True curiosity is valuable... Most people don't ask questions... 300-plus episodes of the Stansberry Investor Hour... Wisdom from our guests... 'A great time to be alive'... 'A game of knowledge'...
Everyone has a story...
I (Corey McLaughlin) learned this piece of wisdom a long time ago from a good mentor... People have things going on in their lives that might be – and often are – completely different from what your perception might be.
The guy who always seems happy might face the challenge of a terribly ill child at home. The woman who is honking behind you the instant a traffic light turns from red to green might be going into labor.
Someone who looks "rich" may actually be "poor," or vice versa... Then again, Uncle Paul across the Thanksgiving table might just have $500 riding on a Detroit Lions victory. Again. Some things might be exactly what you think.
But my point is, if you don't simply assume you "know" based on appearances and instead ask people what's going on in their minds and lives with true curiosity, you might get real answers that could be surprising and even enlightening.
Most people don't ask questions...
Fortunately, we get to do that a lot around here at Stansberry Research...
One of the things I have done over the last year is join my colleague Dan Ferris on the Stansberry Investor Hour podcast. For about five years, Dan has asked hundreds of smart investors probably thousands of questions about even more subjects and ideas...
Just today, we recorded a great interview with Jared Dillian, the editor of the Daily Dirtnap newsletter. Jared used to work for Lehman Brothers and has a new book coming out next year, No Worries, about personal finance. Stay tuned next week for the conversation.
(Subscribe to our Stansberry Research YouTube page or sign up at InvestorHour.com to get instant access, or you can find the Investor Hour wherever you get your podcasts.)
At the end of every interview, no matter who the guest is or what they do (hedge-fund manager or author) or what their interest is (emerging markets or technical analysis), Dan always asks the same simple question...
If you could leave our listeners with a single thought today, what would it be?
And often, the answers might surprise you...
Take the episode that aired this week, in which Dan interviewed Stansberry Research founder Porter Stansberry. A lot of folks likely know Porter for his market warnings and for making correct predictions like the failures of Freddie Mae, Fannie Mac, and General Motors over the years.
The title of the episode leans toward that theme, I'd say...
But I want to share that when Dan asked Porter what single thought he wanted to leave listeners with, Porter shared a perhaps stunningly optimistic view. He said...
It's a really, really great time to be alive. If you focus on all the little short-term problems in the credit markets or the stock markets or whatever, you're missing the big picture, which is that in the last 20 years, our lives have gotten immeasurably better.
It's easier to travel. It's easier to make money. It's easier to communicate. Just think about having point-by-point GPS instructions on your phone. Medicine has gotten a lot better. I'm not saying the hospital care has. But it's a great time to be alive.
In general, most investors make the mistake of not being optimistic enough. Despite all the problems, the resolutions are always more powerful than the reckonings. And that's how we continue to progress, despite all the stupid wars we get into, despite all of the dumb financial bubbles that occur, despite all the problems in our society...
We do a lot of dumb things, but we eventually course-correct. And those improvements and those innovations in time are far more valuable than the problems that occur along the way.
How's that for a hearty, perhaps unexpected message heading into the holiday season? Be sure to check out the full episode for much more, including Porter's updated take on the economy and stock market and a frank conversation about his return from "retirement."
Here is some more wisdom from our guests...
Chaikin Analytics founder Marc Chaikin, a Wall Street legend, joined us a few weeks ago and sounded a similar positive message. He said in response to Dan's last question...
"Love thy neighbor" and dialogue. We're in a really tough time in America right now where everything is so polarized. And no matter how much money you make in the market, if you can't have a Thanksgiving dinner with discourse because people don't talk to each other in the same family, it's not worth it.
Geopolitical strategist and author Peter Zeihan talked about the influence of China, the world's second-largest economy, which of course is front and center in many economic talks today...
China has spent the last 40 years becoming the workshop of the world, $35 trillion in sunk costs for the industrial plant. We don't move on from that overnight. We don't need to relocate the whole $35 trillion, but we do need to double the size of the industrial plant in North America.
That is simultaneously the greatest pulse of inflation in our history and the greatest prospects for economic growth in our history. And doing that buildup – how we do that buildup, how we prioritize, how we pay for it, how we do it in a period of restricted labor supplies – that is going to define the economics of North America of the next 30 years, and it's going to define the human condition for the remainder of this century.
So again, every day that China lasts is a gift because it makes that adjustment process that much less painful and dramatic.
Michael Green, the chief strategist and portfolio manager of Simplify Asset Management, surprised Dan with what he called a "fantastic answer" that some might find controversial. Green said...
