Mason Sexton's latest prediction; Lots of good economic news, reducing odds of a recession, but increasing odds of a final rate hike; Readers on weight-loss drugs
1) My old friend and Wall Street veteran Mason Sexton has launched a brand-new publication called The Map, where he will use his decades of experience to help you make sense of the turbulent market we're in.
Mason is a generation ahead of me, graduating from Harvard Business School in 1972 (I was class of '94). He spent three years in the Corporate Finance Department of Morgan Stanley, did a stint with Salomon Brothers in the Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Department, and then headed the Sales and Research Department of Mabon, Nugent & Company.
In March 1984, he founded Harmonic Research, a bi-monthly newsletter that specialized in making uncanny, specific predictions for the market – work that continues to this day.
Like me, Mason does fundamental analysis, but then layers on a range of other tools like the Elliott Wave Theory and price/time equilibrium that, frankly, I don't know much about.
But that's OK: There are a lot of ways to make money in the market, and Mason is a money-maker.
Right now, Mason says a major move is about to hit the markets on July 12. Get his full prediction here.
2) CNBC's Carl Quintanilla and Charles Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann Sonders tweeted a bunch of good economic news yesterday (below).
I'm happy to see this, though it does change the odds regarding my prediction of what the Fed does the rest of this year. The stronger the economy, the greater the likelihood that the Fed will raise again (which I think is 50/50 at this point) and the lower the likelihood that it will cut anytime this year (also 50/50):
Lastly, here's Charlie Bilello with an insightful analysis showing how resilient home prices have been, despite sharply higher interest rates:
3) I got a tremendous response to yesterday's e-mail about the miraculous new weight-loss drugs.
More than 400 of you signed up for my new personal e-mail list on this topic (to subscribe, simply send a blank e-mail to: weightlossdrugs-subscribe@mailer.kasecapital.com).
Why am I spending time on this? Because of e-mails from my readers like this one, from Gerry N.:
I first discovered the drug from reading one of your columns last year. My doctor was skeptical at first but when you wrote a follow-up column going into the research details, he went ahead and prescribed Mounjaro for me.
The results have been amazing: I've lost 50 pounds in six months, my triglycerides have come down by 60%, and my A1C went from 6.2 to 5.7 in just three months.
I am fortunate that my health insurance pays for it with a small co-pay and there are now six dosage strengths available versus just three at the drug's introduction. My BMI has gone from 33% to just under 26. Another 15 pounds is my goal and I'll be at the recommended weight for my height and age.
More astounding are the psychological benefits. I used to eat every meal like it was my last. Mounjaro just tells my brain I'm not hungry so I eat less and I don't snack any more. Those dreaded evenings in front of the TV eating anything that was around are over! While I was always active, I used to just eat more – simply offsetting the calories I was burning. My energy level is way up and I feel great.
Also, I was on Ozempic for a while before this and in spite of the claims most folks have about losing 25 pounds, I didn't lose any weight whatsoever. Mounjaro has been a life-changing drug for me.
Given the improvements in mental and physical health for so many people across the world, governments, insurers and the pharmaceutical industry need to start approaching this class of drugs as a miracle breakthrough for the problem of obesity, not a luxury for those that can afford it. Please keep pounding the table on this issue – we will be way better off as a result.
Your investment advice is spot on and I love your weekly newsletters but honestly, I will always be grateful that it was your column that convinced my doctor to prescribe Mounjaro for me – that payoff alone is priceless.
And this one from Rick A.:
I read about Mounjaro, researched it, and concluded it would be good for me.
I'm a semi-retired 59-year-old man who was always been very lean, athletic, and in shape most of my working life, but became overweight by 40 pounds. I'm on blood pressure medication, gout medication, and few others.
Every time I went to my doctor, he told me the same thing: you have to lose weight so don't eat potatoes or rice, reduce carbs, work out, and no drinking. I tried to lose weight, but after two weeks I felt bad mood swings and always went back.
So my doctor prescribed a very low dose (2.5mg) of Mounjaro about five months ago.
Today I'm down 32 pounds. I feel great, think clearer, and am much more active. Everyone tells me I look great – they actually ask me if I had plastic surgery. I no longer take any medication. No more mood swings. My wife tells me I don't snore anymore.
There are so many benefits I have received from this once-a-week injection. I truly feel so many people are in the same position as I was: overweight and cannot seem to get normal weight loss measures to work.
From health, personal appearance, mental aspects, and personal thoughts about one's self, I think the upcoming approval for Mounjaro for weight loss will be a great benefit to society.
Best regards,
Whitney
P.S. I welcome your feedback at WTDfeedback@empirefinancialresearch.com.