Interview with Scott Galloway; Bank Stocks May Shortly Make New Highs; Two million doses administered on Saturday; My parents just got vaccinated in New Hampshire; I volunteered at a vaccination center in the South Bronx; Florida vaccination tips
1) Longtime readers know that I'm a huge fan of NYU marketing professor, bestselling author, blogger, and entrepreneur Scott Galloway, so it was a true pleasure being the guest on his podcast last week.
Here's a link to listen to our conversation – the part where he interviews me begins at 16:54. Over 30 minutes, we discussed:
- GameStop (GME)
- Is it a sign of a general market bubble? My answer: No... My best guess is that we're six to 12 months from a top
- Transportation as a Service ("TaaS") and my favorite stocks to play it
- Tesla (TSLA)
- What to invest in today? My answer: the S&P 500 Index, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Twitter (TWTR)
- How a young person should build a career in the investment industry
P.S. I wrote about Scott's predictions for 2021 here... his views on the importance of getting vaccinated here... and his books, The Four: The Hidden DNA of Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google, and The Algebra of Happiness: Notes on the Pursuit of Success, Love, and Meaning here.
2) My friend Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners and I have been bullish on bank stocks for many months (I most recently wrote about our views in my December 22 e-mail). Here's his latest missive:
Bank Stocks May Shortly Make New Highs
* And Citigroup is my "Trade of the Week"
Bank stocks quickly rose from October to January but faltered a bit right after fourth-quarter releases – which were generally in-line to better than expectations.
Tactically I sold off from very large to medium-sized my four major bank holdings into the January strength and then hedged all my bank holdings by shorting (XLF).
Shortly thereafter I covered XLF on the anticipated -10% sector weakness and then reloaded to very large-sized again at considerably lower prices than where I sold.
I now believe several factors suggest bank stocks will continue the recent strength in 2021:
- Interest rates are rising – and net interest income and margins will expand dramatically, in part, reflecting the remarkable year-over-year low-cost bank industry deposit gains.
- The domestic economy should experience a vigorous second half recovery.
- Capital markets activity is robust and improving.
- Near-record loan loss provisioning in 2020 may be reversed over the next 12-18 months – with reversals likely.
- A generally favorable capital allocation backdrop – for accelerated share buybacks and dividend increases. Share repurchase activity will rise in the next few quarters – at current prices, they are EPS accretive. Meanwhile, dividends and dividend yields are rising.
- Bank valuations, against many other market sectors whose valuations and equities have been embraced, remain low.
Citigroup (C) ($62.58) is my Trade of the Week.
3) Here's great news: On Saturday, the U.S. had its first day of more than 2 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine administered (source)!
4) My parents, who have retired in Kenya, flew back to the U.S. to get vaccinated last week.
After 44 hours of travel, they arrived late Thursday night in New Hampshire (where they're officially taxpayers and voters). I drove up from New York and am spending the week with them at our extended family's house on Lake Sunapee.
They received their first shot of the Moderna (MRNA) vaccine on Saturday at a vaccination center in the parking lot of a community college in Claremont. It was staffed by roughly two dozen Army and Air Force National Guard members, who were well-organized and efficient. It was a drive-thru, so my parents never even had to get out of their car.
Here's my video of them getting their shots (they've had no side effects whatsoever!), and here are two pictures (I've posted additional ones on Facebook here):
There was initially a problem scheduling the second shot, which is supposed to take place 28 days after the first one (and no later than 42 days). But when my parents went to the CDC's appointment website, the earliest slot for the second shot wasn't until March 27 – seven weeks away (no wonder New Hampshire is abandoning it)!
One of the staff, however, said to call 211 the next day (and keep calling every day) because additional capacity was being added regularly. Sure enough, on their first call yesterday, my parents got an appointment on March 5, which is perfect!
5) On Thursday, I volunteered for 12 hours at a vaccination center in the South Bronx.
It's run by the New York City Department of Health and is in a public school building that's currently closed – here's a picture of me in front of it:
My job as a "flow monitor" was to greet people lining up outside for their appointments. I checked them in using the iPad, verified that they qualified for the vaccine (age 65-plus or had a certain job – the most common were restaurant worker or taxi driver), and asked them some questions like "Are you feeling sick today?" and "Have you ever had an allergic reaction to a shot or vaccine?"
Then, I sent folks into the building and they received the shot in the cafeteria:
Immediately after receiving the shot, they went to the gym, where other flow monitors booked an appointment for them to come back in 28 days for their second shot.
Lastly, they sat for 15 minutes to make sure they didn't have an allergic reaction to the shot (nobody did), and then they were free to go. The entire process was very smooth and took less than an hour – we were a well-oiled machine!
In part, however, this was due to the center only having 480 appointments scheduled over the course of eight hours – one person per minute. We could have vaccinated twice the number of people, so I asked the supervisor why we weren't doing so.
He said it was because there weren't enough vaccines. Sure enough, I received an e-mail over the weekend that the center is closed today, tomorrow, and Wednesday for this reason. (The guy I spoke with at the New Hampshire center also said they didn't have enough vaccines.)
Hopefully increased production by Pfizer (PFE) and Moderna, as well as the new vaccines by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Novavax (NVAX), and Oxford/AstraZeneca (AZN), will soon alleviate this problem! Just this morning, former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb told CNBC that the combination of increased production and many people (unfortunately) choosing not to be vaccinated means:
We're going to run out of demand sooner than we think. At some point in March and certainly by the end of March we're going to have to make this generally available ... everyone is going to be able to go online and get an appointment sooner than we think.
Overall, what I saw at the centers themselves made me proud of my country. The computer systems to make appointments, in contrast, made me ashamed – what a mess!
6) Speaking of which, here's what my friend Tracey e-mailed me this morning about her experience getting her parents vaccinated in Florida:
Signing up to get an appointment is really difficult. Governor DeSantis decided that Publix supermarkets would get to administer nearly all vaccines. (There has been media coverage of the fact that the head of Publix gave a large contribution to the Governor's super PAC, but I digress... Vaccines at Publix is the situation at the moment...)
The website opens for sign-ups at 6 a.m. on Mondays and Wednesdays. Many people have complained of getting up early, trying to sign up, and not getting anywhere on the website. Or, if they finally are able to sign up for an appointment, by the time they enter all their info, the appointment is gone.
But I've discovered another way to do it. Go to a Publix late in the day, around 7:30 p.m., and ask the receptionist at the vaccine desk if there have been any no-shows. These people have discretion, so be polite and happy! As I told my father, "Be the nicest version of yourself."
If you're lucky, there have been no-shows, in which case you might be able to get the shot right then. And even if not, you might get some valuable intel that you would not have found out online, such as where and when you'll have a better chance.
Important: If the receptionist at one Publix tells you they never have no-shows, keep going to other locations. Five tries in three days is the success story I heard. There are a lot of Publix locations, and for many age 65-plus people, it's probably a lot easier to drive around checking on availability than it is to get up before 6 a.m. and fight with a website.
Two key points:
- They are checking to make sure you are a Florida resident; and
- They ask for your Medicare number. If you don't have it, go first to Medicare.gov or you might have to call.
Lastly, a wonderful thing coming out of this pandemic is the amazing number of Americans who have volunteered to help others, and it's happening with vaccine appointment sign-ups in Florida. Here's an article with tips from the volunteers helping people: Having trouble getting a vaccine appointment? Here are 10 tips from people who've gotten through.
Thank you, Tracey!
Best regards,
Whitney