When we dove into the Uniform Accounting data and used a disciplined investment process, it was surprisingly difficult to find stocks that were poised to fall. That was true despite the bleak environment. The worst news had already been priced in.

For example, any company with any semblance of credit risk was trading as if the apocalypse had hit. Their prices suggested that even smart, well-run companies with little or no debt would never recover.

All that bad news was precisely the reason for an incredible, looming opportunity.

Given how cheap everything was trading, we saw strategic acquirers as a great bet. These companies would be able to buy small competitors at a huge discount, improve their operations, and become stronger as a result.

That's just what happened with Middleby (MIDD). The company sells machines for restaurant kitchens. Think industrial-grade ventilation systems, deep fryers, and dishwashers.

We included Middleby in a presentation for our institutional clients in April 2009. The company made more than 50 acquisitions in the decade following the Great Recession... and its stock soared more than 1,100%.

In other words, a perfect confluence of trends made for a great discount. It was also a perfect profit setup for investors who could correctly identify those trends.

We're seeing a similar pocket of buying opportunities today...

Of course, every market environment is different. So investors are once again wondering if this is the right time to buy... or if they should hunker down until the volatility subsides.

Regular readers know that we're certainly not "pounding the table" on everything. We've sounded the alarm on areas like Software as a Service, the last remnants of the at-home revolution, and nearly anything that has to do with real estate.

Credit is tightening. Some companies are starting to have debt issues. And other market signals are flashing red.

It's good for investors to be wary but you can still uncover great opportunities...

Regards,

Joel Litman


Editor's note: Now isn't the time to start loading up on cheap stocks indiscriminately. All the same, there are buying opportunities in specific pockets of the market. You just have to look for them... and do some careful research.

That's why Joel recently hosted an online presentation to talk about a critical moment in the market that's approaching – one that will send some stocks soaring... while crushing others by up to 90%. Plus, he shared the name and ticker of a specific stock you need to avoid right now. Click here to watch the full replay...

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