Market melt-up; More bull-bear debate on Tesla; Hindenburg short report on KNDI; Whale Sculpture Stops Train From Plunge

1) Stocks had an incredible November...

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 11.8% – its best month since early 1987 – while the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index rose 10.8% and 11.9%, respectively – their best gains since April.

I wasn't surprised by the market's post-election reaction – in my October 27 e-mail, I wrote:

All eyes are focused on the election a week from today... and a lot of people are losing their minds – panicked at the consequences if their candidate/party loses.

This fear isn't entirely irrational, as this election will indeed have major, lasting implications for many important issues.

But when it comes to the stock market, I urge you not to panic – either today or after the election – because I think stocks are going to do fine, no matter what happens...

I was surprised, however, by the magnitude of the gains. But my colleague Enrique Abeyta wasn't – he's been pounding the table on his melt-up theme ever since the webinar he and I did right at the market bottom in the third week of March, when we said it's "the best time to be an investor in more than a decade."

2) After its extraordinary run over the past year, electric-car maker Tesla (TSLA) closed yesterday with a market cap of $538 billion – making it the sixth-most valuable company in the U.S. – trailing only tech giants Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Facebook (FB).

For any company to warrant such a high valuation, it must be extremely profitable or extremely rapidly growing – ideally both.

Tesla certainly fails the first test, as it's barely profitable – and not from making cars, but rather selling zero-emission vehicle and other regulatory credits.

But at least it's growing super fast, right?

Well, as with seemingly everything about Tesla, bulls and bears disagree...

The bulls argue that even with its main factory in Fremont, California, closed for two months and its new Giga Shanghai one shuttered for a month, Tesla is on track to sell a half a million cars this year, up 36% from 2019. Plus, the company is likely to sell 867,000 cars in 2021, up another 73% (estimates from @TroyTeslike – his full spreadsheet is here).

On the other hand, Tesla bears argue that this growth is driven by launching new models and opening new factories, which is masking the reality that sales of Tesla's "mature" products – the Model S, X, and 3 – are declining in its most mature markets: the U.S. and Europe.

Let's look at the data for the Model 3, which accounted for 73% of the cars that Tesla sold in the first three quarters of this year. This table (provided to me by a friend – here's his source) shows unit sales, broken down by region, from January 2019 through October of this year (the latest period available). Note that U.S. data are hard to get, so those numbers are lumped in with the rest of world ("ROW"):

Here's a chart of this:

At first glance, the numbers look decent: Tesla sold 19% more Model 3s in the first 10 months of this year relative to the same period last year. Then, add in rapidly growing sales for the new Model Y, and the growth story gets even more exciting, right?

But when you break down sales by the three regions, you can see that Model 3 sales are actually declining in the more mature markets (U.S./ROW and Europe), and this is being masked by China sales as the new Giga Shanghai factory ramps up.

Let's first look at the U.S./ROW (the U.S. accounts for roughly 80% of this):

Here's the chart:

As you can see, total sales are down in eight of the 10 months this year, for a total of negative 16%.

In Europe, it's almost as bad:

Here's the Europe chart:

Sales are down in seven out of the nine months, for a total of negative 14%.

The only growth area is China, which isn't surprising given that Tesla was starting from zero:

And here's the China chart:

It will be a challenge for Tesla to maintain growth in China when it has competition from literally hundreds of local companies.

In conclusion, Tesla has become one of the most valuable companies in the world due almost entirely to its growth story – and indeed, at first glance, its growth has been impressive.

However, the most impressive kind of growth comes not only from new products in new markets, but also from steadily increasing "same-store sales," to use a metric common among retailers.

Costco Wholesale (COST) is a great example. Though it's been around for more than 37 years, in the past five years, the bulk retailer has grown revenue at a healthy 7.9% annually in two ways: growing store count by 3.2% annually, while at the same time increasing same-store sales by an average of 6% each year. Investors wouldn't value Costco's stock nearly as highly if sales at its mature stores were stagnant (or, worse yet, declining).

Yet that appears to be the case with Tesla. Sales of Tesla's primary car, the Model 3, are actually in double-digit decline everywhere in the world except for China.

I am not advocating shorting the stock – I've seen too many of my friends get run over – but those who've had a wonderful ride on this rocket ship might want to bank some profits, especially if it's in a tax-free account...

