The 100-Day Scoreboard

Wrapping up the first 100 days... A few outstanding items... 'Let's make a deal'... A change in sentiment... Things are still unclear in the economy... What to watch this week...

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The first 100 days are almost done...

Tomorrow, President Donald Trump's first 100 days of his second term in the White House will close out.

And what a time it has been. While the "presidential election cycle" typically features market volatility at the start of a new four-year term, this year has been more extreme than most.

What started off as a giddy market environment in November turned sour after Inauguration Day, primarily as tariff policies rattled stocks.

Take it from this headline from mainstream financial media outlet CNBC earlier today:

Trump's first 100 days are the worst for the stock market since Nixon

By the scoreboard, it's true. The S&P 500 Index is down about 8% since January 20. That's the worst performance for the U.S. benchmark index in the start of a president's four-year term since 1974, when U.S. stocks lost almost 12% after Gerald Ford replaced Richard Nixon as president… and the 9.9% loss at the start of Nixon's second presidential term in 1973, which preceded a recession that went through 1975, following policies designed to combat high inflation. (Raise your hand if you've heard this one before.)

But plenty else has happened this time around too... For example, the pace of inflation has cooled some... Trump's policies have cracked down on illegal immigration... Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency ("DOGE") ran roughshod through Washington, D.C... and Tesla's (TSLA) stock has tanked by 50%.

Musk says DOGE might reduce federal spending by $150 billion in fiscal year 2026 – which isn't nothing, but is well short of the $2 trillion goal he stated during Trump's campaign. (That said, there is a "DOGE, Phase II" story at the intersection of government and AI that you may want to know about.)

But there are a few outstanding items...

Most prominent is a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war, which Trump said on the campaign trail that he could get done within 24 hours of Inauguration Day should he win November's election. He seems motivated to do it, but ending the war hasn't been that easy. We wrote that when negotiations began, the "devil [was] in the details," and that has been the case.

Yesterday, before flying from New Jersey to Washington, Trump told reporters the war is "complicated" while reiterating he isn't happy with Russian President Vladimir Putin for attacks on Ukraine that have killed civilians while peace negotiations are ongoing.

Those comments came a day after Trump sat face-to-face with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in St. Peter's Basilica just before Pope Francis' funeral in what was described by both sides as a constructive 15-minute meeting.

The image of the two was quite a contrast from the yelling match they had in the Oval Office two months ago. Perhaps things are turning around, in more ways than one...

As we wrote last week, the White House sounds 'softer' on tariff threats...

The message has gone from "here's how much you all have been 'ripping us off' in the form of trade deficits" – with a shocking chart of high double-digit tariff rates on Liberation Day – to "let's make a deal."

What happens next remains to be seen, but the stock market has responded favorably. After Trump's Liberation Day announcement on April 2, the S&P 500 fell 19% from its previous all-time high on February 19 (and went into bear market territory on an intraday basis). But it's up 10% since April 8.

Trump announcing the "90-day pause" on "reciprocal" tariffs on April 9 sparked a change in sentiment, which has been followed by ideas of making trade deals with China (though that seems a distant outcome right now), India, Japan, and South Korea.

And what might be coming next could make for some "headline tailwinds," if all goes according to the White House's plans. As CBS News wrote today...

Congress returns Monday from a two-week recess with Republicans eyeing an ambitious schedule to move on the centerpiece legislation of President Trump's first-year agenda.

After both the House and Senate adopted a budget resolution that serves as a blueprint earlier this month, congressional committees are set to begin work this week on the massive plan key to implementing Mr. Trump's priorities on border security, defense, energy and taxes. The legislation aims to extend the 2017 tax cuts, along with authorizing additional tax cuts, while raising the debt ceiling by as much as $5 trillion. And GOP leaders have circled an ambitious goal to pass Mr. Trump's "one big, beautiful" bill by Memorial Day.

So get ready for more market-moving headlines as Washington turns its attention to the budget, tax cuts, and deregulation efforts. Just yesterday, Trump floated the idea of reducing or even eliminating income taxes for anyone making less than $200,000 per year.

As for the economy right now...

Things are still unclear. Here's the backdrop as I (Corey McLaughlin) see it...

First-quarter GDP growth is projected at negative 2.5%, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow tracker. That would be the worst quarter for GDP since the second quarter of 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

And tariffs – the threat and implementation – have distorted business to varying degrees.

Remember, 10% tariffs on all imports are still in place, as are targeted levies on specific countries (like Canada and Mexico) and materials (like aluminum and steel).

