The World Is Outperforming
The dollar's slide is fueling a global boom... The '2000s playbook' could hand you big gains... Why currency values matter... The U.S. government wants a stake in another company... Stansberry Investor Hour: Bear Cave editor Edwin Dorsey...
Let's flip to another page of dot-com-era playbook...
All year, we've compared today's AI-driven bull market and the Internet boom of nearly three decades ago...
On Monday, we told you about the fuse being lit for the next market "Melt Up" in the form of lower interest rates... And yesterday, I (Corey McLaughlin) shared the bull case for gold amid continued devaluation of the U.S. dollar...
This brings us to another fundamental page of the dot-com-era playbook to consider when thinking about your portfolio today... this one from after the bubble popped. As our colleague Chris Igou wrote in his DailyWealth Trader service yesterday...
Let's cover what the 2000s playbook looked like...
U.S. stocks did well back then. But precious metals and foreign stocks shot to the moon.
As it is said, history may not repeat, but it often rhymes...
Today, we maintain we may be in a "1997" year when it comes to AI. In other words, we're looking at potentially more bull run ahead for stocks before a euphoric 1999 and, finally, early-2000s-like behavior. And yet, one key similarity to the dot-com bust may already be here, as Chris pointed out...
That's a decline in the relative value of the U.S. dollar...
As Chris shared with subscribers, the U.S. dollar – as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index ("DXY") – is once again in a downtrend.
DXY measures the value of the dollar compared with six other major global currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc...
We talked about this a lot back in 2022. That's when the relative value of the dollar gained as much as 20% when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to fight 40-year-high inflation...
Now things are going the other way. Tariff policy has rejiggered global trade, and the Fed has begun what it says will be a string of interest-rate cuts.
In 2025, the Dollar Index has been falling and is down nearly 10%. It began the year around 110... dipped below its longer-term, 200-day moving average in early March... and is around 97 today.
This matters a lot...
One of the more obvious consequences to a flagging dollar is a rise in the value of "hard assets" like gold and other commodities. But it matters to everything denominated in dollars, as our Director of Research Matt Weinschenk explained in a piece you should read in its entirety.
Here's one example, as Matt demonstrated with the performance of one stock measured in two different currencies...
Philip Morris International is a global company. It also trades on several exchanges in different currencies.
So far this year, its "PM" U.S. listing on the New York Stock Exchange (priced in dollars) has outperformed its "4I1" German listing on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange (priced in euros)...
But U.S. investors didn't really make more money than German investors did.
Philip Morris as a business has the same true value to investors in the U.S. and Europe. It is, after all, the same company in both places. The only reason the PM listing looks like it appreciated more than the 4I1 listing is because the value of the dollar decreased faster than the value of the euro did.
Yes, a dollar-based investor gets back more dollars than the euro-based investor does... But they are getting back dollars that are worth less.
Now, you may not think this is a problem. Buy the U.S. stocks and watch them outperform. And, yes, for much of the past 20 years, U.S. investors haven't needed to consider the value of the dollar in their investments. But they do now.
President Donald Trump's tariffs and "Liberation Day" back in early April were a flash point, but in general the global trade order is changing. And as Matt explained, global capital moved out of the U.S. in response...
Normally in a market crash, investors will move out of stocks and into super-safe Treasury bonds, driving their prices up and interest rates down. And if they're too scared to invest in bonds, they move into the dollar.
But that's not what we're seeing. Today, capital is flying out America's door.
Investors are moving out of U.S. stocks. They're moving out of U.S. bonds. And they're moving out of the U.S. dollar.
Matt pointed to the performance of U.S. stocks versus foreign stocks, measured by the MSCI ACWI ex U.S. Index...
As the ratio of U.S. stocks to foreign stocks rises, it means U.S. stocks are outperforming the rest of the world. When it falls, it means foreign stocks are outperforming. For nearly two decades, U.S. stocks put in an amazing run. That has radically reversed since the start of the year...
This trend has continued this year. Foreign stocks are up about 24% in 2025 compared with the MSCI U.S. Index's roughly 14% return.
So yes, a weaker dollar hasn't hurt U.S. stock prices, but foreign stocks are doing even better...
Which brings us to the part of the "2000s playbook" that Chris wrote about yesterday in DailyWealth Trader...
Remember, foreign companies borrow money in U.S.-dollar terms. So when the dollar declines, it lowers their debt burden. And that makes it easier for the company to thrive.
As the U.S. Dollar Index has dropped lower, foreign companies have started breaking out. As Chris wrote...
You can see this with the iShares MSCI Brazil Fund (EWZ). It just broke out to its highest level in the past year. Check it out...
Notice that this rally started at the end of 2024. Brazilian stocks are up 39.3% so far this year. That crushes the S&P 500 Index's 14.9% gain – just like we saw back in the 2000s.
From 2002 to 2007, while U.S. stocks gained about 120%, EWZ rose 1,388%. Even if you just bought a broad Latin American fund, you could have made more than 770% in the same span. As Chris continued...
The point here is we're starting to see a similar setup today. In 2002, the U.S. Dollar Index peaked at 120. And it fell below 78 by October 2007. That's a 35%-plus decline.
The current bear market for the U.S. dollar has a long way to go if it's going to be anything like that drop. The recent peak was at 114 in 2022. Again, it's at 97 today.
In short, the crash in the U.S. dollar is well underway. But odds are it's going to fall much further from here.
In that case, foreign markets could see a substantial boom in their returns compared with U.S. stocks. So, in addition to having an allocation to gold like we discussed yesterday, it's wise to think about adding exposure to foreign stocks if you're interested in outperformance.
