Amid political uncertainty, don't be rash with your investing; Another epic climb!

1) Political uncertainty is once again in the headlines...

As always, I do my best to keep politics and my personal political opinions out of my daily investing e-mails.

But when the political "noise" gets louder in the media, it's critically important to keep a level head when it comes to the investment implications...

Today, rumors are swirling that President Joe Biden may step aside as the Democratic presidential nominee. In a post yesterday afternoon on X, journalist Mark Halperin shared these details:

Shortly thereafter, the New York Times indicated that Biden was indeed likely to step aside: People Close to Biden Say He Appears to Accept He May Have to Leave the Race. Excerpt:

Several people close to President Biden said on Thursday that they believe he has begun to accept the idea that he may not be able to win in November and may have to drop out of the race, bowing to the growing demands of many anxious members of his party.

One of the people close to him warned that the president had not yet made up his mind to leave the race after three weeks of insisting that almost nothing would drive him out. But another said that "reality is setting in," and that it would not be a surprise if Mr. Biden made an announcement soon endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement.

As the article continued, three developments seem to be a potential tipping point:

The decision by Representative Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker, to weigh in so strongly, new state polls showing that his path to an Electoral College victory has grown far more remote and the boycott of key party donors.

The discussions among Mr. Biden's advisers have advanced to the point that they are talking about the best timing and other details for an announcement if the president decides to give up his bid for a second term, according to one of the people informed about the situation. While some were anticipating that an announcement could come as early as the next few days, the timing remained in flux in part because Mr. Biden is in isolation at his vacation home in Rehoboth Beach, Del., after a Covid diagnosis.

On the other hand, as Biden's campaign chair Jen O'Malley Dillon said this morning on MSNBC's Morning Joe program:

Absolutely the president is in this race. Joe Biden is more committed than ever to beat Donald Trump...

You have heard from the president directly time and again, he is in this race to win. He is our nominee, and he's going to be our president for a second term.

So will Biden step aside?

The real-money betting sites I follow, PredictIt and Polymarket, certainly think so – giving him only a 22% chance of remaining the nominee as of earlier this morning.

I think odds that he remains are even lower. (To be clear, I'm not expressing any opinion on what should happen... simply on what will happen.)

2) So what are the implications of all this for investors?

For now, none.

There are too many moving pieces to have any degree of conviction about how the election plays out. (For what it's worth, as of earlier this morning, PredictIt and Polymarket have former President Trump 63% likely to win in November.)

That means resisting the urge to do something rash.

As I said in my June 14 e-mail:

It seems like everyone thinks the world is going to come to an end if their guy doesn't win.

I think the winner of the presidential race will matter a great deal in almost every area – except stocks.

Stocks did great under former President Donald Trump until COVID-19 came out of left field. And stocks have also done great under President Joe Biden.

From the day Trump was inaugurated to the market's February 2020 peak before the pandemic escalated, the S&P 500 Index rose 49%. And from Biden's inauguration through yesterday's close, the S&P 500 is up 41%...

If you want to be a successful investor over time, don't let your personal politics – or your emotions – affect your analysis of economic factors and your investment decision making.

At some point, my team and I here at Stansberry Research may develop a high degree of conviction about the election outcome that's contrary to the consensus view, figure out a way to profit from it, and share this with our subscribers – as my former colleagues and I at my old firm Empire Financial Research did profitably prior to the 2020 election (see my June 28 e-mail for details).

If my team and I at Stansberry make a similar call, our subscribers at Stansberry's Investment Advisory will be the first to know. (If you aren't a subscriber already, right now you can become one and take advantage of a 30-day money-back guarantee – you can get all the details as part of a special presentation right here.)

3) I finished my annual climbs for my favorite charity cause – KIPP charter schools – on Wednesday and took the red-eye home from Seattle that night... my third all-nighter in four days!

After pulling an all-nighter on Sunday night climbing the North Ridge of Mount Baker with my longtime guide Paul – covering 13.3 miles and 6,644 feet of vertical in 15 hours (for photos and details, see my Facebook post here) – we rested on Monday afternoon and Tuesday.

We had originally planned to tackle our second objective, the West Ridge of Forbidden Peak, over three days. But we decided that wasn't epic enough... so we did it in a single-push (called "car to car in a day").

We set off at midnight Tuesday, summited at 9 a.m. Wednesday, and arrived back at our car at 4 p.m. – a massive 16-hour day covering 10.8 miles and 5,200 feet of vertical.

Unlike Mount Baker, which was mostly glacier trekking, the upper part of Forbidden Peak involved some adrenaline-inducing, awe-inspiring rock climbing. No wonder it's rated one of the 50 Classic Climbs of North America.

Here are some pictures (you can see more on my Facebook page here):

Best regards,

Whitney

P.S. I welcome your feedback – send me an e-mail by clicking here.