New All-Time Highs Approaching

Ignoring Trump's latest Powell insult... Fresh records in sight... The return of dumb money... The IPO frenzy is on... A cautionary tale... The correlation between stocks and gold...

Today in Trump vs. Powell...

While onstage in the Netherlands to celebrate NATO member nations upping their defense spending to 5% of their GDP by 2035, President Donald Trump let fly another dig at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

"He is an average mentally person," Trump said to reporters. "I'd say low in terms of what he does. Low IQ for what he does, OK?... I think he's a very stupid person, actually."

It's classic Trump. It's not eloquent. It's personal. And it's blunt. You know what he means. As he has said many times, Trump means that Powell and the Fed should lower interest rates (and should have a few months ago) to help the economy along.

Trump has said and repeated today the move should happen because "we have no inflation" and it would ease U.S. debt costs (by as much as $900 billion in Trump's estimation).

Today, Trump also said he is considering a list of three or four candidates to replace Powell, whose term as Fed head ends in May 2026. "He goes up pretty soon, fortunately, because I think he's terrible," Trump said.

Lower rates might happen in the U.S. eventually... Though I (Corey McLaughlin) think every time Trump criticizes or insults Powell, the Fed chair becomes more inclined to not make the decision and pin the blame for inaction on uncertain tariff policy.

That is, in fact, what Powell said today in Washington. For the second day of his semiannual congressional testimony, he appeared before a Senate committee. He told the panel that the Fed is "well positioned to wait" on an interest-rate decision, pending more information about tariff policy and its impacts.

In the meantime, though, the market in some ways is already acting like more juice is coming (by way of lower rates and an easier cost of borrowing, or for any other reason).

On the verge of new all-time highs...

The major U.S. stock indexes are inching toward record levels again...

Yesterday, the Nasdaq 100 Index (which represents 100 of the largest nonfinancial stocks listed on the Nasdaq exchange) hit a new all-time high, as semiconductor stocks surged higher.

And the benchmark S&P 500 Index and broader Nasdaq are close to fresh all-time highs, too. The S&P 500, which was little changed today, is less than 1% from its record from February. The Nasdaq, up 0.3% today, is just about 1% from its high set in December.

What were major concerns not long ago seem to be in the rearview. Tariffs leading to a global economic slowdown? Not a concern anymore, Mr. Market says. It's a V-shaped recovery from Liberation Day.

War in the Middle East? Not as bad as it could be. Oil prices are back down, by almost 15% in two days. The CBOE Volatility Index has dropped, too – to around 17 – after spiking in response to Israel striking Iran.

War in Ukraine? Still happening, of course, but we'll worry about that another day, says the market. Companies are still earning. And friendlier corporate-tax policy could be ahead in the "big, beautiful bill."

So could more inflation, assuredly more debt, and more related problems in the future... But we'll spare you too much more of the Debbie Downer side of things today.

The IPO 'frenzy' continues...

In Friday's This Week on Wall Street, our Director of Research Matt Weinschenk highlighted the surge in companies going public this year. In short, the demand we've seen for initial public offerings ("IPOs") in 2025 shows that investors are "risk on." From Matt...

Since the start of the year, we've seen a whole bunch of big-name, big-value IPOs soar for early investors. And it says something important about the state of the market...

Specifically, investors are gaining an appetite for risk... at a time when it doesn't make sense to do so.

So far in 2025, companies have raised about $27 billion through IPOs. That's up 45% from the same period in 2024. And more IPOs are on the way...

One of the next big names is Lime. Think of Lime as Uber for electric scooters – folks pay on their phone to unlock a scooter, hop on, and ride it to wherever they want. If you live in a city, you've likely seen the green scooters on street corners.

According to a Reuters report, Lime is looking to take advantage of investors' renewed appetite for IPOs. In 2020, a funding round valued Lime at about $500 million. Now, the company is hoping for a valuation "significantly higher."

A cautionary tale...

Back in 2021, Bird (Lime's main competitor... the one with the black scooters) went public through a merger with a special purpose acquisition company ("SPAC"). Remember, 2021 was the peak of post-COVID market sentiment – marked by SPAC deals, IPOs, and meme stocks.

And at the time, Bird was valued at $2.3 billion. But that didn't last long...

Within six months after going public, Bird's stock was down more than 90%. And it went bankrupt in 2023.

Now, we're not saying that Lime will suffer the same fate as Bird. Unlike Bird, Lime turns a profit.

Bird's $2.3 billion valuation was about 10 times its 2021 sales.

