Better Late Than Wrong

Hearing from an investing legend... Focus on what you can control... The system that spotted monster gains before Trump's moves... The latest in the Fed fight... Eric Wade answers some big crypto questions... Can bitcoin be changed overnight?...

First, if you missed our friend Marc Chaikin's free presentation today...

The good news is, you can watch a replay right here.

Simply put, Marc is one of my (Corey McLaughlin's) favorite people to listen to talk about the market. He's nothing short of a Wall Street legend. I always learn something...

And this morning, the 50-year-plus investing pro and founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics sat down to cover a variety of questions sent in from readers.

Subjects covered included the dwindling value of the U.S. dollar (and why it means you must own stocks)... the impact of tariffs (and the uncertainty around them – Marc said to "focus on what you can control" rather than reading the headlines)... where Marc thinks we are in the AI-adoption cycle (and if we're near a dot-com-bubble-like bust)... and what's going on with the Federal Reserve (more on that in a moment).

Finally, Marc explained how he takes the "guesswork" out of stock analysis with his Power Gauge system.

Marc's system considers 20 different fundamental and technical factors on thousands of stocks. He shared a few stocks that his system turned bullish on before they benefited from President Donald Trump's executive orders this year, like deep-sea miner The Metals Company (TMC).

Marc's system spotted a bullish turn in TMC in April before it gained 310% after news about deregulation in its industry.

It was a similar story with Canada-based lithium and uranium business Foremost Clean Energy (FMST). It gained more than 140% earlier this year.

Marc didn't initially know "why" the stocks were turning bullish (it turned out to be moves from the White House). The important thing is that if you spotted the change, then these were tremendous opportunities.

Marc closed his presentation this morning by offering an amazing chance to "test drive" three of his highest-level investing services for yourself. You can get all of the details here.

Turning to the Federal Reserve...

Marc offered his take on the big question in the financial media and Trump's Truth Social account these days: Will there be an interest-rate cut sometime soon? Marc said...

I think [Fed Chair] Jerome Powell would rather be too late than wrong. Now, that's not to say we won't get a cut this year [but] I don't think we'll see Powell cut rates by 3% as Trump has called for...

As Marc explained, Powell is a student of history and doesn't want to repeat the Fed's mistakes from the 1970s when then-Presidents Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter each pressured the central bank to lower interest rates... which also juiced inflation.

That doesn't stop today's low-interest pressure campaign from continuing...

Powell might be willing to hold the line on big rate cuts until his term ends in May, but other voting members of the Fed could fall by the wayside.

As we reported on August 4, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler is stepping down from her position to reportedly take a job as a professor at Georgetown University. The timing was fishy, to say the least. Kugler had been in favor of keeping interest rates higher.

Economist Stephen Miran, the chair of the White House's Council of Economic Advisers and the guy who made the phrase "Mar-a-Lago Accord" famous, has been tapped to replace her.

And just yesterday, Trump said he's firing the Fed's Lisa Cook "for cause" – the cause being her listing two homes as primary residences on a pair of separate mortgage applications in Michigan and Georgia "in order to potentially secure lower interest rates and more favorable loan terms," according to Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte.

Now, I wouldn't do this on simultaneous mortgage applications – especially if I were a member of the Fed to boot.

Alleged mortgage fraud is a bad look for someone so closely attached to the financial system. But the White House was likely pleased to find dirt on Cook because she has been in favor of keeping interest rates higher.

Now, it's unclear if mortgage fraud rises to the level of "cause" or if a president even has the authority to fire a Fed board member if it does. The issue will be decided in court. Cook's attorney said that she plans to sue Trump, and Cook said she'll keep doing her job at the Fed in the meantime.

So I'm not sure this news changes anything for many investors, who already know about the White House's desire for a lower-interest-rate environment.

But the story could have implications for the concept of longer-term Fed "independence" – real or perceived – and possibly the timing of the end of Powell's term. If Trump is successful in removing Cook, it could encourage him to try the same with Powell.

The irony is that the Fed might lower interest rates as soon as next month anyway.

Shifting our attention to cryptocurrencies...

Earlier this month, we shared a few guest essays from Crypto Capital editor Eric Wade.

He discussed the impact of the U.S. having "its first pro-crypto administration" in the White House and a story (called Project Key Square) that could lead to the biggest trading opportunity Eric says he has ever seen...

You can read those essays here and here.

We received some skeptical, good questions in response. Many of the points were also summarized in a great note we got yesterday from subscriber Chuck S. Here's Chuck's note in full...

There are two questions you gentlemen need to address around Bitcoin...

As Project Key Square (our government) and others pile into Bitcoin, what assurances do you have that the founders or keepers of the Bitcoin code wouldn't simply decide to make more Bitcoin? Perhaps double its volume and cut the price in half? Seems this risk could significantly impact Bitcoin's value?

Also, with Fidelity, BlackRock and others implementing Bitcoin funds, this certainly makes Bitcoin trackable and taxable to the U.S. government. How would you like to pay taxes on a 5,000% gain (which also increases taxes on ALL of your income for the year) and of course how could you pay it other than cashing in some Bitcoin. I assume people don't want to simply accumulate Bitcoin to say they are billionaires without having some cash from the investment. And if you have an account with a major firm, I think you can be assured that any of these gains would be taxable at some point, even perhaps early without redemption? So much for confidentiality!

It would be of great interest to see you answering questions like this in your Bitcoin investment advice.

I passed the note along to Eric because many of these questions may also be on your mind (they've been on mine, too). Here's Eric's reply, point by point...

As Project Key Square (our government) and others pile into Bitcoin, what assurances do you have that the founders or keepers of the Bitcoin code wouldn't simply decide to make more Bitcoin?

