Bet on What Won't Change

The shutdown blues... More 'not good' labor market news... What this means for stocks... Bet on things that won't change... Some opportunities in health care...

The shutdown blues...

Our dear leaders in Washington just can't get out of their own – or our – way...

So at 12:01 this morning, the federal government partially shut down.

Now, many agencies aren't working, and hundreds of thousands of workers face possible furloughs. That might sound nice for a day or two, but it won't when paychecks don't hit bank accounts in a week or two.

However, we're confident that Republicans and Democrats will eventually agree to spend other people's money again.

We saw some reports signaling that today, even amid the continued posturing from Republicans about the idea of laying off federal workers, and Democrat leaders' insistence on extending Obamacare tax credits as part of a funding resolution. From CBS News...

A bipartisan group of senators, swelling at one point to more than a dozen, gathered on the Senate floor during votes as some senators began looking for a path out of the shutdown.

Sen. Mike Rounds, a South Dakota Republican who was among the gaggle, told reporters that the discussion concerned both policy and process, saying any movement "requires, first of all, to get the government open again."

The proposal that's on the table is 45 days, and then we start working on the issues that divide us," Rounds said.

And NBC News reported...

Sens. Peter Welch, D-Vt., and Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., addressed the conversation Republicans and Democrats were seen having on the senate floor earlier this afternoon.

"There is a lot of bipartisan hope that we can make this shutdown as short and costless as possible," Blumenthal said.

We know this won't be "costless" at all, and the situation will assuredly end with more spending approved... But in the meantime today, the market wobbled over uncertainty about government operations and the economy in general.

Stocks opened lower but pushed higher in the afternoon. Bond yields fell some.

Notably, "chaos hedge" gold traded higher – hitting another fresh record today. Bitcoin also acted like a "safe haven" asset... or at least an alternative to political dysfunction, as it was essentially designed to be. The world's most popular cryptocurrency was up another 2%-plus today to more than $117,000.

More 'not good' news...

Part of today's market action can be chalked up to another piece of sour labor market data, which bolsters the idea of more Federal Reserve rate cuts to come but also increasingly signals risks in the broad economy.

This morning, payroll processor ADP released its private payrolls report covering September activity. It was... not good.

As recent Stansberry Investor Hour guest Chris Irons wrote today to his Quoth the Raven subscribers...

This morning's ADP report was, in technical terms, a faceplant.

Private companies shed 32,000 jobs in September – the biggest drop since March 2023. Economists, bless their hearts, were expecting a gain of 45,000. To make it worse, August was revised from a "healthy" 54,000 gain to a loss of 3,000.

Here we are... with the worst labor market performance in the private sector in two-and-a-half years.

The "why" – when it comes to the market – isn't the most important thing, though you'll hear a lot of talk about how tariffs and/or immigration policies are making an impact.

It's the "what" that's more important. The losses last month were spread across most sectors. Only increases in education jobs (with schools reopening) and the recession-proof health care sector made the headline numbers look not as bad.

What this means for stocks...

While we can't predict the future, we may be nearing a point where the market decides rate cuts aren't the solution to every problem. Investors may start weighing the state of the labor market more seriously... and the risks that come along with it.

You see, a weakening jobs market is cause for concern about consumer spending and companies' earnings, among other things.

That's why Stansberry Research senior analyst Mike Barrett wrote today in his weekly Select Value Opportunities update that he's "staying long, but growing cautious."

Mike ticked off all the hurdles the market has been clearing lately, but also the risks – like a worsening labor market – that could be a catalyst for stocks moving "sharply lower."

Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond also shared an important game plan update with his subscribers today, explaining that the technical setup for the S&P 500 Index suggests a possible "correction" in late October.

Now, we're still in a bull market – and the major U.S. indexes are at or near all-time highs – but it doesn't look like an ideal time to aggressively put new money to work. That said, we're not saying you should go "all out" of stocks if you're in this for the long term.

Bet on things that will never change...

When looking at the investing landscape today (and seeing the health care sector of the S&P 500 up the most, roughly 3%, for a second straight day), I (Corey McLaughlin) am reminded of the power of betting on "something that will never change."

That is, investing in long-term trends that will have appeal or companies or products that will be in demand, no matter what else is going on in the world or economy. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos once explained why this is so important...

I very frequently get the question: "What's going to change in the next 10 years?" That's a very interesting question.

I almost never get the question: "What's not going to change in the next 10 years?" And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two.

You can build a business strategy around the things that are stable in time. In our retail business, we know that customers want low prices, and I know that's going to be true 10 years from now. They want fast delivery; they want vast selection.

