Riding High

The postelection buzz... Tipping our hat to the Stansberry's Investment Advisory team... This bet on change is paying off... Try our flagship newsletter today... Bitcoin blasts off... Greg Diamond: The difference with this 'Trump trade'...

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The ride continues...

The postelection buzz remains in place, as three of the four major U.S. indexes moved higher today. All now trade at or near all-time highs as the Russell 2000 Index is just 1% away from a new record.

You could call it "Trump Trade 2.0," though, as our Greg Diamond points out in his free Diamond's Edge video today, there's a big difference between November 2016 and now. Watch here.

Over the past few days, reports have emerged about Donald Trump allegedly having talks with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky (and Trump putting Elon Musk on the phone with the latter as well).

We also learned of Iranian leaders' recent assassination plot(s) against Trump. The news surely isn't going to endear Iran to the president-elect, and investors will have a slightly easier time betting on how the U.S. will respond to any Middle East wars. Globally, at least, some uncertainty about the "stage" and the actors involved has been lifted.

What comes next, nobody can guarantee. But for now, the markets have surged on expectations of what a Trump second term could bring to the U.S. and global economy...

The nonpolitical factors, too...

Plus, as I (Corey McLaughlin) wrote on Thursday, the Federal Reserve seems intent on continuing to lower interest rates and thinks high(er) inflation has been defeated – even amid signs that suggest it has not.

The "core" personal consumption expenditures ("PCE") price index – the Fed's preferred measure – grew by 0.3% in September, an annual pace well above the central bank's supposed 2% goal.

At Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference last week, most of the headlines focused on the "palace intrigue" of whether Trump can fire or demote the central bank chairman. Lost in all that chatter was a comment from Powell that this last inflation report wasn't great...

"It wasn't terrible," Powell said, "but it was a little higher than expected."

Perhaps we're scarred by previous "higher than expected" inflation reports and what has tended to follow the last few years (more of them)... But stay tuned for another inflation report coming this week.

The October consumer price index ("CPI") report comes out on Wednesday.

Wall Street's consensus forecast right now is for a 3.3% annual "core" inflation reading, which would make for three straight months with that number. And Bank of America economists expect that core CPI grew by 0.3% last month.

Again, that's a pace that's closer to 4% annualized growth than 2%. That's trouble, if it keeps going. But until "everyone" realizes that – and the consequences that might follow, such as higher rates again, not lower (and maybe Trump vs. Powell 2.0) – the market is ginned up.

Tipping our hat to the Stansberry's Investment Advisory team...

Since the election, there has been a lot of focus from the financial media on a few of the "winners." Bitcoin has surged to a fresh all-time high, Tesla (TSLA) has jumped nearly 40% since Election Day, and markets as a whole have moved in a straight line higher.

But one stock has seen an even larger move since the election. And the Stansberry's Investment Advisory team recommended it way back in June 2023.

We're talking about GEO Group (GEO), which is benefiting from the expectations of a Trump second term in the White House. Stansberry's Investment Advisory senior analyst Bryan Beach explained GEO's business back when our team first recommended the stock...

This company owns, leases, or manages 48 prisons and other secure facilities nationwide. In total, GEO has the capacity to hold 62,000 people in the U.S. against their will.

GEO doesn't just own any old prison system, though. It provides more than 40% of all beds in U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement ("ICE") detention centers. So the company is a play on President-elect Trump's tough-on-immigration policies.

Last week, GEO's stock soared more than 67% in response to the election result. And it was up another 4% today – closing at the highest level in more than seven years. Trump just yesterday said immigration hardliner Tom Homan would be his "border czar."

While not predicting the results of the election, Bryan highlighted last year that the stock could surge after November 5. As he wrote...

While we have no interest in venturing into political conjecture, it's also worth noting that prison stocks have historically performed much better during Republican presidential terms. And in the seven presidential election years since GEO went public in 1994, shares surged an average of 45% between Election Day and the inauguration of a Republican president. If you think there's a change coming in Washington, take note.

All in all, GEO Group's shares have more than tripled since the June 2023 issue of Stansberry's Investment Advisory. Congrats to Bryan and the rest of the team on a great call.

If you want to join them, you can...

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If you're looking to take your investing journey to the next level, this is a great way to do it and learn more about what we do at Stansberry Research.

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Elsewhere, bitcoin has blasted off...

Among the postelection moves, sentiment about the world's most popular cryptocurrency might be the most striking development.

Bitcoin's price has taken off since election night and has hit new highs over the past few days. Yesterday, it traded above $80,000 for the first time ever... and is up more than 8% in the past 24 hours to around $87,000.

As we've written frequently here, Trump is seen as much more favorable to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies than a Kamala Harris administration would've been. Trump has talked about a possible U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve, among other ideas.

And as we wrote just last week, the long-term setup for bitcoin is bullish, too...

Bitcoin has convincingly broken above the "downward channel" it had been trading in for much of this year. And we're entering the part of its every-four-year "post halving" timeline that has seen the largest gains, and tops, over the crypto's previous boom-and-bust cycles.

