Looking Past the Shutdown
A charade and a bigger 'brick'... Bad company... Great Recession-like job market signals... A data blackout... The BLS remains without a leader... The late Marty Zweig's 17 investing rules... Marc Chaikin's take on them – and today's market...
The shutdown continues...
We're on Day 2 of the partial government shutdown and the White House is ramping up the pressure... publicly pinning blame on Democrats for the funding stalemate and promising to cut programs and lay off workers. President Donald Trump has called it an "unprecedented opportunity."
But the stock market has rarely been happier – with investors seeing through the political charade.
The benchmark S&P 500 Index and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index traded at new all-time highs today.
Meanwhile, bitcoin – originally designed as an alternative to U.S. political dysfunction – has soared nearly 10% in the past five days to above $120,000.
So far, this government shutdown seems like it will go down as just another brick in the "wall of worry" that this bull market has been climbing.
That said, there is a different, growing risk to note, which might be more than just a brick...
Today's jobs market is in increasingly bad company...
Over the past few days, we've touched on the barrage of jobs data that has come out this week. Job openings and hiring have fallen, and the economy has lost jobs in three of the past four months (by payroll processor ADP's measure).
Today, another key batch of private labor market data arrived, and it showed more of the same...
U.S. companies announced 54,064 layoffs in September, according to a monthly report from consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That's down 37% from August (and down 26% year over year). But the year-to-date data confirms that we're seeing a generally weakening labor market.
From the Challenger report...
So far this year, companies have announced 946,426 job cuts, the highest [year to date] since 2020 when 2,082,262 were announced. It is up 55% from the 609,242 job cuts announced through the first three quarters of last year and is up 24% from the 2024 full year total of 761,358. The 2025 year-to-date total is the fifth highest in the 36 years Challenger has reported.
Put another way, companies are laying off workers at the highest pace since the global COVID-19 pandemic caused the economy to shut down for months. And the hiring picture is even worse...
So far this year, businesses have only announced plans to add about 205,000 jobs, according to Challenger. That's less than half of the announced hiring plans for the first nine months of 2024.
And it's the lowest year-to-date total since 2009.
Putting the entire picture together...
Companies are laying off workers at the fastest pace since the unemployment rate hit 15% – the highest level since the Great Depression. And they're hiring workers at the lowest rate since the Great Recession.
That's a telling sign for the labor market – even if the unemployment rate is around historical lows still today. It's time to turn the "recession watch" radar back on, though it might be tough to get a complete picture for the foreseeable future.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics ('BLS') still doesn't have a leader...
Two months ago, Trump fired the BLS commissioner after a huge downward revision in the jobs numbers.
E.J. Antoni was Trump's pick to take over the job.
But late Tuesday, the White House withdrew its nomination for Antoni.
No official reason was given. But reports suggest the decision stems from a variety concerns – even from Republicans – about his qualifications... old social media posts he made (that have since been deleted)... and images that showed Antoni as a "bystander," according to the White House, during the January 6, 2021 breach of the Capitol building.
When Antoni was nominated back in August, one of the changes he suggested to the way the BLS operates got more attention than others. As we wrote in the August 12 Digest...
Antoni has proposed suspending the release of the monthly jobs report until the data gets "fixed." He suggests that the BLS only publish the "more accurate" quarterly jobs reports.
Antoni (and Trump) wanted to do away with the revisions that have shown the labor market is on much shakier ground than initially reported.
But even without Antoni to head up the BLS, the White House is still keeping the government agency in its crosshairs. As a White House official told NBC News...
President Trump is committed to fixing the longstanding failures at the BLS that have undermined the public's trust in critical economic data. The President plans to announce a new nominee very soon.
Of course, as we noted in that same August 12 Digest, switching to quarterly jobs report may smooth out the revisions, but it causes a different problem...
The market may not like seeing revisions. But uncertainty from not knowing the health of the economy could be just as bad.
Still, Antoni got his wish...
With the government shutdown, the BLS is in a "blackout" and not releasing its regularly scheduled data.
For this week, that means no weekly jobless claims (scheduled for today). And, more importantly, no monthly nonfarm payroll and unemployment rate report tomorrow.
And it's not just the releases paused... data collection is, too.
So the longer the shutdown goes on, the more it will impact jobs and inflation data.
The BLS's Consumer Price Index for September ("CPI") is scheduled for release on October 15. With prediction markets pricing in a two-week shutdown, the collection of inflation data could be delayed by two weeks.
That would push back the CPI release to the end of October or possibly early November. So we may not get an update on inflation before the Federal Reserve's next policy announcement on October 29.
If that's the case, last week's Personal Consumption Expenditures ("PCE") release – which showed inflation rising at a rate of 2.7% – will be the last inflation data we see before the Fed's next decision. And based solely on that data, inflation is running hotter than the central bank's supposed 2% target.
Typically, that's not an environment where the Fed would be cutting rates. But as Fed Chair Jerome Powell has made clear over the past month, the central bank is more focused on the jobs market – probably for good reason.
For now, though, stocks are still climbing...
As our colleague Mike Barrett told his Select Value Opportunities subscribers yesterday...
Stocks have mostly looked beyond Trump's tariffs, the Fed's restrictive monetary policy, and a deteriorating employment picture increasingly clouded by the rise of AI. But they won't do so forever.
A delayed "hot" inflation report on the heels of another Fed rate cut could be the catalyst for markets to turn lower as investors question the central bank's policy and the path ahead for the economy. But we won't know if that's the case for another few weeks.
