A Great Year Ahead? At Least Think About It

An exercise in expecting the unexpected... A normal year would be nice... A great year ahead? At least think about it... Be selfish, gosh darn it... A blueprint for the best investing year ever... The secret to making money in 2023...

What are investors unprepared for in the new year?...

I (Corey McLaughlin) was recently asked to come up with a list of answers to this question for an upcoming episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour podcast with my friend and regular Friday Digest essayist Dan Ferris.

The episode will air just into the new year, as we look ahead to the next 12 months. Of course, nobody can know for sure what's going to happen in the future. But really thinking about what might happen is a great exercise for anyone with money in the markets.

Dan has done this on the podcast, for the benefit of listeners, for years, and I've been fortunate to join him on the Investor Hour in recent months to bring whatever insights I can to the table. So here I am, pondering potential surprises for 2023.

This exercise has really made me think...

My first thought was: a 'normal' year...

Nobody's expecting us to get back to normal, even by post-pandemic standards.

Here's what I'd mean by a "normal" year... By the end of 2023, the S&P 500 Index's returns would be close to their long-term average of around 10%, except with big swaths of volatility given the uncertainties around the Federal Reserve's rate-hike plans.

Now, "average" returns aren't really what we're after. But I don't think many people are expecting a return to "normal" in the markets, or anywhere in life. Maybe people are hoping for normal, though...

So, maybe an average year fits the bill of a surprise and maybe it doesn't. But to me, the spirit of the exercise is to raise a possibility that people definitely aren't prepared for... so we can put a bug in your ear about it. So here it is...

Are you ready to have a great year in 2023?...

My sense is optimism in the USA – and the markets – might be near all-time lows. We're all still figuring out the lasting effects of a once-in-a-century pandemic, like the financial costs... the toll on our health... and everything else that came of it.

Personally, I see more economic trouble ahead...

The biggest threat is recession...

Folks have been expecting a recession since the Fed started hiking rates back in March to fight inflation. Given the dire state of the European economy and the increased spread of COVID-19 in China, the risk is higher than ever.

But just because trouble might be ahead doesn't mean you should sell every investable asset you own right now... Quite the contrary.

If you have the means, as we've said recently, this is the time to go to work and find great buying opportunities. With stocks down 20% and bonds getting crushed in 2022, the opportunities are already there.

And in a recession, folks with capital on hand will have even more assets to scoop up on the cheap.

So, that's the first way to prepare for a potentially great 2023... having money to put to work, by protecting what you have.

In other words, be friends with cash or cash-like investments again – like short-term Treasurys paying around 4% annual interest – just like we preached at the start of this year. It's not the coolest thing to say, but it works in a bear market.

Beyond that, when thinking about how best to grow your money ahead, don't dwell on what would be a great year for the vague, disembodied "markets." Focus on what would be a great year for you.

You (or those who depend on you as a source of wealth).

No one else.

Think selfishly, gosh darn it...

A lot of this might be "old hat" to longtime readers or sound too conceptual, but it's important. I'm not saying you need to screw over your neighbor to get ahead... just to make sure your financial decisions are tailored to your personal goals and needs.

Are you a year out from retirement and can't afford another 20% haircut in your nest egg? Cash might be even more of your friend...

But are you on the younger side of things with years or decades in front of you before you even think about retiring?

Let's not forget about the power of compounding... To harness it, you can't be out of the market in down times. If anything, you'd want to be buying more shares of high-quality businesses that will reward you with price appreciation when good times return and dividend payments while you wait.

Alternatively, are you interested in making short-term trades in what could be a volatile market this year? You may want to try some of our trading services, like Doc Eifrig's Retirement Trader and Advanced Options, Greg Diamond's Ten Stock Trader, or Chris Igou's DailyWealth Trader.

Here's what I'm getting at... Before you blindly throw money "all in" to the market once again because it looks like inflation has peaked... or because some people might not think a recession is coming... or whatever the latest news of the day is... pause for a moment.

What you want to do with your money is what matters...

Maybe your goal is to cover some or all of your expenses with dividend income... Maybe you want to bet on small-cap stocks with part of your portfolio... Maybe you'd like a 20% return... Maybe you definitely don't want to risk losing more than 10% on any position.

Your own expenses and income, how much you can invest, and what potential downside you're willing to risk while you chase gains... these are personal questions.

The answers might come from any number of places. I can't do that for you.

But once you've thought about these things, it's time to have your great year.

Whatever your goals, here are a few ideas that might be worth keeping in mind.

