A Massive Story Almost No One Understands
Doc Eifrig's legacy work... A massive story almost no one understands... The latest read on earnings season... Keep an eye on Apple... Key dates later this month... What led Doc to Stansberry Research...
First things first, we need to share Doc's video with you...
This morning, our colleague and Stansberry Research partner Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig went live with his latest presentation. If you missed it, here is a direct link to a replay.
It's a must-watch video for several reasons I (Corey McLaughlin) will briefly mention. The first is something Doc said early in the event – what he's talking about is as much an opportunity as it is a warning...
I know how ugly these last few months have been in the markets. I know you may be hurting. That you might be focused on just trying to weather out the storm.
But what I'm about to show you is actually a big part of the answer to what's going on – and how you're probably feeling – today.
From there, he got into the details of a story he says is bigger than anything else in the past 40 years, but something that few realize today even though it affects us all. Without giving too much away (we don't want to steal his thunder), Doc said...
What it does involve is a massive story that almost no one understands... Unfolding in the biggest, most important, and most bulletproof sector of our economy.
Among other things, Doc explained how what he's talking about is a sector that famously beats inflation... and why millions of Americans will pretty much have no choice but to patronize a particular set of businesses in the decade ahead.
If you don't already know Doc Eifrig, he's a former Goldman Sachs trader and board-eligible eye surgeon who has been with our company since nearly the beginning. And based on his experience, he said he can all but guarantee that the ideas he's talking about will be obvious to everyone in five years.
That's why he's sharing this message today, so subscribers have the opportunity to take advantage of this trend now and position their wealth and health for a better future. As he said today...
This research will be my legacy. I'm certain it could produce the biggest gains, by far, of my career. I don't think anything in the markets has one-tenth as much potential over the coming decade. Yet showing you that potential is only part of what I want to do.
This is the presentation I've been waiting my entire life to make. It's incredibly exciting for me – and daunting... If you're willing to listen, it can transform your life – in ways that go way, way beyond money.
Click here to hear Doc's message with all the details.
Moving on to the latest from earnings season...
As we've mentioned the past few weeks, we're keeping an eye on second-quarter earnings reports. They'll help us gauge the financials of America's publicly traded companies, and we'll see what their performance might be able to tell us about the economy and how the market is digesting it.
On balance so far, things aren't terrible, though there are some concerning themes...
No doubt, inflation is a big concern for 50 or so companies in the S&P 500 Index that have reported so far. And net profit margins (12.4% on average) are down from the second quarter of 2021... though they're still above their five-year average of 11.2%, according to investing-data service FactSet.
A lot of companies – particularly those that sell in-demand, essential products – have been able to raise their prices to keep profits up. But that could ultimately stress the economy as a whole, since wages aren't growing by a similar percentage.
In general, today's price action (with the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq each up around 3% today) tells us the markets are looking at the early returns from earnings season as a positive.
But remember, the major U.S. indexes are still trading below long-term averages, though the S&P 500 closed a hair above its short-term 50-day moving average today. The Nasdaq is still just below its 50-day average.
Keep an eye on Apple (AAPL)...
One of the more notable stories to emerge from earnings season so far hasn't been an official data release, but a Bloomberg report published yesterday. Citing anonymous sources, it says tech giant Apple plans to slow its hiring and its spending next year to prepare for a potential economic downturn.
From the report...
The decision stems from a move to be more careful during uncertain times, though it isn't a companywide policy, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private. The changes won't affect all teams, and Apple is still planning an aggressive product launch schedule in 2023 that includes a mixed-reality headset, its first major new category since 2015.
I bring this up because Apple typically has an outsized influence on the indexes and market sentiment. It's not only a notable business, but it also makes up 7% of the S&P 500 by market cap and about 12% of the Nasdaq Composite Index. Yeah, that's a lot.
This is why we always say to make sure you really know what you're getting when you buy an index fund, an exchange-traded fund ("ETF") from a particular sector or trend, or individual companies.
Apple shares are up 16% since their most recent low on June 16. After tracking the S&P 500 for most of the year, Apple has outperformed the U.S. benchmark – which is up 7% in the same span – by a considerable margin...
In technical-analysis terms, this is a "divergence" worth tracking to see how the trends go from here. Should Apple shares fall, that could be a catalyst for a move lower for the headline indexes. Alternatively, if Apple keeps outperforming, it could push things higher.
Apple reports earnings on July 28... and the timing is interesting...
That's the day after the Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give the latest of what has been increasingly flimsy and unbelievable commentary on the economy.
That's reason alone to expect volatility...
But Apple also reports the same day the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the "official" second-quarter gross domestic product ("GDP"). As of today, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate is for GDP to decline by 1.6%.
When these factors – a negative quarterly GDP number, a Fed meeting around the same time, and an ongoing earnings season – last converged three months ago, the S&P 500 fell 15% in about a week starting on May 5, the day after a laughable Fed press conference.
On a related note, semiconductors are making headlines again...
Just days before the Senate was expected to meet this week to talk about a $52 billion bill to boost semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S., it just so happened the husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi bought between $1 million and $5 million worth of stock in chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA).
The story has made for easy headlines because of the obvious conflict of interest and the stink of insider trading...