Eric Wade: Absolutely none. That's the power, beauty, and appeal of bitcoin. It's open source and anyone can do anything they want to it.

Now, if you're genuinely interested in this subject, you'll be thrilled with what I say next. Changes in bitcoin's code have already happened – numerous times. When it happens, we either get new, better code or we get what's called a "fork" and an entirely new strand of code.

Bitcoin miners vote with their computers, and they can adopt this new code, ignore it, or even choose to run both the new and the old code. Are you aware that Bitcoin Cash forked away from bitcoin on August 1, 2017?

Leading up to and on that date, bitcoin's market capitalization was approximately $45 billion. It's worth noting that the market was highly volatile during this time, and bitcoin's market cap surged to more than $100 billion by the end of October 2017. Bitcoin is worth $2.2 trillion today.

If you're interested in the power of open-source software, I encourage you to dig even deeper into it.

What if bitcoin miners perhaps double its volume and cut the price in half? Seems this risk could significantly impact Bitcoin's value?

EW: This is an excellent question. Assuming by volume you mean supply, it could happen as a fork (see above), or if all the miners decide to adopt the change, then bitcoin changes. It sounds like you're describing a stock split, but it doesn't have to play out that way.

Another way is the bitcoin community could opt to reduce the current decimal length of bitcoin from eight places to seven, for example, which would immediately increase the "bitcoin supply" by 10X... That's exactly why many bitcoin investors count their satoshis ("SATs"), which is the smallest denomination of bitcoin – the equivalent of 0.00000001 bitcoin.

So while what we call bitcoin today can change, SATs can't change. Since a SAT is at the eighth decimal place, one SAT is worth about a 10th of a penny right now. When bitcoin hits $1 million each, a SAT will be worth a penny. At that time, maybe we'll see more people count their SATs and fewer count their bitcoin. The point is, the ability to slide the decimal point – which could increase bitcoin supply by 10X – doesn't affect the bitcoin community's perception of the value.

With Fidelity, BlackRock and others implementing Bitcoin funds, this certainly makes Bitcoin trackable and taxable to the U.S. government. How would you like to pay taxes on a 5,000% gain (which also increases taxes on ALL of your income for the year) and of course how could you pay it other than cashing in some Bitcoin?

EW: How would I pay my taxes? With a grimace and click of my mouse, just like I pay my taxes on everything the government asks me to pay taxes on. Now, with that said, I'm sure you're aware that our government is (and has been for more than a decade) debating whether to follow currency, commodity, or other asset rules when it comes to crypto taxes.

Whatever they figure out, I'll be right there complying. Now, I do admit I'm maybe an oddball in that I both attempt to legally reduce my taxes as much as possible (keep assets in retirement accounts, trusts, minimize selling, borrow against assets, etc.) while also believing taxes are a good problem to have if they mean you've made money.

I don't presume I can avoid taxes on my investments, but I sure as heck try to minimize them.

I assume people don't want to simply accumulate Bitcoin to say they are billionaires without having some cash from the investment...

EW: You are likely right that many people are waiting to turn their bitcoin back into inflationary fiat paper. In fact, the bitcoin market robustly trades 24 hours a day, seven days a week. This is a good thing. It's perhaps the most liquid major market in all of investing.

If you have an account with a major firm, I think you can be assured that any of these gains would be taxable at some point, even perhaps early without redemption? So much for confidentiality!

EW: Don't get me started on how right you are on this one! We have more tracking of more activities by more government agencies than you can shake a stick at! What's nice, however, is that many cryptocurrencies can be transacted like cash. (And as you know, cash has serial numbers, too.)

But, for sure, digital currencies are not as confidential as, say, gold coins or precious gemstones. I'm racking my brain to think of other stores of value that have some untraceable aspect... Maybe you have some other suggestions.

But, no, bitcoin isn't purely and infallibly confidential. And if you buy your bitcoin from a major exchange, it is likely keeping records. But – and this will make you very happy – let's say you mine some bitcoin on your own miner... They are clean and untraceable until you make a misstep that reveals your identity – for example, if you spend some bitcoin on a mail-order item to your house or a similar transaction. But remember, cryptos also have the added superpower of not being counterfeit-able. Say that about gold or jewels!

All in all, I hope you see that bitcoin has amassed $2.2 trillion of market cap in less than two decades, not because it is a no-tax, confidential, secret money... but because the positive attributes it has outweigh the ones it doesn't.

In closing...

Corey here again... I hope you can see how much of an expert crypto guide Eric is. He can explain the basics and nuances of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies better than anyone I've come across.

And when he talks about a big opportunity in the space – like he has been lately – we listen. His presentation from earlier this month about possibly the biggest trading opportunity of his career is now offline. But stay tuned. We might reopen it in the future.

New 52-week highs (as of 8/25/25): Barrick Mining (B), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Equinox Gold (EQX), FirstCash (FCFS), VanEck Gold Miners Fund (GDX), Alphabet (GOOGL), Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE), Kinross Gold (KGC), Lincoln Electric (LECO), Lumentum (LITE), Newmont (NEM), Construction Partners (ROAD), SSR Mining (SSRM), United States Commodity Index Fund (USCI), and Telefônica Brasil (VIV).

In today's mailbag, one take on what interest-rate cuts really mean... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"When the Fed starts lowering rates it means one thing: the country is heading towards recession. Juice to the stock market is temporary until the 'true' economic reality sets in. Notice that the last 50 basis point cut [last fall] did nothing to help the economy..." – Subscriber Ted B.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin and Eric Wade
Baltimore, Maryland and Los Angeles, California
August 26, 2025