DailyWealth Trader subscribers can see Chris' full analysis here.
And here's another consequence of this story... As capital is heading overseas, the U.S. government appears to be stepping in with investments... Here's Nick Koziol with another new development on that front...
The U.S. government's latest investment in 'national security'...
In July, we covered the U.S. government's new 15% stake in rare earth mining and processing company MP Materials (MP). Put simply, rare earths are critical materials for everything from catalytic converters in cars to magnets inside smartphones and fighter jets.
That makes rare earths extremely important to secure. And MP Materials is a big player in this industry. As we wrote in the July 10 Digest...
MP Materials owns the only operational rare earth mine in the U.S., located in Mountain Pass, California. And it's the second-largest rare earth mine in the world.
That's incredibly important. China controls nearly all of the world's rare earth refining. And it won't let us forget. It uses that strong position to cut off supply to the U.S. during trade tiffs.
So it's clear why the government is trying to lock in a steady supply of rare earth minerals for our domestic technology manufacturing.
But it's not stopping there...
Yesterday afternoon, Reuters reported that the government was looking to take up to a 10% stake in Canadian-headquartered lithium miner Lithium Americas (LAC). The White House reportedly plans to renegotiate a previously agreed-upon $2.3 billion loan to Lithium Americas for its Thacker Pass mine in northern Nevada.
Instead of a loan, the government may be looking to turn that $2.3 billion into an equity stake. That's what it recently did with Intel (INTC) and the grants the company had been awarded for building U.S. facilities. In this case, General Motors (GM) is also a joint partner in the Thacker Pass mine and is involved in the loan.
Thacker Pass is a huge deal in the critical-material space...
Lithium Americas describes its Thacker Pass mine as "the world's largest known measured lithium Resource and Reserve." And Reuters reported that, when the mine becomes operational in 2028, it will become the largest lithium producer in the Western Hemisphere.
Like we saw with MP, Lithium Americas shares have soared on the news. The stock surged more than 90% today to hit its highest level since April 2024.
Lithium is just as important as rare earths...
The Department of Energy calls lithium a "critical mineral" for rechargeable batteries. And these batteries have a wide range of uses, just like rare earth minerals. Lithium-ion batteries can be found in smartphones, electric vehicles, and even military drones.
That makes lithium supply another likely case of a "national security" investment (like MP and Intel). From Lithium Americas...
The U.S. currently produces less than 1% of the global supply of lithium. An overreliance on foreign critical minerals could jeopardize U.S. defense capabilities, infrastructure development and technological innovation.
The government has started with chips and critical materials. But this won't be the end of the investing arm of the White House.
As we wrote in the August 27 Digest, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has floated the idea of the government taking a stake in defense contractors like Lockheed Martin (LMT).
The companies' stocks have soared after news (or reports) of the government taking a stake in them. But as always, when the White House involves itself in any private businesses, investors should be cautious.
Such government support can quickly turn into a fight over how to move forward with these projects. As our colleague and MarketWise CEO Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig wrote in the August issue of Income Intelligence, it's better to look for investments that are off the government's radar.
Instead, Doc recommends something we've also emphasized here in the Digest – buying shares of high-quality companies that have operations that produce plenty of cash. There are plenty of those in the U.S., but as we discussed today, there are opportunities abroad, too.
Doc's Income Intelligence subscribers and our Stansberry Alliance members can read about one such stock he recommends right here.
The Bear Cave editor Edwin Dorsey joins the Stansberry Investor Hour this week to discuss the best opportunities in short selling. These include companies being disrupted by AI and traditional retailers that sell natural diamonds. He also sounds the alarm about U.S.-listed Chinese companies that are being pumped and dumped...
Click here to watch the full interview now... Subscribe to our YouTube page to watch more episodes, and listen to the entire Stansberry Investor Hour podcast at InvestorHour.com or wherever you get your podcasts.
New 52-week highs (as of 9/23/25): ABB (ABBNY), AbbVie (ABBV), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), Alamos Gold (AGI), Altius Minerals (ALS.TO), Antero Midstream (AM), Valterra Platinum (ANGPY), ASML (ASML), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Cameco (CCJ), Ciena (CIEN), Quest Diagnostics (DGX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Fund (EMXC), SPDR Euro STOXX 50 Fund (FEZ), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), Houlihan Lokey (HLI), iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense Fund (ITA), Kinross Gold (KGC), L3Harris Technologies (LHX), Grand Canyon Education (LOPE), Lynas Rare Earths (LYSDY), Mueller Industries (MLI), Newmont (NEM), New Gold (NGD), OR Royalties (OR), Pan American Silver (PAAS), Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), Sprott (SII), Uranium Energy (UEC), ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL), and Valero Energy (VLO).
In today's mailbag, feedback on yesterday's edition about gold, and why the price can hit $5,000... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Your comments on how and why the price of gold and silver have risen do play an important role. However, the base reason for why gold and now silver is going up can be best understood by how the BRICS has placed a solid floor in this market.
"Gold's rise since 2022 was created and solidified when Russia was frozen out of the SWIFT system. Once BRICS started trading in their Treasuries for gold... no longer could the U.S. Government and/or the [International Monetary Fund] control the price of gold by simply placing an order to sell billions of ounces of gold and or silver in the middle of the night on the COMEX [Commodity Exchange]. Now if such market crushing offers were placed, China, Russia, India, etc. would immediately meet the offer. End of story.
"Gold and silver prices are now independently set and controlled by the international market. The U.S. dollar has been put out to pasture." – Stansberry Alliance member H.B.S.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
September 24, 2025