1. Don't ignore the possibility of a recession. Earnings expectations don't seem to reflect it yet.
2. The Fed could keep raising rates without bringing inflation back to "normal."
3. Volatility is likely to continue.

There's another big idea I've heard from lots of the editors and analysts on our staff... No matter your strategy, not all sectors and stocks will be created equal in the 12 months ahead.

In the stimulus-fueled market of the second half of 2020 and early part of 2021, upwards of 90% of stocks were trading above their long-term averages. Those days are long gone. Some stocks are down 80% over the past year. Others are up 100%.

One way to do it...

As I said yesterday, the key in this volatile market is putting the odds in your favor to buy the right names and – just as important – let go of the bad ones. This will be the secret to making money in 2023.

There are many ways to do this. But one of the best ways for times like these is a system created by Marc Chaikin – founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics – and used by some of the biggest names on Wall Street.

Last week, Marc went live with a new presentation with what he's thinking about heading into 2023... and why he believes individual investors with the right tools and research can have a great year. As he said...

There is not only a much better way to protect your wealth in 2023, but a way to potentially double or triple your money on the rare investments that can absolutely skyrocket during moments just like this one.

That's the good news.

We have a very clear, very straightforward way for you to position yourself to see extraordinary potential profits in 2023. In fact, if you follow this exact blueprint, I predict 2023 could go down as the best investing year of your life, to date.

I can't give away all the details here, but this is a message worth hearing.

Marc has five decades of investing experience. He outlined how his system has picked big winners in previous Federal Reserve rate-hike cycles... how it gave "bullish" signals on nine of the top 10 stocks of 2021... and his secret for protecting a portfolio from massive losses.

No matter your specific goals, these are big ideas worth considering in pursuit of a great year. Go ahead, at least think about it. And to hear Marc's full message and the moves he suggests you make to set yourself up for success in 2023, click here.

Just for tuning in, you'll also get Marc's top stock recommendation for 2023... and his No. 1 stock to avoid... all for free. Plus, you have a chance to gain access to his top 10 stocks to buy and sell before New Year's Day.

And stay tuned for more on the Investor Hour podcast...

I'm still working on my list of potential surprises for 2023... and Dan and I are getting together to talk about them soon. A "normal" year might make the cut, or it might not. But having a great year definitely will.

If you have your own ideas, I'd love to hear them at feedback@stansberryresearch.com... and be sure to check out the Stansberry Investor Hour wherever you get your podcasts or in the "media" section of StansberryResearch.com right here.

Our latest episode is below...

New 52-week highs (as of 12/19/22): Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) and short position in Capital One Financial (COF).

In today's mailbag, feedback on yesterday's Digest that touched on the Federal Reserve, interest-rate hikes, and inflation... and a response to a reader comment from Thursday's Digest... As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"Lots of stuff will be insolvent with 5% interest, including the U.S. government, without the Fed taking most or all of the new issues, controlling Treasury bond yields... Inflation has never been controlled by an insolvent government. Don't expect it to be. Are we that history dumb?

"Moving manufacturing away from China is massively inflationary, the bid-ask for labor will follow those price increases. How does the Fed control that? They can't. Children buckle up, the road will be rough." – Paid-up subscriber Bruce G.

"I agree with Michael D. [in Thursday's mailbag] about most of the nation's ills being due to excessive debt. However, there's an even scarier thing going on that coupled with the debt could end life as we know it as investors. That is the current dismal state of our education system. Gone are the business ethics and logic courses and in their place are the 'fake it till you make it' and 'the only thing that matters is making a profit no matter what the risk' programs.

"Sooner or later the old school leaders will retire and in their place will be the people with a shelf full of participation trophy's and a Master of Business Annihilation degree who think they're smarter than everybody else. [Sam Bankman-Fried] is the poster boy of this bunch who I call Moes. You see, with the Three Stooges, Larry and Curly recognized the fact that they were incompetent imbeciles. But Moe on the other hand not only didn't recognize he was also an incompetent imbecile, but in fact thought he was the smartest person on earth... in fact he thought he was so smart, he could solve problems that didn't exist and routinely conjured some up just to prove it.

"Unfortunately our political parties are already rife with Moes, but can you imagine a world where that combines with all the business leaders also being Moes? Unless we can somehow right this listing ship I predict civilization as we know it will cease to exist... just hopefully not in my lifetime." – Paid-up subscriber B.W.

All the best,

Corey McLaughlin
Baltimore, Maryland
December 20, 2022