3) Activist short-seller Nate Anderson of Hindenburg Research, who famously slammed electric-truck developer Nikola (NKLA), issued a similarly skeptical report on Chinese electric-vehicle maker Kandi Technologies (KNDI), sending its stock down 28% yesterday. You can read it here, and here's a summary:

• Today we reveal what we believe to be a brazen scheme by China-based, NASDAQ-listed Kandi Technologies Group to falsify revenue using fake sales to undisclosed affiliates.
• Our investigation included extensive on-the-ground inspection at Kandi's factories and customer locations in China, interviews with over a dozen former employees and business partners, and review of numerous litigation documents and international public records.
• We unmasked Kandi's "unnamed" top customers and found that almost 64% of Kandi's last twelve months (LTM) sales have been to undisclosed related parties.
• The company's largest customer, representing ~55% of last twelve months (LTM) sales, shares a phone number with a Kandi subsidiary, and shared an executive with Kandi.
• We visited the "customer". It is based in a tiny building right next to Kandi's factory with a sign indicating that it's a Kandi company. The same building housed another entity used by Kandi as part of a separate fake sales scheme to collect illegitimate subsidies from the Chinese government, for which it was fined and sanctioned.
• Kandi's second largest customer, representing ~9% of LTM sales, was once wholly owned by the company. Its website still integrates the Kandi logo with the customer name. Export records show that 91% of the U.S. exports by the "customer" went to undisclosed related party entities based out of Kandi's U.S. headquarters and warehouses.
• To support this, we have photographic evidence of one such Kandi "customer's" inventory sitting in Kandi's own warehouse.
• Kandi's financials corroborate our concerns. The company has consistently booked revenue it cannot collect, a classic hallmark of fake revenue. Its Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) a common measure of revenue collection, was 278 days in the previous quarter, about 5.6x worse than its closest auto peer.
• Kandi's top financial ranks have been a revolving door; another key sign of accounting irregularities. The company has had three auditors in the past five years, and four Chief Financial Officers in the past four years.
• Kandi's current auditor, Marcum, was just handed a three-year ban from auditing Chinese companies by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB). Rather than firing the auditor, Kandi just reported its intention to renew the engagement.
• Kandi's latest issues are part of a long-running pattern, rather than an isolated incident. The architects of Kandi's original go-public transaction were charged with fraud by the SEC in 2014 for, among other things, engaging in a scheme with Kandi's (still) Chairman/CEO to artificially inflate its stock price.
• In 2016, Kandi's long-serving prior auditor was ejected from the industry by the PCAOB specifically for failure to catch obvious signs of fraud at Kandi, including misappropriation by company management and undisclosed related party transactions.
• Kandi's latest pitch to investors is focused on an imminent U.S. launch. We show that Kandi has been "launching" in the U.S. for 12 years. Its first U.S. vehicles were imported illegally and seized by customs. A former distribution partner said every single car that eventually made it into the country broke.
• Kandi has a reputation in China for poor quality vehicles and failing to honor service warranties. The company has reported no domestic EV sales for years outside of its minority stake in a joint venture. We expect its U.S. efforts will continue to sputter.
• We also review Kandi's partnership with a Chinese rideshare company, which it has repeatedly claimed could lead to up to 300,000 EV sales. We show that the rideshare partner's app is mostly vaporware; it has almost no users and isn't even ranked among China's top 50 rideshare apps.
• Lastly, we address the company's much-touted battery swap program, which is preliminary and hopelessly behind peers, including Kandi's own partner Geely. Without a meaningful number of cars on the road Kandi's battery swap efforts simply don't make sense.
• Kandi raised $160 million from U.S. investors this month alone. All told, we think Kandi has engaged in a major fake revenue scheme, hyping its story to U.S. investors, in order to take advantage of regulatory gaps enabling China-based companies to siphon cash from U.S. capital markets with impunity.

4) What a crazy story in the New York Times! Whale Sculpture Stops Train From Plunge in the Netherlands. Excerpt:

A train that went careening over the end of elevated tracks in the Netherlands on Monday was left teetering about 30 feet above the ground. But no one was injured or killed in the accident – thanks to a sculpture of a whale's tail that stopped the train from plunging.

"It's like the scene of a Hollywood movie," said Ruud Natrop, a spokesman for safety in the Rotterdam-Rijnmond area, where the accident occurred. "Thank God the tail was there."

Best regards,

Whitney