While the trades were not made by Nancy Pelosi herself – they were done by her husband Paul, a real estate and venture-capital investor – it's not hard to draw a link between the pending legislation and the decision of the Pelosi household to "buy."
This isn't a new story...
There are dozens of stocks or semiconductor ETFs that anyone bullish on the sector could trade, but Paul Pelosi apparently loves the upside of Nvidia.
Last year, I wrote about Paul Pelosi's bullishness on this specific chip company... At the time, he had recently traded in and out of Nvidia shares at curious times in trades totaling at least $6.5 million.
And as I also wrote in the September 13, 2021 Digest, the behavior didn't sit well with us...
Could members of Congress or their families (an easy way to get around saying they are actually doing the trading) simply think these companies are a good place to park their money? Sure. But for anyone who is not in Congress, it makes you wonder what they know that everyday investors don't...
We still don't like it... and it made us think in a few ways.
For one, we thought about how the STOCK Act of 2012 – which requires after-the-fact investing disclosures from members of Congress or their families – doesn't prevent politicians from trading off non-public information. It's too easy...
Since then, there has been some talk of limiting or banning members of Congress from actively trading while holding office. But that agenda fizzled out... As you might imagine, not everyone in Congress was a supporter.
And this latest round of Paul Pelosi getting bullish on Nvidia got us thinking again...
If the husband of the speaker of the House is betting on a leading chipmaker stock, right as related legislation was presumably being discussed by his wife and other members of Congress, let's take this as information... There's hope for the bill.
Or, at the very least, it's going to be in the news cycle for a bit.
So... thanks, Paul, for the heads up again. This bill – which would hand billions in government support and tax breaks to the semiconductor industry and boost the outlooks of companies like Intel (INTC) – has been dragging through the Senate and House for about a year.
That's more than long enough to be forgotten in D.C., but it's still alive...
This reminds us of something else Doc talked about in his presentation today...
If nothing else, it's worth tuning in to hear the details Doc shared about his fascinating background and life experience.
This is the first time I heard the full story of how Doc ended up writing for Stansberry Research after a career path that included getting his MBA... working on Wall Street... and then going to medical school.
You might be familiar with Doc's feelings about Wall Street... He left his job at Goldman Sachs because he got sick and tired of the conflicts of interest he saw up close while working in the financial world.
His father and brother were both doctors. Doc saw it as a noble profession, so he decided to pursue that instead. But he soon found similar disappointment in medicine, where he couldn't ignore the ills of the system that trained America's future doctors...
Like Wall Street, as I stepped further into this system that's supposed to help people... maybe you can guess what happened... I discovered medicine was every bit as corrupt and flawed as Wall Street.
Doc became a board-eligible eye surgeon, and he said he could have been a good doctor and even gotten rich. But as he explained in his video today...
I knew I'd have to play ball with an incredibly broken and corrupt system. And I couldn't do it, no matter how much money I might be giving up.
Around that time, my dear friend [Stansberry Research founder] Porter Stansberry convinced me I could have 100 times more impact by talking directly to you – with NO censorship... no hospital board to report to... no toxic institution closing ranks around its bad actors.
The rest has been history and a benefit for hundreds of thousands of readers... In 2009, Doc started writing a research letter called Retirement Millionaire... and he also publishes the popular free daily letter, the Health & Wealth Bulletin.
We see the notes from folks consistently thanking Doc for his financial and health advice, as he is a rare independent expert in both fields.
Case in point... in his video today, Doc shared a story about how he spotted a bump on Porter's neck and urged him to get it checked out. It turned out to be melanoma. They caught it early enough to save him.
As Doc explained, he brings the same approach to his work every day. I can attest...
Folks who know me appreciate that I won't hold back. I do the right thing whenever I can.
And he says along his whole journey – including now as an editor and writer – he always knew the moment that he's telling people about today was coming. And yet, folks today still are not talking about it... to their detriment.
That's why even in the middle of a crashing market... and ongoing war... Doc sat down to deliver the presentation he has been waiting his entire life for – for free. Again, if you missed it this morning, click here to hear all the details now.
And Stansberry Alliance partners, you are more than welcome to watch the presentation from Doc... and you can also check out all of the brand-new research he is talking about here. It is included with your membership, of course, at no extra cost.
Finding Diamonds in the 'Scrap Heap'
Stansberry Venture Value editor Bryan Beach joins Dan Ferris on this week's episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour... and they talk about how Bryan hunts for little-known gems in the market and why he's eyeing up the "SPAC scrap heap" today...
Click here to listen to this episode right now. And to catch all of the podcasts and videos from the Stansberry Research team, be sure to visit our Stansberry Investor platform anytime.
New 52-week highs (as of 7/18/22): Centene (CNC).
In today's mailbag, feedback on yesterday's Digest, where we talked about Russian energy company Gazprom possibly shutting off natural gas supplies to Europe... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
"Force majeure?!?! More like 'Force Manure'. But, fret naught... as our Commander in Chief tapped the Saudis as our friend in need. Perhaps Europe has a similar friend in need to counteract this pending 'Force Majeure'. Where's my shovel?" – Paid-up subscriber Tim F.
All the best,