Powell to Trump: Keep Waiting

The Fed holds rates steady... The instant reaction... 'Let people buy!'... Gold could be on the verge of a breakout... Bitcoin hasn't hit a top yet... New content for our Alliance members... A stock that's up 115% and is still a 'screaming buy'...

A 'divided' Fed is keeping rates steady...

As was widely expected, today the Federal Reserve kept its benchmark bank-lending rate range right where it has been for seven months, between 4.25% to 4.5%. But things in Fed land aren't as vanilla as the decision suggests.

The central bank's regular post-meeting statement included no shocking language, with minimal changes from its last one in mid-June. But it did note that two Federal Open Market Committee ("FOMC") members – Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman – voted against Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the group's decision to maintain rates.

This is the first time two FOMC members have dissented from a rate decision during a Fed meeting since 1993. Waller and Bowman said they preferred to lower the federal-funds rate by 25 basis points.

The previous FOMC member to dissent at all in the past two decades was Bowman. She was against the Fed's 50-basis-point cut in September, citing a concern about reigniting inflation. (She opted to support a 25-point cut instead.)

Some politics are involved here, we suspect.

Waller has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Powell as Fed chair after his term ends in May. So has Bowman, though less so. They just put themselves down as the "low-interest people" that President Donald Trump is seeking to lead the Fed.

Trump has been crystal clear in his preference for lower rates. So far, he hasn't gone as far as trying to fire Powell before his term as chair ends in May to see them. But maybe that's coming...

Powell is not acquiescing quite yet...

In his post-meeting press conference, the Fed chair said the labor market remains "solid" while inflation remains "somewhat elevated relative to our 2% longer-run goal." That combination doesn't make for a great Fed case to lower interest rates.

Powell also continued to say tariffs are an obstacle to rate cuts.

In his opening statement, he said that "services inflation has continued to ease, while increased tariffs are pushing up prices in some categories of goods." He later added that there is still a lot of uncertainty around the influence of tariffs...

Changes to government policies continue to evolve, and their effects on the economy remain uncertain. Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen.

A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation could be short lived, reflecting a one-time shift in the price level. But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed.

And so, what appears to be at least a somewhat "divided" Fed is holding interest rates steady. To Powell, the central bank is keeping policy "modestly restrictive, in my way of thinking... right now." However, saying all this, he left the door open for changes down the road...

Despite elevated uncertainty, the economy is in a solid position... We believe that the current stance of monetary policy leaves us well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments.

He also said inflation is on a path to a 2% rate, suggesting that the Fed would find reason to lower rates, assuming the labor market keeps holding up... eventually.

Trump's pressure campaign continues...

Earlier today, a second-quarter GDP report showed 3% annualized growth (flipping a negative print from the first quarter, when importers brought in a surge of goods ahead of tariffs).

Trump quickly headed to Truth Social to again call Powell "too late" when it comes to cutting rates...

Somebody make a T-shirt: Let people buy!

Powell even addressed this idea in his press conference, saying the Fed's decisions aren't the "main effect" on mortgage rates. (Don't tell my mortgage broker that.)

Also... this GDP number points to a strong economy, which doesn't exactly support the president's call for a monetary-policy rescue.

The markets just got a little more hawkish...

The Fed's policy announcement went out today at 2 p.m. Eastern time. Just before then, futures traders had 60% odds on a cut at the central bank's next meeting in September... and almost 80% odds on rates being at least 25 basis points lower after its late October meeting. And the U.S. stock indexes were slightly up for the day.

By our press time, fed-funds futures traders lowered odds of a Fed cut in September to 45% and the chances of one happening by October to 66%, and the major U.S. stock indexes turned lower in the final hours of trading. The benchmark S&P 500 Index finished essentially flat.

So, the market's instant reaction to everything this afternoon was a slightly "hawkish" read, meaning traders are less optimistic that we'll see looser monetary policy in the next several months.

But stay tuned for tomorrow's action...

Often, market reaction the day after a Fed meeting is important and indicative about sentiment. Investors will continue to digest everything they've heard, and sometimes Fed officials find the need to clarify points that might not have been made or were unclear today.

