Don't Let The 'National Distraction' Keep You Out of This Market
Editor's note: We're finally past the presidential election...
Now, many investors are considering how to proceed with election uncertainty behind us. According to Marc Chaikin – founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics – the election-cycle volatility overshadowed numerous moneymaking opportunities for anxious investors.
In today's Masters Series, adapted from the November 14 and November 20 issues of the free Chaikin PowerFeed e-letter, Marc details how you can profit as the market absorbs the impact of the election results...
Don't Let The 'National Distraction' Keep You Out of This Market
Folks, the uncertainty over the presidential election is behind us...
And the stock market gave Donald Trump's victory a resounding vote of confidence.
Our readers know that I called the election a "national distraction." I believed it would distract investors from the incredible moneymaking opportunities in the market this year. And I warned folks about falling for the distraction and sitting on the sidelines.
Well, there's no question that the market is soaring...
The S&P 500 Index is making new highs again. It's up around 25% so far this year.
And as we've all seen, the attitude in the market has changed dramatically since the election ended.
U.S. equity funds saw nearly $33 billion of inflows in one week alone earlier this month. But $80 billion also flowed into U.S. money-market funds.
A truly extraordinary $6.6 trillion is now sitting in U.S. money-market funds. That's a lot of potential firepower to fuel further gains in stocks...
Meanwhile, Wall Street expects a pro-business Trump administration.
The expectation is for no tax increases, unless we end up with the massive tariffs Trump has called for during his campaign. Those would in effect be tax increases.
Deregulation across the board, particularly in the financial sector, is expected to show up in small-business sentiment surveys. This normally translates to more hiring and capital expenditures by smaller businesses.
We saw that optimism with the small-cap Russell 2000 Index making 52-week highs this week.
At the same time, an economy that runs hotter for longer will put pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep inflation under control.
And Fed Chair Jerome Powell took a forceful position about serving out the remaining year of his six-year term a few weeks ago. So I expect to see a visible tug-of-war between the Trump administration and the Fed. I see that as a good thing for stock prices for the next 12 months.
Despite the strong rally in stocks across the board (or perhaps because of the underlying expectations that fueled the rally), yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury jumped... while bond prices dropped.
The weakness in bonds came in the face of the Fed's decision earlier this month to cut its key lending rate by another 25 basis points. That adds weight to the bond market's concerns about the potential for an overheated economy in the coming years.
Looking at the big picture, I'm still in the "bullish" camp. I've felt that way since January 2023.
My advice to investors is to put politics aside... ignore the fearmongering headlines about tariffs and trade wars... and stay invested in stocks.
History tells us that the stock market does great in election years. The average gain in all preelection years – over nearly 100 years – is 17%. That's almost double the annual average.
In fact, 2024 is still shaping up to be better than the average election year.
Meanwhile, the outlook recently improved for small-cap stocks...
In the Power Gauge, we use the iShares Russell 2000 Fund (IWM) to gauge the health of small caps.
And earlier this month, our system flipped from "neutral" to "bullish" on IWM. The fund had previously spent just about all of October and the first week of November in "neutral" territory.
Meanwhile, the Power Gauge gives 588 of IWM's holdings a "bullish" or better rating. And 368 stocks in IWM have a "bearish" or worse rating.
Put simply, our system sees far more stocks with upside potential than downside potential in IWM.
That's great news...
For one, it means that small caps are likely to deliver more gains in the coming months.
Keep in mind that small caps have been underperforming large-cap stocks for a long time. Over the past two years, the S&P 500 is up nearly 50% versus a roughly 26% gain for IWM.
In other words, we're likely to see some major gains in small caps as they catch up to their larger counterparts.
Of course, we'll see plenty of volatility as well. Stocks don't go up in a straight line over time.
But the larger point is that the recent rally has broadened out. And as I said, with election uncertainty behind us, make sure you stay focused on the market.
Again, I remain "bullish" on stocks...
And I expect that the technology, industrial, and financial sectors that led last week's rally – along with small-cap and mid-cap stocks – will continue to lead the market higher.
Good investing,
Marc Chaikin
Editor's note: For the first time ever, Chaikin Analytics, Stansberry Research, and our corporate affiliate Altimetry are teaming up to introduce the new lead analyst at a financial research publisher you likely haven’t heard of before. His personal connections could help you make lifechanging gains...
On December 5, this investor and former adviser to President-elect Donald Trump will show you how to use his game-changing strategy to unlock wealth. Plus, he'll share one move to make before 2025. Learn more here...