The Signal That Points to $200,000 Bitcoin
The market shrugs off the Ukraine negotiations... Traders hate bitcoin… Why that's such a bullish sign... A $2 trillion maneuver that could shock the markets… Buffett just bet $1.5 billion on this beaten-down stock… Insiders are loading up, too…
A lot is happening in the world...
Talks to end the war in Ukraine are dominating the headlines today. Who knows how that story will go? Not even the man at the center of the negotiations does right now.
As President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office today while sitting next to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, just a few days after meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska...
When it ends, I can't tell you, but the war is going to end. And this gentleman wants it to end, and Vladimir Putin wants it to end. I think the whole world is tired of it. We are going to get it ended.
We continue to live in interesting times. But you wouldn't know anything much was going on by looking at the market today...
The major U.S. indexes were little changed, and the CBOE Volatility Index was at a placid level around 15. I (Corey McLaughlin) can't disagree with the sentiment myself. I've just returned from several days out of the office and away from the market, and I'm feeling refreshed.
That doesn't mean some interesting things aren't still happening, though, beneath the surface... Here's one that comes courtesy of our colleague Brett Eversole, as he wrote about in an issue of DailyWealth last week.
It has to do with a subject – cryptocurrencies – that we've covered here lately as well...
For better or worse, crypto never made much sense to me (Brett Eversole)...
That's partly why I've basically never written about cryptocurrencies. I've always invested in things I understood.
The "why" in the crypto market didn't seem compelling. At first, cryptos seemed like a fad investment without much staying power. Clearly, I was wrong on that front. Cryptocurrencies are here to stay – otherwise, they would have died by now.
But the more important reason I've avoided crypto is that I'm always driven by the numbers... And when an asset is new, you don't have historical data to help you analyze it.
Today, crypto is far from new. And with more than a decade of history to draw on, bitcoin is old enough to study with a data-driven approach...
It recently hit a new all-time high... But surprisingly, traders are betting on a decline. This sentiment mismatch is important to understand because it tells us that bitcoin is likely to keep rising from here.
Let me explain...
Bitcoin's path to $200,000...
Bitcoin has hit plenty of milestones on its road to adoption.
It started as an unknown asset in 2009. Then, it slowly became a household name. Eventually, platforms like Coinbase made it simple for the casual investor to own it.
Then, in 2017, bitcoin futures launched. And finally, last year, the first true bitcoin exchange-traded funds came to market.
Now you can own bitcoin in just about any type of investment account. The asset has gone completely mainstream.
Importantly, with futures trading going back nearly a decade, we can use one of our favorite tools to evaluate bitcoin sentiment... the Commitment of Traders ("COT") report.
The weekly COT report gives crucial insight into what futures traders are doing with their money. When these folks all agree, they tend to be wrong. So their bets can be a useful contrarian signal.
In short, if this group is clamoring to buy bitcoin, prices could be nearing a top. But that's not happening today, despite bitcoin hitting all-time highs above $120,000.
In fact, the opposite is true. Traders are more skittish about owning bitcoin than they've been in years. Take a look...
Bitcoin fell hard earlier this year. It dropped nearly 30% during the stock market sell-off in the spring. And, as you can see, that sent futures traders running for the exits.
Since then, though, the crypto has regained all of those losses and then some. Like the stock market, it's back to hitting new all-time highs... But futures traders are still selling.
The COT recently hit its lowest level since 2021. And according to history, buying after a new one-year low in the COT is a darn good strategy. These moves have happened six other times in the past six years. Take a look at what happened next...
Bitcoin is a massively volatile asset. It goes through booms and busts that make the stock market seem steady. But overall, it has posted an incredible 65% annual gain since mid-2019.
Still, buying when traders hate bitcoin is an even better strategy... These setups led to 23% gains in three months, 43% gains in six months, and a massive 85% gain over a year.
Over the past six setups we've seen, five were winners. And the one loser happened before a "crypto winter," where bitcoin fell nearly 70% over the next year. If you remove that unusual case, the typical one-year gain rises to a remarkable 162%.
Of course, we could be on the verge of another crypto winter today... But that's unlikely. Instead, traders hate bitcoin despite it reaching new all-time highs. And history shows that the current rally can continue as a result.
If bitcoin rallies another 85% from here, it'll soar past $200,000 a coin. That might seem crazy given the rally that just happened. But traders are still bearish.
This boom is far from over...
On a related note, don't miss Eric Wade's new crypto presentation...
Corey here again, to remind you about Crypto Capital editor Eric Wade's latest free briefing that we've been telling you about over the past week or so. It goes offline tomorrow night at midnight Eastern time, so be sure to check it out if you haven't done so already...
In short, Eric says that as soon as this week, the U.S. Treasury Department could stun the market and unveil a $2 trillion financial maneuver that could lead to the "biggest trade of all time."
You see, back in May, Eric attended an elite financial conclave with the likes of the Trump family, Vice President JD Vance, and other billionaires and White House insiders. On the agenda? A radical plan to reboot America's financial system that's designed to rescue America's debt markets.
Insiders are bracing for this major financial realignment. And, according to Eric, it could trigger a market move like we have never seen – and the biggest, most asymmetric trading opportunity of his career.