It's impossible to imagine a future 10 years from now where a customer comes up and says, "Jeff, I love Amazon, I just wish the prices were a little higher." Or, "I love Amazon, I just wish you'd deliver a little slower." Impossible.

So we know the energy we put into these things today will still be paying off dividends for our customers 10 years from now. When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it.

In an essay about this concept (written nearly 10 years ago), financial writer and past Stansberry Research Conference presenter Morgan Housel published a list of "timeless strategies" that "every sustainable business is accompanied by."

He listed things like providing "lower prices... faster solutions to problems... greater control over your time... [and] added comfort." A company like Amazon does all of them.

We always recommend owning shares of high-quality businesses. But with the constant devaluing of the U.S. dollar and politicians' willingness – and ability – to kick cans of debt down the road, we also urge you to own some "hard assets" like gold, silver, real estate, and farmland.

The bull case for bitcoin is similar, as our Crypto Capital editor Eric Wade shared in a recent weekly video update to subscribers about the market having a clear vote of no confidence in fiat currencies lately...

If gold is flashing inflation warnings, then crypto, especially bitcoin, is positioned to benefit even more. Remember, bitcoin is hard money. Scarce, decentralized, and resistant to the same policy mistakes that are weighing on the dollar.

Then there's health care...

Even in a world where AI becomes pervasive or where political polarization never ends, our innate (human) desire for ourselves and our families and friends to be healthy won't change. So health care stocks are also worth a look right now.

Some worthy opportunities in health care...

Yesterday, we wrote about technological breakthroughs radically changing how we detect and treat diseases like Alzheimer's... and we pointed to Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig and his team's research about the companies well positioned to profit from these advancements and deliver shareholder returns.

Yesterday, Stansberry Venture Technology editor Dave Lashmet published his latest monthly issue and recommended a company developing a drug that he believes could be worth $100 billion per year, creating big upside potential for shareholders. As Dave wrote...

I believe we're about to see the world's first trillion-dollar drug.

It's a bold call, Dave admits. This drug hasn't won approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") yet. It has no sales, backlog of orders, or even a brand name yet. "I realize I'm making a wildly optimistic claim," Dave says, but "it all comes down to economics."

Venture Technology subscribers can get all the details and read the latest issue here. It also includes an update on all the medical stocks in the model portfolio.

And here's one more pick under the health care umbrella...

Stansberry Research senior analyst Gabe Marshank published an exclusive recommendation for Stansberry Alliance members just last week.

This small company has the potential to save lives every year on a scale that's hard to imagine. And with shares trading well below their actual value due to a spinoff, investors have a chance to get in on a potential triple-digit winner, Gabe says. Alliance members can check out the full analysis here.

Marc Chaikin, founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics and a 50-year Wall Street veteran, joins Dan Ferris and me on this week's Stansberry Investor Hour. We discuss what's happening with the bond market, three factors that are driving the stock market, and which companies and sectors will be quiet winners of the AI boom.

Click here to watch the full interview now... Subscribe to our YouTube page to watch more episodes, and listen to the entire Stansberry Investor Hour podcast at InvestorHour.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

Marc is also warning that today's market euphoria won't last... and there could be a major short-term market shift this week. However, you don't have to feel the full force of the fallout. With Marc's Power Gauge system, you can lock in the quickest, highest-possible gains without taking unnecessary risk. Get the details here.

New 52-week highs (as of 9/30/25): ABB (ABBNY), AbbVie (ABBV), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Alamos Gold (AGI), ASML (ASML), BAE Systems (BAESY), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), BWX Technologies (BWXT), Ciena (CIEN), Cencora (COR), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), EnerSys (ENS), iShares MSCI Spain Fund (EWP), FirstCash (FCFS), SPDR Euro STOXX 50 Fund (FEZ), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), Franco-Nevada (FNV), VanEck Gold Miners Fund (GDX), VanEck Junior Gold Miners Fund (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense Fund (ITA), Kinross Gold (KGC), L3Harris Technologies (LHX), Grand Canyon Education (LOPE), Monster Beverage (MNST), New Gold (NGD), OR Royalties (OR), Ormat Technologies (ORA), Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), Royal Gold (RGLD), Seabridge Gold (SA), Sandstorm Gold (SAND), SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value Fund (SPYV), ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL), ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (USD), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), and W.R. Berkley (WRB).

Another quiet mail day... What's on your mind? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. One reminder: We can't provide individual investment advice, but we'll do our best to answer what we can, and we read every note.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
October 1, 2025