Big News on the 'Melt Up'

Big news on the 'Melt Up'... Investors are finally getting bullish again... Time for a pause?... Steve's favorite 'New China' recommendation is back in the headlines... How to see this year's Stansberry Las Vegas conference, essentially for FREE...

Sjug has been predicting it for years...

Longtime Digest readers know our colleague Steve Sjuggerud was among the first analysts anywhere to turn bullish on stocks back in early 2009. He was one of the few who remained consistently bullish over the past eight years. And he has been virtually alone this year in predicting that the rally will continue further.

In short, no one has "called" this bull market better than Steve.

Again and again, he has predicted that the long bull market in stocks won't end until individual investors finally become euphoric about stocks again. As he reminded readers in his free DailyWealth e-letter last summer...

YOU KNOW WHAT A TOP FEELS LIKE. You went through one in the real estate boom in 2006-2008... At the top in real estate...

• EVERYONE was optimistic about house prices. Nobody was cautious. No one even thought that there was even any downside risk. (People felt that way about dot-com stocks in 1999, too.)

• EVERYONE was "in" – and heck, if you weren't "in," you wanted in!

• EVERYONE was talking about real estate at cocktail parties, sharing their "can't lose" strategies.

Everyone thought they had their own spin on it... They thought they had their own unique way of making money that was somehow special to them. They didn't realize that, whether they were "flipping" houses or "developing" houses, all the strategies were essentially the same – in that they all relied on higher and higher asset prices to succeed. THAT is what a top looks like. THAT is what a top feels like...

So let me ask you, does this feel like a top in stock prices? Is everyone optimistic about stock prices? Is everyone "in"? Is everyone talking about their "can't lose" stock strategies at cocktail parties?

If you can't answer yes, then this is not a top. This is not a moment like the one we had with tech stocks in 1999, or real estate in 2006-2008.

Of course, this hasn't been a popular stance...

Stocks have been "climbing a wall of worry" for much of the past eight and a half years.

The 2008-2009 financial crisis left many individual investors reeling. They've been quick to turn downright bearish at the first sign of trouble ever since. Many analysts have openly doubted whether investors would ever become wildly bullish again.

But now we're finally beginning to see the first signs that Steve's prediction is coming true. Investors are actually getting excited about stocks again for the first time in more than a decade. As polling and analytics firm Gallup reports...

A new surge of optimism among U.S. investors has pushed the Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index to its highest level since September 2000. The index, after rising in every quarter since the start of 2016, leveled off in the second quarter at +124 before rising to its current +138 in the third quarter.

The latest boost in optimism pushes the index almost 100 points higher than the +40 score measured in February 2016. The 98-point hike over the past 18 months is the largest increase in the 20-year history of the index that is not a rebound immediately after a major drop in optimism.

The results come from a July 28-Aug. 6 Wells Fargo/Gallup Investor and Retirement Optimism Index survey of U.S. investors with $10,000 or more invested in stocks, bonds or mutual funds... One of the key factors in the robust third-quarter index is investors' growing confidence in the stock market.

Now, some of the more bearish among you are likely to point to the obvious...

This index is at highs not seen since the dot-com bubble – the last stock market "Melt Up" – peaked in 2000. That is true... But the measure had previously gone even higher.

According to Gallup data, this index first passed this same level in 1998. It peaked two years later at a mind-boggling record of 178.

In other words, during the previous Melt Up, the current level of optimism didn't mark a top... It marked the beginning of the most explosive final "inning" of the rally.

There are never any guarantees in the market... But if Steve is right about the Melt Up – and all of his other indicators continue to give the "all clear" today – then the biggest gains of this bull market could still be ahead.

Speaking of Steve's big calls...

His favorite 'New China' recommendation continues to make financial headlines.

If you've been with us for long, you know Tencent (TCEHY) – along with fellow Chinese tech giant Alibaba (BABA) – is leading a dramatic online revolution in China.

These companies already dominate huge swaths of the modern Chinese economy. But their reach is quickly expanding outside the country, too. As the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday...

Silicon Valley is home to the world's most influential consumer-tech firms, but China's online corporate titans are way ahead in the race to build mobile-payment services in many of the world's fastest-growing consumer markets.

China's digital-payments market, by far the world's largest, is dominated by e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and social-media champ Tencent Holdings Ltd. Now the two are imparting money and know-how to mobile-money startups in other Asian markets, from Indonesia to India...

In China, QR codes are used widely by smartphone owners to pay bills and make purchases in shops and at vending machines – contributing to a $9 trillion mobile-payment market last year, according to iResearch. That is almost 90 times the size of the U.S. mobile-payment market of $112 billion, according to data from research firm Forrester.

Two payment platforms – Alibaba-backed Alipay and Tencent's Tenpay – handle some 90% of China's online payments by transaction value, iResearch says. As China's market matures, Alibaba and Tencent are chasing growth overseas, helping local startups in emerging markets run mobile-money systems that don't require plastic.

