1) Restaurant chain Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) reported earnings after the close on Wednesday.
As you might recall, it was in the headlines for all the wrong reasons last month. The company faced public backlash after changing its logo (and has since changed it back), as detailed in this Wall Street Journal article.
The quarter ended on August 1, before all the negative news. So the numbers were decent...
Accounting for an extra week in 2024, revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ("EBITDA") rose 4% and 8%, respectively.
But shares sank 7.6% yesterday to close at $45.80. That was likely based on management's dismal outlook for fiscal 2026.
The company now "assumes a comparable store traffic decline of 4% to 7%." It's also guiding for adjusted EBITDA of $150 to $190 million, far below last year's $224.3 million.
I'm shocked the stock wasn't down 25%. Based on my analysis on August 27 (when the stock was at $62.33), I noted that earnings "estimates are at risk due to the latest negative publicity."
I concluded:
Putting it all together, Cracker Barrel looks like an easy pass.
It's trading at multiples that are roughly double what I'd be interested in paying for a now-controversial, mediocre business in decline.
After the latest dreadful guidance, CBRL is an even easier pass today...
2) In my August 27 e-mail, I also wrote about how my great aunt was almost scammed out of $10,000.
According to this article from The Hill, what happened to her is widespread. Excerpt:
Since 2024, the scam has reportedly been used to steal over $1 billion in funds, with the majority of victims being at least 60 years old, according to FBI data.
"These attacks are not just simple phone calls or phishing emails – they're complex operations that involve multiple impersonators, spoofed phone numbers, and coordinated follow-ups," Scott Davis, chairman of the Cybersecurity Association of Pennsylvania, said in a recent interview. "Seniors are being tricked into believing they're protecting their money, when in reality they're handing it straight to criminals."
The article goes on to detail how exactly these scam operations are pulled off:
While pretending to work in tech support for a legitimate company, the scammer will use a phone call, text, email or pop-up window to contact the victim.
Once the victim calls for tech support help, the scammer instructs them to download a program giving access to the victim's computer. After pretending to check the device for viruses, the scammer will then suggest the victim open financial accounts to look for unauthorized charges.
After choosing an account to target, the scammer tells the victim to wait for a call from the "fraud department" of the bank or institution holding the funds.
I hear and read similar stories almost daily. Be careful!
3) I really enjoyed this collection of charts by Charlie Bilello, in which he rebuts common stock market sayings with historical data. Here are three of my favorites:
- Rising National Debt Must Be Bad for the Stock Market
- Stocks Will Never Come Back From This Bear Market/Crisis
- Putting Money Under Your Mattress Is an Effective Strategy to Combat Inflation
4) I never would have imagined that half the American population lives in such a small part of our great nation, as you can see in this chart from Brilliant Maps:
Here's a fun test:
- How many states can you identify?
- How many capitals can you name?
- How many of these metropolitan areas can you identify?
My answers:
- 50 (I've been to all but four: North Dakota, Iowa, Arkansas, and Mississippi. Need to fix that!)
- 48 (I missed Kansas and Maine!)
- Roughly 90%
Best regards,
Whitney
P.S. I welcome your feedback – send me an e-mail by clicking here.