That's saying something, considering Eric has already delivered more 1,000% winners than anyone else in Stansberry Research's 25-year history. He says this is a rare chance to potentially make 10 times your money, or more, but you must act soon.
(And for Eric's existing Crypto Capital subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members, feel free to watch Eric's new briefing... But know that you also have access to this information and all of Eric's research here.)
Meanwhile, Warren Buffett has a big new buy...
Nick Koziol closes things out today with this report...
After markets closed on Thursday, we got the latest Securities and Exchange Commission filing showing the stock holdings of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B). In the second quarter, Berkshire trimmed its Apple (AAPL) holdings again – meaning Berkshire's stake in Apple has now declined by roughly 70% from its peak.
But investors were looking at Berkshire's newest buy – beaten-down health-insurance giant UnitedHealth (UNH).
In the second quarter, Berkshire Hathaway bought more than 5 million shares of UNH – worth about $1.5 billion as of Friday's close. Berkshire's stake represents about 0.5% of UnitedHealth's total market value of $275 billion.
UNH shares soared on the news Friday – up more than 10% and hitting a one-month high. And they gained another 1.5% today. The reasoning is simple...
Buffett is one of the best-known and most-followed investors, thanks to his history of beating the market. Putting it simply, when Buffett makes a big move like this, investors listen.
(You may have heard about Buffett retiring from Berkshire... But while he announced this past May that he'd step down as CEO, he remains in charge through the end of the year.)
Buffett isn't the only one with his eye on UnitedHealth...
Billionaire investor David Tepper also added UnitedHealth in the second quarter – buying up 2.3 million shares (worth about $700 million as of Friday's close).
And Michael Burry, who made his name shorting the housing market in the lead-up to the housing bust, bought 350,000 call options on UNH – betting on the stock price heading higher.
UnitedHealth insiders are doing the same...
In May, when shares fell more than 33% (and were in the middle of a 60% drawdown from April 11 to August 1), corporate insiders at UnitedHealth loaded up on the stock. During that month, they bought more than $30 million in shares on the open market – and sold none.
That includes the company's chief financial officer buying $5 million in shares... and a $25 million buy from CEO Stephen Hemsley just three days after he returned to UnitedHealth.
Insider buys are a telling indicator of management's outlook on a company. Insiders typically know the most about a company's inner workings and how the business is performing.
And right now, insiders (as well as big money managers) are seeing a good buying opportunity in UNH shares.
Whitney's take on UnitedHealth...
In Friday's edition of his free daily e-letter, Stansberry's Investment Advisory lead editor Whitney Tilson – a Berkshire Hathaway expert, among other things – dove into the investment case for UnitedHealth shares. From Whitney...
UnitedHealth has been an incredible growth story...
As you can see in the chart above, revenue has gone up every year since 2006. And the only two profit declines were during the global financial crisis and last year.
Whitney also dove into UnitedHealth's valuation to see if today is a good time to buy or if it's a value trap – with the stock 50% below its November high. More from Whitney...
At around $307 per share with 910 million shares outstanding, the company has a market cap of $279 billion. Adding the net debt, its enterprise value is $330 billion.
Is this cheap? Well, that depends on what you think earnings will be in the future...
In 2024, the company earned $27.66 per share. That means the stock is currently trading at only 11.1 times last year's earnings – roughly half the multiple of the average S&P 500 Index company.
But analysts expect earnings to be only $16.23 per share this year, down 41%. That would be a price-to-earnings multiple of 18.9 times, which is much less cheap.
Even at that "much less cheap" valuation, UnitedHealth is cheaper than the S&P 500 (which trades for 27 times earnings) and the health care sector (24 times earnings).
Still, Whitney isn't pounding the table to buy UNH shares just yet. As he wrote on Friday, there still could be more "shoes" to drop that send the stock lower again. But with Buffett and insiders loading up on shares, it's certainly one to watch.
After years of explosive growth in AI data centers, computer chips, and software tools, warning signs are emerging on Wall Street that AI stocks could be on the verge of a major crash. In This Week on Wall Street, our Director of Research Matt Weinschenk breaks it all down...
Watch this video on our YouTube page, and be sure to like and subscribe to get more of our free video content, like our Stansberry Investor Hour interviews, Diamond's Edge Live, and more.
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In today's mailbag, feedback on Dan Ferris' latest Friday essay... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Dan, I always enjoy your column and have done well following your advice. But in terms of reading enjoyment, your line, 'like chimps throwing feces...' made me laugh aloud! Nicely done. I'm sure Eric [Wade] knows his stuff, but I'll stick to what I understand and keep 1% of total assets in BTC." – Subscriber Chris S.
"Dear Dan, I really enjoy your analysis of the markets, human nature and your hold on common sense. It's a big reason I continue to follow Stansberry Research." – Subscriber Simon K.
"Dan, just a short note to appreciate your writings. There are so many of your sayings or phrases that are or will become 'classic' in my book. My compliments on the latest, 'The market cicadas will go dormant for another cycle.' Thanks for sharing all your insights." – Subscriber Jim M.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin, Brett Eversole, and Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
August 18, 2025