The Only Certainty

The T-word... A source of uncertainty... Energy companies air concerns... Gold keeps winning... Instead of running for the hills... Don't miss Marc Chaikin's free presentation tonight...

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The tariff effect...

We've discussed tariffs in concept here a lot – and how a lot of investors appear to be responding to them with a "sell first and ask questions later" mentality. You could argue the primary reason is all the uncertainty about tariffs...

What number or nation will you hear about next from the White House? Who or what sector will be deemed "exceptions"? Will April 2 usher in reciprocal tariffs or leniency? Or something in between?

As one American energy exploration and production executive wrote, "The only certainty right now is uncertainty."

Said another, "I have never felt more uncertainty about our business in my entire 40-plus-year career."

And many mentioned the T-word as a reason, like this next example...

The administration's tariffs immediately increased the cost of our casing and tubing by 25 percent even though inventory costs our pipe brokers less. U.S. tubular manufacturers immediately raised their prices to reflect the anticipated tariffs on steel.

These comments were all published yesterday in a quarterly survey of American energy companies from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas... and we're not cherry-picking responses. The Dallas Fed shared 25 responses in total (read them for yourself here), and all were along the same lines: fretting about uncertainty related to new White House policy.

I (Corey McLaughlin) bring this up not to make a political statement or debate the potential medium- and long-term effects of President Donald Trump's trade policies. My point is to show a concrete example of why, in the short term, an unclear picture on tariffs is reasonably stoking market volatility...

Late yesterday, Trump announced that 25% tariffs on "all cars that are not made in the United States" will go into effect on April 2... While that became official after markets closed, the announcement of an announcement helped to turn markets lower, as we wrote yesterday...

Today, U.S. automaker stocks generally fell, with General Motors (GM) down roughly 7% while Ford Motor (F) lost almost 4%. And while Tesla (TSLA) was up as much as 7% this morning, it finished the day basically flat.

This isn't a single-sector story, though...

In the case of energy companies, tariffs – plus the promise of policies designed to deliver cheaper prices – have others majorly concerned, too... While consumers will welcome lower energy prices, suppliers won't.

One respondent to the Dallas Fed survey wrote...

"Drill, baby, drill," does not work with $50 per barrel oil. Rigs will get dropped, employment in the oil industry will decrease, and U.S. oil production will decline as it did during COVID-19.

That's not to say that, over the long run, American energy won't still be incredibly in demand. I will note that despite these responses, rising costs, and a souring outlook, the same survey also reported slightly higher oil and gas sector activity in the first quarter of 2025. So it's not all gloomy.

In fact, the market fear today could make for a strong entry point for the right investments in the sector. (For instance, True Wealth subscribers were just updated on editor Brett Eversole's "No. 1 Energy Investment to Buy Right Now" earlier this week.)

Here's another example...

Our Stansberry's Investment Advisory team recommended a Permian Basin-based company in January... which would actually highly benefit from more drilling and access to the lowest-cost gas in North America. (This stock is up about 18% since the recommendation and slightly over our team's recommended buy-up-to price, but it's worth keeping an eye on.)

However, the uncertain macroeconomic backdrop also means companies – across many sectors – are considering various action plans today because of future policies they're not sure about. Said one in the survey...

We are approaching this economic cycle with heightened capital discipline and a focus on long-term resilience. I don't believe the tariffs will have a significant effect on drilling and completion plans for 2025, although I would imagine most managers are developing contingency plans for the potential effects of deals (Russia-Ukraine deal, Gaza-Israel-Iran deal) on global crude or natural gas flows. Now these contingency plans probably have more downside price risk baked in than initial drilling plans did for 2025.

Now, this outlook sounds like it's from a business I'd be inclined to be an investor in – "heightened capital discipline" being the key words. But the point is this explanation of why tariff policies have created uncertainty in the market.

For the second straight day, all of the U.S. major stock indexes were lower. The U.S. benchmark S&P 500 Index was 0.3% lower. Once again, the defensive sector of "consumer staples" was the biggest gainer of the day, up almost 1%. The S&P 500 is down about 3% for 2025.

Another round of tariff announcements is due April 2, so some more jitters or surprise headlines could show up in the market until then... or after, depending on what policies are rolled out. On the other hand, more clarity could boost sentiment, but we haven't seen that yet.

