Kim Iskyan on Brexit; Stephen Schwarzman's new book; Sex Trafficking via Facebook; Reason No. 3 why getting rich increases your odds of divorce
1) My friend Kim Iskyan, a Stansberry Research analyst who lives in Singapore and specializes in global markets, sent me these interesting thoughts on Brexit:
With impeachment proceedings, Ukrainegate, a former mayor of New York (take your pick), and the Democratic primaries sucking up all the air in the room, it's easy to forget about what's happening across the pond with what has historically been the closest ally of the U.S. As it happens, the United Kingdom is caught up in its home-grown political histrionics that – like in the U.S. – crowd out pretty much everything else.
I was in London on October 31, the day when the U.K. was supposed to leave the European Union. Of course, instead, Brexit was rescheduled – again – and Halloween was Non-Brexit Day. January 31 is the new deadline... if you're keeping track at home, this is the fourth drop-dead date.
Given that history, the new deadline has about as much credibility as former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi's "You cross this line, you die!" threats memorialized by comedian Robin Williams in 1985 (fast forward to 0:35 if you're squeamish about off-color language). Conservative Party Prime Minister Boris Johnson said earlier in October that he would "rather be dead in a ditch" than delay Brexit past late October... he has a few months to come up with a new gun-to-his-own-head threat.
Whether Brexit happens may be a lot clearer following parliamentary elections next week. Johnson called for the vote because a deeply divided Parliament hasn't given him – as was the case for his bumbling, tone-deaf predecessor, Theresa May – the go-ahead for Brexit. He's hoping that voters will give him the electoral mandate to move ahead with Brexit, which is the centerpiece of his party's platform (its tagline is "Get Brexit Done, Unleash Britain's Potential").
Voters who want to stay in the EU don't have much of a choice between the two major parties. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn refuses to commit on whether he's in favor of Brexit, instead backing a re-run of the infamous June 2016 referendum that plunged the U.K. into what has become an existential crisis.
At least as bad, Corbyn is a genuine, bona-fide socialist who wants to nationalize the mail service, broadband, railways, and other public services. He aims to boost corporate taxes by more than a third. He wants to "confiscate about £300 billion of shares in 7,000 large companies and hand them to workers in one of the biggest state raids on the private sector to take place in a western democracy," explains the Financial Times. The Labour Party is "not a credible government in waiting," the FT said in September.
But the 48% of the electorate that chose to remain in the EU don't have a home, except in the Liberal Democrats Party – which in two-party Britain is treated like a fringe outsider. It wasn't even granted a spot on the stage for a recent televised debate.
The latest polls show Johnson's Conservative Party with a healthy lead. But the recent history of polling (the Brexit vote itself... Donald Trump's victory... etc.) suggests it's a bad idea to place too much faith in them. But momentum is in Johnson's favor, and the odds are improving that February 1, 2020 will be Brexit Day – rather than the anti-climax that's greeted the past four would-be Brexit deadlines. (Bettors on PredictIt currently give it nearly two-to-one odds.)
2) I really enjoyed Stephen Schwarzman's new book, What It Takes: Lessons in the Pursuit of Excellence. Here's a review in the Wall Street Journal: 'What It Takes' Review: The Ingredients of Success. Excerpt:
Blackstone Group (BX) has been a profit machine ever since , becoming probably the world's largest alternative asset manager, with $545 billion under management and a portfolio of companies employing hundreds of thousands of people. Blackstone today is an imposing financial edifice largely of Mr. Schwarzman's making, even as he has become a noted philanthropist – and a lightning rod for critics of plutocratic excess.
How did all this happen? His memoir, What It Takes, offers a cautiously engaging recapitulation of Mr. Schwarzman's life and career, if not the secret to earning billions. The tycoon himself says you can't learn to be an entrepreneur – yet in keeping with its subtitle, "Lessons in the Pursuit of Excellence," the book surprises by delivering more than the usual homilies for executives and others in business...
It's clear that Mr. Schwarzman, now 72, has learned a thing or two during his long career. The most salient: "It's as easy to do something big as it is to do something small. Both will consume your time and energy, so make sure your fantasy is worthy of your pursuit, with rewards commensurate to your effort." Mr. Schwarzman is worth billions. Let it not be said that he failed to practice what he preached.
Here's a picture of the cover:
3) It's great to see that this lawsuit is getting traction: Sex Trafficking via Facebook Sets Off a Lawyer's Novel Crusade, from the New York Times. Excerpt:
McAdams is waging a legal assault against Facebook and other tech companies, accusing them of facilitating the sex trafficking of minors. In a series of lawsuits in California, Georgia, Missouri and Texas, she is using a novel argument to challenge the 1996 law, and finding some early success. This year, a Texas judge has repeatedly denied Facebook's motions to dismiss her lawsuits.
Section 230 states that Internet companies are not liable for what their users post. Ms. McAdams argues that, in the case of pimps using Facebook and Instagram to lure children into prostitution, separate laws require Facebook to warn users of that risk and do more to prevent it.
This is what I wrote last month, commenting on this topic, Child Abusers Run Rampant as Tech Companies Look the Other Way:
What the hell is the matter with these tech companies and their executives – including Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Facebook (FB), Dropbox (DBX), Snap (SNAP), and Yahoo?! If I ran a company and had even the faintest hint that my product or service were being exploited by child sexual predators, combatting this would be my highest priority, profits and share price be damned... I suspect this article will shame the entire tech sector into taking action, underscoring the importance of good investigative journalism.
4) Reason No. 3 why making a lot of money can actually increase the odds of divorce: Rich people tend to attract those interested in having an affair.
I know it's a cliché, but there's a lot of truth to it. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos and his new girlfriend, Lauren Sanchez, seem to be very happy and in love. But if he weren't one of the wealthiest men in the world, would the affair that ended both of their long-standing marriages have occurred?
Best regards,
Whitney