Average Americans are doing better the past three years; 'It's kinda crazy nothing has broken yet'; Ackman predicts long-term rates are going higher; Interview with Howard Buffett; Mission critical: meet the medics saving lives on Ukraine's front line
1) In Tuesday's e-mail I wrote about how well we're doing via-a-vis economic growth and inflation, which triggered a few readers to push back – saying that it was only the super-wealthy who were doing well.
While that has indeed been largely true since roughly the early 1970s, average folks have been doing a lot better over the past three years, as this chart shows:
2) I agree with this sentiment that, in light of the unprecedented speed that interest rates have risen, "It's kinda crazy nothing has broken yet":
That said, earlier this year I'm sure shareholders of many banks, especially Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, and Signature Bank (all zeros), would dispute the statement that "nothing has broken yet"... but from a big-picture perspective, it's true.
Had you told me two years ago that interest rates would do what they've done, I would have confidently predicted far more turmoil in the markets than we've seen...
3) My college buddy Bill Ackman of Pershing Square Capital posted this on X last night, explaining why he thinks long-term rates are going high – specifically that "5.5% is an appropriate yield for 30-year Treasurys."
I don't have a strong opinion about Bill's forecast...
But if he's right, it doesn't necessarily mean that stocks will tumble. They have held up well as the rate on the 30-year U.S. Treasury has gone from 1% to 4.5%, so I'm not convinced that another percentage point rise will result in calamity...
4) Speaking of Bill, a journalist for Rolling Stone UK wrote this story, Mission critical: meet the medics saving lives on Ukraine's front line, about his trip delivering one of the 15 brand new four-wheel-drive Toyota Land Cruiser ambulances that Bill's Pershing Square Foundation (on whose board I sit) donated to Ukraine. They're operated by a wonderful charity, MOAS, founded by American Chris Catrambone, which transports wounded Ukrainian soldiers and saves lives every day. Excerpt:
The ambulance is similarly brawny: a Toyota Land Cruiser with a treatment bay that's almost tall enough to stand up in, massive chunky tires, bullbars, winch, raised ride height, and uprated shock absorbers. Its off-road ability is unmatched: if the Ghostbusters entered the Dakar Rally, this is what Ecto-1 might look like. Inside, it has a sturdy manual stretcher, monitor defibrillator, ventilator, syringe pumps, suction unit, and enough plasters and bandages to go to war. It's a brand-new vehicle, a 4.5L V8 J70-model designed in the 80s.
Long since discontinued in the European Union, it is still built largely for the African market where its mighty diesel emissions are acceptable. With all the medical kit included, it cost MOAS's private donors £90,000. They've bought 15 of these, bringing their total number of ambulances to 50...
I see the implications of this conflict up close the next day, when I visit one of the country's top hospitals in the city of Dnipro. This hospital only treats the most serious "red" casualties, and since the war started, 21,000 victims have passed through its doors. I'm told 90% of the injuries are caused by shrapnel.
Dr. Sergii Ryshenko, the head doctor, tells me they've managed to save 96%. He credits MOAS's professionalism in assisting with that – stabilizing the patients 10-20 miles behind the front line, undertaking temporary surgery, and then transporting them to a proper hospital like this one. Sometimes that drive can take up to four hours. Helicopters aren't an option, due to the risk of being shot down. MOAS has been tasked with 80% of Ukraine's red casualties. Astonishingly, they haven't lost a patient yet on their watch. Not one...
I sit down with MOAS's founder, the garrulous Catrambone. He's put £790,000 of his own money into this effort, and he's raised an additional £15 million from private donors. It's costing £865,000 a month to run this operation. The staff are all Ukrainian, patriotic, and committed; there are no volunteers. Catrambone didn't want adrenalin-junkie war tourists. He pays top dollar to get the best, and his strategy is working.
Since the war started, Catrambone has only been out of Ukraine for four weeks. "You exhaust every effort you can, both in the field and raising money. If you fail, people die. A lot of these humanitarian organizations try to do what they know, replicating it in different places without modifying the process, and it becomes ineffective and a waste of money. For me, it's very simple: where's the problem? Let's go to it and start making the impact. And that, crazily, is disruptive."
Most aid outfits are afraid to pick a side in a war, he explains. "At the beginning, people were like: 'We can't help a soldier.' Well, they're the ones dying. You've got to care for human lives, regardless of whether or not they're wearing a uniform. By the time we see them, they're not carrying a gun."
Catrambone made his money insuring U.S. military contractors and providing emergency medical assistance in hostile places. He's used to war zones, but this war is different. "The injuries are unlike anything we've seen before," he says. "This is a major war featuring two sides with modern weaponry. In Iraq and Afghanistan, people were being injured by mortar attacks, IED blasts, suicide bombers. They were quite targeted. Here, it's a different enemy. They're throwing everything they have at each other, and they have similar weaponry and similar mindsets in terms of how they fight"...
Catrambone and his 150 medics are carrying the can. That Land Cruiser I drove over is already saving lives, lots of them, before I even get out of the country. I understand where the indomitable will of its people now comes from – Ukraine is a beautiful country and it must remain free. Sergii is right: there will be no surrender.
Here's a picture of me back in February in the first of 27 ambulances my friends and I have donated to MOAS (for details, see my February 17 e-mail):
Best regards,
Whitney
P.S. I welcome your feedback at WTDfeedback@empirefinancialresearch.com.