It could never happen here

"It could never happen here"... That's the refrain we hear from our friends and colleagues. They say it after we've gone over all of the numbers involved in the government's financial position and explained our out-of-consensus view that the U.S. is not only heading toward a period of massive inflation, but such an outcome has long since ceased to be avoidable. People respond – "Oh, that could never happen here." – in the same way they repeat a catechism.

We don't think our view is shocking or even surprising. Much like with our GM analysis (we predicted bankruptcy as early as 2005), when you simply look at the numbers, the outcome is unavoidable.

And then there's history. Not a single brand of paper money has ever lasted. Or you might say, in all of recorded human history, gold remains undefeated. We expect that trend to continue. Likewise, we can't recall any nation that ever repaid its debts (in sound money) once they'd grown to 100% of GDP. And watching our neighbors "strategically" defaulting on their mortgages in record numbers, we see no reason to expect Americans will prove to be any more honest about their government's obligations.

Since America isn't the first powerful democracy to default through inflation, it may pay for investors to be familiar with the most famous such event...

In 1915, just after World War I began, you could exchange 4.2 German marks for one U.S. dollar – and that was when the U.S. dollar was still backed by gold. As you know, Germany lost the war. Its people were literally starving by the end, thanks to the British blockade. With no alternative except starvation and annihilation, Germany accepted an armistice that demanded $12.5 billion in reparations. The debt was equal to 100% of Germany's GDP prior to the war. At the time, the exchange rate stood at 65 marks to the dollar, a devaluation of roughly 95%. Most people believe Germany's hyperinflation was caused by this war debt. Not exactly.

After the war, Germany was broke... That's true. But the mark was cheap. It seemed like a terrific investment opportunity. Most people believed Germany would find a way to finance its debts. We imagine foreign investors at the time said, "Oh, hyperinflation could never happen in Germany..." And so speculators pumped another $2 billion of additional credit into Germany. Then came trouble. Germany's main creditor (France) refused to renegotiate the terms of the armistice. And the German people lost confidence in their own government. The people didn't want to pay the debts. Assassinations began to occur, most notably the murder of Walther Rathenau – the foreign minister. Investors lost confidence in the country. They abandoned the mark.

German prices rose fortyfold in 1922. The mark fell from 190 to 7,600 to the dollar. When Germany failed to make a foreign debt payment in 1923, 40,000 French and Belgian troops invaded. To appease its creditors, the German government printed more money. It issued 17 trillion marks in 1923 (compared to 1 trillion in 1922). By August 1923, a dollar was worth 620,000 marks. By early November 1923, the exchange rate hit 630 billion to one.

Could something like this happen in the U.S.? Not exactly. We doubt, for example, China will ever attempt to invade the U.S. to force debt repayment. But we think what will likely happen could easily be worse than Weimar Germany. You see, the mark wasn't the foundation of the world's economy. Today, more than 60% of all bank reserves around the world are U.S. Treasury obligations. As the U.S. continues to run massive annual deficits and as the Fed engages in "quantitative easing," the world's supply of money is growing, by large amounts. Sooner or later, people holding paper money of every variety, not just Uncle Sam's, will come to doubt its most important quality – the stability of its exchange value. The resulting massive inflation will not merely strike the U.S., but the entire world.

From today's Wall Street Journal:

WASHINGTON—The Supreme Court ruled for the first time that gun possession is fundamental to American freedom, giving federal judges the power to strike down state and local weapons laws for violating the Second Amendment...

We wonder what Constitution those judges have been reading. Because the Constitution we've read clearly states under the Second Amendment, "[T]he right of the people to keep and bear Arms shall not be infringed."

Despite the Second Amendment's clear message, three justices dissented.

Justice Stephen Breyer, in a dissent joined by justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sonia Sotomayor, said the majority ruling misinterpreted history. "[N]othing in 18th-, 19th-, 20th-, or 21st-century history shows a consensus that the right to private armed self-defense…is 'deeply rooted in this nation's history or tradition' or is otherwise 'fundamental,' " Justice Breyer wrote.

We would ask what consensus has to do with it? The Supreme Court's job is to read and interpret the Constitution... "The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed" seems pretty clear to us.

In a speech to the CFA Institute in Boston last month, short-selling whiz Jim Chanos explained the four best areas to look for short sale opportunities:

1) Booms that go bust
2) Consumer fads
3) Technological obsolescence
4) Structurally-flawed accounting

You may recall Porter's February issue of Stansberry's Investment Advisory, where he explained where he looks for short ideas (his list is similar to Chanos'):

To sell stocks short, you need to know the three basic approaches. First, you look for frauds. The second approach is to pick out overly indebted firms, like General Electric. These are probably my favorite situations in all of finance. The last category of stocks you should sell short [are] companies whose business model has disappeared because of technological innovation. – Porter Stansberry, February 2010, Stansberry's Investment Advisory

In the same issue, Porter recommended selling short the two leading hard-drive manufacturers, Seagate Technology (STX) and Western Digital (WDC). He believes so-called "cloud computing" and flash memory will prove hard drives obsolete.

