Around to Tell the Tale
A limited-time event for Stansberry Research readers... Porter Stansberry and Doc Eifrig in conversation... A crisis as big as 2008... Four sectors of interest... The latest Alliance Town Hall... Optimism abounds in stocks...
Oh, the irony...
We told you yesterday and Friday about Stansberry Research founder Porter Stansberry's exclusive new sit-down interview with longtime friend and Stansberry Research partner Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig...
We said they would talk about what really happened behind the scenes with Porter these past few years... why you haven't heard from him in these pages much (aside from very recently)... and, importantly, what Porter is expecting from the economy and markets in 2024 and how he suggests preparing now.
This morning, those who signed up to watch this limited-time, Stansberry Research-only event got all the details. As Doc said at the start of the interview...
When you hear what actually happened, you probably won't believe it...
From there, Doc and Porter revealed the story of the past few years, which Porter described as "absolutely brutal." He explained how he was "staring down the barrel of bankruptcy" and why he started Porter & Co., a boutique investment service separate from Stansberry Research, in 2022... and then a couple of months ago ultimately returned to our business as the chairman and CEO of our parent company, MarketWise.
I (Corey McLaughlin) won't reveal much more here.
This event is intended for Stansberry Research readers only. If you want the full details, be sure to watch or listen. (And if you're a Stansberry Alliance member, make sure to check your inbox for a special access link.)
The interview will only be available online until Thursday morning at 10 a.m. Eastern time. Plus, this is a story you should hear from our founder yourself. But we will share this one excerpt from Doc – editor of our Retirement Millionaire newsletter and other Stansberry publications – that speaks to the heart of the matter. As Doc said...
There's a certain irony to the whole saga.
For years, we have railed against the greed, corruption, and conflict of interest that plague Wall Street in our writing. More so than anyone else, we have shone a light on the fact that these financial institutions often don't have the individual investor's best interests at heart.
But in the end, this beast, the thing we hate the most, ended up inside our own company and nearly destroyed us.
Fortunately, we're still around to tell the tale. You can hear it now – and more – in this special event.
As we mentioned, in this broadcast with Doc, you'll get Porter's insight on the markets today... including why he sees a crisis brewing that will be at 2007 and 2008 levels... and the four sectors of the market he's particularly interested in right now.
He says each of them "will benefit massively from the chaos coming in 2024." You can watch this limited-time-only event here. And, again, Stansberry Alliance members, be sure to check your inbox for your special access link.
The latest Stansberry Alliance Town Hall...
Speaking of the Stansberry Alliance, just yesterday we published the latest exclusive quarterly Alliance Town Hall event...
These are free-flowing conversations with our analysts and editors designed to bring folks up to speed on the biggest market stories, updates from our business, and more.
In the latest video, our Director of Research Matt Weinschenk sits down with a recent, major addition to our team – Whitney Tilson. As we wrote in an update to Alliance members yesterday...
Whitney spent nearly 20 years running a value-based hedge fund. And he has always loved sharing his ideas. So when he closed his hedge fund in 2017, he decided to start publishing his investment ideas.
As Alliance members know, Whitney recently joined Stansberry Research as the editor of our flagship newsletter, Stansberry's Investment Advisory.
Matt and Whitney talked about what drives his investment process, his long relationships with Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, and why all investors must be lifelong "learning machines." Matt even put Whitney's knowledge of Buffett and Munger to the test with a little quiz.
Whitney also explained why he believes every investor should own Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) – even if you think it's too well known to deliver high returns.
To that point, I'd also urge any Alliance members and existing subscribers to check out the latest issue of Stansberry's Investment Advisory for more of Whitney's thoughts on Berkshire, plus his unlikely path toward connecting with Buffett and the late Munger.
Stansberry Alliance members can watch the full Town Hall video right here. A transcript will be available soon as well.
And about the market today...
Optimism abounds. The major U.S. indexes continue to move higher on the heels of what appears to be widely perceived as a "dovish" turn by the Federal Reserve last week.
As we reported last Wednesday, the Fed continued a "pause" in interest-rate hikes and projected three rate cuts in 2024. Next came a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell that did nothing to dissuade the idea of those cuts actually happening.
In the days since, stocks have charged higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average made a new all-time high last Wednesday, and as of today, the benchmark S&P 500 Index has recovered nearly all of its bear market losses... Small-cap stocks have been outperforming, which you typically see coming out of bear markets.
In the wake of the central bank's decision, other Fed officials – Powell's underlings, you could say – have been out in the media trying to walk things back... suggesting that the idea of rate cuts is premature.
Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed, said yesterday he was "confused" by the market's reaction to the Fed's decision and Powell's press conference last week. John Williams of the New York Fed said in a Friday interview with CNBC that the central bank isn't "really talking about rate cuts right now."
But it might be semantics. Even if the Fed isn't talking about rate cuts... based on the projections Fed members wrote down and the central bank published, the Fed is at least thinking about them.
There shouldn't be any confusion about it...
The Fed is signaling that it really will cut rates in 2024, that the inflation fight is over, and the prospect has enough investors excited or with enough fodder to keep putting bullish bets on. But that sentiment, or at least the scale, is probably the part that is misguided over the long term.
As we detailed earlier this month, rate cuts mean things are going wrong with economy... And history shows that before and after the Fed decides to cut rates, stocks take a hit. And in cases where the market is "expensive," the damage only gets worse. As I wrote in the December 7 edition...
In the past 50 years, after the Fed has started a rate-cutting cycle, the S&P 500 has dropped by an average of 20% after the bank's first cut before hitting a low, according to data from Bloomberg and global institutional brokerage and advisory firm Strategas Research.
So maybe Goolsbee is rightfully confused by the market's reaction to the idea of cuts ahead.
But then again, he (and we) shouldn't be. Human nature doesn't change. Greed is powerful, just like fear. A cheaper "cost of money" can send stocks higher no matter what that outcome might logically mean about the economy weakening just around the next corner.
For now, this has been a good holiday season for stocks...
We won't argue with the price action. The S&P 500 is up more than 15% since its most recent low in late October, even as recession signals scream.
And this has been a broad rally.
As my friend and colleague Dan Ferris pointed out to us today, the equal-weight S&P 500 Index just went from a 52-week low to a 52-week high in only 33 trading days, according to SentimenTrader.
With all this in mind, our Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond – who, you may remember, called the market top and bottom in 2022 and has been bullish lately – served up a timeless reminder to his subscribers in his Weekly Market Outlook on Monday...
Let me share these "pro tips" with you...
The market doesn't care about your feelings or what you "think" about any company or sector. The market will do what it's going to do... You can't control it.
So rather than getting angry or making up sensational conspiracy theories, focus your energy on what the market is actually doing... not what you want it to do.
Longtime Ten Stock Trader subscribers know that I write about this topic often. And I'll continue to do so, because it's that important...
You must always, always focus on what comes next. If you're wrong, just admit it. Manage your risk moving forward and align yourself with the market. If you're right, take the profits, add to your position, or do nothing.
Greg then went on to analyze the recent moves in interest rates – like with the 10-year Treasury yield falling to just below 4% – as they relate to stocks. He also shared what the market performance we've seen the past few months could portend about the action to come in 2024.
Ten Stock Trader subscribers and Alliance members can check out the full analysis here. I will just further share how Greg concluded because his final point is critical for anyone who wants to enjoy sustained long-term success in the markets...
If I'm correct, the 10-year U.S. Treasury interest rate chart will be a critical part of our game plan heading into 2024.
For now, remember these key points... Focus on what the market is actually doing, admit when you're wrong, and always look at what comes next.
This is especially true when making the short-term trades that Greg recommends in his advisory... But the salient points are great advice for anyone with any money in the market at any time.
New 52-week highs (as of 12/18/23): Amazon (AMZN), American Express (AXP), CBRE Group (CBRE), Cameco (CCJ), Costco Wholesale (COST), Salesforce (CRM), Commvault Systems (CVLT), CyberArk Software (CYBR), Expedia (EXPE), W.W. Grainger (GWW), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), ICON (ICLR), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Phillips 66 (PSX), ProShares Ultra QQQ (QLD), Qualys (QLYS), Ryder System (R), SentinelOne (S), ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO), StoneCo (STNE), Trane Technologies (TT), Twilio (TWLO), Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U-U.TO), and Vanguard S&P 500 Fund (VOO).
In today's mailbag, feedback on Stansberry Research founder Porter Stansberry's Digest essays from Friday and yesterday... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Thank you sir (Porter) for coming out of the weeds. I have read everything (at least I hope) that you have written now for some time. I couldn't agree with you more about the horrible state of U.S. financials...
"How did we go from our founding fathers who said 'Neither a borrower or a lender be'!! to a government where the operative word is debt is not only good, it's great. When you run out of money to fund this bloated government [they] just keep raising the debt limits. And now we have brilliant (genius) government economists who preach we can do that forever.
"If you ask them to explain all of that then they go on this endless dialogue of economic doublespeak that makes absolutely no common sense. The reason we are in this s*** show is because no politician is going to recommend what needs to be done because it will be political suicide for his or her career. So it goes on and on until it doesn't." – Subscriber John M.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
December 19, 2023