Pandemic dashboard; Deaths FROM COVID versus WITH COVID; Denmark data; U.S. excess mortality shows no omicron wave; IFR of the flu versus omicron; People Are Booking Airbnbs in Ukraine as a Way to Send Aid
1) It has been a while since I've had time to send an update on the pandemic, but rest assured I'm still following it closely! (If you wish to subscribe to my coronavirus e-mail list, simply send a blank e-mail to: cv-subscribe@mailer.kasecapital.com.)
The news regarding the pandemic is excellent almost everywhere in the world (except Hong Kong). Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are falling fast in the U.S., as I predicted long ago (source)...
2) For a while now – especially since the omicron variant hit – the reported case numbers from around the world have become increasingly unreliable because so many people who get COVID-19 either don't get tested or don't report the results of a home test because their symptoms are mild or nonexistent.
But here's an interesting and important new twist: death numbers are also increasingly unreliable.
First, some background... The anti-vaxxers have, since the start of the pandemic, been claiming (among many other wrongheaded things) that the COVID death counts are vastly overstated and therefore there's no cause for alarm, don't worry about getting vaccinated or wearing masks, government measures restricting travel, business, etc. are tyranny, yada, yada, yada...
To make their point, they like to give an example of the young guy who, riding his motorcycle, gets in a terrible accident. When taken to the hospital, clinging to life, he tests positive for COVID and then dies. Officially, therefore, he is considered a COVID death, but obviously in this case he died with COVID, not from COVID.
But drawing the broad conclusion that COVID deaths are overstated from an anecdote like this is ridiculous.
For every guy who happens to have COVID who dies in a motorcycle accident, there are far more people who died from COVID, but never went to the hospital (the norm in poor countries) or were never tested and, as a result, genuine COVID deaths weren't captured by the statistics.
So, as I've shown again and again, COVID deaths have been vastly understated – to a small degree in developed countries like the U.S. and Europe (maybe 10% – excess deaths in the U.S. are roughly 100,000 more than the official 957,427... see: U.S. 'excess deaths' during pandemic surpassed 1 million, with covid killing most but other diseases adding to the toll, CDC says) and a large degree in less developed countries like India and in Africa. The Economist estimates (see: The pandemic's true death toll) that, while official COVID deaths worldwide just passed 6 million, the real number, based on an analysis of excess deaths, is nearly 20 million people!
However, just as a broken clock is right twice a day, the anti-vaxxers are finally right that there's now a big divergence between deaths with versus from COVID. Here's why...
Imagine a new variant emerged that quickly infected every person in an area, but only made a few people sick. In that case, nearly every death in that area – cancer, heart disease, motorcycle accidents, old age, etc. – would be counted as a COVID death, even though few people actually died from COVID.
Well, I've just pretty much described the omicron variant...
3) We can see this most clearly in Denmark, which, as I've discussed in prior e-mails to my coronavirus list, a little over a month ago declared an end to the pandemic and lifted all restrictions.
Sure enough, COVID cases, hospitalizations, and deaths skyrocketed, as you can see in these charts (adding the U.S., the U.K., and Sweden for comparison) (source):
As you can see, Denmark right now has higher cases, hospitalizations, and deaths per capita than the three comparison countries, so lifting COVID restrictions has clearly been a disaster, right?
WRONG!
It turns out that the deaths from COVID have actually stayed flat. Huh? How can that be, in light of the daily deaths chart above?
This article and chart explain what's going on: Mortality due to COVID-19 in Denmark is not increasing as much as are case numbers. Excerpt:
The report confirms the pattern by showing that more people now die "with" COVID-19 than "due to" COVID-19 as high case numbers are being recorded due to the spreading of the omicron variant. As shown in Figure 1, the share of all 30-day COVID-19 deaths assessed to have occurred "with" COVID-19 has followed an increasing trend since early 2022, whereas the number of deaths "due to" COVID-19 has remained largely stable. Even so, some uncertainty characterizes the latest few weeks as a considerable share of death certificates has yet to be registered.
Figure 1. Deaths "due to" and "with" COVID-19 based on death certificates, from March 2020 to February 2022, compared with 30 COVID-19 deaths (red line). Reports from the Danish Causes of Death Registry, the Danish Health Data Authority and the SSI.
You can see what's really happening in Denmark by looking at excess deaths, which have barely budged (source):
Incidentally, here's the same chart, adding Sweden to rebut those who think Sweden's policy of having few restrictions/lockdowns early in the pandemic was a wise course – both countries had similar economic damage, but Sweden had far higher excess deaths in the first two waves:
(If you're wondering why the excess deaths were far below trend a year ago, the main reason is that the flu season was very mild because everyone was social distancing, etc.)
4) So now let's turn back to the U.S. Again, here's the daily death chart from above:
Note that there are four waves, with the most recent one (omicron) being the second worst.
But now let's compare this with the excess deaths chart (source):
As you can see, THERE IS NO FOURTH WAVE! This is because the same thing is happening here as in Denmark – roughly 70% of the reported COVID deaths are of people with COVID, not from COVID (this is likely true of hospitalizations as well).
Now I hope it's clearer why I've changed my view and think we should follow the lead of Denmark and the U.K., start treating COVID like the flu, and lift nearly all restrictions...
5) The latest data I've seen, which I'll discuss in the next e-mail to my coronavirus e-mail list, is that the infection fatality rate ("IFR") of the omicron variant is roughly 50% more than the flu. That sounds high, but think of it this way: the flu kills approximately 0.1% of the people it infects versus roughly 0.15% for omicron. Said another way, 99.9% who get the flu survive. Do we really continue to need restrictions because that number drops to 99.85% due to COVID?
6) I read this article in the Wall Street Journal, People Are Booking Airbnbs in Ukraine as a Way to Send Aid, and think this is brilliant, so I booked a one-week stay in an apartment in Kyiv from a highly rated Superhost for a total of $459.76. It was super easy – it took only a minute – and Airbnb has waived its usual fees.
I was glad to see that I'm not the first person to do this, as I immediately got an auto-reply, saying:
We greet you! Thanks for your support and help. This is very valuable. We want to inform you that all the funds that we received from the different people of the Airbnb community will be sent to support the resistance, which one of our employees joined. From day one he stood up for the defense of our Country, City, Home and our peace of mind. We wish you all peace to your Homes! ❤️ ❤️
I replied:
Stay strong, know that the entire world is behind you, and may your employee kill many Russians!
Here's the screenshot:
(A few folks objected to me writing "may your employee kill many Russians!" I replied: "I hear you, but if I could push a button and all 190,000 Russian soldiers who've invaded Ukraine would suddenly drop dead, I'd push it in a heartbeat. Wouldn't you?" War is hell and, sadly, the way to win is to kill as many enemy soldiers as possible.)
It looks like a nice apartment and I suspect the owner and I will now be friends for life, so when (not if) the Ukrainians expel the Russian invaders, I hope Susan and I can visit Kyiv and stay here!
Best,
Whitney
P.S. I welcome your feedback at WTDfeedback@empirefinancialresearch.com.