Companies and investors rushed to import goods before the tariffs went into effect. For example, you've likely heard about Apple (AAPL) chartering at least six cargo flights since March to ship approximately 1.5 million iPhones from India to the U.S. Some consumers have been "panic buying" items like cars, too, worrying that prices will go higher or supply will dry up.

It all sounds like the broken global supply-chain days of the pandemic, and we know how that ends... with high inflation. Yet despite the threat of high inflation and the tariff war, oil cartel OPEC's surprise oil-supply increase has sent global energy prices lower.

Meanwhile, importing gold has become wildly popular. The folks behind the Atlanta Fed GDP predictor, at what sounds like U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's request, have been publishing an "alternative" forecast accounting for gold imports and exports that shows first-quarter GDP "only" growing by negative 0.4%.

By that metric, U.S. investors imported so much gold in the first quarter that it's equivalent to 2% of GDP growth.

Can't blame anyone for that. It's the best hard currency we have. And the price has surged to new all-time highs and more than $3,300 per ounce. That's up 25% this year and more than 60% since the start of 2024 (when we were making a near-term bullish case for the precious metal).

Now, gold bars are on the cover of this week's Barron's, as Bear Traps Report editor (and former Stansberry Investor Hour guest) Larry McDonald noted on the social platform X over the weekend...

Based on the "magazine indicator," this may be a contrarian signal of a short-term top for gold's price, hence McDonald's "sign post?" caption. But the reasons for holding this "chaos" and centuries-old inflation hedge in your portfolio haven't changed. Anyone who has had gold in their portfolio over the past year-plus (and beyond) should be happy about it.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

What to watch this week: Inflation and jobs reports...

This week's round of formal economic data will give Wall Street plenty to stew on.

Earnings season continues, and we'll see a few substantial macroeconomic updates.

On Wednesday, Uncle Sam will release a key inflation gauge: the personal consumption expenditures ("PCE") index for March. This is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure. With the central bank gathering for its next two-day meeting next week, inflation numbers and the state of the economy in general will be taking center stage as folks try to guess what the Fed will do next.

New employment data also hits this week, which pertains to the other half of the Fed's official "dual mandate" of price stability and maximum employment.

Tomorrow, we'll see the latest number of job openings in the U.S... on Wednesday, payroll processor ADP publishes its latest monthly look at private jobs... and the big kahuna, April's "nonfarm payrolls" report with an updated unemployment rate, comes out Friday morning.

So onto the next 100 days we go. Our advice remains the same. Expect volatility and make sure you own high-quality stocks that can compound your wealth and gold. But also pay attention to your stop losses. And consider bitcoin as another alternative to the constant devaluation of the U.S. dollar. Finally, have cash ready for new buying opportunities when they inevitably come up.

New 52-week highs (as of 4/25/25): Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Enel (ENLAY), iShares MSCI Germany Fund (EWG), FirstCash (FCFS), Lonza (LZAGY), and VeriSign (VRSN).

In today's mailbag, more thoughts on tariffs. Keep 'em coming... As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"I am a Canadian small company that purchases products from the US, manufactures products and then ships them to the US, Canada and Europe. So far, the company is doing alright. I have found sources for most of what we need elsewhere in the world. Surprisingly, it is cheaper on some products, but it takes a little longer to get here. We can live with that, but we prefer to buy from the US.

"As difficult as it has been, I feel bad for my American friends who cannot get around the issue of higher tariffs because they are charged on the way into the country. I am hopeful that cooler heads will prevail and most of the issues will get resolved because no one will win this war. Sooner or later, our business will suffer too if our American clients cannot buy our product.

"I really miss my favourite California wines and whiskey from Kentucky. Now, that is one thing that must get fixed." – Subscriber Terrence C.

"As for other countries 'taking advantage' of us, I don't recall anyone forcing the insatiable U.S. consumer to buy stuff." – Subscriber Dennis G.

"I [am] sick of everyone around me crying and wringing their hands over tariffs and about losing money!!!!!!!! What a bunch of wimps! All I can say is 'BE PATIENT!'

"I think President Trump should raise the tariffs on China to 400%, as they have been grifting the United States for over 40 years! 400% would crush the CCP once and for all! We can withstand it; they cannot! This country has [too] many crybabies worrying about money.

"I am not worried in the least about my portfolio. China is already reeling from the tariffs so far and lying about their GDP. They are being crushed compared to us!" – Subscriber John R.

"Why don't we just ask AI if tariffs are good or bad and be done with it?" – Subscriber John S.

Corey McLaughlin comment: Keep your notes coming everyone. I nodded, smiled, and laughed out loud at these.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
April 28, 2025