Remember that the government is us. And it's going to do what we want it to do. And so if we actually tell the government that the thing we care most about is the security of our old people, which by and large has been our voting pattern for the past 100 years, we're going to get young people [who] vote to become old with as few resources individually as they possibly can have. They want to rely on that government for them.
That means that we see things that we're seeing in our society, falling fertility rates, children staying at home longer, and not more actively participating... educational periods expanding, and people taking on significant amounts of debt, in order to avoid starting their lives, right?
This is all actually by choice. And as a society, I would argue that we need to recommit ourselves to youth.
If there's one thing that I would encourage people – and I know the demographic of the listener base is inevitably skewed older – anytime you introduce the idea of financial matters, each of us individually, and I'm certainly there as well, but each of us individually really needs to stop and think, what did I do to make the world a better place for children today?
And if you just do that every single day, if we actually incorporate that into our voting patterns, if we actually incorporate that into our behaviors, I'm willing to bet that 90% of society's problems disappear.
Joel Litman, founder of our corporate affiliate Altimetry and a long-term bull on the U.S. in general, emphasized his concern about the economy in 2024 and the next few years. As he explained at the end of his interview...
When you look at the long-term data, I have never been so bullish about the long-term U.S. economy and U.S. equities. And at the same time, I have never been so bearish about U.S. equities in the short term with the exception of maybe 2008. Short term – that could be one year, that could be three years – I'd be deeply concerned about any passive investments in U.S. equities.
Harris "Kuppy" Kupperman, the founder and chief investment officer of Praetorian Capital Management – one of Dan's favorite voices in market commentary – offered this piece of perspective to remember as well...
Be very, very cynical and skeptical of everything. Everyone's trying to sell you something. And even if you don't think they're trying to sell you something, they are. Everyone has an agenda. And just be cynical. Read everything there is to read. Learn it, everything there is. This is a game of knowledge. Whoever knows more makes the money.
These are just a few lessons from the past few weeks alone that you might find apply to your own investing goals. There are more than 300 episodes of the Investor Hour you can go through to find hundreds more... and we put together a new one every week.
With Thanksgiving tomorrow, these types of lessons feel timely...
At many dinner tables, if family and friends even gather around them, there's often an underlying tension in the air or expectation of what so-and-so is thinking or doing or what they'll say. (Or maybe this is just me projecting.)
Sometimes, you hear and see exactly what you'd expect. But sometimes, no matter how well you think you might know a person, you might get a fresh perspective from a guest or host and be introduced to an idea you never thought about but might be useful for you.
If you're lucky, you might even glean some unexpected wisdom. Like this simple one: Everyone has a story.
New 52-week highs (as of 11/21/23): CyberArk Software (CYBR), ICON (ICLR), Ingersoll Rand (IR), Linde (LIN), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Parker-Hannifin (PH), Qualys (QLYS), Roper Technologies (ROP), Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U-U.TO), and Visa (V).
One quick housekeeping note before we get to the mailbag: Our offices are closed tomorrow and Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday. You'll get our latest Masters Series essays in your inbox this weekend, and we'll pick up our regular fare on Monday.
In today's mailbag, feedback on yesterday's edition, including a response to a subscriber comment and thoughts about deflation... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Well said, Michael U. [in yesterday's mail]. The Fed is more about politics than anything else. It just provides a buffer between what goes on in our central government and the real economy. As long as they push this crap that everything is going to be fine, that the Fed has the situation under control and the public buys into it, then their job is done.
"Unfortunately, anyone with any common sense knows differently. There are signs everywhere now that the future of the U.S. economy is in for a rude awakening. We now have crazy debt levels, two wars to finance, and crazy politicians with their feet on the spending pedals. How can anything go wrong?" – Subscriber John M.
"It should be kept in mind that manufacturers and producers don't have to give back 100% of the reduced cost of materials to the retailers, and the retailers don't have to give back 100% of their reduced costs for the goods they sell to the consumer.
"I remember decades ago when the price of sugar went ballistic. The cost of a candy bar went up quite a bit, however, after the price of sugar came back down the price of a candy bar didn't. Either the producers or the retailers or a combination of the two didn't pass along the savings they realized.
"This phenomenon occurred for many retail items at the time, and I suggest the same thing could happen this time if costs of production fall, therefore not impacting retailers' sales numbers as much as might be expected." – Subscriber Gary S.
Happy Thanksgiving,
Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
November 22, 2023
Join for free. See how over a million people are taking control of their wealth…
