What Iran's Retaliation Could Mean for Oil

The latest on Iran... Closing the Strait of Hormuz... Gold can still climb higher... A weight-loss pill on the horizon...

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Starting with the weekend's big news...

On Saturday, the U.S. military carried out an airstrike on Iran's three top nuclear sites. In "Operation Midnight Hammer," seven B-2 stealth bombers dropped "bunker buster" bombs on the enrichment and storage facilities.

These bombs are designed to penetrate the ground before detonating, making them the ideal choice to hit Iran's underground nuclear facilities.

In posts on Truth Social, President Donald Trump described the damage to the sites as "obliteration." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called the operation an "incredible and overwhelming success."

Now, all eyes have turned to how Iran will retaliate, and whether the U.S. would strike Iran for retaliating. Early in the afternoon, news broke that Iran had launched several missiles towards a U.S. air base in Qatar, which were all intercepted.

After the missile launch, Trump met with his national security team to discuss the ongoing Iranian threat.

This afternoon, Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. had countered Iran's "very weak response," while at the same time implying that Iran has now already settled its score.

Most importantly, they've gotten it all out of their "system," and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.

In a separate post, President Trump declared that "it's time for peace."

Nothing is final yet, though.

The U.S. (and its Qatari allies) had no trouble deflecting a dozen Iranian missiles. But Iran still has another way to retaliate...

After the attack, Iran's parliament approved a plan to close the Strait of Hormuz – a waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea.

And that could mean a spike in energy prices.

A potential disruption to energy markets...

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important energy "chokepoints" in the world – with 20% of the world's crude oil passing through the Strait. As of 2023, that was 16.8 million barrels per day.

Take a look at this chart the Commodity Supercycles team shared in their December 2023 issue...

Blocking off the Strait of Hormuz would have devastating effects on global oil supply – and push prices higher. As the Commodity Supercycles team wrote in that issue...

Cutting off even one of these chokepoints would potentially knock off more oil from the world market than has ever been done since the Arab oil embargo in 1973. That crisis sent oil prices quadrupling in less than a year.

The Iranian media outlet PressTV suggested that oil prices could jump as much as 80% in the first week after the Strait of Hormuz was closed.

As we wrote in a Digest earlier this month, investors are not positioned for a move higher in energy prices. Traders are the most negative they've been on oil in more than a decade.

If tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, these traders will rush to buy up oil and push prices higher. Higher oil prices would mean higher inflation, too.

Trump already knows this... He posted on Truth Social that "everyone" should keep oil prices down.

We haven't seen those inflationary pressures just yet... After spiking in overnight trading, oil prices fell throughout the rest of the day and ended down 7%.

Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz isn't a done deal... After the proposal from the Iranian parliament, the decision now heads to the country's Supreme National Security Council.

So for now, the Strait remains open. But trade and shipping data firm Kpler said today that at least six ships (including two large crude carriers) have already reversed course to avoid any problems.

As a whole, markets more or less brushed off any concerns over retaliation or any further action from the U.S. (for now). Stocks opened higher, quickly sold off on the news of Iran's attempted strike on the U.S. base, then gained again in the afternoon. All three major indexes finished the day up nearly 1% each.

After all, Iran's notification of the coming attack and President Trump's call for "Peace and Harmony" in the region both indicate de-escalation in the region. That's exactly what investors want to see.

Conflicts highlight the case for gold...

Risk assets like stocks weren't the only ones to rise today. Gold, which is typically seen as a "safe haven" asset, climbed as well. At about $3,400 an ounce, it's within touching distance of its all-time high.

With all the geopolitical tensions so far in 2025, gold is having a banner year. Between inflation, a declining dollar, or gold's position as a store of value, folks are flocking to this precious metal.

It's up more than 25% this year – outperforming the S&P 500 Index by more than 20 percentage points.

And gold funds are on pace to see a record $80 billion in inflows in 2025, according to data from Bank of America. That's nearly double the annual inflows of any other year over the past decade.

All that may seem like it's a good time to take some profits on gold. But that may not be the case.

Gold has room to run...

As our colleague and True Wealth editor Brett Eversole shared in a recent special report, "We're still in the early innings of a major gold bull market."

And the fact that folks are finally piling into gold funds (after outflows from 2021 to 2023 and slight inflows last year) shows we're at the stage in the gold cycle where huge gains happen.

More from Brett...

Gold has been soaring for more than a year. Central banks have driven the rally. We have clearly been moving through the smart money/institutional leg of this boom.