Based on Lime's 2024 revenue of $686 million, it would easily surpass Bird's valuation at a multiple of only 4 times sales. At 10 times sales, Lime would be valued at nearly $7 billion.

But based on what we've seen from the 2025 IPOs so far, investors could take things much higher. For comparison, AI cloud-computing company CoreWeave (CRWV) trades at 29 times sales, and stablecoin business Circle (CRCL), which went public earlier this month, trades at 26 times sales.

We'll be watching Lime's IPO for more signs of froth in the markets.

Risky assets are back in the driver's seat...

We don't have to wait until Lime's IPO for confirmation that investors have grown more comfortable with risk. We can look at how stocks have traded since hitting their recent lows. More from Matt...

It's not just that the market has rallied. It's that the rally has come in many of the riskiest assets.

The market leaders since the April 8 bottom have been bitcoin, IPOs (as measured by the Renaissance IPO Index), and technology stocks...

Meanwhile, safer parts of the market like consumer staples and health care just can't catch a bid.

Investors are piling into the riskiest parts of the market like there are no warning signs about the economy. And for long-term investors, that's usually a good time to get cautious.

Now, it doesn't mean selling everything and holding cash... But know the environment that you're in, and don't get too caught up in high-risk bets.

In environments like this, folks should consider holding more defensive assets than risky ones, Matt says – like this year's IPOs. He concluded...

And if you do trade any of these newly public companies, make sure you know the difference between what's a quick trade and what's a long-held investment. Because hot IPOs eventually cool off.

Check out Matt's latest This Week on Wall Street video for more on what he's seeing from the IPO market today and what history tells him about short- and long-term returns of newly public companies.

In this episode, Matt sits down with special guest Lou Basenese (host of The Big Skinny podcast and longtime tech-IPO analyst) to show you how to play the frenzy without blowing up your portfolio. You can watch for free on our YouTube page here.

Lastly today, don't miss this from our friends...

This morning, our colleagues at our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics revealed what they're calling the "biggest investment breakthrough" in their business's history.

And that's saying something considering Chaikin Analytics founder Marc Chaikin is the guy behind the Power Gauge stock-rating system, plus the inventor of the Chaikin Money Flow indicator that has been part of the fabric of Wall Street for decades...

Today, Marc shared how a rare kind of investment vehicle – found in less than 3% of public companies – could hand investors the chance to double or triple their money, even in a choppy or declining market.

And he showed how to spot these opportunities with a new proprietary indicator the folks at Chaikin have developed...

You can watch a replay of the event – for free – here. Apart from learning about this breakthrough, just for tuning in, you'll hear four free recommendations. Check it out now, before it goes offline.

Critical Levels and Seasonal Signals

In today's Diamond's Edge Live video, Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond looks at key technical support and resistance levels in gold and stocks heading into the rest of the summer... He also shares a few leading indicators that flag momentum shifts before they hit the headlines.

Watch the full video here, for free, and learn more about Greg's trading strategy at TenStockTrader.com... And, as always, Ten Stock Trader subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can find all of his analysis and trade recommendations right here.

New 52-week highs (as of 6/24/25): Broadcom (AVGO), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Cameco (CCJ), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Enel (ENLAY), Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield Fund (EYLD), GE Vernova (GEV), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Microsoft (MSFT), Neuberger Berman Next Generation Connectivity Fund (NBXG), NetEase (NTES), Spotify Technology (SPOT), TransDigm (TDG), Global X Uranium Fund (URA), Telefônica Brasil (VIV), and Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI).

One quick note for the record: Last night, the New York City mayoral campaign of our friend and colleague Whitney Tilson, lead editor of Stansberry's Investment Advisory, came to an end. As Whitney says, "My life will be a lot less stressful going forward."

In his free daily newsletter today, Whitney thanked many readers who sent him words of support and encouragement over the past seven months. You can read his issue here.

Now, in our mailbag today, thoughts on a brewing financial crisis... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"I see important information that is not being talked about. Would love to see you guys take it on:

"1) Unemployment is low because severance packages are delaying the numbers.

"2) Student loans are now defaulting at a record pace and their purchasing power will affect the economy when auto payments are taken from paychecks.

"3) Inflation is low because normal people cannot afford to pay higher prices. The cure for higher prices is higher prices.

"All of this points toward a financial crisis in my opinion. What do you think?" – Subscriber Ted B.

Corey McLaughlin comment: Thanks for the note, Ted. These are all good ideas to discuss. Stay tuned for tomorrow's edition, because we're planning on covering your second point. We also wrote some about student loans and consumer debt last month here.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
June 25, 2025