Powell also said he expects the dissenters, Waller and Bowman, to speak publicly in the next few days to explain their cases for cutting rates.

In any case, here's one asset to keep an eye on as the interest-rate story plays out...

That's gold.

Looking at the technical picture of gold lately – plus the idea that the Fed could lower interest rates – has me thinking of something longtime former Gold Stock Analyst editor John Doody once told me...

That is that the very best time to buy gold (and gold stocks) is right before the Fed shifts to a "loose" monetary policy. That is, when the central bank takes its foot off the economic brakes and hits the gas pedal.

If that happens, look out, because the technical setup for gold looks appetizing right now...

Our colleague Sean Michael Cummings shared this chart on Monday in the free DailyWealth newsletter...

According to Sean, gold's price for the past few months suggests a break higher could be ahead. As he explained...

Gold is bumping its head against a price of $3,435 per ounce. You can see it neared that level in April, June, and then again just last week.

But you'll also notice that gold has made a series of higher lows since April. It found a floor of $2,978.35 in April... followed by $3,185.92 in May. And finally, last month, it found a floor of $3,268.

This narrowing trading range is what's called a "consolidation phase." It shows a market that doesn't want to bid on gold above $3,435 an ounce... but in which folks buy price dips with increasing speed and enthusiasm.

In other words, the upside pressure is immense. The $3,435 ceiling isn't likely to last long... but you have a chance to buy gold today while it's still hovering below it.

Sean wrote about how global central banks are also providing a huge tailwind for gold prices, and that demand is not showing signs of relenting. You can read the entire piece here, and be sure to note if gold breaks above its previous highs.

As of today, it was trading around $3,300 per ounce. Also, remember that this is all happening within a much-longer-term bullish setup for gold. You can read more about that in this August 2024 Digest here.

Also, don't bet against bitcoin...

That's the case that DailyWealth Trader editor Chris Igou made to his subscribers earlier this week... Depending on your view, bitcoin can be anything from a "risk on" asset in the short term to an inflation hedge over the long run. (I happen to think both.)

In any case, sentiment around bitcoin has been getting more positive lately. It's back near all-time highs, and it moved above $120,000 earlier this month.

Since its lows around the end of 2022, bitcoin is up around 630%, but it may still have room to run higher before hitting a peak.

A few indicators suggest this, including one that our Crypto Capital editor Eric Wade trusts: the "Pi Cycle Top." This indicator, based on a set of moving averages, would have correctly alerted people to each major top in bitcoin going back more than a decade now.

Regular readers also might recall that in January, Eric said he expected bitcoin to reach a "bubble stage" sometime this year, with the price ultimately reaching around $200,000 or $250,000.

Eric shared a couple reasons on an episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour. One factor is the Trump administration's friendliness toward cryptos. Another is a consistent four-year cycle of price action in the world's most popular crypto, which suggested bitcoin hadn't reached a peak yet.

This week, Chris took a look at another interesting indicator – Google Trends data. He said this indicator suggests sentiment around bitcoin hasn't yet hit the "euphoric" levels that you would expect to see at a top in its price. As he wrote...

Here's how it works... The day with the most Internet searches for bitcoin gets a reading of 100. And anything less than that is expressed as a percentage of that highest reading.

If there are more people searching for a term today than on the previous high, today will become the new high-water mark.

In the chart below, you'll see that searches for "bitcoin" are only at a reading of 23 today based on this indicator...

Previous peaks for Google-search interest in bitcoin coincided with major tops in its price in 2017 and 2021. In December 2017, bitcoin hit $19,041, up 1,900% from the end of 2016. As Chris said...

Millionaires were being minted seemingly overnight. Euphoria took over by December, with Google searches for bitcoin skyrocketing. Then, right when everyone was all in on bitcoin, the bottom fell out.

Bitcoin fell from above $19,000 per coin to below $3,200 per coin by December 2018... an 83% crash in about a year. Folks who bought in when euphoria was highest got crushed.

The second peak happened in 2021. Folks weren't searching for bitcoin as much as in 2017, but you can see the surge up to a reading of 44 that year. That's the second-highest reading on record.