Now, we're transitioning to the next phase... when the public starts to take notice (and the biggest gains can begin).

We're still a long way from investor "euphoria" in the gold market, even if folks are starting to buy up more gold because of geopolitical uncertainty. So the "late innings" of the gold bull market are still to come. As Brett concluded...

That's why gold will move much higher. I expect we'll see $4,000 or even $5,000 an ounce before prices peak.

Paid-up subscribers and Alliance members can read Brett's report right here.

A weight-loss pill on the horizon...

Another story we've long covered is the rise of obesity-fighting drugs. And it looks like another breakthrough development is closer to reality than many people might think. We're talking about a weight-loss pill coming to market...

Our Stansberry Venture Technology editor Dave Lashmet was in Chicago this weekend for the annual meeting of the American Diabetes Association, where drugmaker Eli Lilly (LLY) presented the data from its Phase 3 trial of a daily anti-obesity pill.

As Dave told us about the drug, called orforglipron, upon seeing the results of the trial: "It rocks."

The results showed that the pill could be as effective as injectable GLP-1 drugs like Eli Lilly's Mounjaro and Ozempic from Novo Nordisk (NVO) for weight loss and lowering blood sugar... and possibly cost about half as much to buy and be more readily available.

Here are the details of the trial from Dave...

People entering this trial were new Type 2 diabetics, half women and half men. The group's average age was 53 with a body mass index of 32 and weight around 200 pounds.

On the high dose of the drug (36 milligrams) for 40 weeks, they lost an average of 8% of their body weight, or around 17 pounds. "That's while tapering into the high dose for the first 20 weeks," Dave noted, "and weight loss did not plateau."

As Dave shared with us in an e-mail on Saturday after seeing the data...

This is a once daily pill that you can have with food or drink, any time of day. There were no liver side effects and in fact liver enzymes improved to normal.

Side effects were a bit stronger on 36 milligrams than 12 milligrams, and in many ways 12 milligrams worked great. Either way, the side effects are similar to what we already see in the other GLP-1 approved drugs – all injectables.

This distinction is important because a pill is more comfortable and convenient to take than an injection... and much cheaper.

Dave projects the pill to cost about $15 per day, or $5,000 year without insurance. By contrast, the injectable Ozempic is $1,000 per month, or $12,000 per year. And the addressable market is nearly 100 million Americans who are diabetic or prediabetic.

The pill also doesn't need to be refrigerated as the injectables do before use, so it has a long shelf life. Dave says Eli Lilly is already stockpiling it even before the U.S. Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") approves it.

"This first Phase 3 trial can't and won't lead to FDA approval alone," Dave said. Data from a bigger trial with thousands of patients will be shown in late September in Vienna. "That's the trial that is pivotal," Dave says, "and can lead to FDA approval."

Still, this trial is important, as illustrated by Eli Lilly shares rising more than 1% today... And it's not the only important result Dave saw over the weekend in Chicago. More to come on that tomorrow.

As longtime readers know, Dave has been tracking the obesity epidemic for years...

And, importantly, Dave has positioned subscribers to profit from the breakthrough developments from drugmakers and other breakthrough biotech and tech companies.

We'll always recall a presentation Dave made on the coming weight-loss drug revolution back in March 2020, a few days before COVID-19 shutdowns went into effect, and you can read some past Digests from him on the subject here, here, and here.

He wrote in August 2023 about how Eli Lilly was running the race for a "rare prize" – the pill that we're discussing today, orforglipron. At the time, this drug was still in mid-stage human trials, and he said it could be the "ultimate weight-loss winner."

In 2024, Dave's Venture Technology picks saw an average gain of 22% by year's end, more than double the 9% returns for the benchmark S&P 500. Since launching Venture Technology, 1 in every 3 recommendations Dave has made has doubled or more.

New 52-week highs (as of 6/20/25): Antero Resources (AR), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), BWX Technologies (BWXT), Cisco Systems (CSCO), EQT (EQT), and Skeena Resources (SKE).

In today's mailbag, a thought about the labor market stemming from Dan Ferris' latest Friday essay... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"One thing you guys don't discuss enough is skyrocketing unemployment due to AI. To some extent it has already started but has also just begun, the tip of the iceberg. It will make tariffs look like child's play [and] will have drastic ramifications for entitlement programs down the road." – Subscriber Dennis M.

All the best,

Nick Koziol with Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
June 23, 2025