The Threat Game
The president-elect eyes the BRICS nations... 'Say goodbye'... Threats and questions... The Nasdaq and S&P 500 trade at new highs... A big week for labor-market data... The secrets of another 'Mar-a-Lago Man'...
Trump versus BRICS...
Over the weekend, President-elect Donald Trump threatened more tariffs on foreign countries. This time, the target was the BRICS nations...
BRICS stands for a group of nations – with Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa uniting as the first five members in 2009 and 2010 – with a common interest of pursuing an alternative to the U.S.-dollar-dominated global economy.
Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates are now a part of the group as well. As we wrote in October, representatives of those countries and more gathered in Russia for a three-day meeting of the so-called "BRICS Plus" nations.
As I (Corey McLaughlin) wrote then, one of the most notable things to come out of this summit was a joint declaration from the BRICS nations with what sounded like a resolve to substantially change a global system in which the dollar makes up nearly 60%of the world's foreign exchange reserves and is still dominant in the oil trade.
On the last day of the summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a speech about the West's "perverse methods and approaches" – like the sanctions against Russia in response to the war in Ukraine.
A statement from the BRICS nations noted the benefits of "faster, low-cost, more efficient, transparent, safe and inclusive cross-border payment instruments built upon the principle of minimizing trade barriers and non-discriminatory access."
And we wrote in response in our October 31 edition...
[I] don't know about you... but the description of a non-dollar currency that's "faster," "transparent," "cross border," and "built upon the principle of minimizing trade barriers..." among the BRICS nations sounds a lot like the concept of cryptocurrency to me.
I ran this idea past Crypto Capital editor Eric Wade today. He told me: "Exactly."
Trump is apparently listening closely to the BRICS nations, too. In a post on his Truth Social platform on Saturday, the president-elect wrote...
We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy.
This is another negotiating tactic, perhaps, that just might work to elicit concessions from Russia, China, or the other countries on other subjects. But when it comes to the markets, it also raises questions about what will happen over the next four years.
Is the U.S. really going to place 100% tariffs on Chinese goods? Will it really not accept products from India? It's unlikely, but even a fraction of the threat becoming a reality could change the backdrop of the American economy... and the calculus for businesses that have large footprints in the BRICS nations... along with the demand picture for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
We'll stay tuned.
Today, the markets were 'mixed'...
The major U.S. indexes were split, but with a bullish flair.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up about 1% and traded at a new all-time high. The benchmark S&P 500 Index gained slightly to another new high as well, while the Russell 2000 Index was down 0.1% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 0.3%.
The tech and consumer-discretionary sectors of the S&P 500 were up the most. The 10-year Treasury yield edged slightly higher, but still remains in a downtrend since about a week after the U.S. presidential election.
What to watch this week...
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will make an appearance on Wednesday at the New York Times' DealBook Summit. It's likely to generate some headlines and discussion, but overall, this is the week for labor market data...
Tomorrow brings a look at job openings in the U.S. covering October. On Wednesday, payment processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will publish its latest private-payrolls report for November.
On Thursday morning, per usual each week, the latest initial jobless claims numbers will be released.
Then, on Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS") will come out with its latest "nonfarm payrolls" report for November. This includes an updated unemployment rate that will be scrutinized closely.
October's report showed a 4.1% unemployment rate – flat compared with the month prior. That was after two months of declines from 4.3% in July. The BLS said only 12,000 jobs were added in October.
As we reported last month, state data later showed that most of October's slowdown in new jobs was due to impacts of hurricanes in the Southeast and the Boeing (BA) labor strike. Friday's report covering November should be a more "normal" one.
If the unemployment rate stays the same or resumes falling – which it could, based on trends we've seen in initial claims over the past few weeks – it would indicate that the labor market is doing just fine (even with inflation picking up, which we've reported on here and here). The Fed might use this as more evidence against further interest rate cuts.
Alternatively, a weak report would be fodder for additional rate cuts from the Fed, though that doesn't change the fact that the pace of inflation has accelerated over the past few months.
Finally, speaking of Trump...
We have another "Mar-a-Lago Man" to introduce to you...
This man went broke about 17 years ago and had to sell his house and move in with his in-laws. He recovered and rebuilt an eight-figure fortune far faster than he ever imagined possible.
He went on to serve as an adviser to Trump during his last term... and he has mastered the largest asset class in the world.
This Thursday, in a free event, he is going to share what nearly 30 billionaires and multimillionaires have taught him about wealth... including the strange places they keep some of their most prized assets... and the insights he has gained from his network of ultra-wealthy contacts. It's something that anyone can put to work.
He's also going to share his top move to make before the Trump administration takes over in 2025. Tune in on Thursday at 10 a.m. Eastern time to hear the full story. Again, the event is free. We just ask that you register in advance, so you don't miss anything.
You can find more details and sign up here.
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One quick housekeeping note... There is no Diamond's Edge video today. Look for Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond to return with that next week.
In today's mailbag, feedback on last Wednesday's Digest, which covered potential Trump tax plans, government spending, and the federal debt... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"The deficit is first, and always, a spending problem. Since 1946 federal revenues have averaged only 16.8% of GDP each year, with a maximum of 19.8% and a minimum of 13.2%, with most years between 15.5% and 18%. This is during the 90% marginal rates in the 50s, the Reagan cuts, the Bush cuts and the Trump cuts. Tax cuts and tax hikes have little, if any, long term effect on government revenues. There are short term effects with one to two years as taxpayers adjust to the new rules, but the long-term effects are nearly insignificant.
"In 2023 (the last year I have figures, from the Fed), revenues were 16%, slightly below average.
"Conversely, Federal expenditures over this time period have averaged 19.3%, giving us an average deficit of 2.5% of GDP. Clearly spending is the driver of the deficits and not spending.
"As a small government conservative I was disappointed with Trump's spending, but Trump's average spending was 20.3% of GDP in non-Covid years and 22.9% average over all 4 years (with 2020 being 30.7% of GDP). In comparison [George W. Bush] averaged 18.9% of GDP, Obama 21.6% of GDP, and Biden, to date, 25% of GDP.
"We don't have a taxing problem. We have a spending problem. To cure the deficit we need to reduce the deficit to under the rate of GDP growth (and preferably balance the budget) and grow the economy faster. Everything else is second and third order. We need regular 3-4% GDP growth to reduce interest payments as a percent of spending and of GDP." – Subscriber Mark P.
"Trump has everyone worried about immense tariffs. Perfect negotiating. Canada and Mexico will agree to seal the border before January 20, and those tariffs will be off the table. China will make some concessions later. Cutting the size of a wasteful government will save this country. We have no choice. Thank God Trump is there now, because with anyone else, it would be business as usual. It's amazing to me that people don't think we are in deep trouble. I know Porter does. Also, a 10-year extension of the tax cuts won't cost $4 trillion. His previous tax cuts increased revenue, and these, if enacted, will too." – Subscriber Tom F.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
December 2, 2024