As we wrote yesterday, we're not saying it's time to go "all out" of stocks right now, but this isn't the ideal time to load up either.
One more thing before we go...
Yesterday, we shared a link to this week's Stansberry Investor Hour podcast with Marc Chaikin, founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics.
Among other things, we spoke with Marc about the late Marty Zweig's famous "investing rules."
Zweig began his career in the 1970s as an investment newsletter and went on to become an influential investment adviser and author of the book Winning on Wall Street (there's hope for me yet!).
In 1990, he presented his list of 17 timeless investing rules. I've had them hanging up in my office for years...
1) The trend is your friend, don't fight the tape.
2) Let profits run, take losses quickly.
3) If you buy for a reason, and that reason is discounted or is no longer valid, then sell!
4) If the values don't make sense, then don't participate. (2+2=4)
5) The cheap get cheaper, the dear get dearer.
6) Don't fight the FED (less valid than #1).
7) Every indicator eventually bites the dust.
8) Adapt to change.
9) Don't let your opinion of what should happen bias your trading strategy.
10) Don't blame your mistakes on the market.
11) Don't play all the time.
12) The market is not efficient, but is still tough to beat.
13) You'll never know all the answers.
14) If you can't sleep at night, reduce your positions or get out.
15) Don't put too much faith in the "experts."
16) Don't focus too much on short-term information flows.
17) Beware "New Era" thinking, i.e., it's different this time because...
Marc – who has been a pro investor for nearly 60 years and is a Wall Street pioneer in his own right – was friends with Zweig and said he "spent many mornings at the beach together while he was writing his market letter."
Marc says these rules still apply today because "human nature hasn't changed... Psychology is a big factor in the market, whether it's momentum, or analysts following one another... the basic rules still work."
Among the points Marc highlighted is that "you can't have all the answers." He said...
Marty used to say, "I can tell you what, but I don't always know why."
That line speaks to the heart of the stock-rating system Marc developed after his Wall Street career – the Power Gauge.
It presents "buy," "sell," or "neutral" ratings on tens of thousands of stocks at any moment, based on 20 factors that take a company's financials, technical outlook, and Wall Street activity and opinions into account.
Marc's system can also provide an instant snapshot of what's happening in the broad market and specific sectors – without bias... and suggest how to proceed accordingly.
Marc's take today...
Marc is warning that today's market euphoria won't last... and there could be a major short-term market shift, as soon as tomorrow, that may catch a lot of investors off guard. Marc shares all the details in his new presentation right here.
But you don't have to feel the full force of the fallout. Marc says his Power Gauge system and an innovative way of using it "could even help you safeguard and grow your wealth during a bear market or recession."
Again, you can hear more here, but only until midnight Eastern time tonight when the presentation goes offline.
And you can check out our Stansberry Investor Hour interview with Marc here on our YouTube page or at InvestorHour.com. We also discuss the type of stocks Marc thinks will be the next AI winners and he gives us a real-time look at how to use the Power Gauge, including sharing the ticker symbols of a few gold stocks that rate well right now.
New 52-week highs (as of 10/1/25): ABB (ABBNY), AbbVie (ABBV), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Alamos Gold (AGI), Applied Materials (AMAT), Valterra Platinum (ANGPY), ASML (ASML), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), BWX Technologies (BWXT), Ciena (CIEN), Dimensional International Small Cap Value Fund (DISV), EnerSys (ENS), iShares MSCI Italy Fund (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Fund (EWP), SPDR Euro STOXX 50 Fund (FEZ), Comfort Systems USA (FIX), VanEck Gold Miners Fund (GDX), VanEck Junior Gold Miners Fund (GDXJ), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Convertible Bond Fund (ICVT), Kinross Gold (KGC), NYLI CBRE Global Infrastructure Megatrends Term Fund (MEGI), Monster Beverage (MNST), VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Fund (MOAT), Neuberger Berman Next Generation Connectivity Fund (NBXG), Newmont (NEM), New Gold (NGD), Novartis (NVS), OR Royalties (OR), Ormat Technologies (ORA), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy Fund (PBW), Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV), Ryder System (R), Roche (RHHBY), Roivant Sciences (ROIV), Roku (ROKU), ProShares Ultra Technology (ROM), Seabridge Gold (SA), iShares Silver Trust (SLV), SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value Fund (SPYV), Torex Gold Resources (TORXF), ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL), ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (USD), Vanguard FTSE Europe Fund (VGK), and Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU).
In today's mailbag, feedback on yesterday's edition which discussed the start of the partial government shutdown... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Corey, I wouldn't be so concerned about non-essential federal employees and their potential lack of a paycheck, even if this 'shut down' lasts for a week or more. As you well know, every employee will eventually receive every penny of 'back pay' once the [politicians] re-open the government..." – Subscriber Jim V.
Corey McLaughlin comment: Thanks for the note, Jim. We're not concerned. In fact, I heard from a friend this morning who works at a shut-down agency in Washington, and they shared your exact sentiment.
We were merely referencing the situation as an example of how our dear leaders can't get out of their – and the country's – own way. But in the unlikely event this goes on for more than a week or two, it will matter to people waiting on paychecks.
"Today's write up brought a little humor to me today. That word 'gaggle', probably a lot of people do not know what it means!" – Subscriber D.M.
McLaughlin comment: Glad we could provide a dose of humor to your day. For the record, a dictionary tells me "gaggle" primarily means either a group of geese or... a disorderly or noisy group of people, like members of Congress yesterday.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
October 2, 2025