Gold keeps doing its thing...

In the meantime, the "chaos hedge" of gold made another new all-time high today above $3,050. If you're looking to put some cash to work, DailyWealth Trader editor Chris Igou made a compelling case for gold to subscribers today.

Gold is up 15% so far this year, was up 27% last year, and gained 26% from a September 2022 low through the end of 2023. And DailyWealth Trader subscribers who followed Chris' recommendations are up 83% in one gold position and 42% in a gold-stock trade. But Chris shared several signals for his thesis that gold's bull run is far from finished...

We're more than two years into this boom. Anyone who's invested in the space has made good gains. But here's the thing... Not many folks were taking advantage of this rally.

They stayed on the sidelines for the bulk of the move. And now, they're starting to play catch-up.

As we'll show today, this attention to gold doesn't the mean the crowd is "all in." But it does set the stage for more gains in the coming months... and even years.

Stansberry Alliance members and DailyWealth Trader subscribers can get all the details here, including why Chris' two gold recommendations are still buys today.

It's not a 'fabulous time,' but...

Stansberry's Investment Advisory lead editor Whitney Tilson also cited this Dallas Fed survey in his free daily newsletter today. Adding to that, he shared a recent survey showing that corporate chief financial officers are also pessimistic... 60% of them expect a recession in the second half of 2025.

As Whitney continued...

Consumers are pessimistic as well. Take a look at the chart from [social platform X] from Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab (the blue line indicates consumers who think business conditions will get better in the next six months... while the yellow-orange line indicates those who think conditions will get worse):

However, note the past two times the yellow-orange line spiked: during the COVID-19 crash in early 2020 and the big market decline in 2022. Both were fabulous times to buy stocks.

I don't think today is a "fabulous time" to buy in general... but as I've written many times this year, I'm not running for the hills either.

I think the betting markets are correct that we'll likely (albeit slightly) avoid a recession this year – the latest odds from Polymarket stand at a less than 40% chance.

Here's what I know... This isn't the type of environment where you can or should buy just anything and expect it to do well for you. It pays to be picky about the individual securities you're investing in.

And, broadly, as we've been saying, while the recent correction in the S&P 500 might be closer to its end than beginning... it might not be finished yet either. Another leg lower is entirely possible.

That energy-business leader is right, of course... The only certainty is uncertainty. But it's not time to panic, either... You'll want to have an investing plan, one that aligns with your goals and risk tolerance.

Stay tuned to our editors and analysts' recommendations... and our friends', too.

Speaking of that, in just a few hours...

Don't forget that Marc Chaikin, founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics, is debuting a brand-new presentation at 8 p.m. Eastern time tonight.

We expect him to discuss his Power Gauge system, of course... This system is essentially a culmination of Marc's five-plus decades of professional investing experience... and is designed to give Main Street investors the type of edge Wall Street has traditionally had.

Marc's also going to talk about his latest market outlook... and precisely why you want a plan – an "emergency beacon" – to navigate today's challenging, volatile market. As we said last week...

Even with big hedge funds on a selling spree, top tech companies losing billions in value, and President Trump making announcements that move the market every other day, Marc says you can make several moves in the next 90 days to deliver potential double-digit gains.

You just have to know where to look – and what areas of the market to avoid.

Tonight, Marc will explain all the details. He's also going to give away two free recommendations... one stock to buy and one exchange-traded fund to avoid at all costs. You'll also hear about a special report he put together for Stansberry Research subscribers.

Click here to sign up for this free event now to make sure you don't miss anything.

New 52-week highs (as of 3/26/25): Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Brown & Brown (BRO), Cencora (COR), Chevron (CVX), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), VeriSign (VRSN), and W.R. Berkley (WRB).

In today's mailbag, another view of the recent market volatility... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"The reason the market is both down and volatile is that people 'see' and analyze Trump's numerous initiatives as separate pieces. Seen and analyzed in their totality, everything the President is doing is completely consistent and directionally positive for individuals, businesses, and the markets.

"It would be a quite lengthy explanation to connect and align all the pieces of the puzzle (Trump's numerous initiatives). So I'll just leave it at that." – Subscriber Russell L.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
March 27, 2025