Artificial Intelligence Is Killing the Smartphone

In 2004, I stood before a United States congressional hearing on wireless technology and told lawmakers that the future would be unrecognizable.

Mobile phones, music players, GPS units, cameras, and game consoles – all of them would collapse into a single device.

Your word-processing program wouldn't run on Microsoft (MSFT) or Apple (AAPL) operating systems. It would live entirely on the Internet, in the cloud.

You'd touch your phone to a book in a store and access all its information – or even buy it on the spot.

At the time, the iPhone hadn't even been announced. BlackBerries were still cutting-edge. Most people in the room thought I was describing science fiction.

Today, those predictions aren't just true... they're boring. But here's what matters: I didn't make lucky guesses. I used a three-step framework that reveals which technological shifts are inevitable.

And ironically, the same three steps show that the device I helped predict in 2004 is now obsolete...

The smartphone itself must die.

Make Better Predictions as a Tech Investor

I don't predict the future by chasing headlines... I use the constraint curve.

You see, every major transformation follows the same three-step pattern:

1. Economic and technological pressure builds to an unsustainable breaking point.
2. Existing infrastructure fails to handle the mounting stress.
3. New technology rushes in to fill the void – not because it's cool, but because the math demands it.

The constraint curve doesn't care about your preferences, your comfort level, or your timeline. It only cares about pressure, breaking points, and the rush of technology to fill the gaps.

It's not about what could happen... It's about what must happen – because the alternative is system collapse.

And the investors who understand these curves – and position themselves ahead of them – will define the next era of the financial markets.

How I Saw the Smartphone Revolution Coming

In 2004, I told Congress that carrying separate devices for music, photos, navigation, and communication was unsustainable. The pressure was building... People were literally weighed down by gadgets.

Each device came with its own charger, its own interface, and its own learning curve... not to mention separate embedded memory, screens, and semiconductors.

In short, the existing infrastructure was failing. Consumers were hitting a complexity ceiling... And they were running out of pocket space.

Worse, the wireless networks of the time were designed for voice calls, not data-hungry applications.

The solution was clear: Everything would move to a single wireless Internet platform. As I told lawmakers, "The wireless Internet basically becomes this new platform for development and the transfer of information... a new platform for device integration."

It wasn't a prediction. It was a mathematical certainty. The iPhone didn't create this future – it simply arrived at the exact moment the constraint curve demanded it.

Three years later, Steve Jobs unveiled the iPhone. The rest is history.

The Next Inevitable Shift: The Death of the Smartphone

Today, I've been using the same constraint curve analysis to identify the next wave of inevitable transformations. That's how I know the once-revolutionary smartphone has run out of time...

Step 1: Economic Pressure Building

The smartphone has hit biological and economic limits. The average person checks their phone 144 times daily – every 7.5 minutes of waking life.

This isn't productivity. It's addiction. Workers lose 23 minutes of focus every time they check their phones

costs the economy $650 billion annually.

Meanwhile, the technology itself is falling short. Screens can't get much larger... Touch interfaces can't provide the rich haptic feedback our brains crave... And voice recognition in noisy environments remains limited.

These technological limits are causing problems. And they're becoming harder to ignore. Just as one example, repetitive strain injuries from touchscreens now affect 70% of smartphone users.

We're breaking our bodies – just to access information through a 6-inch rectangle.

Step 2: Infrastructure Breaking Point

Smartphones used to be convenient. That's no longer true.

We're failing to fix these technological and economic drawbacks. And that means smartphones no longer fit into our lives as we know them...

Smartphones require constant visual attention in a world where that's increasingly dangerous and inefficient. Just think about distracted driving – which causes 400,000 injuries per year.

More critically, technology has outgrown the smartphone interface. As artificial intelligence ("AI") takes over, that's showing up as a bottleneck between humans and technology.

We're forcing increasingly sophisticated AI systems to communicate through text on tiny screens. It's like trying to have a conversation through a keyhole.

Step 3: Technology Rushing In

We need different ways of doing what we're doing. Voice-first AI and augmented reality ("AR") aren't emerging because they're cool... They're emerging because the constraint curve demands them.

When computing becomes easier than pulling out a phone, the smartphone will be useless. That timeline isn't set by Apple's designers... It's set when the costs of screen-based interaction exceed the benefits.

We're already seeing a flood of possible replacements.

Companies like Apple, Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Snap (SNAP) are racing to build the infrastructure for a post-smartphone world: AR glasses, AI assistants, and even neural interfaces.

Other companies like Garmin (GRMN) have bet on watches, while private companies like Oura are betting on rings... And companies like Neuralink and Paradromics are betting on direct links to the brain.

My analysis suggests the smartphone's constraint curve will break between 2026 and 2029. That's about when voice-first AI should become more efficient than typing, and AR glasses will be lighter than smartphones.

Why This Investing Technique Matters to You

The end of this era will have massive effects.

We'll see the collapse of the roughly $550 billion (or 1.2 billion-unit) smartphone industry as we know it... the total overhaul of app stores... the death of social media as screen-based entertainment... and more.

A real, inevitable tech revolution like this isn't about hype. It's about survival.

The companies that recognize – and solve – these constraint curves early will shape the next era of wealth creation. The ones who miss out will be left in the dust.

You're either early... or you're obsolete.

Good investing,

Josh Baylin