Will the run continue? Perhaps... but probably not in a straight line without volatility like the last few days. You may want to be somewhat wary of the euphoria.

Again, you should check out Greg's free video below for his technical outlook on the possible short-term direction of bitcoin (plus Ethereum) and stocks, too.

But over the longer run, Crypto Capital editor Eric Wade says Trump's election could kickstart the "biggest crypto bull market in history." With bitcoin already shattering its all-time high, Eric has eyes on six lesser-known cryptos with 1,000% upside that you'll want to buy now, he says.

Click here for details from Eric.

New 52-week highs (as of 11/8/24): American Financial (AFG), Atmus Filtration Technologies (ATMU), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Brown & Brown (BRO), Consol Energy (CEIX), Ciena (CIEN), Cencora (COR), Costco Wholesale (COST), Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 Fund (COWZ), Salesforce (CRM), Cintas (CTAS), Donaldson (DCI), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), Expedia (EXPE), Fair Isaac (FICO), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), Flutter Entertainment (FLUT), GEO Group (GEO), Generac (GNRC), W.W. Grainger (GWW), HealthEquity (HQY), iShares Convertible Bond Fund (ICVT), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense Fund (ITA), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Kenvue (KVUE), Lumentum (LITE), Cheniere Energy (LNG), Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY), Motorola Solutions (MSI), ONEOK (OKE), Oracle (ORCL), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Planet Fitness (PLNT), ProShares Ultra QQQ (QLD), Ryder System (R), RadNet (RDNT), Construction Partners (ROAD), Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), Snap-on (SNA), Spotify Technology (SPOT), SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value Fund (SPYV), ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO), Stryker (SYK), Toast (TOST), Texas Pacific Land (TPL), Trane Technologies (TT), Texas Instruments (TXN), Tyler Technologies (TYL), Visa (V), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Vanguard S&P 500 Fund (VOO), Vertiv (VRT), Vistra (VST), Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI), Zebra Technologies (ZBRA), Zoom Video Communications (ZM), and the short position in SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG).

In today's mailbag, feedback on Dan Ferris' Friday essay... Brett Eversole's Saturday Masters Series essay... and some more thoughts on the presidential-election outcome... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"Trees don't grow to the sky. Markets go up until they don't. What a balanced article by Dan Ferris..." – Subscriber Simon K.

"Mr. Ferris, Thank you for taking us a couple of steps back and clearing away the high of the euphoria we are in and showing us reality. We need that. Your writings I always look forward to. God bless you." – Stansberry Alliance member Tom O.

Brett, A very interesting article. But now with Trump coming into office I was thinking just the opposite. The U.S. oil spigots will be opened full blast, more fracking will commence and more drilling. Plus, the Saudi's and OPEC's oil likely won't be scaled back as they've dropped so low already for price improvement but they'll still need that income, especially as the oil price drops from the extra supply. Hence, I don't see the boom that you see. I think the price drop will overwhelm the profits from increased production activity. But maybe not, we shall see.

"BTW, we drove through Houston's huge refinery area last night to get to our favorite Tex-Mex restaurant in our visit from Dallas. And, the Texas Permian Basin rules!" – Stansberry Alliance member Dale D.

"It is positive that the United States has a leader who is concerned with the working people, who values the Constitution and traditions of our Country and stands up for the United States in regards to foreign relations.

"President elect Trump does not understand money! He is of the generation that believes that money can fix everything. The result of that belief is large debt, unsustainable debt.

"It would be possible to write paragraphs about my thoughts on [the] economy. A strong Country requires a strong currency. The study of previous empires that crumbled proves it. Interest rates need to be maintained at a level that prevent over speculation.

"A study of all the crippling financial panics experienced by this Republic since its inception are all somewhat similar in that easy money caused land speculation, over investing in rail, buying equities that had no strong business.

"The Fed raises rates when it need not. The Fed lowers rates at inappropriate times. The Fed was supposed to have been the mediator of speculation, since its beginning it seems to be a PARTNER in such activity. Well, who doesn't like money?

"We can print some up, who will notice, then we can print up a bit more, fool some more. This is similar to the abuse of alcohol; one drink, two? have one at lunch, maybe one to begin the day?" – Subscriber Alan C.

"So my thoughts on why Kamala Harris lost the election pretty much boils down to one main point. THE AMERICAN PEOPLE DON'T LIKE BEING LIED TO.

"Her three biggest whoppers were, The Border is Secure, Joe Biden is fine, he's engaged in meetings and is on top of everything (I'm paraphrasing), and when asked on the View about 'Would you do anything differently than Joe Biden during the past four years?', she said, 'There is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of, and I've been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact'...

"The American people called her on it and she paid the ultimate price of losing the election in a landslide. Had she been honest with her answers and vowed to change things she might still have lost but she could've at least looked at herself in the mirror and known she was honest and did the right thing.

"Now her best hope is that the American people have a short memory. Unfortunately, she'll probably be right." – Subscriber Kenneth S.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
November 11, 2024