He's up 32% and 27% on his Seagate and Western Digital shorts, respectively, in four months. In total, Porter is up on all but one of his seven short recommendations. And his latest short recommendation, from the June issue, will soar as Europe's fiscal troubles continue. To learn more about Stansberry's Investment Advisory, click here...

Our friend Whitney Tilson sent around this great video of two guys discussing the European debt situation... Hilarious! Watch it here.

The world's largest publicly traded company, ExxonMobil, is down nearly 1% to a two-year low today. Meanwhile, as you'll see below, smaller gold and silver companies are hitting new highs. This is unusual because Exxon is viewed as one of the safest stocks in the world... And gold and silver miners are undoubtedly more speculative. While we don't know exactly why Exxon is falling, we'd guess it's because the numerous large owners of the stock are paring their positions in the face of mounting global uncertainty. Also, according to Dan Ferris, the dilution from the XTO takeover is setting in. And they're putting that money into silver and gold. In other words, investors see precious metals as the only safe play right now.

We tend to agree. That's why we're currently giving our subscribers a free copy of our Gold Bible – a collection of our best research and the opinions of the world's best gold experts. If you're interested in precious metals, we'd encourage you to read our new Gold Bible. To learn how you can get your free copy, click here...

New highs: Eldorado Gold (EGO), Silver Wheaton (SLW), Enzon Pharmaceuticals (ENZN).

One of our subscribers used our recommended trade to make HUGE money. Kudos... feedback@stansberryresearch.com.

"You wrote, 'Congress expects to present this bill to Obama on July 4. And you can be sure he'll fire up the teleprompter to tell America how he "changed Wall Street forever" and "empowered Main Street." In reality, nothing will change.'

"I disagree. Things will change, but they are almost certain not to improve. Obama ran on a platform of 'Change you can believe in, ' but you notice that he never seems to mention improvement. Improvement is a small subset of change, and one that is difficult to accomplish. And sure enough, I can't see a single change that he has effected that would qualify as an improvement. Bush was certainly bad, disastrous even. But the downward path has steepened and gotten a lot rougher under Obama.

"I have come to the conclusion that we are past the point where we can reform this nation to a state of greatness and freedom. If that is to happen, it will only happen after the present complex of bureaucracy, regulation, taxation, funny money, and tyranny collapses under its own weight and we start from nothing and build it up again from scratch. A lot of people will die when this happens, since they have forgotten how to care for themselves, but those who remain and do the building will better understand the mistakes and forces that have brought us down." – Paid-up subscriber Gordon Foreman

Goldsmith comment: Sure, things will change... but not much. The new legislation has loopholes galore, which Wall Street's white-shoe lawyers are busy exploiting. And we agree on the fact that things won't improve.

"I'm new to Stansberry Research and have a question about trailing stops. I've checked the FAQ page, but one question that isn't addressed is HOW to adequately monitor all the securities in one's portfolio. For example, as an Alliance subscriber if I attempt to follow the portfolios of even some of the Stansberry advisories there could easily be a couple of dozen or more stocks on my radar to watch. To monitor all these and calculate a 25% trailing stop looks like almost a full-time profession! Is there a simpler way to do this, if you're invested in a substantial number of Stansberry recommendations?" – Paid-up subscriber Toby  

Goldsmith comment: We recommend you use an automatic tracking service, like TradeStops. You can also track your portfolio in Excel, using a real-time tracking program like XLQ.

"I was looking at the credit given to Matt Badiali in Friday's Digest for his pick of SLW last year. I actually established my position on 12-2-08, based on a couple of mentions earlier in the year by Sean Goldsmith and a 12-2-08 mention by Jeff Clark at an entry price of $3.14/share.

"As I have mentioned in previous correspondence, I do not blindly invest in every recommendation but do use them as a GREAT starting point for my own due dilligence. Along the way with this position, I sold some $10 puts, that paid me $3.00 and expired worthless, leaving me with $0.14/share in the position. Based on my inital investment, I am now up 579.93% on this investment and, I guess, about 15,000% on the actual $0.14/share that I left in the stock after selling the naked puts.

"Not bad for 19 months and taking the time to read all of the newsletters my Alliance membership provides and taking the time to add a bit of my own analysis. Just so you know, a few years back when I purchased my Alliance membership for, I think, $6,500, I really agonized over whether I could afford it and the real value; it has certainly been a decision I have never regretted and one that has been enormously profitable. While Stansberry and Associates provides top quality research at an amazingly low price, I always take some credit for the positive investment results I achieve and all of the blame when I lose as I fully understand that I am the only one who makes the final decision as to when to allocate capital and when to remove it from the table. I would strongly encourage everyone to apply that philosophy to their decisions regarding investments for their own accounts." – Paid-up subscriber Ken McGaha

Goldsmith comment: Thanks for the note, Ken. We're always happy when our subscribers do better than expected.

Regards,

Sean Goldsmith and Porter Stansberry
Baltimore, Maryland
June 28, 2010

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