Again, that was right as bitcoin started to top. Sure enough, the easy money was over. And a 77% crash came shortly after.

Chris says there will likely be another "crypto winter" at some point. But we're not close to peak euphoria and a change in seasons in this space. If the Google Trends reading surges above 40, "that's when I would start to be cautious," Chris concluded. "We aren't there yet."

Lastly for today, we have some new content for our Alliance members...

Just in case you missed the announcement in your inbox last week, I want to make sure our Stansberry Alliance members are aware of a new exclusive benefit we've just published. As our Director of Research Matt Weinschenk put it...

Here at Stansberry Research, we have a "secret weapon" working with us behind the scenes... His name is Gabe Marshank.

Gabe has honed his craft by collaborating with some of the most famous investors at the biggest hedge funds in the world. They include Steve Cohen, David Einhorn, Leon Cooperman, and more.

We're calling this new publication Market Maven. In its first edition, Gabe will share a stock he thinks has the potential to triple as a global supply shortage strikes one critical metal.

Gabe starts off by telling us the story of when he made a nine-figure profit for his firm. Yes, as in more than $100 million.

It's a great read – and a great investment. The stock is up 115% since Gabe recommended it on Alliance Day at the Stansberry Research conference last year in Las Vegas, and it's still a "screaming buy," he says. Alliance members can access the first issue of Market Maven here.

Gabe also talked through his investing philosophy in our latest Alliance Town Hall. Plus, Matt introduces you to the newest member of the Stansberry Research team. Alliance members can hear all the details in the Town Hall video, which you can watch here.

We aren't offering Gabe's new publication to anyone but Alliance members at this time. If that changes, we'll make sure to let Digest readers know how they can subscribe. 

On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan Ferris and I are joined by venture-capital veteran Joe Milam. He's the founder and CEO of AngelSpan, which provides investor relations for early-stage startups, and he'll be presenting at this year's Stansberry Research conference this October in Las Vegas.

Joe has been involved in Silicon Valley since the early days of its rise to prominence. He has plenty of connections and stories to share about the venture-capital industry, including its lack of "professionalism" and also the opportunities to profit...

Click here to watch the full interview now... listen to the entire Stansberry Investor Hour podcast at InvestorHour.com, or wherever you get your podcasts.

And to hear more from Joe and our other conference speakers, click here to learn more about our annual conference and claim your ticket.

New 52-week highs (as of 7/29/25): Altius Minerals (ALS.TO), Broadcom (AVGO), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), BWX Technologies (BWXT), Commvault Systems (CVLT), CyberArk Software (CYBR), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Lumentum (LITE), Rithm Capital (RITM), ResMed (RMD), ProShares Ultra Technology (ROM), Synopsys (SNPS), and ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (USD).

In today's mailbag, another example of speculative fervor in the market today, which we wrote about yesterday with the "DORK" stocks... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"After being essentially dormant for years, CEA Industries stock (VAPE) went parabolic Monday. As near as I can tell they announced a strategy for getting into crypto mimicking MSTR. On Tuesday it gave back a large chunk of its gains. I have a microscopic position in it, left over from my pot stock days. It didn't have any significant effect on my portfolio but I'm sure someone out there is nursing a severe case of whiplash..." – Subscriber R.F.G.

Corey McLaughlin comment: I would think so as well. After a 500%-plus leap on Monday from around $9 per share, VAPE shares lost about 30% yesterday and 15% more today...

And you're correct on the catalyst for the action. CEA Industries is a Colorado-based nicotine-vaping company. And it now intends to build a Binance BNB token "treasury," rather than one focused on bitcoin like Strategy (MSTR). Of course it will...

Like the meme stocks, we'd say stay away from this one. The company's "pivot" is actually part of a burgeoning trend that our Matt Weinschenk recently described as a potential "financial time bomb."

If you want to understand more about it, Matt and Eric Wade recently sat down for an episode of This Week on Wall Street. They discussed the rise of bitcoin treasury companies – public firms using corporate cash and stock tricks to juice their value through bitcoin – and what to know about the hype and risk involved in these companies.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
July 30, 2025