Steve's True Wealth China Opportunities subscribers are up a remarkable 66% on Tencent since last September. But Steve remains bullish today... He believes Tencent still has triple-digit upside over the next several years.

Don't miss the 'next Tencent'...

True Wealth China Opportunities subscribers were the first to receive his detailed analysis on Tencent last September. But they weren't the only readers who had the chance to make a killing...

Just two weeks later, one small group of Stansberry Research subscribers also received access to this information... at just a fraction of the normal $3,000-per-year subscription cost.

You see, Steve also shared his Tencent research live from the stage of last year's Stansberry Conference in Las Vegas... and attendees had the chance to buy shares at essentially the same price as his elite China Opportunities subscribers.

And this was just one of several world-class investment ideas they heard from an incredible list of presenters during the event... any one of which could've paid for the cost of attendance many times over.

In short, if you aren't attending the Stansberry Las Vegas Conference, you're missing out on one of the greatest values we offer. Nowhere else can you get access to so many of the best ideas from Stansberry Research analysts and other world-class investors for such a low price.

This year's event kicks off on Wednesday...

Unfortunately, it's too late for you to attend in person. Tickets went faster than ever this year... We sold out in August.

But it's not too late to see every presentation from both days of the event – from the comfort of your own home – via our "Online All-Access Pass."

And to give every interested Stansberry Research subscriber an opportunity to attend, we've put together the best deal we've ever offered... It's a way to "live stream" the entire event, essentially for FREE. Click here for the details.

New 52-week highs (as of 9/22/17): Allianz (AZSEY), Boeing (BA), Baidu (BIDU), Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund (CAF), CME Group (CME), iShares MSCI Italy Capped Fund (EWI), Barclays ETN+ FI Enhanced Europe 50 Fund (FEEU), Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), iShares Core S&P Small-Cap Fund (IJR), ETFMG Prime Mobile Payments Fund (IPAY), iShares U.S. Aerospace and Defense Fund (ITA), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Monsanto (MON), NVR (NVR), PNC Financial Warrants (PNC-WT), Sanofi (SNY), and short position in GGP (GGP).

In today's mailbag... Porter's Friday Digest clearly struck a nerve. What did you think? Let us know at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"Porter, I have been a subscriber for quite a few years and this is the most profound Friday Digest I have ever read. You have laid out perfectly trouble is just beginning and 1971 will look like a dance in the park when this ends. Keep up the excellent work." – Paid-up subscriber Mitch B.

"I hated this essay. I hope Porter's wrong, but I have a feeling he's right. I do remember the riots in the seventies. Even in the relative safety of Minneapolis, those were tough times. Porter says to prepare but I don't know how we can. I have food storage and some precious metals (although not enough) but those are not answers to violence and heartache. I hope he's wrong, but he probably isn't." – Paid-up subscriber Frank H.

"With regard to your comments re: The Lottery... Chilling, but exactly what I've been wondering myself for several years of watching loans be made to the least credit worthy of society. I also agree about the fact that the most volatile segment of society is involved – twenty something testosterone enraged single males... with nothing to lose. As has been said, the most dangerous thing to a civilized society is a man with nothing to lose. Once they've revolted and cleared their debt, what is there to stop them from claiming more, by whatever means – political, social, or economical – as possible..." – Paid-up subscriber Scott B.

"Being quick and unafraid to offer 'constructive criticism' let me quickly compliment you on the Digest. I'm 110% in agreement and know the outcome, as you describe it, is coming... sooner or later. While I'm in the neutral camp, it's good to see material like this... keeps us honest and on our defensive toes. When this scenario begins to unfold it's going to be ugly." – Paid-up subscriber RLB

"I am completely in agreement with Porter on the jubilee. We have watched the violent protesters (rioters) be allowed to pass undisturbed from city to city and burn entire neighborhoods to do whatever they want without repercussion. I knew we were past the point of no return when the administration of the last 8 yrs. always faulted the people who were payed to protect and serve and didn't even give lip service to punishment of the guilty... You (Porter) opened my eyes to a time line I could feel but couldn't articulate. Now I can. Thank you." – Paid-up Stansberry Alliance member Steve J.

"We may yet see blood in our streets: the have-nots forcibly taking from those who have more, (or from whomever if they need it) is a recurring theme in history. Class warfare against the rich is a convenient political tool and it's back once again. And it may mean a new political order will arise as it did in Europe, Asia, South America and Africa. You may want to keep your powder dry. We live in troubling times. Justice is dying rapidly through redefinition of right and wrong. Rioters and looters always have justifications for violence and breaking the law, doing unto others what they wouldn't approve of being done to themselves. And the sworn lawmen won't be around, although martial law and brute force may reign." – Paid-up subscriber Don Showalter

Regards,

Justin Brill
Baltimore, Maryland
September 25, 2017