100,000 deaths; Why trying to achieve herd immunity is a bad idea; Five charts showing U.S. reopening; Hertz; Recovery Investing Event this Thursday
1) Today, the U.S. will pass a grim milestone: more than 100,000 deaths from COVID-19. This article puts that number in perspective:
The historical comparisons are breathtaking. More Americans have died of the coronavirus in the last 12 weeks than died in the Vietnam and Korean Wars combined and nearly twice as many as died of battle wounds during World War I.
The death toll has nearly matched the number of people killed by the initial blasts of the world's first atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In terms of American deaths, it is the equivalent of 22 Iraq wars, 33 Sept. 11 attacks, 41 Afghanistan wars, 42 Pearl Harbors or 25,000 Benghazis.
2) Despite this toll, some are calling for a complete lifting of all restrictions so we can quickly achieve herd immunity. It's a seductive argument – but totally wrong in my opinion.
Even places that have paid a huge price (New York City, northern Italy, areas of Spain) are nowhere near herd immunity – with less than 20% of their populations showing antibodies – so I can't even begin to imagine what a bloodbath it would be if we tried to infect as many people as possible, as quickly as possible. In this scenario, I don't think we could protect the elderly and vulnerable.
And people are recommending doing this after we've paid a huge price to contain the virus?
Rather than declaring defeat, at precisely the time when we're close to victory, I think our models should be countries that have pretty much won like China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Israel. They crushed the virus in a smart way – with widespread testing, contact tracing, mask wearing, and border controls – which has allowed their economies to mostly reopen.
This is what we're trying to do right now, and I think it's the right strategy. The question is whether our people and our government are up to the task. I sure hope so...
I know a lot of folks think our government (at all levels) is too incompetent and our people are too fractured, untrusting, and misinformed for us to succeed... but I'm cautiously optimistic.
(If you would like to be added to my coronavirus e-mail list, simply send a blank e-mail to: cv-subscribe@mailer.kasecapital.com).
3) The New York Times' Dealbook has five charts that show how the U.S. is slowly reopening:
People are moving again, as measured by requests for directions from Apple Maps.
Air travel is picking up, although it remains far below its peak.
Some trips include hotels, as occupancy rates are improving.
People are dining out, cautiously.
Big-ticket purchases like houses are picking up.
4) Whenever an iconic company fails, it's worth studying how and why it happened, so I recommend reading these two articles about Hertz Global (HTZ): a story of poor leadership, misguided strategy, an overpriced acquisition, accounting shenanigans, and too much debt...
- Hertz Was Already in Terrible Shape. The Pandemic Finished It Off, WSJ
- What Hertz Had Under the Hood Wasn't Pretty, Bloomberg
5) This Thursday, at 8 p.m. Eastern time, I'm participating in the Recovery Investing Event – it's a free online webinar.
I'll be joining a special featured guest, who will explain how he knew when to sell his stocks ahead of the recent market crash.
Not only will you walk away with a clear picture of what to expect from the market in the coming months... But you'll also learn a unique strategy of determining the exact day to buy back into all of your favorite stocks.
I'll explain the exact steps you should take to reenter the market as safely as possible... Including one stock that should be No. 1 on your "buy" list right now. Just for showing up, you'll get the name and ticker symbol for free.
The event is completely free to attend, but you must reserve a seat in advance. You can do so right here.
Best regards,
Whitney