Berna Barshay's daily e-mail launches today; Huge declines in COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in NYC; Deaths have plateaued and may be declining nationally; Lockdowns are ending; We need to be smart, strategic, and targeted
1) As I wrote in Friday's e-mail, I've been so impressed with my new colleague Berna Barshay's experience and insights that I've asked her to create a new daily newsletter, which is launching this afternoon.
It will arrive after the market close every weekday, and you'll automatically receive it. Nothing will change regarding my newsletter, other than the name – going forward, it will simply be Whitney Tilson's Daily (Berna's newsletter will assume the name Empire Financial Daily).
Just as I do already, Berna will, in 100% her own voice, comment on the most important and relevant topics of the day – including stocks she's looking at, articles of interest, and updates on upcoming events. And she too will try to be provocative and let her personality shine, so I know you'll enjoy her thinking and writing as much as I do!
2) New York City is the global epicenter of the coronavirus crisis, so it's especially important that the trends here are really good. According to the NYC Department of Health, which publishes and updates data daily:
- Cases are down 52% in 16 days,
- Hospitalizations are down 81% in 15 days, and
- Deaths are down 71% in 16 days
Here are the charts for all three:
(Note that I've excluded the most recent two to three days because more recent data aren't accurate – it takes a few days for the complete numbers to come in.)
3) Nationwide, COVID-19 deaths have plateaued around 2,000 per day for the past 18 days until yesterday:
Let's hope yesterday's decline to "only" 1,157 deaths is the start of a downward trend. (Sundays appear to be lower than other days... But even so, here are the last three Sundays: 1,727, 1,570, and 1,157 – a very favorable trend.)
4) Though we haven't yet beaten the coronavirus, there's a growing perception that we have it under control (let's hope!), so many states are beginning to ease up on their lockdowns in an attempt to start getting back to normal.
We clearly must move in this direction, but we need to be smart, strategic, and targeted. One-size-fits-all is not the answer here.
Along those lines, I agree with this op-ed by Bret Stephens in Saturday's New York Times: America Shouldn't Have to Play by New York Rules. Excerpt:
Consider a thought experiment in which metropolitan New York weren't just its own state, but its own country. What would the crisis for what remained of America look like, then? In this slightly smaller nation of a little more than 300 million people, the death toll would amount to about 7.5 per 100,000, slightly above Germany's levels.
No wonder so much of America has dwindling sympathy with the idea of prolonging lockdown conditions much further. The curves are flattening; hospital systems haven't come close to being overwhelmed; Americans have adapted to new etiquettes of social distancing. Many of the worst COVID outbreaks outside New York (such as at Chicago's Cook County Jail or the Smithfield Foods processing plant in Sioux Falls, S.D.) have specific causes that can be addressed without population-wide lockdowns.
Yet Americans are being told they must still play by New York rules – with all the hardships they entail – despite having neither New York's living conditions nor New York's health outcomes. This is bad medicine, misguided public policy, and horrible politics...
Right now, there's a lot of commentary coming from talking heads (many of them in New York) about the danger of lifting lockdowns in places like Tennessee. Perhaps the commentary needs to move in the opposite direction. Tennesseeans are within their rights to return to a semblance of normal life while demanding longer restrictions on New Yorkers.
I write this from New York, so it's an argument against my personal interest. But I don't see why people living in a Nashville suburb should not be allowed to return to their jobs because people like me choose to live, travel, and work in urban sardine cans.
Gina Raimondo, the Rhode Island governor, was on to something when, a few weeks ago, she wanted to quarantine drivers arriving from New York. The rest of America needs to get back to life. We New Yorkers prefer our own company, anyway.
5) But we must be careful not to repeat what happened a century ago: San Francisco had the 1918 flu under control. And then it lifted the restrictions. Excerpt:
When the clock struck noon, the masks came off.
It was Nov. 21, 1918, and San Francisco residents gathered in the streets to celebrate not only the recent end of World War I and the Allies' victory, but also the end of an onerous ordinance that shut down the city and required all residents and visitors to wear face coverings in public to stop the spread of the so-called Spanish flu.
A blaring whistle alerted gratified residents across the city and, as the San Francisco Chronicle reported at the time, "the sidewalks and runnels were strewn with the relics of a torturous month," despite warnings from the health department to maintain face coverings. As celebrations continued and residents flocked to theaters, restaurants, and other public spaces soon thereafter, city officials would soon learn their problems were far from over.
Now, amid the coronavirus pandemic, as President Donald Trump urges the reopening of the country and some states, such as Georgia, move to resume normal business even as new cases emerge, how officials acted during the 1918 flu pandemic, specifically in cities such as San Francisco, offers a cautionary tale about the dangers of doing so too soon.
To repeat, we need to be smart, strategic, and targeted. I wish I had more confidence that we will be...
Best regards,
Whitney